Latin American Pulse for Tuesday, April 29, 2026

Argentina: Adorni Faces Congress Today on Wealth Scandal — Six-Hour Testimony, No Censure Vote Possible — Copom Day 2: Selic Decision After Market Close, Focus IPCA at 4.80% — Colombia Hits 48 Massacres by End of April, Worst Since Post-FARC Era — World Bank: Biggest Commodity Shock Since 2022, Energy Prices +24% — Venezuela: US-Contracted Auditor Monitors Every Barrel of Oil Revenue — ENI Signs New Gas and Crude Agreement with PDVSA — Mexico: Two Top CJNG Leaders Captured — Colombia: First Cauca Massacre Suspect Arrested, Petro Says Attacks Aim to “Sabotage Elections”

Argentina: Adorni Faces Congress Today — Six Hours, No Censure

Wed Apr 29: Cabinet Chief Adorni appears before Cámara de Diputados for informe de gestión; 6-hour testimony; scandal: Aruba trip, first-class flights to Europe, Caballito apartment (R$105K purchase with suspicious financing from 6 female lenders), enrichment investigation under Judge Lijo; Milei will NOT attend; no Labor Parlamentaria = opposition cannot convene censure motion; March inflation 3.4% (10th month not falling); IMF cut Argentina growth to 3.5%; CB Global Data: Milei 14th/18 LATAM leaders; Giacobbe: 31.3% say most corrupt since 1983; biographer Márquez: “Adorni is politically dead”; press ban still in effect at Casa Rosada

What Happened

• —As we previewed in our “Argentina’s Decisive Week” analysis, Cabinet Chief Manuel Adorni appears before the Cámara de Diputados this morning for the most politically charged congressional session of the Milei presidency. The six-hour testimony — a constitutional obligation, not a voluntary appearance — covers the government’s management report but will inevitably be dominated by the wealth scandal: the Aruba holiday, first-class flights to European conferences, and the Caballito apartment purchased for R$105,000 with financing from six female lenders whose identities Judge Lijo’s investigation has now exposed after lifting bank secrecy. Milei chose not to attend — a decision that denies the opposition a confrontation but also signals the president’s calculation that Adorni must absorb the political cost alone. The absence of a Labor Parlamentaria means the opposition bloc cannot summon sufficient votes for a censure motion during the session, limiting the outcome to reputational damage rather than institutional consequence. The backdrop is severe: Milei’s approval has crashed to 14th of 18 LATAM leaders, March inflation printed at 3.4% (the tenth consecutive month without improvement), and the IMF has cut Argentina’s growth forecast to 3.5%. The press ban at Casa Rosada remains in effect — meaning the testimony will be covered by journalists who are simultaneously barred from the presidential building.

RISK: CRITICAL

Copom Day 2: Selic Decision Today — IPCA Above Ceiling, Brent at $98

Decision ~18h30 BRT; Selic at 14.75%; Focus IPCA 4.80% (above 4.50% ceiling, 7th weekly upgrade); terminal revised 12.50%→13.00%; consensus: 25bps cut to 14.50% (55%), hold (40%), 50bps (5%); XP: IPCA 4.8%, Selic floor 13.50%; BofA/Santander: cautious 25bps; Goldman: next cut may wait until September; no forward guidance for June expected; oil at $98; BTG trade surplus $90B; IBOV down 5 consecutive sessions to 188,618

What Happened

• —The Copom concludes its April meeting today with the most constrained decision space of the entire easing cycle. The Focus IPCA forecast at 4.80% — formally above the 4.50% tolerance ceiling — makes any rate cut a statement that the BCB is prioritising growth over credibility. XP has raised its full-year inflation projection to 4.8% and its terminal Selic to 13.50%, while Goldman Sachs suggests the next cut may not arrive until September. The counterargument: Brazil remains a net oil exporter benefiting from $98 Brent, the real has strengthened, and BTG projects a $90 billion trade surplus. The Ibovespa has fallen for five consecutive sessions to 188,618 — the longest losing streak of 2026 — creating equity-market pressure for a dovish signal. As detailed in our inflation guide, the consensus is a 25 bps cut to 14.50% with no forward guidance for June — leaving the easing trajectory entirely data-dependent. A hold would be the hawkish surprise; a 50 bps cut the dovish surprise. The statement language on the Iran war’s inflationary impact will be the single most-analysed paragraph in Brazilian monetary policy this year.

RISK: ELEVATED

Colombia: 48 Massacres in Four Months — Worst Since Post-FARC Era

Indepaz: 48 massacres by end of April 2026 — already over half the 54-case total for all of 2025; Q1 2026: 35 massacres with 133 victims (vs 16 in Q1 2025); one massacre every three days; 17 departments affected; targeting shifted from selective leader-killings to mass-casualty civilian attacks; only 46 social leaders killed through April (vs 187 in all of 2025); Paz Total “effectively collapsed as a deterrent”; Cajibío Cauca attack (20 dead) the deadliest single incident; on pace for 90+ cases by year-end — worst since tracking began

What Happened

• —As we reported yesterday, Colombia’s collective-homicide crisis has crossed a structural threshold. Indepaz documented 48 massacres in the first four months of 2026 — already exceeding half the 54 recorded for all of 2025 — placing the country on pace for more than 90 cases by year-end, which would mark the worst single year since systematic tracking began. Q1 2026 alone registered 35 massacres with 133 victims, compared to 16 in Q1 2025 — a 119% increase. Three structural shifts distinguish this cycle from previous escalations. First, the geographic spread: 17 departments have recorded massacres in just four months, exceeding any comparable pre-electoral period. Second, the targeting profile: only 46 social leaders were killed through April (versus 187 across all of 2025), indicating a pivot from selective assassination to mass-casualty attacks aimed at terrorising civilian populations. Third, the Paz Total framework — President Petro’s signature security policy of negotiated settlements with armed groups — has effectively collapsed as a deterrent. The May 31 presidential election is now a referendum on whether that approach has any continued viability.

RISK: CRITICAL

World Bank: Biggest Commodity Shock Since 2022 — Energy +24%

Commodity Markets Outlook Tue Apr 28: energy prices +24% in 2026; overall commodities +16%; Brent avg $86/bbl (downside $115 if facilities damaged); precious metals +42% (safe-haven demand); developing-economy inflation 5.1% (1pp above pre-war); Chief Economist Indermit Gill: “war is development in reverse”; food + fertiliser cascade hitting LATAM hardest; Argentina standout: fiscal adjustment driving surplus despite global headwinds

What Happened

• —As we reported yesterday, the World Bank quantified what the hemisphere has been living through: the Iran war is producing the largest commodity-price disruption since Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine. The Commodity Markets Outlook projects 2026 energy prices surging 24%, with Brent averaging $86 per barrel — but a downside scenario reaching $115 if critical infrastructure sustains damage. Overall commodity prices are forecast to rise 16%. Precious metals will jump 42% on safe-haven demand. The cascade through food and fertiliser prices pushes inflation in developing economies to 5.1% — a full percentage point above January expectations. “War is development in reverse,” said Chief Economist Indermit Gill, in a phrase that captures the structural damage to growth trajectories across Latin America, the Caribbean, and beyond. For the Copom — deciding the Selic today — the World Bank’s numbers provide the macro framework: Brazil is navigating a commodity shock that benefits its export sector while simultaneously threatening its inflation target.

RISK: ELEVATED

Venezuela: US-Contracted Auditor Monitors Every Barrel of Oil Revenue

Mon Apr 27: BCV President Pérez González confirmed Trump administration contracted private auditing firm to monitor all Venezuela oil sales revenue; Caracas separately contracted second auditor for “imparciality”; dual-audit system = first financial-control mechanism under post-Maduro transition; Trump: “I am in charge of Venezuela and the sale of its oil”; PDVSA at 1.1M bpd; Chevron, Eni, Repsol new licenses; Amber Energy $11B Citgo commitment; CPI 475% (2025), min wage $0.27; Delcy: May 1 wage adjustment

What Happened

• —As we reported yesterday, the Trump administration has installed the first concrete financial-control mechanism of the post-Maduro era: a privately contracted auditing firm that monitors every barrel of Venezuelan oil revenue. BCV President Luis Pérez González confirmed the arrangement on Monday, adding that Caracas has separately contracted its own auditor to ensure “imparciality” — creating a dual-oversight system where both Washington and Caracas have independent readings of the same revenue flows. The architecture converts Trump’s public statement that he is “in charge of Venezuela and the sale of its oil” from rhetoric into operational reality. PDVSA production has reached 1.1 million barrels per day under new Chevron, Eni, and Repsol licenses. The National Assembly’s February hydrocarbon law reform allows direct PDVSA-foreign company contracts without joint ventures. Amber Energy has committed $11 billion to the Citgo Petroleum acquisition. But the human numbers remain devastating: CPI ended 2025 at 475%, minimum wage is frozen at approximately $0.27, and the pension system has more retirees (5.7 million) than active workers (5.3 million). Delcy Rodríguez announced a “responsible” minimum wage adjustment for May 1.

OUTLOOK: WATCH

Venezuela: ENI Signs New Gas and Crude Agreement with PDVSA

CNN en Español: Italian energy major ENI signed new agreement with PDVSA to expand gas and crude production; follows Chevron and Repsol licenses; European investment in post-Maduro Venezuela accelerating; part of broader “opening petrolera” under Delcy Rodríguez’s reformed hydrocarbon law; direct contracts without JV requirement; PDVSA targeting return to Dec 2025 production levels

What Happened

• —Italian energy major ENI signed a new gas and crude production agreement with PDVSA, expanding its operational footprint in Venezuela — the latest in an accelerating wave of European energy investment under the post-Maduro transition. The deal follows Chevron’s expanded license, Repsol’s return, and the broader “apertura petrolera” enabled by the National Assembly’s February 2026 hydrocarbon law reform, which allows direct contracts between PDVSA and foreign companies without the joint-venture structures that dominated the Chávez-Maduro era. ENI’s entry into gas production is particularly significant: Venezuela holds the hemisphere’s largest proven gas reserves (estimated at 201 trillion cubic feet) but has historically flared or underutilised its gas output. The deal complements the dual-audit system the US has imposed on oil revenues — creating a framework where foreign investment, production expansion, and revenue oversight operate simultaneously under international supervision.

OUTLOOK: BULLISH

Mexico: Two Top CJNG Leaders Captured

CNN en Español/Telemundo: two senior leaders of Cartel Jalisco Nueva Generación captured in coordinated operation; CJNG is Mexico’s most powerful criminal organisation, led by “El Mencho” (Nemesio Oseguera Cervantes); captures come amid ongoing Sinaloa-CJNG territorial war; Sheinbaum’s triple security crisis (Teotihuacán + Chihuahua + UN Commissioner) framing; Sinaloa mine collapse: 4th miner found dead

What Happened

• —Mexican security forces captured two senior leaders of the Cartel Jalisco Nueva Generación in a coordinated operation — the most significant operational success against the CJNG since the Sinaloa-CJNG territorial war escalated in late 2025. The CJNG, led by Nemesio Oseguera Cervantes (“El Mencho”), has expanded from its Jalisco base into virtually every Mexican state, and the ongoing war with the fractured Sinaloa Cartel — which intensified after the captures of “El Mayo” Zambada and Ovidio Guzmán — has driven homicide rates in contested corridors. The captures provide President Sheinbaum with a positive security headline after weeks dominated by the Teotihuacán shooting, the Chihuahua sovereignty crisis, and the UN Human Rights Commissioner’s visit. Separately, the fourth miner was found dead in a Sinaloa mine collapse, bringing the total to four fatalities.

OUTLOOK: WATCH

Colombia: First Cauca Suspect Arrested — Petro: “Sabotage Elections”

CNN en Español: one suspect captured in connection with Cajibío massacre (20 dead, 36 injured); first arrest since Apr 25 attack; Petro: attacks are designed to “sabotage the elections”; Cauca death toll confirmed at 20 (15 women, 5 men); VP Francia Márquez criticised military intelligence; $1.4M reward for “Marlón” (operational commander); $5B COP for Mordisco; 127,000 military deployed for May 31 election security; Invamer: Cepeda 44%, Valencia 20%, De la Espriella 18%

What Happened

• —Colombian security forces made the first arrest connected to the Cajibío massacre — the cylinder bomb attack that killed 20 civilians and injured 36 on the Panamericana highway on April 25. The suspect’s identity and role in the operation were not immediately disclosed. President Petro used the arrest to reinforce his argument that the wave of 26 attacks across Cauca and Valle del Cauca was “deliberately timed to sabotage the elections” — framing the violence as an anti-democratic strategy rather than evidence of state failure. The opposition reads it differently: as Invamer polling shows, Cepeda leads at 44% but Valencia (20%) and De la Espriella (18%) are both building their campaigns around the argument that Petro’s negotiation strategy created the security vacuum. The $1.4 million reward for “Marlón” (Iván Idrobo Arredondo), the operational commander, and $5 billion COP for Mordisco, the most wanted man in Colombia, remain outstanding. With 127,000 military personnel deployed for the May 31 first round, Colombia is approaching its most securitised election in decades — and the question is whether that military presence prevents further attacks or merely creates the infrastructure for an even more volatile final month of campaigning.

RISK: CRITICAL

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