Latin American Pulse for Saturday, April 11, 2026

Risk Snapshot

Colombia: Corte Kills Emergency Powers, Ecuador Launches Trade War, Streets Erupt

Corte Constitucional definitively strikes down emergency decree — Petro loses last fiscal instrument; Ecuador imposes 100% tariffs on Colombian goods and recalls ambassador — “lowest point in decades” (EFE); Paro Nacional: taxi strike blocks Calle 26 + Terminal Bogotá, disrupts El Dorado; 8 MIO stations vandalised in Cali; Catatumbo: 2 drone attacks kill 2 in 24h; S&P BB- Day 4; COLCAP +0.33% to 2,302; May 31 election approaches

What Happened

• —The court: Colombia’s Corte Constitucional definitively struck down President Petro’s economic emergency decree — the legal instrument he had used to claim extraordinary fiscal powers. The ruling eliminates the last remaining tool Petro had to bypass Congress on spending and taxation. Coming four days after S&P’s downgrade to BB- and amid a sustained confrontation with BanRep, the timing strips the government of manoeuvring room on fiscal policy precisely when the deficit is widening and international creditors are watching. Petro’s successor — whoever wins on May 31 — inherits a government that has now lost both its credit rating and its emergency fiscal authority in the same week.
• —The trade war: Ecuador’s President Daniel Noboa escalated the bilateral dispute to its most extreme level, imposing 100% tariffs on Colombian goods and recalling the Ecuadorian ambassador from Bogotá. EFE described the relationship as being at “its lowest point in decades.” The dispute has political underpinnings — Noboa and Petro represent opposing ideological poles — but the immediate trigger is commercial: cross-border trade flows, which were already complicated by Ecuador’s dollarised economy and Colombia’s depreciating peso, are now effectively frozen. For Colombian exporters, the tariff is prohibitive. For Ecuador’s dollarised consumer economy, the loss of cheap Colombian agricultural and manufactured imports means inflationary pressure.
• —The streets: A Paro Nacional erupted across Colombia, with taxi drivers blockading Bogotá’s Calle 26, disrupting El Dorado airport operations and shutting down ticket sales at the main bus terminal. In Cali, eight MIO transit stations were vandalised with graffiti. In Catatumbo — the lawless border zone where armed groups contest control — two separate drone attacks killed two people and wounded three in 24 hours, reflecting the continued reorganisation of illegal structures that security analysts have called unprecedented.

Why It Matters

Colombia is experiencing an institutional, diplomatic, and social crisis simultaneously — a convergence that makes the May 31 presidential election existential rather than routine. The Corte ruling + S&P downgrade + BanRep confrontation + Ecuador trade war + Paro Nacional form a picture of a government that has lost control of its fiscal tools, its credit standing, its regional relationships, and its streets in the same week. COLCAP’s +0.33% is not resilience — it’s numbness, as the market runs out of things to price. The question for investors is whether the May 31 transition creates a reset or whether the institutional damage (particularly to BanRep credibility, which S&P explicitly flagged) persists regardless of who wins. As covered in previous editions, the “erdoganisation” frame has moved from warning to reality — now compounded by a diplomatic rupture with a neighbour.

RISK: CRITICAL

Argentina: The Glacier Backlash — 300,000 Signatures, a Provincial Court Challenge, and a Camp at the Foot of the Andes

300K signatures in 12 hours via demandacolectivaglaciares.org — FARN + Greenpeace + AAdeAA; tripled Audiencia Pública participation; La Pampa Governor Ziliotto files amparo colectivo ambiental at Juzgado Federal de Santa Rosa — demands unconstitutionality + immediate suspension (cautelar urgente); co-filed with Universidad Nacional de La Pampa + Fundación Chadileuvú + Asamblea por los Ríos Pampeanos; Uspallata 24h protest camp against San Alberto copper mine; Mendoza diputados Aveiro + Félix (PJ) + Arrieta (LLA) only Mendocinos who voted against; MERVAL −0.03% to 2,998,770

What Happened

• —The lawsuit: Within 12 hours of the Glacier Law’s approval, 300,000 people signed on to a collective legal action launched by Greenpeace, FARN, and the Asociación Argentina de Abogados Ambientalistas — tripling the number of citizens who registered for the Audiencia Pública. The organisations are framing it as “the largest collective lawsuit in defence of water in Argentine history.” The platform at demandacolectivaglaciares.org continues to collect signatures. The legal strategy targets the reformed law on constitutional grounds: environmental regression, violation of the non-regression principle in environmental law, and conflict with international conventions Argentina has ratified.
• —The provincial challenge: La Pampa’s Governor Sergio Ziliotto filed an amparo colectivo ambiental before the Juzgado Federal de Santa Rosa, demanding both the law’s unconstitutionality and a medida cautelar urgente — an emergency injunction to suspend the law’s effects immediately while the case proceeds. The province argues that although La Pampa has no glaciers, it depends on the Río Atuel and other waterways of glacial origin. The amparo was co-filed with the Universidad Nacional de La Pampa, the Fundación Chadileuvú, and the Asamblea por los Ríos Pampeanos. This is the first provincial government to formally challenge the law in court.
• —The camp: In Uspallata, Mendoza — at the base of the Andes where San Alberto copper mining operations would commence — residents have established a 24-hour protest camp demanding the halt of extraction. The camp is organised by local environmental assemblies and represents the physical front of the resistance. Of Mendoza’s national diputados, only three voted against: Aveiro and Félix (PJ) and, notably, Lourdes Arrieta — a La Libertad Avanza member who broke with her own bloc.

Why It Matters

Milei got the law, but the war is far from over. The judicial front is now the binding constraint: if La Pampa’s cautelar urgente is granted, mining operations cannot begin even though the law exists. Additional amparos from other provinces (Mendoza, San Juan’s own water-dependent communities, Catamarca) are expected. The 300,000 signatures demonstrate that the Audiencia Pública’s overwhelming opposition to the reform was not performative — it reflected genuine civic mobilisation. For the mining sector, legal uncertainty remains: no company will commit billions to Josemaría or Los Azules until the constitutional challenges are resolved. The MERVAL’s flat performance (−0.03%) reflects this ambiguity — the law is bullish for mining in theory, but the judicial resistance means the actual timeline for investment is unknowable. As covered in yesterday’s edition, Karina Milei’s presence in the gallery signalled political victory; but 300,000 signatures in 12 hours signals that the political cost is only beginning to accumulate.

RISK: ELEVATED

Brazil: Third Consecutive Record at 197,324 — Best Week Since January, Real at Two-Year High, But Inflation Ticks Up

IBOV +1.12% to 197,323.87 — 3rd consecutive ATH; intraday 197,553.64; weekly gain +4.93% (best since January); YTD +22.47%; USD/BRL −1.03% to 5.0115 (lowest since mid-2024); weekly decline ~2.9%; IPCA March +0.88% (accelerating); BCB Selic 14.75%; Mello: “fiscal adjustments even in election year”; Petrobras positive week despite oil volatility; BB raises Vale target to R$89; AGM Apr 16 in 5 days; RSI 58-72

What Happened

• —The records: The Ibovespa closed at 197,323.87 on Friday — its third consecutive all-time high — after touching an intraday peak of 197,553.64. The weekly gain of +4.93% is the strongest since January; the index has risen 22.47% year-to-date. The rally was driven by foreign capital inflows attracted by Brazil’s combination of high yields (Selic at 14.75%), low geopolitical exposure relative to the Middle East, and the ceasefire-driven reduction in risk premium. USD/BRL fell to 5.0115 — the lowest since mid-2024 — with a weekly decline of approximately 2.9%. Petrobras ended the week positive despite the initial oil crash, as the market read the recovery as part of a broader improvement in Brazilian risk appetite rather than a commodity play alone. Banco do Brasil raised its Vale price target to R$89.
• —The inflation complication: IPCA inflation for March came in at +0.88% — accelerating from the prior month and complicating the market’s rate-cut expectations. The BCB’s Selic rate remains at 14.75%, and President Galípolo has signalled “movimentos comedidos” (moderate steps). Guilherme Mello, the newly appointed secretário-executivo at the Planning Ministry, told Reuters that the government will continue fiscal adjustments in 2026 despite the electoral cycle — a rare and significant signal aimed directly at market sceptics who assume fiscal discipline evaporates in election years. The April 16 Petrobras AGM — where Mello’s board chairmanship, dividends, and the capital budget will be decided — is now five days away.

Why It Matters

The IBOV at 197,324 with the real at 5.01 represents the strongest positioning of Brazilian assets since before the 2024 fiscal scare. The weekly gain of nearly 5% is exceptional for an index of this size. But the RSI at 58-72 is entering overbought territory, and the IPCA acceleration introduces a tension: the market is rallying on lower geopolitical risk and carry-trade flows, while the domestic inflation picture argues against the rate cuts that would sustain the rally medium-term. Mello’s fiscal discipline signal is important — if credible, it addresses the market’s deepest structural concern about the Lula administration. The test will be the AGM on April 16 and the budget trajectory into October’s election. For now, Brazil is the undisputed beneficiary of the LATAM reallocation: foreign investors are rotating from Colombia (downgraded), Mexico (oil spill + strike), and Argentina (institutional risk) into Brazil (carry + reform + lower exposure).

RISK: ELEVATED

Ecuador: Noboa’s 100% Tariffs on Colombia Push Relations to Their Lowest in Decades

100% tariffs on Colombian imports; ambassador recalled from Bogotá; EFE: “lowest point in decades”; political backdrop: Noboa (right) vs Petro (left); dollarised economy faces inflationary shock from loss of cheap Colombian goods; state of exception Day 10; 60-day term; oil crash headwind on fiscal; Corte Constitucional review still pending

What Happened

• —The escalation: President Noboa imposed 100% tariffs on Colombian imports — an extraordinary measure that effectively shuts down bilateral trade — and recalled Ecuador’s ambassador from Bogotá for consultations. The dispute has both commercial and political dimensions. Noboa, who won office on a security-first, right-leaning platform, has clashed repeatedly with Petro over border security, migration, and drug trafficking. Ecuador’s dollarised economy relies heavily on Colombian agricultural and manufactured imports for price stability; 100% tariffs will generate consumer price increases in a country already strained by the security crisis and energy shortages. Noboa recently declared there would be “sufficient energy all month” — but the oil crash to $96 Brent reduces fiscal revenue for a government that depends entirely on dollar-denominated commodity exports.
• —The context: The trade war lands on top of Ecuador’s domestic security crisis — the state of exception enters Day 10 with the Corte Constitucional review still pending — and the global oil price uncertainty. Ecuador exports roughly 500,000 barrels per day; every dollar off the Brent price reduces fiscal revenue. The diplomatic rupture with Colombia, its largest trading partner and most important neighbour, compounds the isolation at a moment when Noboa needs regional cooperation most.

Why It Matters

The Ecuador-Colombia rupture creates a new fault line in Andean geopolitics. Both countries are in electoral or pre-electoral mode (Colombia votes May 31; Ecuador’s next cycle approaches), which means neither leader has an incentive to de-escalate. For LATAM investors, this is another variable: the northern Andes corridor — Ecuador, Colombia, Venezuela — is now characterised by trade wars, credit downgrades, paro nacional, and drone warfare, all simultaneously. The contrast with Brazil’s record-breaking rally could not be starker.

RISK: ELEVATED

Regional Snapshot

Markets at a Glance — Friday April 10 Close (Week-End)

All equity and FX data from TradingView Tier 0 charts timestamped Apr 11, 07:07 UTC (riotimesonline account) — reflecting Friday April 10 closes. Colombia from Noticias Caracol/Semana/El Tiempo/La FM/EFE. Argentina from Greenpeace AR/Página 12/Cenital/Cadena 3/Diario Crónica/La Unión. Brazil from Money Times/Gazeta Mercantil/Exame/Investidor10. Ecuador from EFE/Primicias. Peru from RPP/El Comercio/Infobae/La República/Gestión. Chile from TradingView. Islamabad from Al Jazeera/CNN/Time/CBC/Soufan Center. Previous Pulse editions.

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