Global Economy Briefing — May 12, 2026
The S&P 500 rose 0.19% to 7,412.84 on Monday, May 11, its first close above 7,400, even as President Trump rejected Iran’s latest peace proposal as “TOTALLY UNACCEPTABLE” and declared the ceasefire “on life support.”…
The S&P 500 rose 0.19% to 7,412.84 on Monday, May 11, its first close above 7,400, even as President Trump rejected Iran’s latest peace proposal as “TOTALLY UNACCEPTABLE” and declared the ceasefire “on life support.” The Nasdaq gained 0.10% to a record 26,274.13 and the Dow added 95 points to 49,704.47.
Oil climbed roughly 3% with WTI near $103 and Brent near $106, but the semiconductor index surged 2.5% and copper hit a record close of $6.46 per pound, up 13% year-to-date. South Korea’s KOSPI gapped 4.7% higher at the open to a fresh record.
Yardeni Research raised its year-end S&P 500 target to 8,250. Existing home sales edged to 4.02 million (slightly below the 4.05 million consensus). Below: why equities are decoupling from the war, the copper signal, KOSPI’s breakout, and what to watch ahead of CPI on Tuesday.
The Big Three
• S&P 500 closes above 7,400 for the first time at 7,412.84 as the semiconductor index surges 2.5%, Qualcomm hits a record (+7.6%), and AI momentum overrides Trump’s rejection of Iran’s peace proposal.
• Copper closes at an all-time high of $6.46 per pound, up more than 13% in 2026, signaling that the global industrial recovery trade is accelerating despite the war and elevated energy costs.
• Trump declares ceasefire “on life support” after calling Iran’s counterproposal “TOTALLY UNACCEPTABLE,” yet equities rose and oil’s 3% gain failed to derail the rally, confirming the market’s structural decoupling from the war.
Economic Dashboard
| INDICATOR | LATEST | PREV | Δ DAY | Δ YTD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | 7,412.84 | 7,398.93 | +0.19% | +20.9% |
| Nasdaq Composite | 26,274.13 | 26,131.38 | +0.10% | +26.4% |
| Dow Jones | 49,704.47 | 49,609.16 | +0.19% | +9.1% |
| SOX Semiconductor Index | +2.5% | — | +2.5% | +42% |
| WTI Crude | ~$103 | $100.10 | ~+3% | +43% |
| Brent Crude | ~$106 | $102.68 | ~+3% | +34% |
| Copper (LME) | $6.46/lb | $6.32 | +2.2% | +13% |
| US 10-Year Yield | 4.41% | 4.36% | +4.6 bps | +31 bps |
| US 3-Year Note Auction | 3.965% | 3.897% | +6.8 bps | n/a |
| US Existing Home Sales (Apr) | 4.02M | 4.01M | Below 4.05M est. | n/a |
| KOSPI | +4.7% | — | New Record | +28% |
As of close, May 11, 2026. Sources: CNBC Markets, Reuters, Trading Economics.
S&P 500 clears 7,400 as semiconductors surge 2.5% and Yardeni targets 8,250
The S&P 500 rose 0.19% to 7,412.84 with both the broad index and the Nasdaq hitting fresh intraday and closing records, according to CNBC. The PHLX Semiconductor Index surged 2.5%, with Qualcomm jumping 7.6% to a record high and Intel adding 2% after Friday’s 14% surge on reports of a preliminary chip-making agreement with Apple, according to Reuters. “The semis and AI infrastructure trade has taken on a life entirely of its own,” said Ross Mayfield, investment strategy analyst at Baird.
Ed Yardeni of Yardeni Research raised his year-end S&P 500 target to 8,250 from 7,700, telling CNBC: “I’ve been bullish, but not bullish enough. The earnings estimates of analysts have been phenomenal. I’ve never seen anything like it.” S&P 500 Q1 earnings are tracking near 25-28% year-on-year growth, according to Edward Jones, with full-year 2026 EPS projected to rise 18.7%. Fox Corp rose 4.7% on revenue beats. Energy was the top-performing S&P 500 sector as oil rose. Communication services lagged. The VIX rose 7% on the Iran rejection but remained below 17, consistent with a market that acknowledges geopolitical risk but does not price it as systemic.
Trump calls Iran proposal “TOTALLY UNACCEPTABLE,” ceasefire “on life support”
Iran sent a counterproposal through Pakistani mediators seeking an end to the conflict, the lifting of the US blockade, release of frozen assets, and an end to what it called “piracy” against Iranian vessels, according to Iran’s semi-official Tasnim news agency cited by TheStreet. Iranian spokesperson Esmaeil Baghaei described Tehran’s terms as “generous” and “legitimate,” including opening the Strait of Hormuz and ending Israel’s war in Lebanon as part of a “responsible offer for regional security.” Trump rejected the proposal on Truth Social, and told reporters in the Oval Office that the ceasefire was “on life support” and “unbelievably weak.”
Trump is expected to encourage China to pressure Iran during his visit to Beijing later this week, where he is scheduled to meet President Xi Jinping, according to CBS. Iran also warned that any UK or French warships in the Strait “will be met with a decisive response,” according to TheStreet. Despite this escalation in rhetoric, the S&P 500 rose and the Nasdaq hit records. The market’s thesis is now explicit: AI-driven earnings growth is structurally independent of the war, and geopolitical risk is priced as volatility rather than direction. As analyzed in our May 7 global economy briefing, the inverse oil-equity correlation has persisted for seven weeks. Monday broke the pattern: oil rose 3% and equities rose too.
Copper hits record $6.46 as KOSPI surges 4.7% to new peak on semiconductor demand
Copper closed at a record $6.4605 per pound on Monday, rising more than 2% and hitting an intraday high of $6.509, according to CNBC. The metal is now up more than 13% in 2026. Copper’s record is the clearest non-equity signal of the global industrial recovery: the metal prices construction, electronics, data-center infrastructure, and electric-vehicle manufacturing demand. CFTC data from April 18 showed speculative copper longs surging to 55.1K from 40.2K, and the positioning buildup has continued. The copper-oil ratio (copper up 13% vs. oil up 43%) reflects the market’s view that industrial demand will outlast the war premium in energy.
South Korea’s KOSPI gapped 4.70% higher at the open to a fresh record on Monday, led by SK Hynix (+10.74%), tracking Friday’s US chip rally, according to CNBC. China’s CSI 300 added 0.58% while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng dipped 0.48%. Japan’s Nikkei traded choppy, with Nintendo falling 5.5% on Switch 2 pricing concerns. Australia’s ASX 200 fell 0.83% as the RBA hike at 4.35% continued to weigh on rate-sensitive sectors. Existing home sales in the US edged to 4.02 million (slightly below the 4.05 million consensus), with the monthly change at +0.2% after March’s -2.9% decline. The 3-year Treasury note auction cleared at 3.965% (prior 3.897%), continuing the modest upward trend in front-end yields.
European short-term yields ease as German and French auctions clear lower
German Bubill yields declined: the 12-month auction cleared at 2.482% (prior 2.517%) and 6-month at 2.257% (prior 2.310%). French BTF yields also eased: 12-month at 2.613% (prior 2.670%), 6-month at 2.421% (prior 2.476%), and 3-month at 2.234% (prior 2.219%). The front-end easing across both Germany and France reverses the upward trend from early May and suggests the ECB hold at 2.15% is giving the short end room to compress. French reserve assets declined to 386,898 million from 390,629 million.
The data calendar was thin on Monday. The BCB Focus readout was released in Brazil, providing the latest market expectations for IPCA and GDP ahead of the next Copom decision cycle. The CB Employment Trends Index ticked up to 105.77 from 105.52, consistent with stable labor demand. The German Buba monthly report was released alongside the auctions. As covered in our May 8 global economy briefing, German factory orders surged 5.0% while construction collapsed to 41.7. Monday’s Bubill easing suggests the bond market is beginning to price the ECB’s eventual response to the activity weakness.
What to Watch This Week
Tuesday, May 12, 8:30 AM ET · US CPI, April (consensus ~0.4% MoM; core CPI the key variable for Warsh’s first meeting; oil pass-through to headline is the focus)
Tuesday, May 12 · UK GDP, March and Q1 (post-war first read; February’s 0.5% was pre-war strength)
Wednesday, May 13 · Cisco, Applied Materials, and Nvidia (May 28) earnings (semiconductor capex guidance watch)
Thursday, May 14 · US PPI, April (producer-pipeline check after core PPI 0.1% MoM in March)
Thursday, May 14 · US Retail Sales, April (March beat at 1.7%; consumer resilience test with oil above $100)
This week · Trump’s China visit and Xi meeting (pressure Iran via Beijing; potential trade/deal implications)
Frequently Asked Questions
Why did the S&P 500 rise despite Trump rejecting Iran’s peace deal?
The S&P 500 closed at a record 7,412.84 on May 11 even after Trump called Iran’s proposal “TOTALLY UNACCEPTABLE” because the market has structurally decoupled from the war. The semiconductor index surged 2.5%, driven by AI demand that is independent of geopolitics. S&P 500 Q1 earnings are tracking 25-28% year-on-year growth, and Yardeni Research raised its year-end target to 8,250. Investors are pricing earnings strength over geopolitical risk.
What does the copper record signal for the global economy?
Copper closed at $6.46 per pound on May 11, an all-time high, up more than 13% in 2026. Copper is considered a barometer of industrial demand because it is used in construction, electronics, data centers, and electric vehicles. The record suggests that global manufacturing and infrastructure investment are accelerating despite the Iran war. CFTC speculative copper longs have surged in recent weeks, reflecting institutional conviction in the post-war industrial recovery thesis.
Is the US-Iran ceasefire about to collapse?
President Trump said on May 11 that the ceasefire is “on life support” and “unbelievably weak” after Iran’s counterproposal was rejected. Iran is seeking an end to the US blockade, the lifting of sanctions, and the release of frozen assets. The Strait of Hormuz remains closed. Trump is expected to press China’s Xi Jinping to pressure Iran during his Beijing visit this week. The war has been ongoing since February 28 with no formal timeline for resolution.
Why is the KOSPI at record highs?
South Korea’s KOSPI opened 4.7% higher to a new record on May 11, led by SK Hynix (+10.7%), which tracked Friday’s US semiconductor rally. Korea’s Q1 GDP beat at 3.6% year-on-year, driven by the semiconductor export boom (exports up 48% in April). The KOSPI is up approximately 28% year-to-date. Korea’s economy is the most direct beneficiary of the AI-driven semiconductor supercycle, with Samsung and SK Hynix as the world’s dominant memory chip producers.
When is the next US CPI report?
The April CPI report is scheduled for Tuesday, May 12, at 8:30 AM ET. Consensus expects approximately 0.4% month-on-month. Core CPI is the key variable for incoming Fed Chair Kevin Warsh, who takes office around May 15. The March core CPI was 2.6% year-on-year. The oil pass-through to the headline is the primary focus, with gasoline prices up more than 30% since the war began on February 28.
Updated: 2026-05-12T08:00:00Z by Matt Camenzind
Previously: Global Economy Briefing — May 8, 2026 · Global Economy Briefing — May 7, 2026 · Global Economy Briefing — May 6, 2026 · Sources: Trading Economics · CNBC Markets · Edward Jones · The Rio Times
Global economic intelligence, daily
Markets, macro, and policy — for the Latin American financial community.