Brazil’s Morning Call for Wednesday, April 29, 2026

Copom Decision Day · FOMC Decision · IPCA-15 Dovish Surprise · UAE Quits OPEC · Vale Q1 Mixed · War Day 60

Where We Left Off TUESDAY, APR 28 — SESSION CLOSE

Tuesday delivered the technical capitulation yesterday’s Morning Call warned was on the table. The Ibovespa opened at 189,578.50, traded steadily lower through the session, and printed an intraday low of 187,236.79 — within 39 points of the critical 187,197 SMA convergence support. The recovery from those lows back to a 188,618.69 close (−0.51%, −960.10 points) is the day’s most important technical signal: dip-buyers showed up exactly where the chartbook said they should. The MACD histogram deepened to −1,041.55 from −830.88 Monday — bearish momentum is still accelerating — but the price action defended the trend support. RSI at 46.11 versus MA at 62.47 confirms the momentum regime change is intact, not yet reversing. The cumulative loss from the 198,657 ATH now stands at 10,038 points (−5.05%). Five of the last six sessions have closed lower.

In the morning, IPCA-15 printed 0.89% MoM versus 1.00% consensus — the first soft inflation print since the war’s energy shock began. The trailing 12-month rate at 4.48% matched expectations. Energy and food remained the dominant pressure points, but the headline miss demonstrates that BRL strength below R$5.00 is materially absorbing the imported inflation transmission. The print provides the BCB the data cover for a 25bp cut today with measured forward guidance — and removes the worst-case scenario of a hawkish hold. CB Consumer Confidence beat at 92.8 versus 89 expected, with the Expectations sub-index improving to 72.2.

In New York, the AI trade absorbed two distinct shocks. First, the WSJ report that OpenAI missed internal targets for weekly users and revenue, with CFO Sarah Friar telling leadership she was concerned about the company’s ability to fund its data center commitments — sent every AI infrastructure proxy lower. Oracle dropped 5.2% (it had soared on OpenAI partnership news in 2025), Broadcom shed over 4%, AMD 3%, Nvidia 1.5%, Intel 1%. The semiconductor index recorded its biggest daily drop in a month after an 18-day winning streak. Second, the UAE — OPEC’s third-largest producer — announced it will leave the cartel effective May 1, citing the Hormuz blockade and growing dispute with Saudi production policy. This is the most significant OPEC defection in over 50 years. Brent surged to $112.70 intraday — highest since March 31 — before settling. The S&P 500 fell 0.49% to 7,138.80, breaking its 12-record streak; Nasdaq −0.9% to 24,663.80; Dow flat at 49,141.93 saved by Coca-Cola’s +3.9% on its earnings beat. Vale Q1 after-market: revenue $9.3B (+14% YoY), net income $1.89B (+36%), but EBITDA $3.83B missed the $3.96B consensus — a mixed result that confirmed iron ore volume strength but raised cost questions.

Market Snapshot DATA AS OF TUE, APR 28 CLOSE

What to Watch WEDNESDAY CATALYSTS

Today is the single most consequential trading session of 2026 to date. Three central bank decisions, the most important Brazilian inflation data of the cycle, US Q1 GDP advance, three Mag 7 earnings reports — all in roughly nine hours. The Copom decision lands at 17:30 BRT (note the calendar shift from typical 18:30). With IPCA-15 having printed soft yesterday, consensus has hardened around 25bp to 14.50%. The decisive variable is the post-decision communiqué language: “data dependence” with explicit retention of optionality versus “continued gradual easing if conditions warrant.” A measured-dovish guidance pushes the Ibovespa toward 191,500-192,500; a hawkish accent confirms the test of 187,200 support resumes.

The FOMC at 14:00 EDT (15:00 BRT) is consensus hold at 3.75%. The market is fully priced for the hold; the entire information content is in Powell’s 14:30 EDT press conference. With CB Consumer Confidence beating, oil at $99-100, Michigan inflation expectations at 4.8%, the OpenAI revenue concern, and UAE leaving OPEC, Powell’s task is to deflect every direction without committing. A hawkish Powell (“inflation expectations bear watching, no near-term cuts”) combined with the AI trade weakness could trigger a 1-2% S&P selloff that drags global EM, including Brazil, regardless of what Copom delivers earlier. A dovish Powell (“data dependent, awaiting clarity on energy pass-through”) provides risk-on tailwind into Brazilian close.

After-market in New York: Alphabet, Microsoft, Meta all report. These three plus Tuesday’s mixed Vale set the tone for Thursday’s reopen. Microsoft’s commentary on the OpenAI partnership restructuring (now non-exclusive) and on AI capex run-rate is the single highest-impact print of the week. Alphabet’s Cloud growth (BMO sees +44% to $84.8B for full year 2026) will tell the market whether the AI infrastructure thesis survives the OpenAI revenue scare. Meta’s capex guidance closes the trio. The German CPI at 08:00 BRT (cons 3.0% YoY vs prev 2.7%) is the largest European data point. BoC at 09:45 EDT — consensus hold at 2.25%. Vale’s conference call at the same time. The Ibovespa enters the session at 188,618 with the 187,237 support tested-and-held, IPCA-15 dovish in hand, the carry trade at R$4.97, and a Copom decision that sits just on the right side of dovish. The structure favors a stabilization day — but only if FOMC doesn’t break the trade.

Ibovespa Setup TECHNICAL LEVELS

Tuesday: O:189,578.50, H:189,578.50, L:187,236.79, C:188,618.69 (−0.51%, −960.10). Opening high, closed off the lows after testing the major 187,237 support. MACD histogram at −1,041.55, deepening from −830.88 Monday — bearish momentum is still accelerating. RSI at 46.11, MA at 62.47 — RSI deeply below MA, formal momentum regime change confirmed. The intraday recovery of 1,381 points from the lows is the bullish micro-signal: the 187,197 SMA convergence held its first test. The cumulative loss from 198,657 ATH stands at 10,038 points (−5.05%) — within striking distance of the 5% correction threshold technicians watch.

Resistance: 189,578 (Tuesday open / Monday close gap-fill) → 190,215 → 192,167 → 193,234 → 198,657 (ATH).

Support: 187,349 / 187,236 (Tuesday low / SMA convergence — TESTED AND HELD) → 187,197 (Kijun-Tenkan, major support) → 183,263 (lower Bollinger) → 160,294 (200-day).

Copom Watch SELIC AT 14.75% · DECISION TODAY 17:30 BRT

The Copom announces its decision at 17:30 BRT today. With IPCA-15 at 0.89% MoM versus 1.00% consensus, the BCB gained the data cover it needed for a measured 25bp cut to 14.50%. Yesterday’s print is the first soft inflation surprise since the war’s energy shock began — and validates the BRL strength channel as a working disinflationary force. The annual rate at 4.48% remains uncomfortably close to the 4.50% target ceiling, but the monthly miss tells the BCB that the Focus Survey’s de-anchored expectations are running ahead of the actual price data. That distinction — between expectations and realized inflation — is exactly what allows for cautious-but-continued easing.

Three scenarios remain, but probabilities have shifted. (1) Measured-dovish 25bp (~70% probability) — cut to 14.50% with language emphasizing “vigilance against secondary effects of energy prices” but retaining “continued gradual adjustment if the disinflation trajectory consolidates.” This validates the easing cycle, the Ibovespa recovers toward 191,000-192,500, and the front of the DI curve compresses 20-30bp. (2) Hawkish 25bp (~25%) — cut to 14.50% but with explicit emphasis on “asymmetric inflation risks” and removal of forward guidance. Tests 187,200 support; BRL holds. (3) Hold at 14.75% (~5%) — surprise pause citing UAE-OPEC and Brent at $112. Triggers 2%+ Ibovespa selloff toward 184,000-185,000.

The complicating factor is the FOMC three-and-a-half hours earlier. If Powell delivers a hawkish hold (“inflation expectations bear watching, energy pass-through requires patience”), the Copom may calibrate its own communiqué more cautiously to defend the BRL — even with IPCA-15 soft. Conversely, a dovish Powell (“transitory pass-through, awaiting evidence”) gives Galípolo’s BCB room for the most measured-dovish version of outcome (1). The interaction effect between the two decisions is the single most important variable for Brazilian rates traders today. Watch the FOMC statement language at 14:00 EDT and the Powell press conference at 14:30 EDT — they shape the Copom communiqué that lands 2 hours later.

Economic Calendar WEDNESDAY, APR 29

Latin America Markets TUESDAY CLOSE

Tuesday’s LatAm tape was the worst single-day breadth print in three weeks. Chile’s IPSA collapsed 2.02% to 10,905 — the breakdown of recent support after sessions of relative outperformance, with copper unable to insulate against Hormuz/UAE-OPEC contagion. Mexico’s IPC dropped 1.06% to 67,269, RSI now at 42.64 confirming the bearish regime. Colombia’s COLCAP fell another 1.02% to 2,167.42 — RSI at 33.91 is now in classical oversold territory and the index has carved a 5% drawdown over the past two weeks. Argentina’s MERVAL was the lone gainer (+0.12%) — the country-specific Milei macro story continues to dominate over regional flow. As covered in the latest LATAM Pulse, the Copom’s outcome today is the regional pivot point: a measured-dovish Brazilian cut would unlock a relief rally across the entire LatAm complex; a hawkish surprise extends the synchronized correction.

Commodities & FX KEY MOVES

Oil staged its biggest single-day spike in two weeks Tuesday on the dual catalysts of Trump’s rejection of Iran’s Hormuz proposal and the UAE’s announcement it will leave OPEC effective May 1. Brent reached $112.70 intraday — the highest level since March 31 and within $7 of the cycle peak. WTI briefly traded above $100 before settling near $99-100. The UAE departure is the most significant OPEC defection in over half a century: it formally dismantles the producer coordination architecture that had been a swing-factor against Hormuz disruption. Goldman remains at $90 Q4; Citi’s $110 base case is now within 2% of spot. AAA reported US retail gas at $4.176 — highest since August 2022. The pass-through to global inflation expectations resumes pressure on every central bank.

USD/BRL at R$4.9728 (essentially flat), the fourth consecutive sub-R$5.00 session. The chart shows live trading near R$4.9758 with the close around R$4.9733. RSI at 37.25 (MA 32.88) — the deeply oversold reading is now a 5-week pattern, but the BRL refuses to extend lower. The MACD histogram is at +0.0027 — barely positive, signaling the BRL strength move is structurally mature. With oil at $99-100 and the global dollar firming on FOMC expectations, the BRL’s continued defense of sub-R$5.00 is the cleanest signal of the carry trade’s structural integrity. R$4.94-4.95 from last week marked the multi-year low; R$5.04-5.05 is structural resistance. The Copom decision today will determine whether the next directional move is back toward R$4.90 (dovish 25bp + Powell dovish) or a controlled retest of R$5.00 (hawkish 25bp / Powell hawkish).

Bitcoin closed at $77,007 (+0.90%) per the Bitstamp tape — O:76,324 H:77,437 L:76,171. RSI 61.80, MA 57.85. MACD histogram −96 — just turned negative for the first time since the early-April push. BTC is consolidating in the $76K-$77.5K range despite the AI selloff and oil spike. Gold firmed near $4,650-4,710 on the FOMC hedge bid combined with renewed war risk premium.

Risk Map BULL vs BEAR

Positioning BOTTOM LINE

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