USA & Canada Intelligence Brief for Monday, April 20, 2026

Today’s US and Canada intelligence brief leads with the earnings result that sets the tone for the most consequential reporting season since the war began. Goldman Sachs reported its second-highest quarterly profit ever, powered by a record haul in equities trading. But the result that moved markets was the miss: fixed-income, currencies, and commodities (FICC) revenue fell short of expectations, sending the stock down 1.9% despite the headline beat. The divergence — equities soaring while FICC disappoints — captures the split personality of Wall Street during the war: equity markets have rallied to all-time highs on ceasefire optimism, while the physical commodity and currency markets that FICC desks trade remain too volatile and unpredictable to monetise reliably.

The Goldman result is the opening statement of an earnings season that Yahoo Finance describes as “tricky” for Wall Street’s biggest banks. The bank’s CEO navigated the call without forward guidance that acknowledged the ceasefire could collapse within 48 hours — a diplomatic omission that every subsequent reporting CEO must also manage. The practical question for every company reporting this week: how do you guide forward when the ceasefire expires Tuesday, the US is seizing ships in the Gulf of Oman, and oil prices swing 10% in a single day? Goldman’s answer was to let the record equity profit carry the headline and bury the FICC miss in the detail. That strategy worked for one day. Whether it works for the season depends on whether Tuesday delivers extension or escalation.

For Latin American investors, Goldman’s earnings reveal the specific financial market conditions that shape Latin American capital flows. The record equity profit means Goldman’s equity desks are actively deploying capital — including into Latin American markets that have lagged the US recovery and offer catch-up potential. The FICC miss means Goldman’s commodity and currency desks are finding the war’s volatility harder to trade profitably — which reduces the bank’s appetite for emerging market currency risk and commodity positions that Latin American trading counterparts depend on. As our previous US and Canada intelligence brief tracked, the S&P hit all-time highs. Goldman’s earnings confirm that the rally is real but uneven: equity is king, FICC is struggling, and every subsequent bank’s results will either confirm or contradict the pattern.

The United States has extended its waiver on Russian oil sanctions, just days after Treasury Secretary Bessent ruled out such an extension and declared the “financial equivalent of bombing Iran” through secondary sanctions on Chinese, Emirati, and Omani banks. The reversal — reported by Fortune — is the most significant policy contradiction of the crisis: the administration is simultaneously threatening to sanction banks that do business with Iran while extending the waivers that allow Russian oil to flow into global markets. The reason is arithmetic: the Hormuz closure removed approximately 20% of global seaborne crude supply, and the US cannot enforce a naval blockade on Iran while simultaneously enforcing sanctions that remove Russian supply. One constraint must yield. Russia’s oil won.

The waiver extension directly affects this US and Canada intelligence brief’s previous reporting on India’s crude sourcing crisis. Our Thursday brief documented that the US had ended waivers for Russian AND Iranian oil, forcing India to recalibrate its entire sourcing strategy. The extension partially reverses that pressure — Indian refiners can continue purchasing Russian crude without immediate secondary sanctions risk, though the legal uncertainty remains elevated. The policy whipsaw — Bessent ruling it out, the administration extending it days later — destroys the predictability that trade compliance departments require. Every Indian, Chinese, and Southeast Asian refiner that made sourcing decisions based on Bessent’s statement now faces a different policy reality.

For Latin American investors, the Russian oil waiver extension modifies the demand-side thesis our previous brief established. If Russian crude continues flowing to Asian buyers with US permission, the redirected demand for Latin American crude (Brazilian pre-salt, Guyanese Stabroek, Colombian Castilla) is smaller than the 700,000-1,000,000 barrels per day we projected. But the waiver is temporary and the policy is unstable — Bessent publicly opposed it, the administration extended it anyway, and the next reversal could come at any point. Latin American crude producers benefit from the structural uncertainty itself: buyers who cannot rely on consistent Russian supply pay a reliability premium for supply from jurisdictions (Brazil, Guyana, Colombia) where the sanctions risk is zero. The waiver extension reduces the volume opportunity but does not eliminate the premium opportunity.

Last week the S&P 500 completed a recovery that seemed impossible seven weeks ago: the index rose to its highest level since late February, wiping out every point lost since the Iran war began on February 28. Bloomberg reported the S&P gained 1% in a single session when Trump said Iran “still wanted to make a deal,” reaching all-time record territory at 7,022. Monday’s session tells a different story: the Dow lost 53 points (-0.1%), the S&P shed 0.3%, and the Nasdaq pulled back 0.6% after the weekend’s ship seizure and Hormuz reversal. But the losses were remarkably contained given the escalation — prompting Aptus Capital’s David Wagner to declare that “the war with Iran is now in the rearview mirror for the market.”

Wagner’s assessment deserves interrogation rather than acceptance. The market has been conditioned by the “TACO trade” — “Trump Always Chickens Out” — a pattern established during the tariff crisis when Trump reversed his most aggressive positions after markets declined. Investors are applying the same framework to the Iran war: Trump escalates, markets sell, Trump de-escalates, markets rally. The pattern has worked three times in seven weeks. But the ship seizure represents something the tariff reversals did not: kinetic military action within a ceasefire framework. Trump did not reverse the tariffs by firing on Chinese cargo ships. He reversed them with a social media post. The Iran escalation involves the USS Spruance firing rounds into an engine room. The de-escalation mechanism that the TACO trade assumes requires both sides to step back. Iran’s Qalibaf has stated that passage is “impossible” while Iran’s own ports are blockaded. The TACO framework may not apply when the other party refuses to chicken out.

For Latin American investors, the S&P’s whipsaw — from near-correction to all-time highs and now pulling back — creates the volatility environment that Latin American portfolio managers must navigate. Brazilian, Mexican, and Colombian equity markets correlate with the S&P but with higher beta: when the S&P moves 1%, Bovespa often moves 1.5-2%. The S&P’s -0.3% Monday translates to larger moves in São Paulo and Mexico City. The question for Tuesday: if the ceasefire expires without extension, does the S&P return to correction territory — and if so, does the Latin American sell-off that follows create buying opportunities for investors who believe the structural fundamentals (AI demand, Latin American commodity positioning, post-crisis recovery) are intact? Monday’s contained losses suggest the market believes in extension. Tuesday determines whether that belief is vindicated.

Goldman’s mixed result opens a week where Wall Street’s ability to price corporate America will be tested by an event no earnings model can forecast: the ceasefire expiry on Tuesday. Yahoo Finance characterised the season as “tricky” for CEOs who must manage war uncertainty in their forward guidance. Goldman navigated by letting record equity profit dominate the narrative. Netflix disappointed on Thursday, suggesting the consumer affordability squeeze is reaching entertainment spending. The pattern for the week: backwards-looking results may be strong (Q1 captured the war’s early weeks but also the pre-war momentum); forward guidance is where the risk concentrates.

The airline sector provides the most acute example. Delta CEO Bastian disclosed an additional $2.5 billion in fuel costs for the quarter and warned that any “flying on the margin” would be “reconsidered.” The IEA warned that Europe has “maybe six weeks” of jet fuel supplies remaining. KLM is cutting 80 return flights from Schiphol. United, Lufthansa, and Cathay Pacific have all pruned schedules. Global airline capacity for May has been reduced by approximately 3 percentage points, with 19 of the 20 largest carriers slashing flights. Monday’s trading confirmed the impact: Delta, United, Southwest, and American Airlines all fell more than 2%. The aviation sector is the earnings canary — the industry most directly exposed to the war’s cost structure and the one where forward guidance cannot hide behind optimistic assumptions about Hormuz reopening.

For Latin American investors, the US earnings season shapes capital allocation decisions that flow directly into Latin American markets. Strong US earnings — like Goldman’s equity record — support the global risk appetite that drives capital into emerging markets. Weak forward guidance — like Delta’s $2.5 billion fuel warning and Netflix’s miss — signals that the war’s costs are passing through to corporate America and constraining the profit outlook that stock prices depend on. Latin American airlines (LATAM Airlines Group, Avianca, Gol, Copa) face identical jet fuel pressures to their US counterparts — but with thinner margins and less hedging capacity. If the IEA’s “six weeks of European jet fuel” warning materialises into actual supply constraints, Latin American carriers sourcing fuel from European-connected supply chains (transatlantic routes, European hub connections) face the same capacity reductions that KLM and Lufthansa have already announced. The earnings season is the data feed. Tuesday’s ceasefire expiry is the variable that every data point depends on.

Critical

Ceasefire Expires Tuesday — USS Spruance Seized a Ship Sunday — Iran: “Impossible for Others to Pass While We Cannot”

The two-week ceasefire expires in ~24 hours. Trump says talks resuming in Islamabad. Iran says “no plan” for talks. The US seized an Iranian ship and forced 23 vessels to turn around. Iran reclosed Hormuz after briefly opening it Friday. Oil swung 10% down Friday, 5% up Monday. The ceasefire framework is intact. The implementation zone is a naval combat zone. Tuesday determines everything.

Tense

Policy Contradictions Mounting: Secondary Sanctions + Russian Waiver Extension Cannot Coexist

Bessent: “financial equivalent of bombing Iran” via secondary sanctions on Chinese/Emirati/Omani banks. Same week: US extends Russian oil waiver to ease supply shortages. The administration is sanctioning Iran’s trade partners while extending waivers for Russia’s oil. The contradiction reveals the priority hierarchy: supply security > sanctions enforcement. Every trade compliance department globally must now price policy instability as a permanent feature.

Positive

Goldman Record Equity Profit + Software Stocks Rising + S&P Losses Contained = Market Believes in Extension

Goldman’s equity trading record. Software/AI stocks up while market fell. S&P down only 0.3% despite a ship seizure. “The war is in the rearview mirror” (Wagner). The market has decided the ceasefire extends and the war ends. If correct: the rally resumes. If wrong: the correction that the TACO trade has prevented arrives with accumulated force.

Watching

Global Aviation Crisis: IEA Says Europe Has 6 Weeks of Jet Fuel — Summer Travel Season at Risk

IEA: “maybe six weeks” of European jet fuel supplies. KLM cutting 80 flights. 19/20 largest airlines reducing capacity. Delta: $2.5B extra fuel costs. Ryanair, Virgin Atlantic, EasyJet forecasting supply only through mid-May. Nigerian airlines threatened shutdown today. The jet fuel crisis is now the most acute operational constraint in global aviation — and it cannot be solved by a ceasefire alone because Qatar’s Ras Laffan (which produced jet fuel feedstock) needs 3-5 years of repair.

Second-highest profit in Goldman’s history. Stock fell. The FICC miss is the tell: the physical commodity and currency markets that the war was supposed to make profitable are too chaotic to trade. Equity desks profit from the rally. FICC desks need tradeable volatility — moves that follow patterns, produce spreads, create opportunities. The Hormuz whipsaw (open Friday, closed Saturday, ship seized Sunday, oil ±10%) is not tradeable volatility. It is noise. Goldman’s equity profit says the financial economy is thriving. Goldman’s FICC miss says the physical economy is ungovernable. Every bank reporting this week faces the same split.

Monday: launch the “financial equivalent of bombing Iran.” Friday: extend the Russian oil waiver. The policy is incoherent — and the incoherence is the policy. The administration needs oil prices to fall (midterm politics) and needs Iran pressured (war objectives) and needs Russia sanctioned (alliance obligations) and needs global supply flowing (economic stability). These four goals are mutually exclusive. The Russian waiver extension is the admission that one goal must yield. Russia’s oil won because the alternative — removing Russian supply while Hormuz is closed — would send Brent above $120 and gas above $5. Bessent was overruled by the pump price. Every Latin American refiner that restructured procurement based on Bessent’s Monday statement now faces Friday’s reversal. The compliance environment is not difficult because the rules are complex. It is difficult because the rules change weekly.

“Trump Always Chickens Out.” The market thesis that has powered the recovery from near-correction to all-time highs. The ship seizure is the first test of whether TACO applies to kinetic military action, not just social media threats. Trump reversed tariffs with a post. He reversed the Tuesday deadline with an extension. The market extrapolates: he’ll reverse the war with a deal. But the USS Spruance didn’t fire a tweet into the Touska’s engine room. It fired rounds. And Iran’s Qalibaf stated on national television that passage is “impossible” while Iran’s ports are blockaded. The TACO framework assumes the other side chickens out too. Iran has shown no sign of chickening out for seven weeks. The market is pricing American de-escalation. Iran is pricing reciprocal escalation. One of them is wrong. Tuesday reveals which.

IEA: Europe has six weeks of jet fuel. Nineteen of twenty largest airlines cutting flights. Delta’s extra fuel bill is $2.5 billion — in one quarter. And the summer travel season starts in six weeks. The jet fuel crisis is where the war meets the consumer. Every cancelled KLM flight from Schiphol is a family that doesn’t fly to their holiday. Every cut United route is a business meeting that becomes a video call. The IEA’s six-week warning means that even if the ceasefire extends Tuesday, Europe’s jet fuel runs out by early June. Nigeria’s airlines threatened to ground today. The crisis that started in the Gulf of Oman has reached the departure gates of Amsterdam, Chicago, and Lagos. No ceasefire extension refines jet fuel. Only refineries do.