The Big Three
The IPSA closed essentially flat at 10,397.03 (−0.12%), holding most of Wednesday’s +2.0% bounce as retail names offset energy-sector weakness. Unlike Mexico’s IPC (−1.65%) or Colombia’s COLCAP (−1.77%), Chile’s market proved resilient.
Retail outperformed: Cencosud surged +2.45% and CencoMalls added +2.22%, while Copec gained +1.84%. The defensive bid in consumer names suggests institutional rotation away from energy-exposed cyclicals.
Wall Street’s sharp selloff — Nasdaq −2.38%, S&P 500 −1.74% — failed to drag the IPSA lower, highlighting how Wednesday’s IPoM had already priced in the worst-case energy scenario for Chile’s inflation-sensitive market.
01 Market Snapshot
| Indicator | Value | Change |
| IPSA Close | 10,397.03 | −0.12% |
| IPSA ATH (Feb 12) | 11,721.38 | −11.30% |
| BCCh Policy Rate | 4.50% | Held (Mar 24) |
| S&P 500 | 6,477.00 | −1.74% |
| Nasdaq | 21,408.08 | −2.38% |
02 Equities
The Chile IPSA today defied the regional selloff, closing virtually flat at 10,397.03 (−0.12%) while its LATAM peers tumbled. The resilience came from a rotation into retail and conglomerates: Cencosud jumped +2.45%, CencoMalls gained +2.22%, and Copec rose +1.84%. Entel added +1.30%. This is part of The Rio Times’ daily coverage of Chile’s stock market and Latin American financial markets.
On the downside, Hites fell −1.87%, IAM dropped −1.25%, ItaúCL shed −1.12%, and Andina-B lost −0.98%. Latam slipped −0.52% and CMPC fell −0.92%. The balanced advance-decline breadth explains the near-zero index move.
The March IPoM’s stagflation warning continues to anchor Chilean market expectations. With the BCCh frozen at 4.50% and oil rebounding, the rate path remains stuck — neither cuts to boost growth nor hikes to fight inflation are on the table for now.
03 Currency
The peso remained within its recent range. Infobae noted the consensus 2026 forecast for USD/CLP sits at 820–880, supported by copper prices, the Kast government’s pro-business tilt, and carry from the BCCh’s 4.50% rate. The key risk remains an energy cost pass-through that could force the central bank to hike rather than hold.
04 Technical Analysis — S&P IPSA Daily
The index opened at 10,409.95 — exactly at Wednesday’s close — tested 10,462.77 to the upside and 10,322.93 to the downside before settling at 10,397.03. The small-bodied doji-like candle with balanced shadows signals indecision at the current level.
The MACD histogram at 3.97 is barely positive, with the MACD line (−137.17) still well below the signal line (−141.14). RSI at 43.84/42.11 remains below 50, confirming the broader bearish posture. The 200-day SMA at approximately 9,597 continues to provide a structural floor far below.
05 Key Levels
| Level | IPSA |
| Resistance 3 | 10,540.46 |
| Resistance 2 | 10,466.74 |
| Resistance 1 | 10,450.22 |
| Current Close | 10,397.03 |
| Support 1 | 10,393.02 |
| Support 2 | 10,125.63 |
| Support 3 | 9,596.65 |
06 Global Context
Wall Street tumbled — S&P 500 −1.74%, Nasdaq −2.38% — as Iran rejected the ceasefire and oil rebounded 4%+. Meta crashed 8%. Chile’s ability to hold flat against this backdrop was the standout regional performance, likely reflecting the IPoM discount already embedded in valuations.
07 Looking Ahead
Chile’s relative outperformance on Thursday suggests the market may have found a near-term floor around 10,400 after absorbing the IPoM’s worst-case scenario. Copper remains the key domestic variable — any rally above US$6/lb would simultaneously strengthen the peso and lift mining-linked stocks like SQM and CAP.
The Kast government’s response to energy costs is becoming politically sensitive. If fuel subsidies are expanded, fiscal accounts could deteriorate; if not, consumer spending weakens further. The next macro test is whether the second-half March CPI confirms or moderates the first-half spike.
08 Verdict
Thursday’s −0.12% near-flat close was quietly impressive given the carnage across Wall Street and LATAM peers. The rotation into Cencosud and CencoMalls suggests institutional money is repositioning defensively rather than fleeing Chilean equities entirely. RSI below 50 and the doji candle keep the technical picture neutral.
Bias: Neutral. Chile looks better than the region on a relative basis, but the IPoM stagflation ceiling and frozen rate path prevent an upgrade to bullish. The 10,400 zone is being tested as a potential base — a weekly close above it would be constructive.