Copom Cuts Selic to 14.50% — Unanimous, Second Consecutive Reduction — Fed Holds at 3.50-3.75% in Powell’s Final Meeting as Chair — Adorni Testifies All Day: “I Will Not Resign, I Committed No Crime” — Milei Attended from Balcony in Unprecedented Show of Support — Colombia Hits 48 Massacres by End of April, Worst Year Since Systematic Tracking Began — Venezuela: US-Contracted Auditor Monitors Every Barrel of Oil Revenue Under Dual-Oversight System — Cargill’s Brazil Operations Swing to $340 Million Profit — Vale Q1 Profit Surges 36% as Base Metals EBITDA More Than Doubles
Executive Summary
The Big Picture: Today’s Latin American Pulse covers the most consequential 24 hours of the hemisphere’s April. Brazil’s Copom cut the Selic 25 basis points to 14.50% — the second consecutive reduction, unanimous — while warning that “Middle East conflict uncertainty” and inflation expectations above the target ceiling constrain the easing path. Hours earlier, the Federal Reserve held at 3.50-3.75% in what was Jerome Powell’s final meeting as chair, with Kevin Warsh expected to assume the role pending confirmation. The “Superquarta” double decision — both central banks moving on the same day — delivered the consensus outcome but left June guidance deliberately absent: the Copom’s statement signals that further cuts depend entirely on oil, the war, and whether IPCA expectations (now at 4.9% for 2026) begin to retreat. This is part of The Rio Times‘ comprehensive coverage of Latin American financial markets and economic developments.
In Buenos Aires, Manuel Adorni survived the most politically charged congressional session of the Milei presidency. The Cabinet Chief testified for the full day before the Cámara de Diputados, answered 2,151 questions in writing out of 4,800 filed, and declared: “I will not resign. I committed no crime and I will prove it in court.” In an unprecedented gesture, President Milei watched from the balcony alongside Karina Milei and the entire cabinet — no Argentine president has ever attended a cabinet chief’s congressional testimony. The opposition brought popcorn. A UCR deputy handed Adorni a copy of the Constitution. Milei shouted “Corruptos son ustedes!” as he left. The MERVAL fell 1.07% after the session.
Beyond the institutional theatre, the hemisphere’s structural stories advanced. Colombia recorded 48 massacres by the end of April — on pace for the worst year since Indepaz tracking began — with the Paz Total framework effectively collapsed as a deterrent five weeks before the May 31 election. Venezuela confirmed a US-contracted auditing firm is monitoring every barrel of oil revenue under a dual-oversight system. And Q1 earnings season delivered two landmark results: Cargill’s Brazil operations swung to a $340 million profit, and Vale’s net income surged 36% as base metals EBITDA more than doubled — the war’s commodity windfall flowing directly into corporate bottom lines.
Copom Cuts to 14.50% — Fed Holds in Powell’s Last Meeting
Wed Apr 29 18h30 BRT: Copom cut 25bps from 14.75% to 14.50% — unanimous, 2nd consecutive cut; comunicado: “ambiente externo incerto, conflito geopolítico no Oriente Médio”; Focus IPCA 2026 at 4.9%, 2027 at 4.0% — both above target; IPCA-15 dovish surprise 0.89% (vs 1.00% consensus); no June forward guidance; “mais cortes se cenário permitir”; Fed held 3.50-3.75% at 14:00 EDT — Powell’s final meeting; Warsh nomination pending; Brent $110+; UAE quit OPEC effective May 1
What Happened
- —The cut: The Copom delivered its second consecutive 25 basis-point reduction, bringing the Selic from 14.75% to 14.50% in a unanimous decision. The comunicado acknowledged the war’s inflationary pressure explicitly: “The external environment remains uncertain, due to the indefinition regarding the duration, extension, and consequences of the geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East, with repercussions on global financial conditions.” Focus IPCA expectations for 2026 have climbed to 4.9% — well above the 4.50% ceiling — and 4.0% for 2027. The IPCA-15 mid-month print at 0.89% (below the 1.00% consensus) provided the dovish cover the BCB needed, but the statement offered no forward guidance for June, leaving the next move entirely data-dependent. As our Morning Call previewed, the cut was the consensus outcome — the statement language was the real signal.
- —Powell’s farewell: The Federal Reserve held at 3.50-3.75% in what was Jerome Powell’s final FOMC meeting as chair. His term ends May 15, with Trump nominee Kevin Warsh expected to assume the role. The hold was near-universally expected (>90% CME FedWatch), but the combination of a dovish Copom cut and a neutral Fed hold is constructive for Brazilian carry-trade flows — the spread remains wide enough to attract dollar-funded positions into the real. The “Superquarta” — both decisions on the same day — delivered the best-case outcome for Brazilian assets: easing domestically, stability internationally.
Key Watch
June Copom — will they cut again or pause? Oil trajectory under UAE-OPEC exit. Focus IPCA trend. Warsh confirmation timeline. Petrobras Q1 production report today (Thu Apr 30). Ibovespa reaction to Superquarta at 184,750 (6th consecutive drop).
OUTLOOK: WATCH
Adorni: “I Will Not Resign” — Milei Attended in Unprecedented Move
Wed Apr 29: Adorni testified all day before Cámara de Diputados; 4,800 questions filed, 2,151 answered in writing; “I committed no crime and I will prove it in court”; Milei + Karina + entire cabinet watched from balcony — unprecedented in Argentine history (22 cabinet chiefs since 1994, no president ever attended); Tailhade: “35 vacation days in 6 months, all cash”; Bregman: “Why did Milei throw himself on the grenade?”; Grabois: “chorro y cagón”; UCR deputy handed Adorni a copy of the Constitution; socialist deputy brought popcorn; Adorni accused kirchnerismo of “golpista operation”; Milei shouted “Corruptos son ustedes!” while leaving; MERVAL −1.07% after session
What Happened
- —The testimony: Cabinet Chief Manuel Adorni appeared before the Chamber of Deputies for the constitutionally mandated management report — but the session was consumed by the enrichment scandal. He read his prepared statement, defended the government’s economic record, and addressed the accusations directly: the Miami trip with his wife on the presidential flight was “duly authorised,” the fiscal archived the case, and the State has no record of payments for his personal travel. On the Punta del Este weekend, the government claimed there is no obligation to register it. On the Marcelo Grandio TV Pública contracts, Adorni denied involvement. On his patrimony, he declared all assets are registered with the Oficina Anticorrupción. He closed with: “I will not resign. I committed no crime and I will prove it in court.” Opposition leader Germán Martínez responded: “This session should never have existed — you should have resigned first. In 22 cabinet chiefs since 1994, no president has ever had to come defend one.” Tailhade detailed 35 vacation days in six months, all paid in cash — “incompatible with declared income.” Bregman asked why Milei “threw himself on the grenade.” Adorni accused the opposition of running a “golpista operation.”
- —The spectacle: The session’s most defining feature was Milei himself. The president occupied a balcony seat alongside Karina Milei, Economy Minister Luis Caputo, Sandra Pettovello, Chancellor Pablo Quirno, Federico Sturzenegger, Santiago Caputo, and the rest of the cabinet — a show of force that no Argentine president has ever deployed for a cabinet chief’s congressional appearance. Milei was “ovacionado” by LLA deputies upon entering. When leaving, he shouted “Corruptos son ustedes!” at opposition lawmakers. Socialist deputy Esteban Paulón sat with a bag of popcorn — referencing Chamber president Martín Menem’s prediction that the session would be “picante.” UCR deputy Pablo Juliano silently handed Adorni a copy of the Constitution. As we previewed, the political outcome was reputational damage without institutional consequence — no censure vote was possible without a Labor Parlamentaria. The MERVAL fell 1.07% after the session, confirming the “Scenario B” our MERVAL analysis had outlined.
Key Watch
Judge Lijo ruling on bank secrecy findings. Adorni removal timeline. Milei post-testimony pivot (spoke at Expo EFI Wednesday night: “Volveremos a hacer grande a la Argentina”). Press ban status. May 14 INDEC CPI. MERVAL support at 2,800K.
RISK: CRITICAL
Colombia: 48 Massacres in Four Months — Paz Total Collapsed
Indepaz: 48 massacres by end of April — over half the 54-case 2025 total; Q1: 35 massacres, 133 victims (vs 16 in Q1 2025, +119%); one every 3 days; 17 departments; targeting shifted to mass-casualty civilian attacks; Paz Total “collapsed as deterrent”; Cajibío 20 dead; May 31 election = referendum on security policy; Invamer: Cepeda 44%, Valencia 20%, De la Espriella 18%
What Happened
- —As we reported, Colombia’s collective-homicide trajectory has crossed a structural threshold that redefines the May 31 election. Indepaz documented 48 massacres in just four months — already over half the entire 2025 total — placing the country on pace for more than 90 cases by year-end. Q1 alone registered 35 massacres with 133 victims, a 119% increase over Q1 2025. Three shifts distinguish this crisis: geographic expansion across 17 departments, a pivot from selective leader-targeting to mass-casualty civilian attacks, and the effective collapse of the Paz Total framework as a deterrent. The Cajibío massacre — 20 dead on the Panamericana — was part of 26 attacks in just two days. Invamer polling shows Cepeda leading at 44% but the election is now a referendum on whether Petro’s negotiated-settlement approach has any remaining credibility. The first Cauca suspect was arrested this week; the $1.4M reward for “Marlón” and $5B COP for Mordisco remain outstanding.
RISK: CRITICAL
Venezuela: US Auditor Monitors Every Barrel — Dual Oversight Confirmed
Mon Apr 27: BCV President Pérez González confirmed Trump contracted private auditing firm for all oil sales revenue; Caracas separately contracted second auditor for “imparciality”; Trump: “I am in charge of Venezuela and the sale of its oil”; PDVSA 1.1M bpd; Chevron, ENI (new gas+crude agreement signed this week), Repsol operating under new licenses; CPI 475%, min wage $0.27; Delcy: May 1 wage adjustment; 5.7M pensioners vs 5.3M workers
What Happened
- —As we reported, Venezuela’s post-Maduro economic architecture now operates under the most transparent revenue-monitoring system in the country’s history — and the most constrained. The Trump administration’s privately contracted auditing firm monitors every barrel of oil sold, every dollar received, every transaction processed. Caracas has its own auditor running in parallel, creating a dual-oversight architecture that converts Trump’s declaration that he is “in charge of Venezuela and the sale of its oil” from rhetoric into operational reality. PDVSA production has reached 1.1 million barrels per day. ENI signed a new gas and crude agreement this week, expanding European investment alongside Chevron and Repsol. The National Assembly’s hydrocarbon law reform allows direct contracts without joint ventures. But the human numbers remain devastating: CPI at 475%, minimum wage at $0.27, and more pensioners (5.7 million) than active workers (5.3 million). Delcy Rodríguez announced a “responsible” minimum wage adjustment for May 1 — Workers’ Day.
OUTLOOK: WATCH
Cargill Brazil Swings to $340 Million Profit
Cargill’s Brazilian operations reported a $340M profit swing — reversing prior-period losses; driven by commodity-price elevation across soy, corn, sugar, and beef; Hormuz disruption rerouted global grain flows through Brazil; record Q1 agribusiness exports; BTG trade surplus revised to $90B; crude exports to China +94% value, +122% volume in Q1
What Happened
- —Cargill’s Brazilian operations swung to a $340 million profit — a result that crystallises how the Iran war’s disruption of global commodity flows is rewarding the hemisphere’s agricultural powerhouse. The swing was driven by elevated prices across Cargill’s entire Brazilian portfolio: soybeans, corn, sugar, and beef all traded at premiums as Hormuz shipping disruptions rerouted global grain and protein flows through South American corridors. The result sits alongside Brazil’s record Q1 agribusiness exports — with crude exports to China nearly doubling (+94% value, +122% volume) — and BTG Pactual’s revised trade surplus forecast of $90 billion. For the broader Brazilian economy, Cargill’s numbers confirm that the war dividend is real, durable, and flowing through corporate earnings in ways that support tax revenue, employment, and the current-account balance. The structural question remains whether these gains survive a Hormuz reopening — or whether Brazil’s commodity infrastructure has permanently captured market share from Middle Eastern and Central Asian competitors.
OUTLOOK: BULLISH
Vale Q1: Profit +36%, Base Metals EBITDA More Than Doubles
Vale (VALE3) Q1 2026: net income $1.893B (+36% YoY), reversing $3.844B Q4 loss; revenue $9.258B (+14%); EBITDA $3.83B (missed $3.96B consensus); iron ore sales 68.7Mt — best Q1 since 2018; Base Metals EBITDA +116% to ~$1.2B; nickel EBITDA +576%; copper benefiting from energy-transition demand; C1 cash cost $23.6/t (+12%) on BRL appreciation; conference call Wed Apr 29
What Happened
- —As we reported, Vale delivered a Q1 that transforms the investment thesis. Net income of $1.893 billion (+36%) reversed the $3.844 billion Q4 loss that had been distorted by a nickel impairment. Revenue reached $9.258 billion (+14%). Iron ore sales of 68.7 million tonnes were the best Q1 since 2018. But the headline within the headline is base metals: EBITDA surged 116% to approximately $1.2 billion, with nickel alone jumping 576% — moving from near-breakeven to material profit contributor. The shift reflects the dramatic swing in nickel pricing after the 2023–2025 collapse, combined with copper’s structural demand from the energy transition. EBITDA of $3.83 billion missed the $3.96 billion consensus, primarily because a 5.5% real appreciation inflated BRL-denominated costs when translated to dollars, pushing C1 cash cost to $23.6/t (+12%). The conference call on Wednesday provided further colour on cost dynamics and the Serra Sul +20 ramp-up. For the broader Brazilian export story, Vale’s base metals surge parallels Cargill’s agricultural windfall — the war is creating winners across Brazil’s commodity complex.
OUTLOOK: BULLISH
Regional Snapshot
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Oil, OPEC & Earnings The UAE’s exit from OPEC effective May 1 sent Brent briefly above $112 — the biggest cartel rupture since Qatar’s 2019 departure. Abu Dhabi will produce without quotas, adding supply uncertainty to a market already destabilised by the Hormuz blockade. As our Global Economy Briefing detailed, the UAE move fragments the production-discipline framework that has anchored oil markets for decades. Neoenergia Q1 profit surged 28% as Iberdrola moves to 98% control. Brazil’s bank collapse cost the deposit insurance fund $11B. Abra accused American Airlines of plotting to control Azul. Petrobras Q1 production report drops today (Thu). Tomorrow is Dia do Trabalho — B3 closed. Previous Pulse editions. |
Elections, Cuba & Mexico Colombia’s May 31 election approaches with 127,000 military deployed and Cepeda at 44% in polls. Brazil’s October race tightens: Flávio 46% vs Lula 45%. Cuba rejected Trump’s prisoner ultimatum — deadline expired, Rubio silent, blackouts 20 hours daily. Peru’s F-16 cabinet crisis, ONPE institutional reset, and June 7 segunda vuelta proceed simultaneously. Mexico’s March exports surged on electronics manufacturing despite the triple security crisis. Argentina’s press ban remains in effect. Venezuela’s Delcy announces minimum wage adjustment tomorrow, Workers’ Day. Previous Pulse editions. |