The Rio Times · Mexico Market Report
Morning Edition · March 24, 2026 · Covering March 23 Session
The Big Three
1
The five-week losing streak is broken — barely. The IPC gained 0.37% to 64,370.95 after Trump announced a five-day pause in attacks on Iranian energy infrastructure. The session swung wildly: the index opened at 64,290 and tested 64,100 before the Trump announcement mid-session triggered a risk-on rally that lifted it to 64,816 — only to give back most gains as Iran denied any negotiations. The net gain of 236 points is the first positive close since late February, but it leaves the index still 10.1% below its 2026 high. Volaris jumped 2.86% on its first session back in the IPC following the BMV rebalance.
2
The peso rallied to 17.77 per dollar (+0.69%), momentarily touching 17.6949 before Iran’s denial clawed back gains. Milenio reported the peso initially surged 1.15% on the Trump announcement before fading. Analyst Jorge González of Asesores en Divisas warned that the relief is partial: “While the war cools, the tariff rhetoric heats up” — referencing Trump’s reciprocal tariff threats and combative T-MEC posture that inject a structural risk premium preventing the peso from fully capitalizing on the geopolitical improvement.
3
Banxico decides on Thursday — the most consequential meeting since the February pause. The consensus expects a hold at 7.0%, but the oil crash to $99.75 Brent (−11.09%) fundamentally alters the inflation calculus. If crude stays below $100, the inflationary justification for the pause weakens and a dovish signal becomes possible — a scenario that would be strongly bullish for both equities and the peso. The 10-year bond yield jumped 13 basis points to 9.45%, however, suggesting the fixed income market is not yet pricing in easing.
01 Market Snapshot
| Indicator | Close | Chg |
| S&P/BMV IPC | 64,370.95 | +0.37% |
| USD/MXN | 17.77 | −0.69% |
| Brent Crude | $99.75 | −11.09% |
| WTI Crude | $88.61 | −9.79% |
| Mexico 10Y Bond | 9.45% | +13 bps |
| Banxico Rate | 7.00% | unch (Thu) |
02 Equities
The Mexico stock market IPC today managed its first positive close since late February, snapping a five-week losing streak with a modest 0.37% gain. This is part of The Rio Times’ daily coverage of the Mexican stock market and Latin American financial markets. Volaris was the standout on its first day back in the IPC after the BMV rebalance replaced Becle (Cuervo).
| Top Gainers | Chg |
| Volaris | +2.86% |
| Grupo Carso | +2.10% |
| Alsea | +1.85% |
| GF Inbursa | +1.60% |
| Femsa | +1.25% |
| Top Losers | Chg |
| Pemex-linked names | −2.5% |
| Genomma Lab | −1.80% |
| Kimberly-Clark MX | −1.40% |
| Sigma Foods | −1.10% |
| Orbia | −0.95% |
Grupo Financiero Ve por Más cautioned that “the environment remains highly uncertain,” noting Iran’s denial undercut the initial rally. Energy names retreated on the Brent crash while consumer and airline stocks rallied on lower fuel costs. The WTI closed at $88.61 (−9.79%), having touched an intraday low of $84.37 — its lowest since March 11 — though it remains 33% above pre-war levels.
03 Currency
The peso closed at 17.77 per dollar, appreciating 0.69% after briefly touching 17.6949 on the initial Trump announcement. However, as Milenio reported, the peso ceded much of its gains once Iran denied any talks. Analyst Jorge González highlighted the structural constraint: Trump’s tariff posture toward Mexico creates a permanent risk premium that prevents the peso from fully benefiting from geopolitical improvement. The Banxico decision Thursday is the key near-term catalyst — the oil crash below $100 opens a narrow window for a dovish surprise, though the 13-bps jump in 10-year yields to 9.45% suggests bond traders remain skeptical.
04 Technical Analysis
Monday’s small green candle at 64,370.95 does little to alter the bearish structure. The MACD remains deeply negative: histogram at −489.44, MACD line at −806.69, signal at −1,296.13 — all accelerating to the downside with no crossover in sight. RSI at 38.29/32.31 sits near oversold territory, with the slow RSI already below the 33 threshold. The 200-day SMA at 62,539 is just 2.8% below, making it the critical structural floor. A breach would formally end the bull market that began in late 2024.
05 Key Levels
| Level | Price | Source |
| Resistance 2 | 66,830 | 50-day EMA / MA cluster |
| Resistance 1 | 65,819 | 20-day EMA / prior support |
| Monday Close | 64,370.95 | March 23, 2026 |
| Support 1 | 63,158 | Near-term support zone |
| Support 2 | 62,539 | 200-day SMA |
06 Global Context
For Mexico, the oil crash below $100 is net positive on balance: lower fuel costs ease inflationary pressure, potentially giving Banxico room to resume cutting. However, Pemex revenue takes an immediate hit, and the Trump tariff overhang — with reciprocal tariffs and T-MEC hardball — prevents the peso and equities from fully pricing in geopolitical relief. Oxford Economics expects Brent to average $114 in Q2 even with a ceasefire, suggesting Monday’s decline may prove temporary.
07 Looking Ahead
Thursday’s Banxico decision dominates. The consensus expects a hold at 7.0%, but the forward guidance language will be decisive — any dovish tilt acknowledging the oil retreat would be strongly bullish. U.S. March PMI data (Monday/Tuesday) will test economic resilience. Trump’s five-day ceasefire window expires Saturday, making Friday a potential inflection point for oil and risk assets. The BMV rebalance (Volaris in, Becle out) will continue generating positioning flows through mid-week.
08 Verdict
Bias: BEARISH, with ceasefire optionality to the upside. The five-week streak is broken but the MACD remains deeply negative, RSI near oversold, and the 200-day SMA at 62,539 sits just 2.8% below. A confirmed ceasefire + dovish Banxico would upgrade to Neutral. A close above 65,819 confirms reversal. The ceasefire clock and Thursday’s rate decision are the twin catalysts.
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