USA & Canada Intelligence Brief for April 15, 2026

1 The banking K-shape crystallised this morning — Bank of America shattered Q1 estimates with $8.6 billion in net income (strongest EPS in roughly 20 years at $1.11 vs $1.01 expected), equities trading surged 30% to $2.83 billion in its best quarter ever, and NII rose 9% to $15.9 billion; Citigroup’s profit surged 42% with CEO Jane Fraser calling it an “exceptionally strong start,” markets revenue crossing $7 billion; but Wells Fargo tumbled 4.8% despite beating on EPS after its net interest income missed, exposing the “widening gap between the haves and have-nots” in the US banking sector

2 Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney suspended the federal fuel excise tax today as his first act after securing a majority government — calling it a “responsible, temporary measure” effective from next Monday until Labour Day, with the Liberals now holding 174 of 343 seats after winning three by-elections, making this the first government in Canadian history to switch from a minority to a majority between national elections, potentially keeping Carney in power until 2029

3 The Carney-Ontario housing partnership will remove up to $200,000 in taxes and fees from a new home purchase in the province — eliminating the full 13% HST for first-time buyers on homes up to $1 million (saving up to $130,000), cutting municipal development charges by up to 50% through $8.8 billion in cost-matched federal-provincial infrastructure funding over 10 years, and targeting 8,000 additional housing starts, 21,000 jobs and $2.7 billion in GDP contribution

4 Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway has reduced its Bank of America stake to below 9%, continuing a multi-year exit that analysts describe as a structural dampener on institutional sentiment — even as BofA just posted its strongest quarter in two decades, the Buffett departure signals that the Oracle of Omaha has concluded the bank’s risk-reward profile no longer meets his standards in an environment of $100+ oil, energy-driven inflation and a “higher for longer” rate regime

5 The federal fuel tax suspension applies only to the federal excise — provincial taxes remain in place, truckers and businesses also benefit from the reduced rate, but the measure addresses the price at the pump rather than the underlying supply constraint from Hormuz, creating a political win that does not solve the structural energy vulnerability that Canada shares with every oil-importing economy

TAX DAY April 15 deadline: 61M of 164M returns filed, refunds +10.6% ($352 higher avg), IRS CEO Bisignano testifying before Senate Finance today, Treasury Sec Bessent no longer acting commissioner (210-day limit), DOJ created new National Fraud Enforcement Division

IMF Iran war has “halted” global economic momentum — 3.1% growth, inflation to 4.4%, “higher for longer” forced on Fed and ECB, soft landing optimism ended, downside risks dominate outlook

M&A “Supercycle” confirmed across all major banks — antitrust shift under Trump unblocking deal backlog, BofA capturing key roles, Goldman and JPM also seeing thaw, investment banking revenues surging, lenient regulations = structural catalyst

O’HARE FAA wants airlines to cut flights at Chicago O’Hare this summer — congestion + fuel constraints combining, compounds European-style aviation crisis, major hub for American and United

COLLEGES 442 US colleges “may be in trouble” — Sterling College Vermont closing this semester, enrollment declines + financial pressures deepening, higher education structural crisis accelerating

PERU Election heading to June runoff — Fujimori 16.8%, López Aliaga 12.8% with 75% tallied, ballot delivery failures extended voting, 35 candidates, two conservatives likely to face off

EARNINGS • UNITED STATES

BofA Shatters Estimates, Citi +42%, Wells Fargo Tumbles — Banking K-Shape Crystallises

What happened: Bank of America reported first-quarter 2026 results this morning that exceeded expectations across every major metric. Net income reached $8.6 billion — a 17% year-over-year increase — with earnings per share of $1.11 against consensus of $1.01, the strongest EPS figure the bank has produced in roughly 20 years. Revenue hit $30.43 billion, up 7.2%, driven by net interest income of $15.9 billion (+9%), record equities trading revenue of $2.83 billion (+30%), and a resurgent investment banking division riding what analysts are calling an M&A “supercycle.” Citigroup matched the momentum: profit surged 42% to $5.8 billion, EPS of $3.06 crushed the $2.63 consensus, and markets revenue crossed $7 billion with fixed income up 13% and equities up 39%. CEO Jane Fraser called it an “exceptionally strong start in 2026.” Wells Fargo told the opposite story: despite beating on EPS, its net interest income missed estimates, sending shares down 4.8%. The NII shortfall exposed what analysts described as the “widening gap between the haves and have-nots” in the banking sector — institutions with diversified trading operations are profiting from crisis volatility while lending-focused banks are being squeezed by the rate environment.

So what: The banking K-shape is now definitive. BofA and Citi are the “haves” — their trading desks turn volatility into record profits, their investment banking divisions capture the M&A thaw, and their NII benefits from repricing fixed-rate assets at higher rates. Wells Fargo is the “have-not” — its turnaround story, with the asset cap finally removed, collided with a rate environment that compresses the very lending margins it depends on. The M&A supercycle is the new structural story: after years of strict antitrust scrutiny, the Trump administration’s shift toward lenient regulations has unblocked a deal backlog, generating investment banking fees across all major institutions. The $40 billion buyback programme that BofA could execute on Basel III relief is the shareholder return signal that institutional investors want. But Buffett below 9% is the contrarian voice: the Oracle of Omaha is selling BofA at its strongest quarter in two decades, which either means he sees risk the market does not or he is simply repositioning a concentrated legacy holding. For Latin American investors, the banking results confirm that US financial institutions are structurally sound and generating record capital — capital that flows into EM investments through institutional allocations. The M&A supercycle may also reach Latin America: lenient US antitrust regulation combined with strong bank balance sheets could catalyse cross-border dealmaking.

POLITICS • CANADA

Carney Suspends Fuel Tax — First Act as Majority PM, Historic Minority-to-Majority Transition

What happened: Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney suspended the federal fuel excise tax today as his first official act after securing a majority government — calling it a “responsible, temporary measure” that will take effect next Monday and run until Labour Day. The suspension will reduce pump prices for consumers and lower costs for truckers and businesses, though provincial fuel taxes remain in place. Carney’s Liberals now hold 174 of 343 seats in the House of Commons after winning three by-elections that became vacant since last year’s general election. This makes Carney’s government the first in Canadian history to transition from a minority to a majority between national elections. The Liberal Party could now stay in power until 2029 without facing the electorate. Carney said his government will focus on affordability, housing and accelerating major economic projects.

So what: Carney’s fuel tax suspension is a masterclass in political timing: his first act as majority PM addresses the issue that polls identify as Canadians’ top concern (cost of living), uses a tool that is immediately visible at the pump, and demonstrates that majority power translates into immediate action without the coalition negotiations that constrained his minority government. The measure is temporary and addresses price rather than supply — Canada’s fuel vulnerability to the Hormuz disruption is structural, and a tax suspension does not change the physical volume of oil available — but politically it is exactly what the moment requires. The historic minority-to-majority transition is the more consequential fact: Carney now governs without opposition support, which means he can pursue his entire legislative agenda — housing, infrastructure, CUSMA negotiations, energy diversification — on his own terms. For Latin American investors, Carney’s majority and his stated priorities (affordability, housing, major projects) create a more predictable Canadian investment environment. The fuel tax suspension specifically benefits Canadian consumers, which supports retail demand including for Latin American food exports to Canada.

ECONOMY • CANADA / ONTARIO

Ontario Housing Partnership: Up to $200K Off a New Home — $8.8B Infrastructure Commitment

What happened: The Carney-Ford partnership between the federal and Ontario governments will eliminate up to $200,000 in taxes and fees from the purchase of a new home in the province. The centrepiece is the removal of the full 13% HST for first-time buyers on new homes valued up to $1 million, saving up to $130,000. For homes valued between $1 million and $1.5 million, the maximum $130,000 rebate is maintained. Above $1.5 million, the rebate decreases proportionally to a maximum of $24,000 for homes at $1.85 million and above. The federal and Ontario governments will cost-match a total of $8.8 billion over 10 years for housing-enabling infrastructure projects, supporting the reduction of municipal development charges by up to 50% for three years across municipalities covering 80% of Ontario’s population. The Ontario government estimates the measures will deliver nearly $2.2 billion in tax relief, support an additional 8,000 housing starts per year, create up to 21,000 jobs, and contribute $2.7 billion to Ontario’s GDP. The HST elimination applies to eligible agreements signed between April 1, 2026 and March 31, 2027.

So what: The Ontario housing partnership is the most aggressive housing affordability intervention in Canadian history — and it is structured as a supply-side programme rather than a demand-side subsidy. The $130,000 HST saving on a $1 million home is transformative for first-time buyers who face the gap between what they can borrow and what homes cost. The development charge reduction (up to 50%) attacks the regulatory cost structure that makes new construction uneconomical in many municipalities: development charges in the Greater Toronto Area can exceed $100,000 per unit, a cost that developers pass directly to buyers. The $8.8 billion infrastructure commitment ensures that municipalities do not bear the revenue loss alone. The 8,000 additional housing starts target, if achieved, would represent a meaningful increase in a market where starts have been declining despite record demand. For Latin American investors, the Ontario housing programme is relevant because it signals that Canada is creating a construction boom through tax policy rather than waiting for market forces — a model that several Latin American countries are considering for their own housing affordability crises.

MARKETS • UNITED STATES

Buffett Below 9% in BofA — Oracle Exits as Bank Posts Strongest Quarter in Two Decades

What happened: Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway has reduced its Bank of America stake to below 9%, continuing a multi-year exit from what was once one of the conglomerate’s largest equity positions. The latest reduction was confirmed in regulatory filings as BofA simultaneously reported its strongest first-quarter results in approximately 20 years: $8.6 billion net income, $1.11 EPS, record equities trading, and a 17% profit increase. The Buffett exit has been a structural dampener on institutional sentiment — BofA’s stock is down roughly 8% year-to-date despite trailing 12-month gains of 49%, with the multi-year exit from Berkshire cited by analysts as one factor suppressing what would otherwise be a more aggressive valuation. The potential $40 billion share buyback programme, enabled by softened Basel III Endgame capital requirements, could offset the Buffett selling pressure if executed.

So what: When Warren Buffett sells a bank at its strongest quarter in 20 years, the market pays attention. The Oracle of Omaha’s investment framework has never been about short-term earnings beats — it is about long-term risk-reward assessment in a changing environment. Buffett’s BofA exit began before the Iran war, before $100+ oil, and before the “higher for longer” rate regime was confirmed by the IMF’s 4.4% inflation forecast. But the exit has continued through all of those developments, suggesting that Buffett’s assessment of the banking sector’s risk profile has not improved despite the record trading profits. The most likely interpretation is that Buffett views the current environment as one where banks generate exceptional short-term revenue from volatility but face structural challenges in their lending businesses — the very NII pressure that hit Wells Fargo today. The $40 billion buyback potential is the counter-narrative: if BofA executes at scale, it replaces Buffett’s selling with corporate demand for its own shares. For Latin American investors, the Buffett signal matters because Berkshire’s portfolio decisions influence billions in institutional copycat allocation — if Buffett is reducing bank exposure, other institutional investors may follow, which affects the capital available for EM deployment.

POLICY • CANADA

Fuel Tax Suspension: Federal Excise Only, Provincial Taxes Remain — Price Fix, Not Supply Fix

What happened: The federal fuel excise tax suspension that Carney announced today applies only to the federal component of Canada’s fuel taxation. Provincial taxes, which vary by province and represent a significant portion of the total fuel tax burden, remain in place. The suspension runs from next Monday through Labour Day, providing approximately five months of reduced pump prices. Truckers and businesses benefit alongside consumers. Carney described the measure as responding to fuel prices that have “increased sharply” due to the Iran war and the Hormuz disruption. The suspension does not address the underlying supply constraint: Canada, like every oil-importing economy, faces a structural vulnerability to chokepoint disruptions that no domestic tax policy can resolve. Canada is a net energy exporter (particularly of heavy crude from Alberta’s oil sands) but imports lighter crude grades for Eastern Canadian refineries, making the country simultaneously an energy producer and an energy-vulnerable consumer.

So what: Carney’s fuel tax suspension is the textbook political response to an energy crisis: visible, immediate, broadly felt, and temporary. It addresses the symptom (pump price) rather than the cause (Hormuz supply disruption) and creates fiscal cost (lost excise revenue) that can be absorbed in the short term but would become unsustainable if extended. The five-month duration through Labour Day is calibrated to cover the period when fuel prices are highest (driving season) and when political visibility of gas prices is greatest. The provincial tax question is the gap: if Ontario, British Columbia, Quebec and Alberta do not match the federal suspension, the relief at the pump will be partial, and Carney will face pressure to either extend the federal measure or pressure provinces to follow. Canada’s paradox as a net energy exporter that is fuel-vulnerable in its eastern provinces is the structural issue that no temporary tax measure addresses. For Latin American investors, the suspension is relevant because it demonstrates that North American governments are using fiscal tools to manage the energy shock — which reduces the political pressure for more dramatic interventions (price controls, export restrictions) that would disrupt commodity markets more severely.

Jane Fraser (Citi CEO) — “Exceptionally strong start.” Profit +42%. Markets $7B+. Equities +39%. Restructuring milestones delivering. Services +17%. Most consequential Citi quarter under her leadership. Stock rose pre-market. Proving the turnaround thesis

Mark Carney (Canada PM) — Fuel tax suspended. Majority government. Historic min→maj. Ontario $200K housing deal. Power until 2029. First act = affordability. No opposition needed. Fastest-moving new majority PM in Canadian history. Structural agenda now unconstrained

Warren Buffett (Berkshire CEO) — Below 9% in BofA. Selling at strongest quarter in 20 years. Multi-year exit. Risk-reward no longer meets standards. If Oracle of Omaha is reducing banks, institutional copycats follow. Most watched portfolio in finance

Doug Ford (Ontario Premier) — Housing partnership with Carney. $8.8B over 10 years. Development charges −50%. HST elimination. 80% of Ontario population covered. Cross-party housing deal. Rare federal-provincial alignment on affordability

Frank Bisignano (IRS CEO) — Testifying before Senate Finance today. Tax Day. 61M returns processed. Refunds +10.6%. Treasury Sec Bessent no longer acting commissioner. DOJ fraud division created. Filing season under unprecedented political + operational pressure

Basel III Endgame: Softened. BofA: 4.8% CET1 capital reduction. Unlocks potential $40B buyback over 18 months. But populist credit card rate cap at 10% = opposite regulatory pressure. Tug-of-war between capital relief and revenue restriction.

DOJ Fraud Division: New National Fraud Enforcement Division created. Criminal tax section moved. AG Blanche memo April 7. Focus on “fraud involving taxpayer dollars.” Questions on enforcement breadth vs narrowing.

Canada Fuel Tax: Federal excise suspended Monday–Labour Day. Provincial taxes remain. Truckers + businesses benefit. Does not solve supply constraint. Fiscal cost absorbed short-term.

Ontario Housing: HST eliminated for first-time buyers up to $1M. Dev charges −50%. $8.8B cost-matched infrastructure. Agreements April 1 2026–March 31 2027. 80% of provincial population covered.

APR 15 Tax Day — IRS deadline, Senate Finance hearing, Bisignano testimony

APR 15 Morgan Stanley Q1 earnings — investment banking, wealth management

APR 16 TSMC + Netflix + PepsiCo Q1 — semiconductor, streaming, consumer staples

APR 21 Canada fuel tax suspension takes effect — federal excise removed

APR 28 King Charles III addresses US Congress — first British monarch in 35 years

APR 30 US March PCE — Fed preferred inflation gauge, final pre-chair-transition data

Today’s USA & Canada intelligence brief captures the K-shape in its purest form. Bank of America’s $8.6 billion quarter and Citi’s 42% profit surge are the portrait of an America that profits from crisis: equities trading at records, M&A supercycle driving fees, NII expanding as assets reprice at higher rates. Wells Fargo’s 4.8% tumble on the NII miss is the portrait of another America: the lending-dependent bank that cannot escape the margin squeeze, whose turnaround narrative collides with a rate environment that punishes the very business it depends on. Both things are true simultaneously. The banking system is stronger than it has been in years — and the divergence within it is wider than at any point since 2008.

North of the border, Carney is demonstrating what a majority prime minister with a central banker’s instincts does in a fuel crisis: move immediately, move visibly, and build the structural programme underneath. The fuel tax suspension is the visibility play — every Canadian sees it at the pump. The Ontario housing partnership is the structural play — $200,000 off a home, $8.8 billion in infrastructure, 8,000 starts, 21,000 jobs. The historic minority-to-majority transition gives Carney the legislative freedom to execute both without coalition compromises. The question is whether the CUSMA review, the population flatline and the structural supply vulnerability survive intact beneath the political wins.

For Latin American investors, this USA & Canada intelligence brief delivers three signals. First, the M&A supercycle is the new structural catalyst for US financial markets — lenient antitrust, record bank capital and deal backlogs create conditions for cross-border transactions that could include Latin American targets. Second, Carney’s Ontario housing programme is a model that Latin American governments facing their own affordability crises should study: tax-based supply-side intervention is more sustainable than demand-side subsidies. Third, Buffett below 9% in BofA is the contrarian signal that should make every investor ask: if the greatest investor of the modern era is reducing bank exposure at the banks’ strongest quarter in 20 years, what does he see that the earnings reports do not show? The answer is probably in the Wells Fargo NII miss — the future of banking is not in the trading profits of today but in the lending margins of tomorrow, and those margins are thinning. TSMC, Netflix and PepsiCo report tomorrow. The semiconductor result sets the tone for the technology earnings season.