The Big Three
The S&P Merval fell 2.30% to 2,769,126.64 on Friday — erasing Wednesday’s +4.42% capitulation reversal almost entirely across two sessions of selling (Thursday −1.63%, Friday −2.30% = −3.89%). The index opened at 2,834,283 (Thursday’s close on the Kijun), pushed to 2,849,177, then collapsed to a session low of 2,757,107 before closing at 2,769,127, according to BYMA data as of close, May 8, 2026. The close is back below the 200-day SMA (2,781,574) and just 19,214 points above Wednesday’s capitulation low at 2,749,913. The “healthy consolidation” thesis from Thursday’s report has been negated: the Merval has given back 92% of the reversal and is approaching the floor that, if broken, targets the February correction low near 2,700,000.
The MACD histogram re-widened sharply from −12,128 to −17,418 — reversing three sessions of improvement and confirming that Wednesday’s reversal was a one-day event rather than the start of a recovery. RSI signal at 41.98 has fallen from 47.45 — back below 45 and heading toward the oversold zone. The MACD line at −3,968 has moved away from zero (it was at −605 on Thursday). The momentum picture has completely reversed: what appeared to be a constructive divergence (price declining, MACD narrowing) on Thursday has been replaced by aligned deterioration (price declining, MACD widening). The Merval’s trajectory since the correction began: range → range break → capitulation reversal → reversal erased → back to square one, below the 200-SMA.
The April CPI on May 14 — now 3 days away — arrives with the Merval at its weakest position since the capitulation, making the data binary in the most literal sense. The inflation trajectory since January: 2.2% → 2.4% → 3.4%. The March spike to 3.4% was the tenth consecutive month above the BCRA’s target path. A reading below 3% in April would confirm the March spike as seasonal and reopen the disinflation narrative that powered the Merval from 2,700K to 2,955K during the prior recovery. A reading at or above 3% — the eleventh consecutive month — would confirm the re-acceleration and target a retest of the capitulation low at 2,750K and potentially the February correction floor near 2,700K. The PIIE warns that the monetary framework “contains new vulnerabilities” and that “confidence could evaporate easily in the face of adverse events.” Three days until the most important data point of 2026.
01 Market Snapshot
| Indicator | Value | Change |
| S&P Merval Close | 2,769,126.64 | −2.30% (−65,156.61) |
| Wednesday reversal retained | 8% | +4.42% → −1.63% → −2.30% |
| 200-day SMA (below again) | 2,781,574 | close 12K below |
| Capitulation low (threatened) | 2,749,913 | 19K above close |
| MACD histogram (RE-WIDENED) | −17,418 | from −12,128 — reversed |
| RSI signal | 41.98 | from 47.45 — sharp decline |
| April CPI | May 14 | 3 days |
Source: BYMA, TradingView, INDEC, PIIE — as of close May 8, 2026.
02 Merval Performance — The Reversal Is Erased
Merval Argentina today enters Monday’s session just 19,214 points above the capitulation low after Friday’s −2.30% decline erased Wednesday’s +4.42% reversal. The three-session sequence (Wednesday +4.42%, Thursday −1.63%, Friday −2.30%) means the Merval retained only 8% of the largest single-session gain since November 2025. The pattern is the same as Mexico’s IPC experienced in late April (marubozu bounce immediately reversed) — except the Merval’s reversal was more dramatic in both directions. Wednesday’s capitulation low at 2,749,913 is now the critical floor: a close below it would negate the reversal entirely and target the February correction low at approximately 2,700,000.
The session low at 2,757,107 on Friday tested within 7,194 points of the capitulation low — the closest approach since Wednesday itself. The LatAm divergence is now at its widest: Mexico has completed its correction and is consolidating near 70K with a bullish MACD. Chile is recovering with the 50-SMA and cloud held. Argentina is back below the 200-SMA approaching capitulation lows. The differentiation reflects the catalyst structure: Mexico has Banxico (delivered), Chile has the structural case (copper, BCCh), Argentina has the CPI (pending — 3 days).
03 Technical Setup
Key Levels Above
• Resistance 1: 2,781,574 (200-day SMA — 12K above close)
• Resistance 2: 2,808,355 (50-day SMA)
• Resistance 3: 2,876,694 (21-day EMA)
Key Levels Below
• Support 1: 2,749,913 (capitulation low — 19K below close — THE floor)
• Support 2: ~2,700,000 (February correction low zone)
• Support 3: 2,595,756 (lower Bollinger Band)
04 What to Watch
• Monday–Wednesday: Pre-CPI positioning. A hold above 2,749,913 (capitulation low) preserves the reversal’s floor. A break below targets 2,700K.
• May 14 (3 days): April INDEC CPI — the single most important data point of 2026 for the Merval. Below 3% = first in 11 months, reversal catalyst. Above 3% = 11th consecutive month, targets 2,700K.
• Ongoing: BCRA reserve accumulation (~$3.3B YTD vs $10B target). Peak soybean harvest. $2B World Bank-backed loan.
• Inflation trajectory: Jan 2.2% → Feb 2.4% → Mar 3.4%. Annual: 32.6%. REM forecast: 29.1% full-year.
05 Verdict
Friday erased the reversal. The +4.42% capitulation bounce from Wednesday has been given back across two sessions (−1.63% + −2.30% = −3.89%), leaving the Merval at 2,769K — just 19K above the capitulation low and back below the 200-SMA. The MACD has re-widened from −12,128 to −17,418. The RSI signal has fallen from 47.45 to 41.98. Every indicator that improved on Wednesday has reversed. The Merval enters the CPI week at its weakest position since the correction began — except for the brief 2,750K capitulation low itself.
Bias: Bearish — reversal erased, below 200-SMA, CPI in 3 days is everything. The Merval at 2,769K with the capitulation low at 2,750K just 19K below is in the most binary position of the entire 2026 cycle. The CPI on May 14 determines direction. Below 3% = the capitulation low holds and becomes the launchpad for a recovery toward 2,880K and 3,000K. Above 3% = the capitulation low breaks and the Merval targets the February correction floor at 2,700K. Three days. The entire year’s thesis comes down to one number.
Frequently Asked Questions
Why was Wednesday’s 4.42% reversal erased?
The Merval gave back 92% of the +4.42% reversal across two sessions (Thursday −1.63%, Friday −2.30%). The close at 2,769,127 is just 19,214 points above the capitulation low of 2,749,913. The MACD re-widened from −12,128 to −17,418, confirming the reversal was a one-session event driven by short-covering at the exhaustion level rather than a sustained change in direction.
What happens if the April CPI is below 3%?
A reading below 3% monthly in April would be the first in eleven months and would confirm the March 3.4% spike as seasonal noise. The Merval would likely rally toward the 200-SMA (2,781K), the Kijun (2,818K), and potentially the cloud top (2,895K). The disinflation thesis that powered the March–April recovery toward 2,955K would be revalidated.
What happens if the April CPI is above 3%?
An eleventh consecutive month above 3% would confirm the inflation re-acceleration. The Merval would likely break the capitulation low at 2,749,913 and target the February correction floor near 2,700,000. The PIIE warns that Argentina’s monetary framework “contains new vulnerabilities” and that “confidence could evaporate easily” in such a scenario. The 19.8x P/E would face a further de-rating.
What is the Merval’s inflation trajectory?
Monthly CPI in 2026: January 2.2%, February 2.4% (revised to 2.9%), March 3.4%. Annual inflation decreased to 32.6% in March from 33.2% in February. The BCRA’s REM survey projects full-year 2026 inflation at 29.1%. The annual trend is easing but monthly readings have been sticky above 3% since April 2025, creating the tension between the macro trend and the Merval’s pricing.
Related coverage:
Capitulation reversal: Merval Surges 4.42% in Reversal From Lows
PIIE framework: Argentina’s Fragile Monetary Framework Risks Renewed Volatility
Economy guide: Argentina Economy 2026: Growth, Reforms and Investor Guide
LatAm markets: Latin America Stock Markets 2026: Complete Guide
This report is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Always consult a licensed financial advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Published by The Rio Times.
Updated: 2026-05-11T08:00:00Z by Rio Times LatAm Markets Desk