The Big Three
The Merval slipped 0.03% to 2,998,770 — essentially flat and, once again, closing within a rounding error of the 3-million level. The session opened at 3,001,257, pushed to 3,046,566 intraday, pulled back to 2,995,131, and settled at 2,998,770. This is the seventh session in the last two weeks where the index has orbited 3 million, unable to decisively break above or below. The 3M level has become a black hole — the index keeps getting pulled back to it.
The BCRA continues accumulating reserves under the inflation-linked crawling band system. Gross reserves have climbed to their highest level since Milei took office, with the central bank targeting up to US$10 billion in purchases for 2026. The peso trades near ARS 1,450 per dollar within the band, with the contado con liquidación gap narrowing to ~4.5% — a historically tight spread. Country risk has declined from the 633 bps 2026 high to approximately 500 bps, approaching the threshold needed for international market access.
Milei’s fiscal austerity faces its first real stress test as the economy softens. Tax revenues have declined in real terms for seven consecutive months. The 2026 budget projects 10.1% inflation and 5% GDP growth — targets that independent economists consider ambitious. US$19 billion in debt maturities loom in 2026. The labour reform was partially suspended by a court ruling. The question is whether the fiscal surplus — Milei’s signature achievement — can survive the economic deceleration.
01 Market Snapshot
| Indicator | Value | Change |
| Merval Close | 2,998,770 | −0.03% (−838 pts) |
| Session Range | 2,995,131 – 3,046,566 | 51,435 pt range |
| USD/ARS (Official) | ~1,450 | crawling band |
| CCL Gap | ~4.5% | historically narrow |
| Country Risk | ~500 bps | down from 633 peak |
| BCRA Policy Rate | 29% TNA | 2.42% eff. monthly |
| ATH (Jan 28) | 3,296,502 | −9.0% from peak |
| 2026 Debt Maturities | US$19B+ | refinancing critical |
02 Equities — The 3-Million Gravitational Pull
The Merval Argentina today enters the week functionally at 3 million — again. Friday’s −0.03% close at 2,998,770 was the seventh session in the past two weeks where the index orbited the round number, unable to decisively break in either direction. This is part of The Rio Times’ daily coverage of the Argentine stock market and Latin American financial markets. For context, see our prior report: Merval Just 392 Points Below 3M as Momentum Builds.
Friday’s session told the same story as every session this fortnight: the index opened above 3 million at 3,001,257, rallied to 3,046,566 in early trade, then faded through the session to close just below the line. The intraday high of 3,046,566 represents the strongest print since mid-March and confirms there is buying interest above 3 million — but the inability to hold above the level on a closing basis suggests institutional profit-taking on every rally. The distinction between 2,998,770 and 3,000,000 is psychologically meaningful but financially immaterial. What matters is the trajectory: the Merval is up 14.37% over the past month and 37.90% year-over-year.
The index remains 9% below the January 28 all-time high of 3,296,502. In USD terms through the CCL, the picture is more modest — the peso’s ~30% nominal depreciation over 12 months compresses dollar-denominated returns significantly. The financial sector (Galicia, Macro, BYMA) trading at 1.7–1.8x book value remains the consensus overweight, with YPF and Vaca Muerta energy names the growth story.
03 The Milei Economy: Fiscal Surplus Under Pressure
Milei’s signature achievement — the primary fiscal surplus — faces its first real stress test. Tax revenues have declined in real terms for seven consecutive months as the economy softens. The 2026 budget projects 10.1% inflation (implying sub-1% monthly) and 5% GDP growth, targets that independent economists view as ambitious. The IMF’s first program review flagged two pressure points: a missed reserve accumulation target at end-2025 of roughly US$2.6 billion, and the 2026 primary surplus target of 2.2% of GDP.
The government is cutting subsidies for energy and public transport, translating into higher utility bills and more expensive commutes. A labour court judge suspended approximately 40% of articles from Milei’s labour reform following a CGT filing. As covered in our Argentina Economy 2026 Complete Guide, the question is whether macroeconomic consolidation can survive the political cost of continued austerity — and whether the midterm election mandate (Milei’s party nearly tripled its lower house representation to ~101 seats) provides enough runway.
Debt maturities exceeding US$19 billion in 2026 make refinancing conditions critical. The US$42 billion external support package (IMF + World Bank + IDB + US Treasury) provides a backstop, but market access for private refinancing hinges on country risk staying below 500 bps and the government maintaining its reform trajectory.
04 The Peso and the Band
The peso trades near ARS 1,450 per dollar within the inflation-linked crawling band introduced on January 1, 2026. Under this framework, the band’s ceiling and floor adjust monthly in line with the most recent inflation figure — replacing the previous 1% fixed monthly adjustment that had caused the band to tighten in real terms. The CCL gap has narrowed to approximately 4.5%, a historically tight spread that reflects the normalization of Argentina’s multiple exchange rate system under the post-cepo framework.
The BCRA continues accumulating reserves, with gross reserves climbing to their highest since Milei took office. The central bank targets up to US$10 billion in purchases for 2026, with daily caps of 5% of traded volume to avoid disrupting market functioning. A tailwind has been the mark-to-market boost from gold holdings as bullion rallied above $4,700. Country risk has declined from the 633 bps 2026 high to approximately 500 bps — approaching the threshold markets consider necessary for international bond issuance.
05 Technical Analysis — Merval Daily
Chart: TradingView / riotimesonline.com · Apr 13, 2026 06:29 UTC
The daily chart shows the Merval consolidating in a tight range around 3 million after the powerful recovery from the March lows near 2,700,000. Price is trading above the Ichimoku cloud, with the cloud’s upper boundary near 2,960,574 providing immediate support. The Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen are converging near the 2,960,000 area, consistent with the consolidation phase. The 200-day moving average slopes upward near 2,518,000 — well below current price — confirming the secular bull trend.
The Bollinger Bands show price near the upper band at approximately 3,102,312, with the middle band at 2,857,845 and the lower band near 2,518,000. The bands are relatively wide, reflecting the elevated volatility from the February–March correction and subsequent recovery. Friday’s close at 2,998,770 sits in the upper third of the range.
The MACD is positive at 62,543, with the MACD line at 33,004 and signal at 29,540. The histogram remains green and has been expanding — as noted in Wednesday’s report, this positive divergence (rising momentum + flat price) is a powerful bullish signal. The RSI reads 63.19 on the fast line and 58.33 on the slow — bullish territory but not yet overbought. The RSI has been trending higher since mid-March, supporting the continuation thesis.
06 Key Levels
| Level | Merval |
| ATH (Jan 28) | 3,296,502 |
| Resistance 2 / Upper Bollinger | 3,102,312 |
| Resistance 1 / Fri intraday high | 3,046,566 |
| Current Close | 2,998,770 |
| Support 1 / Ichimoku cloud top | 2,960,574 |
| Support 2 / MA cluster | 2,857,845 |
| Support 3 / March recovery base | 2,781,574 |
| 200-Day MA | 2,518,000 |
07 News in Focus
YPF and Vaca Muerta: The Energy Engine
YPF remains the defining equity story in Argentina. The court ruling removing a decade-old liability, combined with WTI above $95 and record Vaca Muerta production, makes YPF the most compelling fundamental case in the Merval. Argentina ended 2025 with record oil production and an energy surplus — a structural shift that supports both the fiscal position and the trade balance. April’s soybean harvest provides an additional dollar inflow channel, historically boosting BCRA reserve purchases.
Country Risk: The 500 Threshold
Country risk has declined from the 633 bps 2026 peak to approximately 500 bps — the level that analysts consider the threshold for Argentina to access international bond markets for refinancing. The spread’s direction is a more important signal than the Merval itself: equities can rally on domestic flows, but the fixed-income market reflects international investor confidence in Argentina’s ability to service US$19 billion+ in 2026 maturities. The US Treasury’s $20 billion support package and the IMF’s Extended Fund Facility provide the backstop, but private market access is the goal. As we covered in our country risk analysis, the 500 bps level is the line between managed stress and genuine access.
Labour Reform: Partially Suspended
A labour court judge suspended approximately 40% of articles from Milei’s labour reform following a filing by the CGT (Confederación General del Trabajo). The reform — a centrepiece of Milei’s structural agenda — aimed to increase flexibility in hiring and firing, reduce severance costs, and modernize collective bargaining. The partial suspension introduces legal uncertainty for companies that had begun adjusting their labour practices, and signals the limits of reform even with an expanded congressional majority. The Sheinbaum-style lesson: legislative victories do not automatically translate into enforceable policy when the judiciary pushes back.
Inflation: Approaching the Target
Argentina’s disinflation has been Milei’s most impressive achievement: from nearly 300% annual in April 2024 to approximately 22–25% projected for full-year 2026. Monthly inflation remains near 2%, with the budget targeting sub-1% monthly by year-end. The BCRA policy rate at 29% TNA (2.42% effective monthly) reflects the easing trajectory, though real rates remain high enough to constrain economic activity. Prediction markets assign only a 3% probability to dollarization occurring before mid-2026 — the debate has faded as peso stabilization delivers results.
08 Looking Ahead
Monday open: The Merval’s seventh test of 3 million — can it finally close above on a convincing basis? The expanding MACD histogram favours the bulls, but institutional selling above 3M has been persistent.
Country risk: A sustained move below 500 bps would be the most bullish fixed-income signal of 2026, potentially enabling Argentina to test international bond markets for the first time under Milei.
IMF review: The semi-annual review of the US$20 billion Extended Fund Facility is approaching. Disbursements of approximately US$700 million are tied to benchmarks on reserves, fiscal surplus, and structural reform. Any wobble in compliance would unsettle bonds.
Oil: The US-Iran ceasefire’s impact on Brent is critical for YPF and Vaca Muerta earnings. Lower oil hurts the energy thesis but relieves global inflationary pressure and supports EM risk appetite — a mixed blessing for Argentina.
Soybean harvest: April’s harvest is historically the peak period for agricultural export dollar inflows. A strong harvest supports BCRA reserve accumulation and the fiscal position through export duties.
09 Verdict
Friday was a microcosm of the past two weeks: the Merval opened above 3 million, rallied to 3,046,566, and faded to close at 2,998,770. The pattern is clear and repetitive. But the underlying momentum is shifting bullish — the MACD histogram at 62,543 is the strongest positive reading in months, the RSI at 63 is trending higher without being overbought, and the index sits above the Ichimoku cloud and well above the 200-day MA. The fixed-income picture is improving too: country risk at ~500 bps is down sharply from the 633 peak, and the CCL gap at 4.5% reflects genuine FX normalization.
Bias: Cautiously bullish. The Merval at 2,998,770 is 9% below the ATH and consolidating after a 14% monthly gain. The expanding MACD, trending RSI, and improving country risk favour an eventual breakout above 3 million toward the 3,102,312 upper Bollinger. The risks are real: US$19 billion in maturities, a softening economy, partial labour reform suspension, and the fiscal surplus under pressure from declining real tax revenues. But the structural story — Milei’s congressional majority, BCRA reserve accumulation, Vaca Muerta energy surplus, disinflation from 300% to ~22%, and the US$42 billion external backstop — remains intact. The 3-million level will break. The question is when, not if. This report was published by The Rio Times. For daily coverage, read our Latin American Pulse.
This report was published by The Rio Times. For daily coverage of Latin American markets, read our Latin American Pulse and Brazil Morning Call.