Latin American Pulse for Thursday, May 7, 2026

Brazil: STF Decides Today on 13-Year Oil-Royalties Question

Thu May 7: STF resumes ADI 4917 merits judgment on Law 12.734/2012 after Wed oral arguments; Cármen Lúcia vota como relatora; RJ procurador-geral Binenbojm told court state exposure now R$26B/year for 2026 (vs prior R$7B estimate) — war oil prices lifted royalty pool from R$107B to R$146B; RJ produces 86% petróleo, 76% gás natural; non-producer states (Goiás, Mato Grosso, Tocantins, Acre, Paraná) demand redistribution; CNM proposed 7-year transition; SP exposure ~R$2.5B/year, ES also producer; acting governor Couto met Lula + Fux Apr 30; Itaú Q1 R$11.64B (+10.7%) ata Wed 10h BRT; Bradesco Q1 today after B3 close; PRIO Q1 US$460M (+33%) Wahoo first oil 155K bpd record; Petrobras Q1 May 11; Lula viaja a EUA esta semana para reunión con Trump; Real Time Big Data: Lula 40% / Flávio 34% 1ª vuelta, Flávio 42-40 numericamente à frente em 2ª vuelta pela primeira vez; IBOV +0.50% to 187,690.86 ahead of vote

What Happened

• —The decision: The Supreme Federal Court (STF) resumes Thursday morning the merits judgment on Law 12.734/2012 — the oil-royalties redistribution that has been suspended for thirteen years under Justice Cármen Lúcia’s 2013 cautelar (ADI 4917). The plenary heard oral arguments from all parties Wednesday — including procuradores from Rio de Janeiro, São Paulo, Espírito Santo, Bahia, Goiás, and the Confederação Nacional dos Municípios — and will begin substantive voting today with Cármen Lúcia’s vote as relatora. Rio de Janeiro’s procurador-geral Gustavo Binenbojm told the court the exposure has grown structurally: war-driven oil prices lifted the projected 2026 royalty pool from R$107 billion to R$146 billion, putting Rio’s state-level loss at roughly R$26 billion in 2026 alone if redistribution holds. Rio produces 86% of national petroleum and 76% of gas. São Paulo’s exposure runs roughly R$2.5 billion per year. The CNM has proposed a seven-year transition window. Background: Brazil court reopens oil royalty fight.
• —The earnings layer: Itaú Unibanco reported Q1 net income of R$11.64 billion on Tuesday (+10.7% YoY) and reaffirmed credit-growth guidance of 5.5–9.5% on the interactive call Wednesday with CEO Milton Maluhy and CFO Gabriel Moura. Prio (PRIO3) posted US$460 million in Q1 net income (+33% YoY), with Wahoo first oil driving record 155,000 bpd output and net debt/EBITDA at 2.0x and falling — XP expects sub-1.5x by year-end. Bradesco Q1 lands today after the B3 close; Petrobras follows Monday May 11. The Real Time Big Data poll published May 5 places Lula at 40% and Flávio Bolsonaro at 34% in the first round; in the runoff scenario, Flávio leads numerically 42–40 — the first time he has been ahead of Lula in any poll, though within the margin of error. President Lula travels to the US this week to meet President Trump.

RISK: CRITICAL

Banxico Cuts 25 bp to 6.50%, Closes 14-Cut Cycle

Thu May 7 13:00 CST: Banxico decision; consensus −25 bp to 6.50% — terminal cut of 14-cut, 450 bp easing cycle since Mar 2024; Banorte expects 18-month hold; JPM signals end of cycle; BBVA Research base case aligned; Mexico April CPI prints same morning, consensus 4.59% headline / 4.45% core; Q1 GDP −0.8% q/q deepening backdrop; Heath dissent in dec ’25 vote — split possible again; Sheinbaum mañanera #393: FNDL agricultural debt relief for ~70K borrowers, US-MX aviation deal recognising AIFA, BTS at Palacio Nacional 5pm CT, Simulacro Nacional 11h CT M8.2 Brecha Guerrero 80M Cell Broadcast devices; Sheinbaum vs PAN’s Jorge Romero: “líder del cártel inmobiliario”; Olinia EV prototype unveil Jun 7; IPC México +1.84% to 69,855.23 ahead of decision

What Happened

• —The cut: Banco de México decides Thursday May 7 at 13:00 CST. Consensus among economists models a 25 basis-point cut to 6.50%, the closing move of a 14-cut, 450 basis-point easing cycle that began in March 2024. Banorte’s preview reiterates the 6.50% terminal call followed by an 18-month hold; JPMorgan expects the cut and a signal that the easing cycle has ended; BBVA Research aligns with the same base case. The macro backdrop has hardened — Q1 GDP contracted 0.8% quarter-on-quarter (the largest since Q4 2024) and 0.1% year-on-year, against persistent core inflation in services and the inflation pass-through risk from oil. Deputy Governor Jonathan Heath dissented from the December 2025 cut in favour of a hold, leaving open the possibility of a split decision today. Mexico’s April CPI prints the same morning, with consensus at 4.59% headline and 4.45% core. The IPC México added 1.84% Wednesday to 69,855.23, the third consecutive positive session, with the index recovering above the Tenkan and Kijun.
• —The Sheinbaum layer: President Claudia Sheinbaum’s mañanera #393 Wednesday from the Salón Tesorería announced an agricultural-debt relief programme through the Financiera Nacional de Desarrollo (FNDL) covering roughly 70,000 borrowers, with 13,404 women in cartera vencida prioritised under INDEP’s framework. The administration confirmed a US-Mexico aviation agreement that explicitly recognises the AIFA (Felipe Ángeles International Airport) — a bilateral win after months of US sanctions pressure. Sheinbaum struck PAN president Jorge Romero as líder del cártel inmobiliario and asked who invited foreign agents to the April 19 Chihuahua operation. The K-pop group BTS visited Palacio Nacional at 5pm CT (ARIRANG tour). The Simulacro Nacional ran at 11h CT with the M8.2 Brecha Guerrero hypothesis tested via Cell Broadcast to roughly 80 million devices. The Olinia electric-vehicle prototype unveil is scheduled for June 7. Background: Plan México 90-day approvals window.

OUTLOOK: WATCH

Argentina: MERVAL +4.42% as Milei Lands at Milken; Cavallo-Caputo War Goes Public

Tue May 5 / Wed May 6: Cavallo en Ahora Play llamó Caputo “trader sin teoría”, exigió liberalización plena del peso, advirtió crisis cambiaria 2027; Caputo respondió en X: “si hay resentimiento, intenten no demostrarlo”; Milei agregó citando Plan Bonex 1989, corralito 2001, AFJP; BCRA acumuló US$6.5B YTD; riesgo país 558 bp (desde 613); Fitch upgraded fin de abril; Milei en Milken Institute Beverly Hills miércoles — pitch a inversores; Adorni file paralelo continúa; MERVAL +4.42% to 2,881,352 (+122,096 pts) — strongest single day in months, RSI 47.95 desde mínimos; April CPI May 14 = binary test; Pagano detention petition vs Adorni resta pendiente ante juez Lijo; Tabar declared US$245K cash off the books

What Happened

• —The feud: Domingo Cavallo, the architect of the 1990s convertibility plan, told streaming programme Ahora Play on Tuesday that current Economy Minister Luis Caputo is a trader without theory and demanded full liberalisation of the peso, warning that the present FX architecture raises the probability of a 2027 currency crisis. Caputo replied within hours on X: if there is resentment, try not to show it. President Milei piled on, citing the 1989 Plan Bonex, the 2001 corralito, and the AFJP-era pension-fund seizures as features of Cavallo’s own policy record. The substantive question is whether Argentina should fully float the peso now or keep gradually opening the controlled market. The macro context favours Caputo for now: the BCRA has accumulated US$6.5 billion year-to-date, country risk has compressed from 613 to 558 basis points, and Fitch upgraded Argentina at the end of April. Coverage: Cavallo-Milei feud analysis.
• —The market vote: The MERVAL closed Wednesday at 2,881,352, up 4.42% or 122,096 points — the strongest single-session move in months and a clear repricing as President Milei landed in Beverly Hills for the Milken Institute Global Conference. The RSI lifted to 47.95 from oversold territory; the Tenkan-Kijun cloud bottom held. The market read: investors expect the Milken pitch to land, the disinflation thesis to survive the cabinet noise, and the Adorni file — Diputada Marcela Pagano’s detention petition against Cabinet Chief Manuel Adorni still pending before judge Lijo — to remain a political rather than macro variable. Contractor Matías Tabar’s US$245,000 cash declaration on the Indio Cuá refurbishment remains the document of record. The April CPI print on May 14 is the binary that determines whether the disinflation narrative outlives the cabinet question — a print starting with a 2 consolidates the rally; a print starting with a 3 reverses it. Coverage: Adorni probe deepens.

OUTLOOK: WATCH

Costa Rica: Chaves Becomes Minister Under Fernández in Unprecedented Continuity

Tue May 5: Laura Fernández presentó gabinete desde Teatro Melico Salazar 11:00 AM, asume Friday May 8; Rodrigo Chaves nombrado Min Presidencia + Min Hacienda — preserva inmunidad hasta 2030; concentración de poder sin precedentes; 22 de 39 figuras carryover Chaves; Manuel Tovar COMEX→Cancillería; Indiana Trejos viceministra→COMEX titular; VP Douglas Soto = embajador en Washington; carryovers: Roger Madrigal (BCR hasta 2027), Karla Montero (Recope), Mónica Taylor (CCSS), Gabriela Chacón (INS); nuevos: Alexander Sánchez (Salud), Roy Thompson (Trabajo), Milagro Solórzano (Economía), Carolina Delgado (INAMU); 2do VP Francisco Gamboa coordina asuntos económicos; Fernández: “Sería mezquino abandonar el camino de bienestar construido por don Rodrigo”; juramentación Friday Estadio Nacional

What Happened

• —President-elect Laura Fernández announced her cabinet from the Teatro Melico Salazar in San José on Tuesday May 5 and confirmed an arrangement without precedent in Costa Rican democratic history: outgoing President Rodrigo Chaves will become Minister of the Presidency and Minister of Hacienda when she takes office Friday May 8 at the Estadio Nacional juramentación. The dual-portfolio role preserves Chaves’ immunity through 2030 and concentrates economic and political coordination in the figure that just left the presidency. Twenty-two of the thirty-nine cabinet posts carry over from the Chaves administration. Manuel Tovar shifts from Comex to the Cancillería; Indiana Trejos rises from viceministra to COMEX titular. Vice President Douglas Soto will simultaneously serve as Costa Rica’s ambassador in Washington — Fernández framed it as a moment in which the relationship with the United States is key. Carry-overs include Roger Madrigal at the BCCR (mandate runs through 2027), Karla Montero at Recope, Mónica Taylor at the CCSS, and Gabriela Chacón at the INS. Newly named ministers include Alexander Sánchez (Salud, ex-CCSS gerente médico), Roy Thompson (Trabajo), Milagro Solórzano (Economía), and Carolina Delgado (INAMU, ex-PLN). Second VP Francisco Gamboa will coordinate economic affairs. Fernández’s framing on the day: It would be petty to abandon the path of well-being built by don Rodrigo.

OUTLOOK: WATCH

Colombia: Murillo Joins Cepeda; BBVA Shorts the Peso

Wed May 6 10:00 AM Bogotá: Luis Gilberto Murillo (ex-Foreign Minister, polled 0.3%) declinó candidatura independiente, joined Cepeda Pacto Histórico Alianza por la Vida en Hotel Tequendama — 3rd ex-candidate after Sen Clara López + ex-Min Juan Fernando Cristo; AtlasIntel/Semana May 6: Cepeda 37.4%, De la Espriella 29.4%, Valencia 20.9% — De la Espriella surging; campo final 12 candidatos en boleta impresa; BBVA Cuadrado team Tue May 5 recomendó SHORT COP via 3-month dollar-call options strikes 3,750 + 4,000 — fiscal deterioration + electoral risk; Banrep Apr 30 unanimous hold 11.25% (vs cons +50-75 bp); COP −2.95% semanal a 3,707 close, 2nd most devalued world per Finxard; Procuraduría escalates 2025 financing investigation Cepeda; T-24 first round; T-31 runoff Jun 21; ELN restated Pacto Nacional proposal; COLCAP +0.73% to 2,187.45

What Happened

• —The endorsement: Former Foreign Minister Luis Gilberto Murillo declined his independent presidential candidacy at the Hotel Tequendama in Bogotá at 10:00 AM Wednesday and joined Iván Cepeda’s Pacto Histórico Alianza por la Vida coalition. Murillo had polled at roughly 0.3% in the Guarumo and EcoAnalítica April survey, but his strategic value lies in expanding the Cepeda coalition toward centrist and liberal voters and adding diplomatic credibility from his time as Petro’s foreign minister. He becomes the third ex-presidential candidate to consolidate behind Cepeda after Senator Clara López and former Interior Minister Juan Fernando Cristo. The latest AtlasIntel poll for Semana, also published May 6, places Cepeda at 37.4%, Abelardo de la Espriella at 29.4%, and Paloma Valencia at 20.9% — De la Espriella has surged in the closing stretch, sharpening the race for the 50% plus one threshold needed to avoid a runoff. Coverage: Murillo drops bid, joins Cepeda.
• —The trade: BBVA’s strategy team led by Alejandro Cuadrado recommended Tuesday May 5 that clients take a short position on the Colombian peso through three-month dollar-call options at strike prices around 3,750 and 4,000 pesos per dollar, citing fiscal deterioration and the lead-up to the May 31 election. The recommendation followed Banco de la República’s unanimous decision on April 30 to hold the policy rate at 11.25% — against analyst expectations of a 50 to 75 basis-point hike. The hold triggered a 2.95% weekly devaluation of the peso to 3,707 on Monday, with the platform Finxard ranking it the world’s second most devalued currency last week. The Procuraduría is separately escalating its examination of Cepeda’s 2025 internal-consultation campaign financing — the file rests on a complaint that contributor Samat Publicidad SAS must document the origin of its funds. The COLCAP added 0.73% Wednesday to 2,187.45 with the RSI at 41.13, range-bound. Coverage: BBVA shorts Colombian peso.

RISK: CRITICAL

Venezuela: Morgan Stanley Sees +16% PDVSA Upside; TotalEnergies Locks Port Arthur Deal

Tue May 5 / Wed May 6: OFAC General License 58 — covers state + PDVSA + 50%+ subsidiaries, 10-day reporting, prohibits actors with Russia/Irán/China/Cuba/N.Korea ties; permite asesoría/preparación, no autoriza transacciones; Morgan Stanley (May 6): PDVSA bonds +16% upside, sov bonds +9% en oil-recovery scenario, US$70/bbl LT price, calls PDVSA 2021/2022/2035 “cheapest”; sov 2027 cerró 55.53¢ (9-yr high), PDVSA 2037 40.10¢; Citgo: Treasury extended creditor protection Mon May 5 — new license replaces March one, valid Jun 19; TotalEnergies CFO Jean-Pierre Sbraire confirmó deal “about to” sign con PDVSA — destination Port Arthur Texas refinery (238K bpd capacity); S&P: “credible economic plan tied to oil-production recovery key for restructuring success”; Citi/MS estimates total liabilities US$150-170B; FMI restablecido relaciones; Delcy Rodríguez encargada

What Happened

• —The MS call: Morgan Stanley wrote in a Wednesday note that Venezuelan PDVSA bonds carry up to 16% additional upside and sovereign bonds 9% in an oil-production recovery scenario, using a long-term price of US$70 per barrel and acknowledging that the current war environment could sustain higher prices. The bank flagged PDVSA 2021, PDVSA 6% 2022, and PDVSA 2035 as the cheapest names within its valuation framework, noting that some PDVSA bonds continue to trade at significant discounts to sovereigns despite likely receiving similar treatment in a future restructuring. The note followed OFAC General License 58, issued Tuesday May 5, which covers the Venezuelan state, PDVSA, and any 50%-or-greater subsidiary; imposes a 10-day contract-reporting requirement; and prohibits any actor with material ties to Russia, Iran, China, Cuba, or North Korea. The license authorises evaluation, development, and preparation of restructuring options — but explicitly not transactions. Sovereign 2027s closed at 55.53¢ (a nine-year high) and PDVSA 2037s at 40.10¢ on Bloomberg indicative pricing.
• —The Total deal + Citgo extension: TotalEnergies CFO Jean-Pierre Sbraire confirmed Wednesday the French major has advanced in negotiations and is about to sign some commercial contracts with Venezuela. The destination for the heavy crude is Total’s Port Arthur refinery in Texas, which has a processing capacity of approximately 238,000 barrels per day. The announcement places TotalEnergies alongside Hunt Oil, Crossover Energy, ENI’s Junín-5 expansion, BP’s Delta Amacuro return, and Chevron in the post-Maduro contract architecture. Separately, the US Treasury issued a new general license Monday extending Citgo’s protection from creditor execution; the new license replaces the March issuance and is valid from June 19. S&P framed the path forward in a credit note Wednesday: a credible economic plan tied to the recovery of oil production, alongside sound fiscal and monetary policies, is key to the success of restructuring negotiations. Total external liabilities continue to be estimated between US$150 and US$170 billion. Background: Venezuela’s dual oil-revenue audit framework.

OUTLOOK: BULLISH

Ecuador: $1B Bond at 8.5%, Seven Times Oversubscribed

Wed May 6: Ecuador colocó US$1 billón reapertura bonos 2034/2039 a tasa promedio 8.5% — 50 bp tighter que emisión enero (8.975%); demanda US$7B = 7x oversubscribed; segunda emisión de 2026 tras retorno histórico enero (US$4B); riesgo país cayó a 404 bp May 6 (desde 411 May 5) — mínimo 11 años; Min Sariha Moya en lanzamiento CAF Estrategia País Ecuador 2025-2029 May 5 Quito; FMI aprobó revisión programa abril con desembolso US$394M; Noboa estrategia: ajuste fiscal, reducción del Estado, reformas combustibles; quinto toque de queda nine provincias hasta May 18; aranceles Colombia 100%→75%; analista Acosta Burneo: “ventana oportuna” abierta; tasa baja debido a war oil price boost + AI commodity demand

What Happened

• —Ecuador’s Ministerio de Economía y Finanzas placed US$1 billion in a reopening of its 2034 and 2039 sovereign bonds on Wednesday May 6 at an average yield of 8.5% — 50 basis points tighter than the January 2026 emission at 8.975%. Demand reached US$7 billion, seven times the offered amount. Country risk dropped to 404 basis points on May 6, compressed from 411 the prior session and the lowest reading in eleven years. The transaction is the second international issuance of 2026 after the historic US$4 billion January return, which marked Ecuador’s first sovereign issuance in seven years. Economy Minister Sariha Moya was present at the CAF Estrategia País Ecuador 2025-2029 launch in Quito on May 5. The IMF approved the latest programme review in April with a US$394 million disbursement. Economist Alberto Acosta Burneo characterised the timing as an opportunity window opened by the combination of war-driven oil revenues and the AI-era commodity demand cycle that benefits Ecuador’s primary export base. The fifth Noboa-era curfew (Decreto 370) runs through May 18 across nine provinces; the 100% tariff on Colombian imports was reduced to 75% three days into the original rate. Coverage: Ecuador second sovereign issuance.

OUTLOOK: BULLISH

Bolivia: 64 Blockades, Túpac Katari Goes Indefinite, Paz at 6-Month Exhaustion

Wed May 6 midday: 64 active road blockages (vs 65 peak Tuesday) per ABC transit map; 8 of 9 departments affected — solo Pando moviendo libremente; Túpac Katari indefinite blockade across La Paz 20 provinces from midnight Wed; choferes leader Lucio Gómez accepted dialogue invite from Min Obras Públicas Mauricio Zamora at Casa Grande del Pueblo 13:00 May 6; routes to Argentina/Chile/Perú cut; La Paz 5 strategic corridors locked: Desaguadero, Copacabana, Caranavi, Río Abajo, La Paz-Oruro; truck-driver demands: regular diesel, quality gasoline, vehicle damage compensation; CSUTCB demanda abrogación Ley 1720 + Ley 157 + shelving “anti-blockade law”; Paz reconoció YPFB “corrupción y mezquinos intereses heredados”; analista Carlos Moldiz: Paz facing “premature exhaustion” of legitimacy at 6-month mark; World Bank −1.1% PIB 2026, CEPAL +0.5%; dólar paralelo Bs 9.64-10.50

What Happened

• —Bolivia counted 64 active road blockages by midday Wednesday — slightly below the Tuesday peak of 65 — with eight of nine departments affected (only Pando moving freely), per the Administradora Boliviana de Carreteras transit map. The Federación Túpac Katari activated an indefinite blockade across the twenty provinces of La Paz department from midnight Wednesday, sustaining pressure beyond the 24-hour truck-driver strike that closed routes to Argentina, Chile, and Peru on Tuesday. Five strategic La Paz corridors are locked: Desaguadero (Peru border), Copacabana, Caranavi, Río Abajo, and the La Paz-Oruro axis. Truck-driver leader Lucio Gómez accepted a dialogue invitation from Public Works Minister Mauricio Zamora at the Casa Grande del Pueblo for 13:00 May 6; the union’s three demands centre on regular diesel supply, quality gasoline after months of contamination complaints, and economic compensation for vehicle damage. The Confederación Sindical Única de Trabajadores Campesinos de Bolivia (CSUTCB) is separately demanding the abrogation of Law 1720 (small-to-medium landholding conversion) and Law 157, plus the shelving of the so-called anti-blockade law. President Rodrigo Paz acknowledged YPFB management failures linked to corruption and petty interests inherited from prior administrations. Analyst Carlos Moldiz warned of premature exhaustion of Paz’s governmental legitimacy at the six-month mark. The World Bank projects a 1.1% GDP contraction for Bolivia in 2026 against CEPAL’s 0.5% expansion call; the parallel-market dollar trades between Bs 9.64 and Bs 10.50.

RISK: CRITICAL

Chile: IMF Cuts 2026 GDP to 2.2% as Stagflation Framing Hardens

Mon May 4 / Tue May 5: FMI Misión Artículo IV recortó proyección PIB 2026 2.4%→2.2%, 2027 2.5%; “inflación superará temporalmente la meta durante 2026 e inicios 2027” oil-driven; Imacec marzo −0.1% (3er negativo consecutivo, peor desde 2T 2023); Q1 2026 contracción 0.3%; producción de bienes −5.2%, minería −6.5%, manufactura débil; desempleo Q1 8.9%, mujeres 10%+; FMI: BCCh “should be prepared to tighten” si oil drives second-round wage effects; Min Salud Chomalí cortes 2.5% (vs 3% Hacienda demanda), 52 programas preservados; Joaquín Lavín León formalizado fraude al fisco; CFA expuso 9 riesgos directos Plan Reconstrucción Nacional ante Cámara Hacienda; Min Vivienda Poduje aceptó cortes 15% Quiroz; Pulso Ciudadano Kast 29.1% mínimo término; CRAMSA US$5B desalación aprobada; IPSA +2.30% to 10,937.19 ignoró malas noticias macro

What Happened

• —The IMF’s Article IV mission to Chile cut the 2026 GDP forecast from 2.4% to 2.2% and revised 2027 down to 2.5% in its statement following the consultation, warning that inflation will temporarily exceed the target during 2026 and the beginning of 2027 on oil pass-through. The Imacec for March came in at −0.1%, the third consecutive negative reading and confirming a Q1 2026 contraction of 0.3% — the worst quarterly performance since the second quarter of 2023. The production-of-goods component fell 5.2%, with mining −6.5% on lower copper extraction. Unemployment closed Q1 at 8.9%, above 10% for women. The Fund flagged that the Banco Central de Chile should be prepared to tighten monetary policy if the oil shock generates second-round effects in wages. Stagflation framing has hardened across opinion media (CIPER Chile, BiobioChile, eldespertar.cl, XTB Latam Research). Health Minister May Chomalí announced a 2.5% budget cut (against the 3% Hacienda had instructed), preserving the 52 active Minsal programmes. Joaquín Lavín León was formally charged with fraude al fisco. The Consejo Fiscal Autónomo presented its analysis of the Plan de Reconstrucción Nacional to the Cámara’s Hacienda commission Tuesday, identifying nine direct risks including the corporate-tax cut from 27% to 23%, the employment tax credit, and the VAT exemption on new housing. President Kast’s approval marked 29.1% in the latest Pulso Ciudadano — the lowest reading of his term. Despite the macro deterioration, the IPSA closed Wednesday up 2.30% at 10,937.19. Background: CRAMSA $5B desalination approval.

RISK: CRITICAL

Regional Snapshot

What to Watch This Week

• —Thu May 7: STF resumes ADI 4917 royalties merits judgment, Cármen Lúcia vote · Banxico decision 13:00 CST (consensus −25 bp to 6.50%) · Mexico April CPI · Bradesco Q1 after B3 close · US Initial Jobless Claims · Bolivia choferes-Zamora dialogue 13:00 Casa Grande del Pueblo
• —Fri May 8: Costa Rica’s Laura Fernández juramentación at Estadio Nacional, Chaves takes Min Presidencia + Hacienda · US nonfarm payrolls April · Brazil March industrial production
• —Mon May 11: Petrobras Q1 financial results (after B3 close); webcast May 12
• —Wed May 14: INDEC Argentina April CPI (binary for disinflation thesis) · JNE Peru official runoff results due
• —Mon May 18: Ecuador curfew (Decreto 370) expires · Banxico minutes May 21
• —Week of May 25: Mexico-US T-MEC formal negotiation phase opens
• —Sun May 31: Colombia presidential first round · Sun Jun 7: Peru runoff · Sun Jun 21: Colombia possible runoff · Sun Oct 4: Brazil general election

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the STF royalties decision on May 7, 2026 and how much does Rio de Janeiro stand to lose?

The Supreme Federal Court resumes Thursday May 7 the merits judgment on Law 12.734/2012, the 2012 oil-royalties redistribution suspended for thirteen years under Justice Cármen Lúcia’s 2013 injunction (ADI 4917). Cármen Lúcia votes today as relatora. Rio de Janeiro state revised its 2026 exposure to roughly R$26 billion — far above earlier estimates — because war-driven oil prices doubled the projected royalty pool from R$107 billion to R$146 billion. Rio produces 86% of national petroleum and 76% of gas. The CNM has proposed a seven-year transition window.

What is Banxico expected to decide on May 7, 2026?

Banco de México decides Thursday May 7 at 13:00 CST. Consensus among economists points to a 25 basis-point cut to 6.50%, which would close a 14-cut, 450 basis-point easing cycle that began in March 2024. Banorte expects an 18-month hold to follow; JPMorgan and BBVA Research align with the 6.50% terminal call. April CPI prints the same morning, with consensus at 4.59% headline and 4.45% core.

Why did Argentina’s MERVAL surge 4.42% on May 6, 2026?

The MERVAL closed at 2,881,352 on May 6, up 4.42% or 122,096 points — the strongest single-session move in months. The rally came as President Milei landed in Beverly Hills for the Milken Institute Global Conference, with markets pricing in a successful investor pitch. Domingo Cavallo and Luis Caputo escalated a public feud over peso liberalisation on May 5: Cavallo called Caputo “a trader without theory”; Caputo replied “if there is resentment, try not to show it.” The BCRA accumulated US$6.5 billion year-to-date, country risk compressed from 613 to 558 basis points, and Fitch upgraded Argentina at the end of April.

What is the unprecedented arrangement in Costa Rica’s incoming Fernández government?

President-elect Laura Fernández announced May 5 that outgoing President Rodrigo Chaves will become Minister of the Presidency and Minister of Hacienda when she takes office Friday May 8. The arrangement preserves Chaves’ immunity through 2030 and represents an unprecedented concentration of post-presidential power in Costa Rica. Twenty-two of thirty-nine cabinet figures carry over from the Chaves administration. Vice President Douglas Soto will simultaneously serve as Costa Rica’s ambassador in Washington. Manuel Tovar shifts from Comex to the Cancillería.

How is the Colombia presidential race positioned 24 days before the first round?

Former Foreign Minister Luis Gilberto Murillo dropped his independent candidacy on May 6 at 10:00 AM in Bogotá and joined Iván Cepeda’s Pacto Histórico Alianza por la Vida coalition — the third candidate after Senator Clara López and ex-Interior Minister Juan Fernando Cristo to consolidate behind Cepeda. The latest AtlasIntel poll for Semana places Cepeda at 37.4%, Abelardo de la Espriella at 29.4%, and Paloma Valencia at 20.9%. BBVA’s Alejandro Cuadrado recommended Tuesday that clients short the Colombian peso through three-month dollar-call options at 3,750 and 4,000 strike levels.

What did Morgan Stanley say about Venezuelan bonds on May 6, 2026?

Morgan Stanley sees additional upside of up to 16% in PDVSA bonds and around 9% in Venezuelan sovereign bonds in an oil-production recovery scenario, using a long-term price of US$70 per barrel. The bank flagged PDVSA 2021, PDVSA 6% 2022, and PDVSA 2035 as the cheapest names within its valuation. The note followed OFAC General License 58 issued May 5, which authorises legal and financial advisors for Venezuela and PDVSA to prepare restructuring options. Sovereign 2027s closed at 55.53 cents (a nine-year high) and PDVSA 2037s at 40.10 cents.

How did Ecuador’s second sovereign bond issue of 2026 go?

Ecuador placed US$1 billion in a reopening of its 2034 and 2039 sovereign bonds on May 6 at an average yield of 8.5%, 50 basis points tighter than the January 2026 emission at 8.975%. Demand reached US$7 billion, seven times the offered amount. Country risk dropped to 404 basis points on May 6, an eleven-year low. The transaction was the second international issuance of 2026 after the US$4 billion return in January following a seven-year absence from international capital markets.

Updated: 2026-05-07T07:30:00Z by Matias Sebastian Lopez · Latin American Pulse Issue Nº 23

Read More from The Rio Times

• Argentina Stocks Surge 4.42% as Capitulation Triggers Recovery
• Argentina Wins First Fitch Upgrade Under Milei to B- as Reforms Land
• Argentina FX Feud: Cavallo, Milei and Caputo Trade Public Insults