Chile’s Quiet Comeback: A Record Stock Rally, A Stronger Peso, And A Crowd At The Door

Key Points

• Chile finished 2025 as one of the world’s strongest equity stories, even as global markets ended the year on a cautious note.
• The last tradable print came on December 30, because the exchange is closed December 31 under the restored bank-holiday rule.
• The signal for 2026 is mixed: fundamentals look cleaner, but charts show momentum is crowded and vulnerable to a pause.

Chile ended 2025 with a headline that surprises outsiders: its main equity index rose about 56.8% over the year.

The final close—because December 31 is a non-trading day—was December 30, when the S&P IPSA slipped 0.38% to 10,481.40 after ranging from 10,456.26 to 10,531.77.

That small dip matters less than what it says about positioning: investors spent the final session trimming rather than chasing. Behind the rally is an engine with distinctly Chilean characteristics—and a political catalyst our reporting has tracked all year. The November presidential first round delivered a market-friendly shift that reinforced the peso and IPSA, adding policy predictability to the copper windfall.

Copper, the country’s most important external variable, was cited around $5.67 per pound on December 30 and described as a new record. When copper runs, the peso often benefits, inflation pressure can ease, and local companies get breathing room.

At the same time, the central bank’s easing cycle left the policy rate at 4.5% after December’s meeting, supporting credit-sensitive sectors and lifting risk appetite.

Liquidity tells the “story behind the story.” Trading activity surged in 2025: equity amounts traded were reported at about US$55.07 billion, up roughly 87.9% from about US$29.31 billion in 2024.

That kind of jump is not just a statistic—it is an invitation. It means Chile looks less like a hard-to-trade niche market and more like a market global funds can size without moving prices too much.

Foreign interest showed up in the most visible proxy: the iShares MSCI Chile ETF (ECH), near $40.15 with about $1.034 billion in assets.

Flows were negative over five days (-$15.78 million) and one month (-$78.43 million), but strongly positive over three months (+$107.27 million), six months (+$178.14 million), and one year (+$219.35 million). In plain terms: late-year trimming, but a bigger accumulation trend.

Single stocks reflected year-end cross-currents. The biggest gainers were FCX (+23.11%), WALMARTCL (+6.97%), ZOFRI (+2.56%), CAMANCHACA (+2.43%), and BLUMAR (+2.42%).

The biggest losers were ABC-OSA (-7.62%), CENCOMALLS (-4.66%), SOCOVESA (-2.86%), HITES (-2.76%), and IAUCL (-2.46%). Turnover clustered in familiar bellwethers: ANTARCHILE, SQM-B, LTM, COPEC, and FALABELLA led trading by value.

The charts add a final, cautionary layer. The IPSA’s RSI was roughly 66 on a 4-hour view, 68 on the daily, and 80 on the weekly—levels that often precede consolidation.

USD/CLP looked oversold on multiple timeframes, with the spot around the high-890s to ~900 depending on the feed, hinting that the peso’s strength may face a rebound test.

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