The Big Three
The S&P Merval edged up 0.12% to 2,869,560.32 on Tuesday — the third consecutive gain and the quietest session in two weeks — with the MACD histogram narrowing for the second consecutive session. The index opened at 2,866,257, pushed to 2,891,218, dipped to 2,849,166, and closed at 2,869,560 — right on the Kijun-sen for the fifth time in twelve sessions. The three-day recovery from Thursday’s −2.31% crash totals +1.34% — still less than half of that single-session decline, but the direction and the MACD trajectory matter more than the magnitude. The histogram at −15,788 has now narrowed from −17,356 → −16,907 → −15,788 across three sessions — the first sustained narrowing sequence since the bearish cross began on April 17.
Cabinet Chief Manuel Adorni faces the Chamber of Deputies today (Wednesday April 29) — the most politically consequential Congressional testimony of Milei’s 2026 calendar. The opposition has filed over 4,800 questions. The probe covers two Buenos Aires apartments, a gated-community house in Exaltación de la Cruz, cash-paid trips to Punta Cana, Cancún, Aruba, and New York, a private flight to Punta del Este, and alleged links between his wife Bettina Angeletti’s consultancy firm +BE and state contracts involving YPF and the Tecnópolis concession. Judge Lijo has ordered the lifting of bank and tax secrecy. Adorni reportedly plans to deflect personal-finance questions to the judiciary. Milei and Karina Milei will attend in a show of solidarity. The session’s structure — one-hour presentation, four hours of questioning across blocs — is designed to prevent the early withdrawal that occurred when Adorni’s predecessor Francos faced the Senate.
The RSI signal at 48.65 is approaching the 50 regime line — the third technical indicator approaching a recovery threshold alongside the MACD narrowing and the Kijun-sen hold. The close above the cloud bottom (2,859,680) for the third consecutive session confirms the Merval remains inside the cloud rather than below it. The Tenkan-sen at 2,885,300 and the 21-EMA at 2,887,996 are the confirmation levels — a close above either would strengthen the recovery thesis. The soybean harvest remains at peak season, the BCRA is accumulating reserves ($3.3 billion YTD vs $10 billion target), and the $2 billion World Bank-backed loan negotiation progresses for July maturities. The structural bid remains, but today’s testimony is the binary risk that could override the technical improvement.
01 Market Snapshot
| Indicator | Value | Change |
| S&P Merval Close / Kijun-sen | 2,869,560.32 | +0.12% (+3,303.20) |
| 3-day recovery | +1.34% | from Thu −2.31% crash |
| MACD histogram (2nd narrowing) | −15,788 | −17,356→−16,907→−15,788 |
| RSI signal (approaching 50) | 48.65 | 1.35 pts from regime flip |
| Tenkan-sen (confirmation) | 2,885,300 | 16K pts above close |
| Cloud bottom (held 3 sessions) | 2,859,680 | close above |
| 50-day SMA | 2,817,470 | support below |
| 200-day SMA | 2,812,381 | deep support |
| Adorni testimony | TODAY — Apr 29 | 4,800+ questions filed |
02 Equities — The Quiet Before Adorni
Merval Argentina today enters Wednesday’s session — Adorni testimony day — with the quietest session in two weeks and the second consecutive MACD narrowing. This Argentina stock market report covers a Tuesday that the market used to position ahead of the binary political event. The +0.12% gain on the Kijun-sen, the continued hold above the cloud bottom, and the MACD’s narrowing trajectory suggest the market expects the testimony to pass without producing a forced resignation. This is part of The Rio Times’ daily coverage of Latin American equity markets.
The Kijun-sen at 2,869,560 has become the Merval’s most reliable equilibrium level: five of the last twelve sessions have closed within 5,000 points of this line. The index oscillates around it, dips below toward the cloud bottom (2,859,680), bounces back, and settles on the Kijun. This is the pattern of a market that has found its range and is waiting for a catalyst to break out of it. Today’s testimony is that catalyst — in either direction.
The LatAm divergence on Tuesday was stark: Argentina +0.12% (range-bound, recovering), Chile −0.39% (consolidating Friday’s surge), Mexico −1.06% (50-SMA breakdown confirmed), Colombia −1.02% (entered March correction zone). Argentina is the only LatAm market in this series showing a multi-session recovery pattern with improving momentum indicators. Whether this holds depends entirely on today’s Congressional session.
03 Adorni — What the Market Is Pricing
The opposition filed over 4,800 questions. The session begins with a one-hour presentation by Adorni, followed by four hours of questioning distributed from the smallest blocs to the ruling party and the Peronist Unión por la Patria. The opposition has coordinated to avoid provocations that might give Adorni grounds to withdraw early — as happened with his predecessor Francos in the Senate. Milei and Karina Milei will attend in a show of support, accompanied by ministers.
The probe’s scope has widened since MercoPress‘s initial reporting: two apartments, a gated-community house, cash-paid luxury travel, a private Punta del Este flight, and the +BE consultancy’s alleged links to YPF and Tecnópolis state contracts — with a potential “triangular relationship” between YPF, National Shipping SA, and +BE. Judge Lijo has ordered bank and tax secrecy lifted. Adorni plans to deflect personal-finance questions by arguing the matter is before the courts. For the Merval, the scenarios are: (A) testimony passes without forced resignation → market rallies toward Tenkan (2,885K) and 21-EMA (2,888K), MACD continues narrowing; (B) resignation or political damage → market retests the cloud bottom (2,860K) and potentially the 50-SMA (2,817K). Tuesday’s calm suggests the market is positioning for Scenario A.
04 Technical Analysis — S&P Merval Daily
From the chart: O:2,866,257.12, H:2,891,218.40, L:2,849,165.98, C:2,869,560.32 (+3,303.20, +0.12%). Tuesday’s candle is a small-body doji with nearly equal upper and lower wicks — classic indecision ahead of a known catalyst. The close on the Kijun-sen confirms range equilibrium. The session high at 2,891,218 approached the Tenkan-sen (2,885,300) — the level that must be closed above for confirmation.
MACD at 24,553 with signal at 8,765 (histogram −15,788) has narrowed for the second session. The trajectory (−17,356 → −16,907 → −15,788) is consistent with the deceleration phase that precedes a bullish re-cross — but the re-cross is still several sessions away at the current narrowing pace. RSI at 53.85 with signal at 48.65 has the signal approaching 50 — a cross above would be the second recovery indicator. The range remains defined: Tenkan/21-EMA (2,885K–2,888K) above, cloud bottom (2,860K) below.
05 Key Levels
| Level | S&P Merval |
| 21-day EMA | 2,887,996 |
| Tenkan-sen (confirmation) | 2,885,300 |
| Cloud top | 2,872,490 |
| Tuesday Close / Kijun-sen | 2,869,560 |
| Cloud bottom (held 3 sessions) | 2,859,680 |
| 50-day SMA | 2,817,470 |
| 200-day SMA | 2,812,381 |
06 Looking Ahead
Today is binary. Adorni’s Congressional testimony (one-hour presentation + four hours of questioning) begins this morning and runs through the afternoon. The Merval will trade the headlines in real time. Scenario A (non-event): close above the Tenkan (2,885K), MACD narrows a third time, RSI signal crosses 50 — the technical recovery thesis strengthens. Scenario B (political damage): close below cloud bottom (2,860K), retests 50-SMA (2,817K), MACD narrowing reverses — the correction resumes.
Key dates: April 29 — Adorni Congressional testimony (TODAY). May 14 — April INDEC CPI (below 3% restores thesis). April–May — peak soybean harvest inflows. US$2B World Bank-backed loan negotiation. US$19B external debt maturities.
07 Verdict
Tuesday was the calm before the storm. The +0.12% gain — the third consecutive — produced the quietest session in two weeks while the MACD narrowed for the second time and the RSI signal reached 48.65. The Kijun-sen equilibrium holds. The cloud bottom holds. The recovery indicators are slowly building. But none of it matters if Adorni’s testimony today produces a political crisis that reprices Milei’s governance stability. At 19.8x forward P/E — LatAm’s highest — the Merval cannot absorb a forced resignation or coalition fracture without a significant repricing.
Bias: Neutral — technically recovering, politically exposed. The MACD is narrowing. The RSI signal approaches 50. The cloud bottom holds. Three consecutive gains. But Adorni’s testimony today is the binary event: a non-event extends the recovery toward the Tenkan (2,885K); a political hit reverses it toward the 50-SMA (2,817K). The market’s Tuesday calm suggests it expects Scenario A. Wednesday’s close will confirm or deny that expectation. This is Milei’s most politically defining day of 2026.
Related coverage:
Adorni preview: Argentina’s Decisive Week: Adorni Faces Congress
MercoPress: Cabinet Chief to Face Congress Over Wealth Allegations
Previous Merval: Merval Rises 0.90% as MACD Narrows First Time
Economy guide: Argentina Economy 2026: Complete Investor Guide
This report is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Always consult a licensed financial advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Published by The Rio Times.