Merval Slips 0.23% to 2,991,781 as 3-Million Battle Enters Eighth Round

01 Market Snapshot

02 Equities — Groundhog Day at 3 Million

The Merval Argentina today enters Tuesday in the same place it has been for three weeks: functionally at 3 million. Monday’s −0.23% close at 2,991,781 was the eighth session of the 3M gravitational dance — the index broke above the level intraday (touching 3,031,730) and closed below it. Again. This is part of The Rio Times’ daily coverage of the Argentine stock market and Latin American financial markets. For context, see our prior report: Merval Just 392 Points Below 3M as Momentum Builds.

What makes Monday interesting is not the price action — it is the absence of reaction. The Iran blockade sent Colombia up 1.98% and Mexico down 0.61%. Argentina barely moved. The Merval’s indifference to the oil spike reflects its ambiguous positioning: Vaca Muerta production at record highs means YPF and energy names benefit from $99 Brent, but the broader economy still imports refined fuel and the inflationary impact of $100 oil threatens the BCRA’s disinflation campaign. The Merval priced the net effect at approximately zero — and that is itself a bullish signal, because the index refused to sell off on a headline that crushed net importers.

The monthly gain of 14.90% and YoY return of 26.63% confirm the secular trend. The index is 9.2% below the January 28 ATH of 3,296,502. Financial names (Galicia, Macro, BYMA) at 1.7–1.8x book value remain the consensus overweight, with YPF the momentum trade.

03 The Oil Paradox — Why Argentina Is Neutral

Argentina’s ambiguous oil exposure explains Monday’s flat session. On the positive side: Vaca Muerta shale production hit records in 2025, generating energy surplus and dollar export revenues. YPF’s cash flows surge at $99 Brent. On the negative side: the broader economy still imports refined fuel, $100 oil raises transport and food costs, and inflation at ~22% annualised (2% monthly) is still well above the budget target of 10.1%. The BCRA’s disinflation trajectory — from 300% to 22% — is Milei’s crowning achievement, and an oil-driven inflation spike would undermine it.

The net result: YPF and energy names rally, banks and consumer names sell, and the index goes nowhere. This dynamic will persist as long as Brent stays in the $95–$105 range. A genuine breakout in either direction — Brent below $85 or above $115 — would shift the balance and move the Merval out of the 3M range.

04 Fiscal Surplus and Debt: The Stress Test Continues

Milei’s primary fiscal surplus — the cornerstone of his reform program — remains under pressure. Tax revenues have declined in real terms for seven consecutive months as the economy softens. Subsidy cuts on energy and public transport are translating into higher utility bills and more expensive commutes, testing social patience. The labour reform’s partial judicial suspension adds execution risk. With US$19 billion in debt maturities due in 2026, refinancing conditions are critical — and country risk at ~500 bps is right at the threshold where private market access becomes possible. As covered in our Argentina Economy 2026 guide, the US$42 billion external support package provides the backstop.

The soybean harvest — Argentina’s seasonal dollar inflow — enters peak season in April. A strong harvest would boost BCRA reserve accumulation (targeting US$10 billion for 2026), support the peso within the crawling band, and ease the debt maturity crunch. The harvest is the most important near-term positive catalyst for fixed-income markets and, by extension, the Merval.

05 Technical Analysis — Merval Daily

The daily chart tells two stories simultaneously. The price story is consolidation: the Merval has been range-bound between 2,920,000 and 3,032,000 for three weeks, with 3 million as the magnetic centre. Monday’s candle (open 2,998,770, high 3,031,730, low 2,985,795, close 2,991,781) is another doji-like indecision bar that confirms the range. But the momentum story is bullish: the MACD histogram at 63,298 is expanding, the MACD line at 39,063 is well above the signal at 24,235, and the spread between the two is widening.

The RSI reads 62.36 on the fast line and 59.12 on the slow — both trending higher and converging, which typically precedes an acceleration move. Neither is overbought, leaving room for a breakout above 3M. The Ichimoku cloud shows price above the cloud, with the upper boundary near 2,982,566. Monday’s low of 2,985,795 held above the cloud — the bulls are defending this level. The 200-day MA near 2,523,000 is far below, confirming the secular bull trend.

The Bollinger Bands show the upper band at approximately 3,121,000, the middle at 2,857,760, and the lower at 2,523,000. Price at 2,991,781 sits in the upper half — consistent with a market consolidating near highs rather than distributing for a decline.

06 Key Levels

07 News in Focus

Iran Blockade: Argentina’s Net Neutral

The Trump blockade on Iranian ports is the defining geopolitical event of the week, but Argentina’s exposure is mixed. YPF and Vaca Muerta producers benefit directly from $99 Brent — energy is the Merval’s biggest sector. But the broader economy faces inflationary pressure from higher fuel costs, and the BCRA’s crawling band system must accommodate the oil-driven peso pressure. Country risk held near 500 bps — the market is not repricing Argentina’s sovereign position on the Iran news. The Merval’s indifference is itself the signal: the 3M range reflects domestic equilibrium, not global macro.

BCRA Reserves: Soybean Season Begins

April is historically peak soybean export season, generating the largest agricultural dollar inflows of the year. Gross BCRA reserves climbed to their highest level under Milei earlier this year, and the central bank targets US$10 billion in purchases for 2026. A strong harvest would strengthen the reserve position, support the peso within the band, and provide ammunition for the January 2027 debt maturities. The gold rally above $4,700 also provides a mark-to-market boost to reserve valuations. As covered in our country risk analysis, reserve accumulation is the key metric for bond market access.

Labour Reform: Court Suspension Persists

The partial judicial suspension of ~40% of Milei’s labour reform articles continues to create uncertainty for companies adjusting hiring and firing practices. Despite Milei’s expanded congressional majority (~101 lower house seats), the judiciary remains a check on the reform agenda. The IMF’s semi-annual review will assess structural reform progress alongside fiscal and reserve benchmarks — the labour reform suspension could complicate compliance.

Wall Street Resilience — S&P 500 Erases War Losses

The S&P 500 rose 1.01% to 6,886 on Monday, now within 1.3% of its all-time high and back to positive for 2026. Trump’s comment that Iran “would like to make a deal very badly” provided late-session optimism. Goldman Sachs’ Q1 earnings beat on equities but missed on FICC. For the Merval, Wall Street’s resilience is supportive: Argentine ADRs (GGAL, BMA, YPF, PAM) trade in New York and respond to US risk appetite. A continued S&P rally toward ATH would provide a tailwind for the Merval’s eventual 3M breakout. As covered in our 3M recovery report, the dual listing dynamics amplify both gains and losses.

08 Looking Ahead

Tuesday: The ninth test of 3 million. The MACD’s expanding histogram favours an eventual breakout. A close above 3,032,000 (Monday’s high) would be the highest closing print since mid-March and confirm the breakout.

Oil: WTI fell 2.37% in early Tuesday trade as markets anticipate eventual Iran deal. Any headline progress would remove the oil uncertainty and let the Merval trade domestic fundamentals — which are constructive.

Soybean harvest: Peak April inflows support BCRA reserves. Watch for weekly reserve data updates — any acceleration above the US$10B annual target pace would be bullish for bonds and equities.

Country risk: A sustained break below 500 bps would signal market-access readiness and potentially unlock a Merval re-rating as the sovereign discount compresses.

This report was published by The Rio Times. For daily coverage of Latin American markets, read our Latin American Pulse and Brazil Morning Call.

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