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Asia Intelligence Brief for Wednesday, February 18, 2026
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February 18, 2026
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15 min read
What Matters Today
Read about Asia Intelligence Brief for Wednesday, February 18, 2026 on The Rio Times.
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17 years of Latin America reporting, on demand.
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Covering Feb 18
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What matters today
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1 Asia eclipses US in 2026 returns — Bloomberg APAC index +11% YTD vs S&P 500 flat; BofA fund managers net 49% overweight EM (highest since Feb 2021); Korea +76% in 2025, Nikkei +26%, Taiwan +40%; strategists call end of “American exceptionalism”
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2 Japan exports surge 16.8% YoY in January — fastest growth in three years; BOJ April rate hike expectations revive; markets price 80% probability of move to 1.0%; IMF calls for continued tightening toward neutral by 2027
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3 RBNZ holds at 2.25%, signals end of easing cycle — Governor Breman’s first decision; OCR path now shows possible hike by late 2026; NZD weakest currency in Asia session; 325bp of cuts since Aug 2024 complete
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4 Oil drops on US–Iran nuclear progress — Brent falls to $67.42 after “general agreement” on guiding principles in Geneva; Iran temporarily closes Strait of Hormuz during war games; Eurasia Group sees 65% probability of US strikes by end-April
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01
\nMarket Snapshot
\nIntraday Feb 18
\nMarket Snapshot
\nIntraday Feb 18
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| PAIR / INDEX | LEVEL | DAY CHG | SIGNAL |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nikkei 225 | 57,144 | +1.0% | ▲ Export data revives BOJ hike bets; tech leads |
| Hang Seng | 26,706 | +0.5% | ▲ Thin volumes; most markets closed for Lunar New Year |
| Shanghai CSI 300 | — | Closed | — Lunar New Year holiday; reopens Feb 19 |
| BSE Sensex | ~83,400 | -1.4% YTD | ▼ Worst YTD performer among major indices |
| USD/JPY | 153.1 | -0.2% | ▲ Yen firms on export data; 160 floor defended |
| USD/CNY | ~6.98 | — | — Offshore markets; onshore holiday |
| NZD/USD | 0.6026 | -0.3% | ▼ Weakest currency in Asia; dovish RBNZ tone |
| Brent Crude | $68.20 | +1.2% | ▲ Rebounds after Tue drop; Ukraine talks collapse |
| Gold | $4,897 | -1.9% | ▼ Bearish wedge developing; $4,821 support eyed |
| Copper | ~$9,800 | +0.4% | ▲ Supply-constrained; BofA sees further upside |
| LNG (Asia spot) | ~$13.50 | -2.1% | ▼ Mild weather; SB Energy $33B Ohio plant announced |
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02
\nConflict & Stability Tracker
\nConflict & Stability Tracker
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\nElevated
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\nElevated
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US–Iran Nuclear Standoff
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“General agreement” on guiding principles in Geneva; Iran temporarily closed Strait of Hormuz during war games; Eurasia Group: 65% probability of US strikes by end-April; Tehran schedules joint navy drills with Russia in Sea of Oman
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\nActive
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\nActive
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Myanmar – Civil War
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Resistance forces hold ~60% of territory; junta controls major cities and export corridors; rare earth and jade supply chains disrupted; ASEAN pressure remains ineffective
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\nElevated
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\nElevated
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South China Sea
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Philippine–China tensions persist at Second Thomas Shoal; Takaichi’s “Economic Security” doctrine hardens Japan’s Indo-Pacific posture; critical mineral disputes over gallium and germanium
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\nWatching
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\nWatching
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AI Disruption Selloff
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DeepSeek-driven fears that AI makes software businesses obsolete; SaaS stocks down sharply; market repricing capex assumptions; BofA FMS: “AI bubble” top tail risk at 45%
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03
\nFast Take
\nFast Take
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MARKETSAsia eclipses US in 2026 returns — Bloomberg APAC index surges 11% YTD; Nikkei +12% YTD leads global majors; Korea’s KOSPI up 76% over 2025; BofA survey shows fund managers net 49% overweight EM; Global CIO Office advises shifting from US to Japan, Korea, India, China on “more reasonable valuations”
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BREAKINGRBNZ holds OCR at 2.25% — new Governor Anna Breman’s debut; 325bp of cuts since Aug 2024 complete; OCR path shows possible hike to 2.52% by March 2027; NZ inflation at 3.1%, above 1–3% target band; economy in “early stage of recovery”; announces move to eight meetings per year from 2027
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TRADEJapan exports surge 16.8% YoY in January — fastest pace since November 2022; China shipments +32%, semiconductor components to China +51.7%; analysts flag seasonal distortions; markets revive April BOJ rate hike expectations; IMF calls on Japan to continue tightening toward neutral by 2027
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ENERGYOil whipsaws on Iran–US talks — Brent fell 1.8% Tue to $67.42 on “general agreement” in Geneva; Iran temporarily closed Strait of Hormuz during IRGC drills; oil rebounds +1.2% Wed after Ukraine talks collapse in two hours; IEA projects 3.7M bpd oversupply in 2026
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TECHAI disruption fears grip software stocks — DeepSeek anniversary sparks fresh repricing; SaaS names 8×8 (-6.5%), MongoDB (-5.2%) hammered; but PIIE argues AI boom “shrugged off” the shock with 2026 capex accelerating; R2 model delayed by Huawei chip bottlenecks
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ECONOMYIndia holds at 5.25%, signals “Goldilocks” — RBI paused after 125bp of cuts in 2025; FY26 GDP raised to 7.4%; inflation at just 2.1%; US–India trade deal at 18% tariff now live; Goldman forecasts 6.9% growth in 2026 with upside from private capex recovery
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04
\nDevelopments to Watch
\nDevelopments to Watch
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GLOBAL FLOWSThe Great Rotation: Capital Pours East as US Exceptionalism Fades
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Bloomberg’s Asia-Pacific market index has surged 11% since January, outpacing the S&P 500 which has been essentially flat. The numbers across individual markets are striking: Korea’s KOSPI returned 76% in 2025, the Nikkei 26%, Taiwan 40%, and even smaller markets like Vietnam gained over 40%. Bank of America’s latest fund manager survey shows institutional investors net 49% overweight in emerging markets — the highest conviction reading since February 2021. Gary Dugan, CEO of The Global CIO Office, which advises family offices and ultra-high-net-worth individuals, said his firm intends to increase weightings in Eastern equity markets at the expense of the US, citing “more reasonable valuations” and “policy flexibility that is increasingly scarce” in America. BofA strategists have characterized this as the end of American exceptionalism and the beginning of global rebalancing, with Asia at its centre. J.P. Morgan Private Bank’s 2026 Asia Outlook identifies India as a compelling entry point with a relative P/E discount of one standard deviation below the 10-year average versus the S&P 500. Vietnam, trading at 9x earnings with 25% compound earnings growth projected over five years, has attracted attention from macro fund Vantage Point, a founding member of Vietnam’s new International Financial Centre initiative. The risk: BofA’s own survey identifies “AI bubble” as the top tail risk at 45%, followed by disorderly bond yield rises at 17%.
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EAST ASIAJapan Export Surge Revives April BOJ Rate Hike Bets
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Japan’s exports jumped 16.8% year-on-year in January, the fastest growth pace in over three years, driven by a 32% surge in shipments to China ahead of Lunar New Year (semiconductor components to China +51.7%). Exports to the US fell 5%, highlighting the ongoing tariff drag. While analysts caution the headline reflects seasonal distortions rather than structural acceleration, markets responded immediately: expectations for a Bank of Japan rate hike at the April 27–28 meeting revived, with roughly 80% probability now priced in. The IMF weighed in today, calling on Japan to continue raising rates and refrain from loosening fiscal policy, warning that PM Takaichi’s pledge to suspend the 8% food consumption tax for two years would “erode fiscal space and add to fiscal risks.” BOJ board member Kazuyuki Masu, in his first public speech since joining in July, stated further rate hikes are necessary to reduce the policy divergence with other major economies — the key driver of prolonged yen weakness that has pushed up import costs. State Street’s base case is one hike in 2026 and another in 2027 with a terminal rate of 1.25%, though a yen breach of 160 could accelerate the timeline. With inflation above 2% for nearly four years and real interest rates still deeply negative, the BOJ has substantial room to tighten. The yen strengthened to 153 per dollar, supported by verbal intervention from Finance Minister Katayama. Share buybacks by Japanese corporates have roughly doubled since 2022 as companies comply with Tokyo Stock Exchange governance reforms, creating a supportive equity backdrop even as monetary accommodation is withdrawn.
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OCEANIARBNZ Pauses at 2.25%: Governor Breman Signals End of Easing Cycle
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The Reserve Bank of New Zealand held the Official Cash Rate at 2.25% on Wednesday, as expected by all 22 economists surveyed by Bloomberg and all 31 in a Reuters poll. The decision marks the first by new Governor Anna Breman and effectively concludes a 325bp easing cycle that began in August 2024. The key signal was in the forward path: the RBNZ’s updated projections now show the OCR at 2.26% by June 2026 and 2.52% by March 2027, indicating a potential hike later this year — a notable shift from the November meeting when the projection was flat through 2026. NZ inflation sits at 3.1%, slightly above the 1–3% target band, driven by food, electricity, and council rate increases. The economy returned to growth in Q3 with GDP up 1.1%, but the recovery remains fragile: unemployment is at 5.4%, house price growth is weak, and households remain cautious. Breman emphasised that policy would remain “accommodative for some time” and that any normalisation would be gradual, but the conditional rate path suggests the bias is shifting. The NZD immediately became Asia’s weakest currency, falling to 0.6026 against the dollar. In a governance reform, Breman announced the RBNZ will move to eight meetings per year from 2027, up from seven. Futures markets are pricing roughly 60% probability of a 25bp or larger hike by Q3 2026.
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SOUTH ASIAIndia’s “Goldilocks” Pause: RBI Holds After 125bp of Cuts as Growth Accelerates
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The Reserve Bank of India held its repo rate at 5.25% in its February meeting, the first policy decision of 2026, pausing after five consecutive cuts totalling 125 basis points since early 2025. Governor Sanjay Malhotra characterised the macro moment as a “rare Goldilocks period” — GDP growth raised to 7.4% for FY26 alongside headline inflation of just 2.1%, well below the 4% target. The pause reflects confidence rather than concern: India’s growth engine is firing on multiple cylinders. Goldman Sachs forecasts 6.9% growth in 2026, boosted by the US–India trade deal that lowered tariffs from 50% to 18%. The RBI has injected 6.3 trillion rupees ($70 billion) in liquidity via OMOs and forex swaps, with 105 of the 125bp in rate cuts already transmitted to lending rates. However, challenges loom. Inflation is projected to rebound toward 4% in Q1 FY27 as base effects fade and gold prices (up 70% in the past year) push core inflation higher. The current account deficit widened sharply to 2.8% of GDP in Q4 2025 on surging gold imports and weaker exports. Despite the strong fundamentals, India’s BSE Sensex is the worst-performing major global index in 2026 at -1.4% YTD, suggesting markets had already priced the good news. J.P. Morgan notes that active EM fund exposure to India sits near the 0–1st percentile historically, signalling potential upside if positioning normalises.
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CHINAChina Tech Rally Powers On: DeepSeek’s Second Act and the AI Sector Rotation
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Chinese tech shares have begun 2026 with momentum that is reshaping the global equity landscape. An onshore Nasdaq-equivalent tech gauge is up nearly 13% this month, while the Hang Seng Tech Index has outperformed the Nasdaq 100 year-to-date. Alibaba, the largest contributor to Hong Kong index performance in 2026, is benefiting from cloud and AI business momentum. The rally has been driven by DeepSeek’s ripple effects: hundreds of Chinese companies have adopted the open-source AI model, while Beijing’s embrace of private-sector tech — highlighted by Xi Jinping’s meeting with leading tech executives — has shifted investor sentiment. Deutsche Bank, in a report titled “China Eats the World,” called DeepSeek‘s emergence a “Sputnik moment” and predicted the valuation discount on Chinese enterprises would disappear. Morgan Stanley noted that global investors had long undervalued China’s tech and AI sectors, and that this time the rebound may have more staying power. BofA raised its China GDP forecast to 4.7% for 2026, above consensus, with risks skewed to the upside. However, DeepSeek’s anticipated R2 model has been delayed by bottlenecks in training on Huawei chips as US export controls continue to constrain access to Nvidia’s best processors. Mark Mobius described the dynamic as investors recognising that China’s goal of overtaking the US in technology is now backed by real execution. The two-sessions policy meeting in March, which will unveil the new five-year plan emphasising technological self-sufficiency, is the next catalyst. Real estate’s emergence as the leading sector for the first time signals broadening beyond a narrow tech rally.
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ENERGYIran Nuclear Talks: Oil Caught Between Diplomacy and Military Escalation
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Oil markets are caught in a volatile tug-of-war between geopolitical risk premium and structural oversupply. On Tuesday, Brent fell 1.8% to $67.42 after Iran and the US reached a “general agreement” on guiding principles in Geneva, with Iran’s Foreign Minister Araghchi describing the talks as “serious and constructive.” But tensions remain acute: Iran temporarily closed the Strait of Hormuz — a first since Trump threatened military action in January — during IRGC military drills, and has scheduled joint navy drills with Russia in the Sea of Oman for Thursday. On Wednesday, oil rebounded 1.2% after Ukraine–Russia peace talks in Geneva collapsed in just two hours, maintaining the geopolitical risk premium. The fundamental backdrop is bearish: the IEA’s latest report projects 3.7 million barrels per day of crude oversupply this year, while OPEC+ output increase rumours for April are capping upside. Eurasia Group assigns a 65% probability of US military strikes against Iran by end-April. SEB’s chief commodities analyst notes that Iran understands a disruption to Hormuz oil flows driving prices to $150/barrel is “the very last thing Trump wants,” giving Tehran leverage. SoftBank subsidiary SB Energy’s announcement of a $33B natural gas facility in Ohio — described as the world’s largest — adds to the long-term energy supply picture, though the stock fell 2% on the news.
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EAST ASIATakaichinomics: BOJ Independence vs Fiscal Expansion in Japan’s High-Wire Act
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Prime Minister Takaichi’s landslide LDP victory on February 8 has created a fascinating tension at the centre of Japanese financial policy. On one hand, her fiscal expansion mandate — including a pledge to suspend the 8% food consumption tax for two years and increase defence spending — has boosted equities and given the BOJ more room to normalise. On the other, the IMF has explicitly warned against cutting the consumption tax, stating it would threaten debt sustainability for a country with national debt nearly triple the size of its economy. Takaichi’s economic adviser Etsuro Honda told the Japan Times that the PM now expects the BOJ to raise rates “in the near future” and no longer holds the view that rates should be lowered — a significant shift from her previous stance as a monetary dove. She is also reportedly “leveraging the yen’s weakness to promote recovery” rather than seeking to correct it. The critical test arrives at the BOJ’s April 27–28 meeting, when new growth and inflation projections extending through fiscal 2028 will be released alongside the spring wage negotiation results. The 2025 shunto delivered 5.25% wage increases, the highest in over three decades, and momentum is expected to continue. Takaichi also holds the authority to appoint two new members to the BOJ’s nine-member board this year — a move that could significantly shape future monetary policy direction.
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SOUTHEAST ASIAVietnam at 9x Earnings: The Frontier Market Macro Funds Are Circling
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Vietnam is emerging as the frontier market story of 2026. GDP grew 8.02% in 2025, the second-highest in 15 years, with AMRO projecting 7.6% for 2026. The stock market returned over 40% in 2025 yet still trades at just 9 times earnings — among the cheapest in Asia — with 25% compound earnings growth forecast over the next five years. Semiconductor and AI supply chains are driving the export engine as firms diversify away from China. Vantage Point Asset Management, a macro fund led by CIO Nick Ferres, is a founding member of Vietnam‘s new International Financial Centre initiative, signalling serious institutional commitment. However, risks are real: Fitch has warned that rapid credit expansion is raising leverage risks, and the country remains highly export-dependent in an era of trade uncertainty. The broader Southeast Asian picture is encouraging for frontier allocators — Cambodia’s trade rose 19% YoY in January, and Thailand’s SET has emerged as a top-performing sector. The tariff architecture presents both risk and opportunity: Vietnam faces a 20% US reciprocal tariff, but its manufacturing cost advantage and FDI pipeline from Taiwan and Korea semiconductor firms provide a structural buffer that most peers lack.
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05
\nSovereign & Credit Pulse
\nSovereign & Credit Pulse
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| COUNTRY | KEY DEVELOPMENT | CREDIT SIGNAL |
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| Japan | Exports +16.8% YoY; 30-year JGB yields at record highs; IMF warns against consumption tax cut; Takaichi fiscal expansion vs debt 3× GDP | A+/stable — fiscal risk premium rising; 29.6T yen in new bond issuance for FY26 budget |
| India | RBI holds at 5.25%; GDP 7.4%; inflation 2.1%; US trade deal at 18% tariff live; ₹6.3T liquidity injection; Goldman sees 6.9% in 2026 | BBB−/stable — “Goldilocks” fundamentals; CAD widened to 2.8% GDP in Q4 on gold imports |
| China | BofA raises GDP to 4.7%; Hang Seng +5.5% YTD; DeepSeek rally broadening to real estate; Five-Year Plan in March; export growth expected to moderate on trade frictions | A+/stable — Deutsche Bank calls “Sputnik moment”; property stabilisation tentative |
| New Zealand | RBNZ holds at 2.25%; 325bp eased since Aug 2024; inflation 3.1% above target; unemployment 5.4%; OCR path signals possible late-2026 hike | AA+/stable — easing cycle complete; recovery fragile; housing still weak |
| South Korea | KOSPI +76% in 2025; fresh record highs; semiconductor exports leading; won strengthened to 1,462 as pension fund hedges FX | AA/stable — tech-driven earnings acceleration; memory chip cycle turning |
| Vietnam | GDP 8.02% in 2025, AMRO projects 7.6% for 2026; market at 9× P/E; 25% CAGR earnings; new IFC; 20% US tariff | BB/positive — Fitch warns on credit expansion; FDI pipeline strong from Taiwan/Korea semi firms |
| Australia | Wages +0.8% QoQ (in line); annual growth 3.4%; RBA March hold at 3.85% expected; big four banks split on May hike; AU200 +0.2% | AAA/stable — inflation sticky; hawkish risks if March CPI hot |
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\nPower Players
\nPower Players
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| WHO | ROLE | WHY IT MATTERS |
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| Sanae Takaichi | Prime Minister, Japan | Landslide victory drives “Takaichinomics”; fiscal expansion vs IMF warnings; can appoint 2 BOJ board members this year |
| Kazuo Ueda | Governor, Bank of Japan | Met Takaichi Feb 15; navigating independence vs political pressure; April rate hike decision looms |
| Anna Breman | Governor, RBNZ | First policy decision held at 2.25%; signalled end of easing cycle; dovish tone weakened NZD |
| Sanjay Malhotra | Governor, RBI | Paused at 5.25% after 125bp of cuts; called economy “Goldilocks”; managing ₹6.3T liquidity injection |
| Narendra Modi | Prime Minister, India | US trade deal at 18% live; EU FTA also advancing; Goldman sees 0.2pp growth boost from tariff reduction |
| Abbas Araghchi | Foreign Minister, Iran | Described Geneva talks as “serious and constructive”; Hormuz closure signals leverage; return with new proposal in 2 weeks |
| Gary Dugan | CEO, Global CIO Office | Advising family offices to rotate from US to Asia; “policy flexibility increasingly scarce” in America |
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\nRegulatory & Policy Watch
\nRegulatory & Policy Watch
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| JURISDICTION | MEASURE | STATUS / IMPACT |
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| Japan | IMF Article IV: calls for continued BOJ tightening to neutral by 2027; warns against consumption tax cut | Market-moving: validates April hike expectation; constrains Takaichi’s fiscal agenda |
| New Zealand | RBNZ holds OCR at 2.25%; moves to 8 meetings/year from 2027; OCR path signals normalisation | End of 325bp easing cycle; mortgage markets repricing; wholesale rates already climbing |
| India | RBI pauses at 5.25%; US–India trade deal at 18% tariff now operative; EU FTA advancing | 125bp transmitted; Goldman sees 0.2pp GDP boost; higher borrowings of ₹17.2T for FY27 |
| China | Two Sessions / Five-Year Plan — March unveil; tech self-sufficiency priority; US chip export controls tighten | DeepSeek R2 delayed by Huawei chip bottlenecks; anti-dumping measures rising regionally |
| Iran / Strait of Hormuz | Geneva nuclear talks reach “general agreement” on guiding principles; Hormuz temporarily closed | Eurasia Group: 65% probability of US strikes by end-April; oil risk premium volatile |
| US tariff architecture | India 18%, China 34.7%, Vietnam 20%, Korea 15–19%, Japan 15% (autos deal) | Hardening into permanent trade infrastructure; every Asian capital calibrating access vs sovereignty |
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\nCalendar
\nNext 72 Hours
\nCalendar
\nNext 72 Hours
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| DATE | EVENT | SIGNIFICANCE |
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| Feb 18 | RBNZ rate decision — OCR held at 2.25% | End of easing cycle confirmed; OCR path signals possible hike by late 2026 |
| Feb 18 | FOMC Minutes release (from Jan 28–29 meeting) | Key for USD direction and Asian FX; Fed held at 3.50–3.75%; markets pricing March hold |
| Feb 19 | China, Taiwan, South Korea markets reopen after Lunar New Year | DeepSeek rally resumption test; CSI 300 and KOSPI price discovery after holiday |
| Feb 19 | Iran–Russia joint navy drills, Sea of Oman | Oil risk premium; signals Tehran’s leverage amid Geneva negotiations |
| Feb 20 | Australia Q4 wages data; RBA March decision preview | Annual wage growth 3.4%; big four banks split on May hike; monthly CPI pivotal |
| Late Feb | China/HK full-year 2025 earnings season begins | Fundamental test for DeepSeek-driven rally; Alibaba cloud growth key |
| Mar (early) | China Two Sessions — Five-Year Plan, GDP target unveil | Tech self-sufficiency priority; consumption stimulus measures; 2026 GDP target (expected ~5%) |
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09
\nBottom Line
\nBottom Line
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The single most important chart in global markets right now is the one showing Asia pulling away from the United States. Bloomberg’s APAC index is up 11% while the S&P 500 is flat. BofA’s fund managers are the most overweight emerging markets since February 2021. Family offices are rotating East. The “American exceptionalism” trade that dominated the post-pandemic era is unwinding, and the question for allocators is no longer whether to add Asia but how much and where. The answers diverge sharply by market. Japan offers a rare policy dual catalyst — Takaichi’s fiscal expansion and the BOJ’s tightening cycle creating a structural equity tailwind, with corporate governance reforms driving record buybacks. But the IMF’s warning against the consumption tax cut and the country’s 3× GDP debt load mean this is a high-wire act where the margin for error is vanishingly thin. India presents the cleanest macro story: 7.4% growth, 2.1% inflation, a live US trade deal, and Goldman upgrading. Yet markets have not rewarded it — the Sensex is the worst major index YTD, and active EM fund exposure sits near historic lows. That positioning gap is either a contrarian opportunity or a verdict on stretched valuations. China’s tech rally has outperformed the Nasdaq, powered by DeepSeek’s ripple effects and Deutsche Bank’s “Sputnik moment” call. Whether this sticks depends on March’s earnings season and the Five-Year Plan. Meanwhile, the RBNZ’s hold today bookends the most aggressive easing cycle in its history and marks a pivot point for the entire Asia-Pacific monetary policy landscape: the era of synchronised rate cuts is over. What replaces it is a far more fragmented architecture — Japan tightening, India pausing, New Zealand pivoting, China easing — that demands bottom-up country selection rather than regional beta. Overlay the Strait of Hormuz risk, where Eurasia Group assigns a 65% probability of US military strikes on Iran by end-April, and the energy supply chain that underpins every Asian manufacturing model is one headline away from convulsion. The capital flowing East is chasing real earnings growth, reasonable valuations, and policy flexibility. The risk is that it arrives just as the geopolitical architecture holding the region together faces its most serious stress test since the tariff shock of April 2025.
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Asia Intelligence Brief for Wednesday, February 18, 2026
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This is part of The Rio Times’ coverage of Asia Pacific markets and economic developments.
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