The Big Three
The S&P Merval crashed 2.32% to 2,767,136.50 on Monday — breaking the three-week range and closing below the 200-day SMA (2,775,830) for the first time since the March correction. The index opened at 2,832,851 (Wednesday’s close), barely touched 2,835,420 (open ≈ high — bearish marubozu), then collapsed to a session low of 2,760,020 before closing at 2,767,137. The 65,714-point decline is the largest since the April 23 crash that initiated the correction. The range that had defined the Merval for eighteen sessions (2,800K–2,878K) has resolved to the downside. Every level — Kijun, cloud bottom, 50-SMA, 200-SMA — has been broken in a single session. The MACD histogram at −20,109 is the deepest of the entire 2026 cycle.
The close below the 200-day SMA is the most severe Ichimoku signal available — and the February–March precedent maps the potential downside. In that correction, the Merval fell from the January 28 ATH (3,296,502) to below 2,700,000 — an 18% drawdown — before finding support at the 200-day SMA and launching the recovery that reached 2,955,991. Monday’s close at 2,767,137 is now below the 200-day SMA at 2,775,830, meaning the correction is technically deeper than the prior report anticipated. The next major support is the March correction low zone near 2,700,000 — a further 2.4% below Monday’s close. RSI signal at 38.23 is in oversold territory and approaching the 35 level where prior corrections found their floor.
The April CPI on May 14 — now 10 days away — arrives with the Merval in a much weaker position than the range-bound equilibrium the prior reports described. Instead of the CPI resolving a balanced range (2,800K–2,878K), it now hits a market that has broken support and is heading toward the March correction lows. A CPI below 3% would need to produce a sharp reversal to reclaim the 200-SMA; a CPI above 3% could accelerate the decline toward 2,700,000. The soybean harvest peak and the BCRA‘s reserve accumulation ($3.3 billion YTD) provide the fundamental floor — but the 19.8x forward P/E, the Adorni corruption probe, and the 36% approval rating provide the ceiling. The valuation question that has haunted this series — can the Merval justify LatAm’s highest multiple without earnings delivery? — is being answered with selling.
01 Market Snapshot
| Indicator | Value | Change |
| S&P Merval Close | 2,767,136.50 | −2.32% (−65,714.49) |
| 200-day SMA (BROKEN) | 2,775,830 | close below — first since Mar |
| 50-day SMA (broken) | 2,784,264 | close below |
| Session Low | 2,760,019.68 | deepest since March |
| MACD histogram (DEEPEST 2026) | −20,109 | from −16,561 |
| RSI signal (OVERSOLD) | 38.23 | from 44.66 |
| 3-week range (BROKEN) | was 2,800K–2,878K | resolved downward |
| March correction low target | ~2,700,000 | 2.4% below close |
| April CPI | May 14 | 10 days |
02 Equities — The Range Breaks
Merval Argentina today enters Tuesday’s session below the 200-day SMA for the first time since March after the S&P Merval crashed 2.32% on Monday. This Argentina stock market report covers the session that resolved the three-week range that this series tracked since April 16 — and it resolved to the downside. The bearish marubozu (open ≈ high at 2,835,420, close near the low at 2,767,137) confirms the selling pattern: the session opened on the Kijun-sen and sold without interruption through the cloud bottom, the 50-SMA, and the 200-SMA. This is part of The Rio Times’ daily coverage of Latin American equity markets.
The prior report’s verdict was “bearish lean within a range — 200-SMA tested, MACD widening, CPI in 14 days.” Monday proved the lean was correct and the range was ready to break. The catalysts for the breakdown: the Adorni non-resolution continues to weigh, the LatAm-wide risk-off (Colombia −0.39%, Mexico −0.85%, Chile data pending) synchronized selling, and the absence of any positive catalyst to sustain the range. The soybean harvest could not prevent the decline — just as it failed to prevent the April 23 crash. The structural floor exists, but it is lower than 2,833K.
The February–March correction provides the roadmap. In that correction, the Merval fell from 3,296,502 (January 28 ATH) to approximately 2,695,424 (February 19 low) — an 18.2% drawdown that found its floor when the MACD flattened at the 200-SMA. The current correction from 2,955,991 (April 16 range high) to 2,767,137 is a −6.4% decline that has now broken the 200-SMA. If the February–March precedent holds, the MACD (now at −20,109) will not flatten until the Merval finds a similar exhaustion level — potentially the 2,700,000 zone where the March correction bottomed.
03 Key Levels
| Level | S&P Merval |
| 21-EMA (distant) | 2,854,008 |
| 50-SMA (broken) | 2,784,264 |
| 200-SMA (broken) | 2,775,830 |
| Monday Close | 2,767,137 |
| March correction low | ~2,700,000 |
| Lower BB | 2,580,634 |
04 Looking Ahead
Tuesday determines whether Monday was the start of a new leg down or a capitulation day that produces an oversold bounce. The RSI signal at 38.23 is approaching the 35 zone where prior corrections found their floor. A hold above 2,760,020 (Monday’s low) with a bounce toward 2,784K (50-SMA, now resistance) would be the first stabilization signal. A break below 2,760K targets the March correction low at ~2,700,000.
Key dates: May 14 — April INDEC CPI (10 days — below 3% = reversal catalyst; above 3% = acceleration). April–May — peak soybean harvest. Country risk ~500 bps. US$19B debt maturities. US$2B World Bank-backed loan.
05 Verdict
Monday answered the question the range refused to. The three-week standoff between bulls and bears at the Kijun/cloud bottom — eighteen sessions of oscillation without resolution — has resolved to the downside with a 2.32% crash that broke the 50-SMA, the 200-SMA, and the cloud in a single session. The MACD at −20,109 is the deepest of 2026. The RSI signal at 38.23 is in oversold territory. Every support level this series tracked since April 16 has been broken. The Merval at 2,767,137 is heading toward the March correction low at ~2,700,000 unless the April CPI on May 14 provides a reversal catalyst.
Bias: Strongly bearish — below the 200-SMA, MACD at 2026 deep, March lows targeted. The Merval at 2,767K is in confirmed downtrend with no technical support until ~2,700K. The 19.8x P/E is being repriced by the market’s verdict: the Milei reform premium has not been validated by earnings, the Adorni probe is unresolved, and ten months of CPI above 3% have eroded the disinflation thesis. The soybean harvest and fiscal surplus provide the floor — but it is a floor at 2,700K, not at 2,833K. The CPI on May 14 is the data event that determines whether the Merval stabilizes at the March lows or breaks new ground to the downside. Ten days.
Related coverage:
Previous Merval: Merval Tests 200-SMA as Range Tightens
March correction: Merval Plunges 3.3% — Post-Election Rally Fully Erased
Economy guide: Argentina Economy 2026: Complete Investor Guide
LatAm markets: Latin America Stock Markets 2026: Complete Guide
This report is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Always consult a licensed financial advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Published by The Rio Times.