The Ecuador security crisis that produced the deadliest year in the country’s history may finally be easing in the border provinces where it is worst. President Daniel Noboa reported a 35% drop in crime in those areas, and The Rio Times, the Latin American financial news outlet, examines what the figures show and what the broader context looks like.
Speaking from the coastal city of Esmeraldas on Tuesday, Noboa said homicides, extortions, and other crimes have fallen approximately 35% in border areas since the government intensified military operations against Colombian armed groups. He specifically cited strikes against the Comandos de la Frontera and other guerrilla remnants operating along the 586-kilometer frontier.
Ecuador Security Crisis: The Numbers in Context
The 35% figure applies to border provinces, not the country as a whole. Ecuador recorded 9,216 intentional homicides in 2025, a 30.5% increase over the prior year and the worst toll on record.
The country was averaging more than one killing per hour. Provinces like Los Ríos, El Oro, and Guayas topped 85 homicides per 100,000 residents, rates comparable to the world’s most violent conflict zones. January 2026 brought 747 homicides, only marginally below the same month the year before.
Noboa has governed under near-continuous emergency powers since January 2024, when a gang takeover of a television studio shocked the nation. He declared an internal armed conflict, deployed the military to streets and prisons, and has signed more than a dozen emergency decrees since then. The current state of emergency covers nine provinces and three municipalities, with a nighttime curfew in four coastal provinces running through March 31.
U.S. Support and the Colombia Rift
The operations Noboa cited include joint campaigns with the U.S. military. The FBI opened its first permanent office in Quito this month, and Ecuador has integrated American-supplied MQ-9 Reaper drones and surveillance technology into its border operations. More than 40,000 troops have been deployed in the current phase, which began March 2, with U.S. advisory support.
Noboa used the interview to defend his government’s 50% tariff on Colombian imports, raised from 30% on March 1. He accused Bogotá of refusing to cooperate on border security. Colombia has filed a complaint before the Andean Community tribunal, and the trade war has cost Ecuadorian exporters an estimated $273 million annually while straining electricity supplies.
Challenges Behind the Ecuador Security Crisis Numbers
Government data shows a gap between detentions and prosecutions. Noboa acknowledged that roughly 120,000 people have been detained since the crackdown began in 2024, but only 8,000 cases have been judicially processed. Criminal groups have also shown signs of adapting, with analysts noting that organizations shift operations to provinces not covered by the curfew.
The pattern is familiar. After the initial emergency declaration in January 2024, homicides dropped 63% within weeks, but by March of that year they were climbing again.
The next phase will test whether the current combination of U.S.-backed intelligence, sustained troop deployments, and economic pressure on Colombia produces a durable reduction. During the first week of the March curfew alone, police detained 897 people in the four affected provinces, seized 51 firearms, and captured six priority military targets.
For border communities in Esmeraldas, the 35% drop is real and immediate. For Ecuador as a whole, the test is whether emergency powers can evolve into institutional capacity before the next cycle of violence begins.