IMF LATAM Growth Diverges as Hormuz Shock Dominates

The IMF Spring Meetings Latin America agenda opens in Washington on Tuesday with the Fund’s World Economic Outlook release and a corridor crowded with Latin American finance ministers carrying contradictory mandates: manage oil-shock inflation, preserve growth, and maintain fiscal discipline — all simultaneously. Bloomberg reports that delegates arrive with a sense of “déjà vu” as the Hormuz blockade reprises the supply disruptions of 2022.

The Rio Times, the Latin American financial news outlet, reports that two of the region’s most closely watched economies will have their finance chiefs in the same city this week. Brazil’s Dario Durigan arrives April 14-17 fresh from signing the Projeto MIT cooperation deal with US Customs. Argentina’s Luis Caputo heads to Washington after addressing the AmCham Summit in Buenos Aires today, where President Milei delivers the closing address.

Divergent Growth, Common Shock

The WEO projections paint a region growing at different speeds. Argentina is the standout at 3.6-4.0% — what the World Bank called “the principal upside exception,” crediting Milei’s stabilization reforms.

Brazil is projected at 1.6%, held back by tight monetary policy and fiscal constraints. Mexico trails at 1.3-1.5%, weighed down by US tariff uncertainty and slowing nearshoring momentum. For the region as a whole, the World Bank projected 2.1% growth — down from 2.5% in 2025 and “insufficient” to generate meaningful welfare improvements.

What Each Delegation Brings to Washington

Durigan arrives with the Ibovespa at record highs and the dollar below R$5 — but also with inflation breaching the target ceiling at 4.71% and a diesel crisis requiring Petrobras to sell fuel far below import parity.

Caputo carries a different narrative. Argentina’s 4% growth projection contrasts with a March CPI expected above 3% and an annual inflation forecast that has risen to 29.1%. The IMF is expected to approve a new disbursement for Ecuador by month-end, and the Fund’s assessment of Argentina’s program will inform whether additional support follows.

The Oil Variable

Brent above $100 reshapes every conversation in Washington. For Brazil, higher oil boosts Petrobras revenue but forces painful choices between consumer-price protection and fiscal costs. For Argentina, it hits imported fuel costs and complicates Milei’s disinflation timeline.

For Ecuador, oil helps fiscal revenue but pressures fuel subsidies in its dollarized economy. The ceasefire expires April 21 — one week from today. If diplomacy fails and Hormuz stays blocked, the WEO projections released this week may already be obsolete by the time finance ministers fly home.

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