Copom Opens Today with IPCA Above Target Ceiling for First Time — Terminal Selic Revised Up to 13%, Focus at 4.80% — Maduro Trial: Hugo “El Pollo” Carvajal Emerges as Star Witness in New York — Cuba Rejects Trump Ultimatum on Political Prisoners, Deadline Expired Friday — Mexico March Exports Surge on Electronics Manufacturing Boom — BTG/Nexus Poll: Flávio 46% vs Lula 45% in Runoff, Caiado Emerges as Third Force — Brazil Agribusiness Posts Record Q1 as China Crude Exports Nearly Double — Colombia Invamer: Cepeda 44%, Valencia 20%, De la Espriella 18% After Cauca Massacre — US Modifies Sanctions for Maduro Defence Lawyers — Petro and Delcy Agree Border Security Pact in Caracas
Executive Summary
The Big Picture: Today’s Latin American Pulse opens with the most consequential central bank week of 2026. Brazil’s Copom begins its two-day meeting today with the Selic at 14.75% and the Focus IPCA forecast at 4.80% — above the 4.50% target ceiling for the first time this cycle, after seven consecutive weekly upgrades driven by the Hormuz oil shock. The terminal Selic for year-end has been revised up from 12.50% to 13.00%, signalling that the market sees significantly less room for cuts than it did before the war. The consensus is a cautious 25 bps cut to 14.50%, but the forward guidance for June — or the absence of it — will be the real market-moving signal. Wednesday’s decision arrives under $107 Brent, an unresolved US-Iran standoff after Tehran sent a new peace proposal decoupling Hormuz from the nuclear question, and Trump’s cancellation of the Pakistan delegation that was supposed to receive it. This is part of The Rio Times‘ comprehensive coverage of Latin American financial markets and economic developments.
In New York, the Maduro narcotrafficking trial received its most significant development since the former president’s capture: Hugo “El Pollo” Carvajal — the ex-military intelligence chief who served as Maduro’s most senior security official before defecting — has emerged as a potential star witness for the prosecution. In Havana, the Trump administration’s two-week ultimatum for the release of political prisoners expired Friday with no compliance — Cuba’s UN ambassador declared that detainee issues are “not on the negotiation table,” while the State Department warned Havana has “a small window to make a deal.”
Across the hemisphere, election dynamics are shifting. A new BTG/Nexus poll places Flávio Bolsonaro at 46% against Lula’s 45% in a simulated October runoff — the first numerical reversal — while Goiás governor Ronaldo Caiado emerges as a third-force candidate. In Colombia, Invamer polling shows Cepeda consolidating at 44% after the Cauca massacre, with Valencia at 20% and De la Espriella at 18%. And Brazil’s agribusiness sector posted a record Q1 as crude exports to China nearly doubled — the war’s unintended gift to the hemisphere’s largest economy.
Copom Opens Today — IPCA Above Target Ceiling, Terminal Selic at 13%
Mon-Tue Apr 28-29: Selic at 14.75%; Focus IPCA 2026 now 4.80% (7th weekly upgrade, above 4.50% ceiling); terminal Selic revised 12.50%→13.00%; XP raised IPCA forecast 3.8%→4.8%, Selic floor 12.75%→13.50%; Santander/BofA: 25bps cut; Goldman: next cut may wait until September; no forward guidance expected for June; Brent $107; BTG raised trade surplus forecast to $90B; Brazilian crude exports to China +94% value, +122% volume in Q1; Hormuz Islamabad talks stalled after Trump cancelled delegation
What Happened
- —The Copom opens its April meeting today under the most conflicted set of signals since the war began. The Focus survey’s IPCA forecast has climbed for seven consecutive weeks to 4.80% — breaching the 4.50% upper tolerance ceiling for the first time this cycle. XP revised its full-year inflation projection from 3.8% to 4.8% and raised its Selic floor from 12.75% to 13.50%, warning that “the supply shock in an economy operating above potential requires a monetary policy response.” The terminal Selic consensus has jumped from 12.50% to 13.00%, implying far less room for cuts than the market envisioned before the Hormuz crisis. Yet the case for continued easing remains: Brazil is a net oil exporter benefiting from elevated crude prices, the real has strengthened on carry-trade inflows, and BTG Pactual raised its trade surplus forecast to $90 billion — with crude exports to China nearly doubling in Q1 (+94% in value, +122% in volume). The consensus is a 25 bps cut to 14.50% (roughly 55% probability), with a hold at 40% and a deeper 50 bps cut at 5%. The real question is June: most desks (Santander, BofA) expect no forward guidance, leaving the next meeting entirely data-dependent — and oil-dependent. As detailed in our inflation guide, the Copom’s “calibration” cycle now faces its first real test of credibility.
RISK: ELEVATED
Maduro Trial: “El Pollo” Carvajal Emerges as Star Witness
Hugo Carvajal — former head of Venezuela’s military intelligence (DGCIM) under Chávez and Maduro, extradited to US in 2023 — reportedly cooperating with prosecutors in narcotrafficking case against Maduro and Cilia Flores in New York; Carvajal served as Maduro’s most senior security official before defecting in 2019; has direct knowledge of PDVSA narco-logistics, Hezbollah financial networks, and cartel cooperation; US last week modified sanctions to allow Venezuela’s government to pay Maduro’s defence lawyers — removing obstacle that threatened to derail trial
What Happened
- —CNN en Español reported that Hugo Carvajal — known as “El Pollo,” the former head of Venezuela’s military counterintelligence directorate (DGCIM) who served under both Chávez and Maduro before defecting in 2019 — has emerged as a potential star witness in the New York narcotrafficking trial of Nicolás Maduro and his wife Cilia Flores. Carvajal, who was extradited from Spain to the US in 2023 after years of legal battles, possesses direct operational knowledge of the networks the prosecution needs to prove: PDVSA’s alleged use as a narco-logistics platform, financial channels linking the Venezuelan state to Hezbollah’s Latin American operations, and cooperation agreements between Maduro-era officials and Colombian and Mexican drug cartels. The development comes days after the US modified its sanctions framework to allow Venezuela’s government to pay Maduro’s defence lawyers — removing the paradoxical obstacle where Washington had charged the defendant but its own sanctions prevented him from funding his legal team. If Carvajal testifies, it would be the highest-level insider to turn against a sitting or former Latin American head of state in a US narcotics prosecution since the Noriega case.
OUTLOOK: WATCH
Cuba Rejects Trump Ultimatum — Prisoner Deadline Expired, Rubio Silent
Thu Apr 24: Cuba’s UN ambassador Soberón Guzmán: “internal matters regarding detainees are not on the negotiation table”; US had set 2-week deadline (expired Fri Apr 24) for release of Otero Alcántara, Maykel Osorbo; Cuba did NOT comply; State Dept: “small window to make a deal”; Rubio silent at Fri press briefing; Díaz-Canel: talks “respectful and professional, very preliminary”; Cuba produces 40K bpd, needs 90-110K; Mexico/Pemex and Venezuela/PDVSA cut off; Russian tanker Anatoly Kolodkin delivered 730K barrels in March; Soberón: “we are prepared to respond” if US military aggression occurs
What Happened
- —As we reported, the Trump administration’s two-week deadline for Cuba to release high-profile political prisoners — including artist Luis Manuel Otero Alcántara and rapper Maykel Osorbo, both jailed since the July 11, 2021 protests — expired on Friday with no compliance. Cuba’s UN ambassador Ernesto Soberón Guzmán told the Associated Press that internal matters regarding detainees “are not on the negotiation table,” adding: “We have our legal system, just as you have yours here in the US. We must respect each other’s internal affairs.” The State Department responded that the Trump administration remains “committed to the release of all political prisoners” and warned that Havana has “a small window to make a deal.” Secretary Rubio was notably silent at Friday’s press briefing. The standoff unfolds against Cuba’s worst energy crisis in decades: the island produces only 40,000 barrels per day but needs 90,000–110,000. Mexico suspended Pemex shipments and Venezuela cut subsidised supplies after Maduro’s capture. A single Russian tanker delivery of 730,000 barrels in March provided only temporary relief. Soberón issued a veiled military warning: “We are observing what is happening around the world. If a US military aggression were to occur, we are prepared to respond.”
RISK: CRITICAL
Mexico Exports Surge in March — Electronics Manufacturing Drives Record
INEGI: Mexico March 2026 exports surged on electronics and advanced manufacturing; nearshoring thesis intact despite security crises (Teotihuacán, Chihuahua); auto sector resilient; T-MEC framework holding; Ebrard: “abandoning T-MEC means inflation and great fear”; manufactured exports value $64.7B (YoY +29.5%); inflation eased to 4.53% first half April
What Happened
- —As we reported, Mexico’s March export data confirmed that the nearshoring thesis remains structurally intact despite the triple security crisis that has dominated headlines. INEGI data showed manufactured exports reaching $64.7 billion in value, a 29.5% year-on-year increase driven by electronics, auto parts, and advanced manufacturing — the sectors most directly benefiting from US-China supply chain diversification. The electronics category was the standout, reflecting the continued expansion of semiconductor packaging, consumer electronics assembly, and data infrastructure components flowing through Mexico’s northern industrial corridors. The data provides a powerful counterargument to the narrative that the Teotihuacán shooting, Chihuahua sovereignty crisis, and UN Human Rights Commissioner visit are fundamentally undermining Mexico’s economic model. As Ebrard told CNN: “Abandoning the T-MEC means inflation, dislocating productive chains, and creating great fear.” The manufacturing trade data suggests that, for now, corporate investment decisions are being driven by supply-chain logic rather than security headlines — though the gap between those two narratives is narrowing.
OUTLOOK: BULLISH
Brazil Poll: Flávio 46% vs Lula 45% — Caiado Emerges as Third Force
BTG/Nexus poll: simulated Oct 2026 runoff — Flávio Bolsonaro 46% vs Lula 45%, first numerical reversal; Ronaldo Caiado (governor Goiás) emerging as third-force centre-right candidate; Romeu Zema (Minas Gerais) also polling; Flávio pledged to end soy moratorium at Norte Show; STF Bolsonaro detention judgment closed Fri (4-0 rejection expected); Datafolha Apr 7-9 showed same 46-45 reversal
What Happened
- —As we reported, the BTG/Nexus presidential poll confirms the tightest race in Brazilian politics since 2022. In a simulated October runoff, Senator Flávio Bolsonaro leads President Lula 46% to 45% — the first numerical reversal in the series and a result consistent with the Datafolha poll conducted April 7–9. The data signals that Lula’s incumbency advantage has been neutralised by a combination of inflation frustration, the Hormuz energy shock, and the Bolsonaro family’s aggressive agribusiness campaign (Flávio’s pledge to end the soy moratorium at the Norte Show was calibrated precisely to lock in the rural vote). Meanwhile, Goiás governor Ronaldo Caiado is emerging as a credible centre-right alternative — drawing support from voters who reject both Lula and the Bolsonaro dynasty. Minas Gerais governor Romeu Zema is also polling. The race is now a three-cornered contest — and the first round, scheduled for October, is six months away.
OUTLOOK: WATCH
Brazil Agribusiness Posts Record Q1 — China Crude Exports Nearly Double
Q1 2026: record agribusiness exports; crude exports to China +94% value, +122% volume — filling gap left by Iran’s Asian buyers; BTG revised trade surplus to $90B (from $75B); soy, beef, sugar all at elevated prices; real strengthened on carry + commodity inflows; Mercosul-EU enters force May 1; Flávio soy moratorium pledge creates tension with EU environmental conditionality
What Happened
- —As we reported, Brazil’s agribusiness sector delivered a record first quarter as the Hormuz crisis reshaped global commodity flows in the country’s favour. The headline number: crude oil exports to China nearly doubled in Q1 2026, rising 94% in value and 122% in volume as Chinese refiners replaced Iranian barrels with Brazilian heavy crude. BTG Pactual revised its full-year trade surplus forecast to $90 billion, up from $75 billion — an increase driven entirely by the war dividend. Traditional agribusiness exports — soy, beef, sugar, coffee — also benefited from elevated global prices and the weak real (which has since strengthened to R$4.98). The Mercosul-EU trade agreement entering force on May 1 creates a new institutional channel for these flows, though the environmental conditionality embedded in the deal sits in direct tension with Flávio Bolsonaro’s pledge to end the soy moratorium — the policy foundation that makes EU market access possible. The structural question is whether Brazil can sustain the Q1 trade surplus trajectory once the Hormuz shock normalises, or whether the record is a war artefact that reverses with peace.
OUTLOOK: BULLISH
Colombia Poll: Cepeda 44%, Valencia 20%, De la Espriella 18% After Massacre
Invamer poll: Cepeda (Pacto Histórico) 44%, Valencia (Centro Democrático) 20%, De la Espriella (Firmes) 18%; Cauca massacre (20 dead, 26 attacks in 2 days) reshaping campaign; Cepeda: “legitimate concern” about far-right fear strategy; Valencia: “paz total failed”; De la Espriella: “criminal gang government”; VP Francia Márquez criticised military intelligence; Petro compared Mordisco to Pablo Escobar; May 31 first round approaching; 127,000 military deployed for election security
What Happened
- —As we reported, the Invamer poll places Iván Cepeda — Petro’s Pacto Histórico candidate and the architect of the controversial “paz total” negotiation strategy — at 44% in first-round voting intention, with right-wing candidates Paloma Valencia at 20% and Abelardo de la Espriella at 18%. The Cauca massacre has polarised the campaign along precisely the fault line Cepeda’s opponents wanted: security versus negotiation. Cepeda argued there is a “legitimate concern” about whether the attacks are designed to “generate a climate of fear that favours the extreme right.” Valencia rejected that framing, calling the paz total policy a failure that has allowed armed groups to strengthen. De la Espriella proposed “all-out war, without truce or negotiation” and accused the Petro government of functioning as “a criminal gang” — without evidence. VP Francia Márquez criticised the military’s intelligence apparatus for failing to prevent the attack. Petro compared Mordisco to Pablo Escobar and ordered “máxima persecución.” With the May 31 first round five weeks away and 127,000 military personnel deployed for election security, the Cauca tragedy has transformed the campaign from a policy debate into a referendum on whether Colombia’s security strategy needs continuity or reversal.
RISK: CRITICAL
US Modifies Venezuela Sanctions — Maduro Defence Lawyers Can Be Paid
Fri Apr 25: court filing — US modified sanctions to allow Delcy Rodríguez’s government to pay defence lawyers for Maduro + Cilia Flores; restriction had threatened to derail prosecution; new US chargé d’affaires Oliver Blanco arrived in Caracas simultaneously; Delcy: “relationship must be based on respect”; Mercosur reopening Venezuela membership talks; Mercosul-EU enters force May 1
What Happened
- —As we reported, Washington quietly removed one of the most paradoxical obstacles to its own prosecution: a court filing on Friday revealed the US had modified its sanctions to let the Venezuelan government — now under Delcy Rodríguez — pay the legal fees of Maduro and Cilia Flores. The modification was pragmatic rather than conciliatory: without it, the defence could have argued the trial violated due process. Simultaneously, the new US chargé d’affaires Oliver Blanco arrived in Caracas — the first US diplomatic presence at that level since 2019. Rodríguez declared the bilateral relationship “must be based on respect.” The sanctions modification, combined with Mercosur reopening Venezuela’s membership talks and the Mercosul-EU deal entering force May 1, signals a rapid multi-track reintegration of Venezuela into the hemispheric order — even as the former president faces trial in New York.
OUTLOOK: WATCH
Petro-Delcy Border Security Pact — Tested by Cauca Massacre
Thu Apr 24: Petro traveled to Caracas with military cúpula; agreed with Rodríguez on joint operations against border criminal groups along 2,219km frontier; agenda: trade normalisation, energy, migration (1.8M+ Venezuelans), Catatumbo; Petro returned — hours later Cauca massacre began; FARC dissidents timing appears calculated to humiliate; May 31 election approaching
What Happened
- —As we reported, the first Petro-Delcy bilateral summit since Maduro’s ouster produced a concrete border-security commitment: joint operations against criminal organisations along the 2,219-kilometre Colombia-Venezuela frontier. Petro brought his military leadership to Caracas — a signal the meeting was operational, not ceremonial. The agenda covered trade normalisation, energy cooperation, migration (1.8+ million Venezuelans in Colombia), and the Catatumbo conflict. But the summit’s significance was immediately overshadowed by the Cauca massacre — 20 dead in a cylinder bomb attack hours after Petro returned to Bogotá. The FARC dissidents’ timing was almost certainly deliberate: demonstrating that Bogotá’s diplomatic achievements abroad have no bearing on the internal armed conflict, and humiliating the president at the precise moment he presented himself as a regional security leader. The juxtaposition — signing a border pact in the morning, 20 civilians killed on a domestic highway in the afternoon — has become the defining image of the May 31 campaign’s final stretch.
RISK: ELEVATED
Regional Snapshot
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Iran, Hormuz & the Week Ahead Tehran’s new peace proposal — decoupling the Hormuz reopening from the nuclear question — represents the most concrete diplomatic move since the April 7 ceasefire. But Trump cancelled the Pakistan delegation that was supposed to receive it, and Brent traded above $107 Monday morning. Hormuz traffic remains “practically paralysed.” As our analysis detailed, this is the most decisive week of the war. The Copom decides Wednesday. Adorni testifies before Argentina’s Congress Wednesday in the most politically charged session of Milei’s presidency. Milei delivers a Keynes lecture Tuesday as counter-narrative. The Israel-Lebanon ceasefire expired Saturday. Paraguay receives its first US deportation plane Thursday. Previous Pulse editions. |
Brazil Politics & Peru Lula’s government rejected the creation of Terrabras — a proposed state-owned land company — killing a proposal that had alarmed agribusiness and foreign investors. The Senate confirmed AG Jorge Messias for the STF vacancy. Justice Moraes opened a 15-day window for Eduardo Bolsonaro’s final defence arguments. The Brazil-US PF/ICE reciprocity standoff remains unresolved. In Peru, Roberto Sánchez declared he is “convinced” of facing Keiko in the June 7 runoff and announced a Monday lawsuit against ONPE and JNJ chiefs — though EU observers found no evidence of fraud. The F-16 cabinet crisis, Corvetto resignation, and congressional uncertainty continue simultaneously. A shooting at the White House Correspondents’ Dinner Saturday — with Trump present — added to the hemisphere’s security anxiety. Previous Pulse editions. |