IEA Says World Oil Reserves Draining at “Record Pace” on Iran War

For Latin America the institutional alert from the IEA-IMF-World Bank trio reads two ways at once: oil-importing economies including Mexico, Chile, Peru, the Dominican Republic and Central America face the fiscal and inflation pressure the group was set up to manage, while crude producers Brazil, Venezuela, Colombia, Argentina, Guyana and Suriname stand to benefit from the structural redirection of Atlantic-basin flows toward Asian markets.

What did the IEA’s May 13 report actually say?

The Paris-based International Energy Agency, in its May monthly oil-market report, warned that the world is “running through oil stocks at a record pace” as Middle East war-related supply losses compound for the tenth consecutive week. Global oil inventories fell by 117 million barrels in April, on top of the 129 million-barrel drawdown in March that followed the February 28 start of the US-Israel offensive against Iran. The cumulative two-month draw of 246 million barrels equals roughly 4 million barrels per day of net withdrawal.

“The rapid contraction of reserves, amid these continuing disruptions, may foreshadow further increases in crude prices,” the IEA wrote in the report. Global oil supply fell to 95.1 million barrels per day in April, with the cumulative loss since February now at 12.8 million bpd. Iran has effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz to commercial traffic in retaliation for the offensive, while the US has imposed a naval blockade of Iranian ports since mid-April, per El Nacional.

What is the IMF-World Bank-IEA coordination group?

On April 1, 2026, the heads of the IEA, IMF, and World Bank Group jointly announced the formation of a coordination group to manage the institutional response to the energy and economic disruption from the Middle East war. The mechanism has three operational pillars: data sharing on energy markets, prices, trade flows, fiscal pressures, balance-of-payments, inflation, commodity-export restrictions and supply-chain disruptions; coordinated policy advice and financial support including concessional financing; and mobilization of other multilateral, regional and bilateral partners.

Source: IEA May 2026 monthly oil-market report; IMF April 9 spring meetings curtain raiser; World Bank Group April 1 joint statement.

IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva announced at the April spring meetings that the Fund expects demand for IMF balance-of-payments support to rise by US$20-50 billion, with the lower end of the range conditional on a Middle East ceasefire holding. “Yes, our 191 member countries can count on our financial support if they need it,” she said. The IMF has signaled it will assume the macroeconomic policy leadership inside the coordination group, with the IEA leading energy-security analysis and the World Bank Group leading concessional-finance deployment, per IMF Spring Meetings.

How does this affect Latin America specifically?

The IEA’s data reveals an explicit Latin American beneficiary group. Atlantic-basin crude exports to markets east of Suez have risen by 3.5 million barrels per day since February, with “notable advances” from the United States, Brazil, Canada, Kazakhstan and Venezuela. Brazil’s Petrobras, Colombia’s Ecopetrol, Argentina’s Vaca Muerta unconventional producers, and Guyana and Suriname’s offshore developments are positioned as primary suppliers in the geographic redirection. Venezuela’s reentry to the export market is particularly notable given the BlackRock optimism Larry Fink expressed earlier this week.

The reverse exposure runs through energy-importing Latin American economies. Mexico imports approximately 30% of its diesel demand and faces a 5-6% construction-cost shock, Chile imports nearly all its hydrocarbons, Peru and the Dominican Republic are heavy fuel-import buyers, and Central American economies including Honduras, El Salvador and Guatemala face proportionally larger oil-import bills. The IMF-WB-IEA coordination group is structured around exactly this distinction, with concessional financing reserved for the lowest-income importers, per El Universal.

What does the IEA expect for the rest of 2026?

If crude flows progressively resume through the Strait of Hormuz starting in June, the IEA projects global oil supply will average 102.25 million bpd in 2026, a contraction of 3.9 million bpd from the pre-war baseline. The demand-side outlook has deteriorated more sharply. The agency now expects global demand to contract by 2.4 million bpd in the second quarter and to fall 420,000 bpd for the year as a whole, 1.3 million bpd weaker than the pre-conflict forecast.

The losses concentrate in the petrochemical sector, where feedstock availability is increasingly constrained, and in aviation, where jet-fuel prices have nearly tripled and airlines have warned of fuel shortages within weeks if the crisis continues. The IEA released 164 million barrels of the 400 million barrels of strategic reserves authorized by its 32 member countries in March, and expects more volumes to reach the market in the coming months.

What should investors and analysts watch next?

• Hormuz reopening signals: the IEA’s base case assumes progressive resumption in June. Any sign that the strait remains closed past Q3 would push 2026 oil supply below 95 million bpd, pressuring prices further.
• IMF program activations: Georgieva’s US$20-50 billion envelope is the institutional read on country-level distress. Watch which Latin American countries access emergency facilities and at what scale.
• Petrobras and Ecopetrol export volumes: the 3.5 million bpd Atlantic-basin uplift includes Brazilian and Colombian contributions. Q2 export data will quantify the upside for state oil companies and their dividend capacity.
• Strategic-reserve depletion pace: 164 million of 400 million authorized barrels released; at the April pace the remaining authorization is exhausted in about 60 days, after which prices lose the buffer.
• Latin American currency response: the Mexican peso, Chilean peso, Colombian peso, and Brazilian real face divergent pressures depending on whether they are net oil importers or exporters. Watch for differential weakness among the importers.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Strait of Hormuz and why does it matter?

The Strait of Hormuz is the maritime corridor between the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman, through which roughly 20% of global oil and significant volumes of liquefied natural gas transit. Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Kuwait, Iraq, Bahrain, Qatar and Iran all rely on the route for crude exports. Iran’s effective closure of the strait since late February 2026 has been the single largest factor in the oil-market disruption.

What is the IEA?

The International Energy Agency, headquartered in Paris, was created in 1974 to help member countries coordinate collective responses to major oil-supply disruptions. It has 32 member countries, runs joint emergency-stock release mechanisms, and publishes the monthly Oil Market Report that is the global reference for production, demand and inventory data.

How does the coordination group help countries?

The IEA-IMF-World Bank group operates on three lines. Data sharing produces a coordinated picture of how the supply shock is hitting each country. Policy advice helps governments avoid mistakes like blanket fuel subsidies that distort prices. Financial support, primarily through IMF balance-of-payments lending and World Bank concessional finance, fills the foreign-exchange gap for the most exposed importers.

Which Latin American countries benefit and which lose?

Net oil exporters benefit: Brazil, Colombia, Venezuela, Guyana, Suriname, and to a lesser extent Argentina. Net importers face fiscal and inflation pressure: Mexico (which imports much of its diesel and gasoline despite being a crude producer), Chile, Peru, Central America, the Dominican Republic, and most Caribbean economies. The asymmetry runs along the same line that the coordination group’s design follows.

When could the crisis end?

The IEA’s working assumption is progressive reopening of the Strait of Hormuz starting in June 2026, but recent comments by President Trump describing the ceasefire as on “life support” have raised the probability that the disruption extends through the third quarter. Resolution depends on a US-Iran diplomatic settlement that has so far been elusive.

Connected Coverage

Related Rio Times coverage: Petrobras signals gasoline hike as Brent hits US$103 · Iran war adds 5-6% to Mexican home costs · BlackRock’s Fink “quite bullish” on Venezuela.

Published: 2026-05-13T20:00:00-03:00 · Updated: 2026-05-13T20:00:00-03:00 · Dateline: PARIS

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