Latin American Pulse for Saturday, April 18, 2026
Executive Summary
Latin American Pulse: Iran reopens Hormuz, Brent crashes 9%. Petrobras falls 7%, Ibovespa third straight loss. Peru dead heat at 93%.
Hormuz Reopened: Iran Declares Strait “Completely Open,” Brent Crashes 9% Below $90, WTI Hits $83 Intraday — Trump: “Deal Is Close,” Claims Iran Will Suspend Nuclear Programme and Ship 441kg Uranium to US — Tehran: “Nothing Is Certain Yet” — Petrobras Crashes ~7%, Ibovespa Falls Third Straight Session to 195,733 (−0.55%), but Real Strengthens to R$4.9787 — New Cycle Low, RSI 29 — Peru Dead Heat: ONPE 93.4%, Sánchez 12.00% vs López Aliaga 11.92%, Gap ~8,600 Votes, but 5,000+ Observed Actas Sent to JEE Could Take Two Weeks — Bolivia Five-Department Runoff Tomorrow, 3.42 Million Voters, OEA Deployed — Bitcoin Surges to $77,140, Strongest Since February — Gold ATH $4,879/oz
Executive Summary
The Big Picture: Today’s Latin American Pulse is dominated by a single geopolitical event that reverses the oil narrative that has shaped every LATAM market for seven weeks: Iran reopened the Strait of Hormuz on Friday. Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi declared the passage “completely open for all commercial vessels for the remaining ceasefire period.” Brent, which opened at $98.96, collapsed below $90 — a 9–10% single-session move — while WTI plunged to $83.03 intraday (−12%). The shock wave hit every oil-linked asset in the hemisphere instantaneously: Petrobras fell approximately 7%, dragging the Ibovespa to its third consecutive loss at 195,733.51 (−0.55%), even as Wall Street rose. But the Brazilian real told a different story entirely — it strengthened to R$4.9787, a new cycle low, with the RSI at 29 (deeply oversold). The currency market is saying what the equity market cannot yet process: Brazil’s structural attractiveness is independent of the daily oil price. Trump praised the reopening, claimed Iran has agreed to suspend its nuclear programme indefinitely and ship 441 kg of enriched uranium to the United States. An Iranian official told Reuters that “nothing is certain yet.” The US naval blockade of Iranian ports remains in force. The ceasefire expires April 21–22. This is part of The Rio Times‘ comprehensive coverage of Latin American financial markets and economic developments.
In Lima, the vote count has entered its endgame — but the endgame may last two more weeks. At 93.4% of actas processed, Roberto Sánchez holds 12.00% against López Aliaga’s 11.92%, a gap of approximately 8,600 votes. Only 515 regular actas remain to process. But over 5,000 “observed” (impugned) actas — roughly 6% of the total — must now be evaluated by the Jurados Electorales Especiales before being incorporated into the count. Electoral observation group Transparencia warns this process could extend the timeline by up to two weeks. The second-place race remains genuinely undecided: López Aliaga’s overseas-vote advantage continues to close the gap, while Sánchez’s rural-highland base has been largely counted. The institutional confrontation — fraud allegations, annulment petitions, calls for “insurgencia civil” — has become inseparable from the numerical one.
Tomorrow, Bolivia votes. Five departments — Santa Cruz, Beni, Tarija, Oruro, and Chuquisaca — hold gubernatorial runoffs, with 3.42 million citizens called to the polls. The OEA has deployed an observation team. Electoral silence has been in effect since Thursday midnight. The bellwether is Santa Cruz, where the opposition’s Juan Pablo Velasco (Libre) faces Otto Ritter (Santa Cruz para Todos), in a contest that will define whether President Rodrigo Paz’s Patria coalition can extend its reach into Bolivia’s economic heartland. Meanwhile, Bitcoin surged to $77,140 — its strongest level since February — on the global risk-on rotation triggered by the Hormuz reopening, while gold hit a new all-time high at $4,879.60 per ounce.
Risk Snapshot
| Country | Key Driver | Risk Level |
|---|---|---|
| Global / Oil | Hormuz reopened; Brent −9% below $90; WTI $83 intraday; Trump claims nuclear deal close; Iran: “nothing certain”; US blockade remains; ceasefire expires Apr 21–22 | DE-ESCALATING |
| Brazil | IBOV 195,733 (3rd fall, −0.55%); PETR4 −7%; but real R$4.9787 (new low, RSI 29); structural bid intact; Petrobras AGM resolved; cut-off Tue Apr 22 | BULLISH |
| Peru | ONPE 93.4%: Sánchez 12.00% vs RLA 11.92%; gap ~8,600; 515 actas left + 5,000+ observed → JEE (2 weeks); 22 annulment petitions; fraud rhetoric | CRITICAL |
| Bolivia | Five-dept runoffs TOMORROW; 3.42M voters; OEA deployed; Santa Cruz bellwether (Velasco vs Ritter); Patria in 4 others; silence in effect | WATCH |
Live Market IntelligenceLatin America — Cross-Market Board
Rio Times · Live Market Intelligence
Latin America — Cross-Market Board
-0.15%
173,107.90
-0.15%
66,125.27
-0.74%
10,963.36
+0.61%
3,294,537
+2.20%
2,319.30
+0.91%
56,620.35
—
| Instrument | Last | Change | YoY | Prev. | High | Low | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IBOV | 173,107.90 | -0.15% | +29.27% | 173,371.35 | 173,720 | 172,219 | — |
| IPSA | 10,963.36 | +0.61% | — | 10,896.87 | 10,986 | 10,808 | 1,513,213,483 |
| IPC MEX | 66,125.27 | -0.74% | +19.39% | 66,615.43 | 66,810 | 66,102 | 57,384,290 |
| MERVAL | 3,294,537 | +2.20% | +60.79% | 3,223,652 | 3,300,186 | 3,223,652 | — |
| COLCAP | 2,319.30 | +0.91% | — | 9.04 | 9.05 | 9.02 | 4,133 |
| BVL PERÚ | 56,620.35 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| USD/BRL | 5.07 | -0.38% | -9.10% | 5.09 | 5.09 | 5.07 | — |
| EUR/BRL | 5.78 | -1.28% | -10.82% | 5.85 | 5.82 | 5.78 | — |
| USD/MXN | 17.39 | -0.22% | -7.02% | 17.43 | 17.43 | 17.37 | — |
| USD/CLP | 933.93 | -0.06% | -3.06% | 934.50 | 935.02 | 929.17 | — |
| USD/COP | 3,223 | -1.39% | -19.81% | 3,269 | 3,255 | 3,218 | — |
| USD/PEN | 3.39 | +0.09% | -2.86% | 3.39 | 3.40 | 3.39 | — |
| USD/ARS | 1,478 | -0.27% | +15.91% | 1,482 | 1,481 | 1,470 | — |
| USD/UYU | 40.11 | +1.23% | +0.73% | 39.62 | 40.19 | 40.11 | — |
| USD/PYG | 6,045 | +1.76% | -20.83% | 5,940 | 6,045 | 6,031 | — |
| USD/BOB | 10.80 | +2.69% | +60.14% | 10.52 | 10.80 | 10.75 | — |
| USD/DOP | 58.02 | +0.31% | -2.91% | 57.84 | 58.31 | 58.00 | — |
| USD/CRC | 446.12 | +1.15% | -9.52% | 441.06 | 447.35 | 446.12 | — |
Hormuz Reopened: Iran Declares the Strait Open, Brent Crashes 9%, Trump Claims Nuclear Breakthrough — But the Blockade Remains
Fri Apr 17: Iran FM Abbas Araghchi via X: “The passage of all commercial vessels through the Strait of Hormuz has been declared completely open for the remaining ceasefire period”; Brent opened $98.96, collapsed below $90 (−9 to −10%); WTI hit $83.03 (−12% intraday); Trump on Truth Social: “THANK YOU!” + told Reuters Iran agreed to suspend nuclear programme indefinitely + ship 441kg enriched uranium to US; Iranian official to Reuters: “nothing is certain yet”; Guarda Revolucionária reaffirms “new order” — mined route, forced diversion through Iranian waters, cargo tolls, ban on foreign military vessels; US naval blockade of Iranian ports REMAINS active; Israel-Lebanon 10-day ceasefire started Thu 18:00 BRT (extends to Apr 26); France + UK announced joint plan with other countries to reopen Hormuz post-conflict; Germany may join; requires UN or EU mandate; Pakistan-mediated US-Iran talks expected this weekend; ceasefire expires Apr 21–22; Deutsche Bank: “resolution more likely than not in coming weeks”; without conflict, World Bank had projected Brent below $60 in 2026
What Happened
- —The reopening: Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi posted on X that all commercial vessel passage through the Strait of Hormuz “has been declared completely open for the remaining ceasefire period.” The safe route had previously been announced by Iran’s Ports and Maritime Organisation. The announcement coincided with optimism about Pakistan-mediated US-Iran talks expected this weekend and Thursday’s Israel-Lebanon 10-day ceasefire (extending to April 26). Trump immediately posted “THANK YOU!” and told Reuters he was confident in a deal, further claiming Iran had agreed to indefinitely suspend its nuclear programme and transfer its 441 kg of enriched uranium to the United States. An Iranian official, however, told the same news agency that “nothing is certain yet about the subject” — maintaining the asymmetry between Washington’s maximalist framing and Tehran’s cautious posture that has characterised every turn in this negotiation.
- —The oil shock in reverse: Brent opened Friday near $98.96, then collapsed in stages — first on Trump’s early morning optimism (6:00 BRT), then accelerating from 9:00 BRT with the Araghchi announcement. The benchmark fell below $90 for the first time in over a month, a single-session crash of 9–10%. WTI was even more violent, touching $83.03 intraday — a 12% collapse. The World Bank’s pre-conflict projection had been Brent below $60 in 2026; the war premium that took oil from $60 to $103 is now being partially unwound in a single day. France and the UK announced they are working with other countries on a post-conflict plan to permanently reopen Hormuz, potentially under UN or EU mandate, with Germany as a possible participant.
- —The caveat: The opening is conditional and temporary. Araghchi’s language — “for the remaining ceasefire period” — means the strait reverts to closure if the ceasefire expires without a deal on April 21–22. The Revolutionary Guard reaffirmed its “new order” for the strait: the traditional route has been mined, all traffic must pass through Iranian-controlled waters, cargo tolls are imposed, and all foreign military vessels are banned. The US naval blockade of Iranian ports remains fully active. This is not peace — it is a negotiating concession designed to build momentum toward the weekend talks in Pakistan. If those talks fail, the reopening reverses.
Why It Matters
For Latin America, the Hormuz reopening produces an immediate and asymmetric repricing. Oil importers — Chile, Central America, parts of the Caribbean — receive instant relief on fuel costs, current-account pressure, and inflation expectations. Oil exporters — Brazil, Colombia, Ecuador — lose the windfall revenue that funded fiscal resilience during the crisis but gain from the broader risk-on rotation and dollar weakness. Brazil’s position is uniquely balanced: Petrobras loses at the company level (hence −7%), but the real strengthens (R$4.9787) because lower oil reduces import inflation, makes the BCB’s easing path more credible, and increases the carry-trade attractiveness of a 14.75% Selic with diminishing inflation risk. BofA has already revised its Brent forecast to $93 for 2026 and $78 for 2027 — the market is now pricing a post-war oil curve, not a wartime one. The critical date remains April 21–22: if the ceasefire expires without extension or deal, everything reverses.
Key Watch
THIS WEEKEND: Pakistan-mediated US-Iran talks. Mon-Tue Apr 21–22: Ceasefire expiry — the pivot. Brent stabilisation level ($85? $90?). Iran Revolutionary Guard compliance with “open” declaration. US naval blockade status. France-UK Hormuz plan details. Israel-Lebanon ceasefire extension to Apr 26. Nuclear deal framework credibility.
OUTLOOK: DE-ESCALATING
Brazil: Ibovespa Falls Third Straight as Petrobras Crashes ~7% on Brent Collapse — But the Real Tells a Different Story at R$4.9787
IBOV: O196,880.51 H198,665.65 L195,367.90 C195,733.51 (−1,085.08, −0.55%); 3rd consecutive fall; opened +1% on Hormuz optimism then reversed as Petrobras collapsed — PETR4 ~−7%, PETR3 similar, Prio −2.90%; week closes −0.55% but month still positive, YTD still >20%; USD/BRL: O4.9912 H4.9940 L4.9521 C4.9787 (−0.0125, −0.25%); new cycle low; RSI 29.02–36.36 (deeply oversold — strongest signal since rally began); BofA revises Brent to $93 in 2026, $78 in 2027, long-term $75; Prisma survey: economists improve primary deficit projections for 2026–2027, reduce debt expectations; Petrobras dividend cut-off Tue Apr 22; ex-date Wed Apr 23; Copom Apr 28–29
What Happened
- —The session: The Ibovespa opened Friday nearly 1% higher on early Hormuz optimism, touching 198,665.65 intraday — flirting again with the 199,000 level last seen Tuesday. But as the Brent crash accelerated through the morning, Petrobras reversed violently: PETR4 fell approximately 7% and PETR3 similarly, with Prio losing 2.90%. The oil-junior complex was mixed (Brava +0.38%, Petrorecôncavo −1.17%), but Petrobras’s sheer index weight — it alone represents roughly 15% of the Ibovespa — dragged the index to a close of 195,733.51 (−0.55%). This is the third consecutive decline and the end of the three-week winning streak that produced 18 nominal records. The RSI at 64.52 is technically neutral — the pullback is healthy, not panicked.
- —The real’s verdict: While the equity market fell, the currency market moved in the opposite direction. USD/BRL closed at R$4.9787, down 0.25% — a new cycle low and the strongest the real has been since March 2024. The RSI at 29.02 is deeply oversold, meaning the real’s appreciation has been so aggressive and sustained that a technical bounce in USD/BRL is statistically likely. But the fundamental signal is clear: international capital is treating the Hormuz de-escalation as structurally positive for Brazil. Lower oil reduces import inflation, opens space for the BCB to ease sooner, and enhances the real-yield attractiveness of the 14.75% Selic. The real is pricing the end of the war premium, not the loss of the oil windfall. The Prisma survey, released Friday, reinforced this reading: economists consulted by the Ministry of Finance improved their primary deficit projections for 2026–2027 and reduced debt expectations.
Why It Matters
The equity-currency divergence is the most important signal in Brazilian markets today. The Ibovespa is mechanically reacting to Petrobras’s weight — when oil crashes, the index falls regardless of what the rest of the economy is doing. But the real is pricing fundamentals: lower inflation expectations, a more credible easing cycle, sustained foreign inflows, and a commercial surplus that remains positive even at $85–90 Brent (BTG’s US$90 billion projection was built at higher levels but Brazil’s agricultural exports are price-insensitive to oil). For investors, this divergence is an entry signal: the index is cheaper because of a composition effect (oil-weight drag), while the macro story (currency, rates, fiscal) is improving. Tuesday’s Petrobras dividend cut-off (Apr 22 — the same day the ceasefire expires) will test whether the post-AGM R$41.2 billion distribution can anchor Petrobras’s share price against the Brent repricing. The Copom meeting April 28–29 now enters with a fundamentally different oil backdrop than it had a week ago.
Key Watch
Tue Apr 22: Petrobras dividend cut-off + ceasefire expiry — dual catalyst. USD/BRL RSI 29 bounce risk. Copom Apr 28–29: Selic at 14.75% — does lower oil change the signal? Prisma deficit improvement. IBOV composition rebalancing vs macro improvement. Foreign flow response to lower Brent.
OUTLOOK: BULLISH
Peru: The Count Enters Its Final Phase — 515 Actas Left, but 5,000+ Observed Ballots Could Take Two Weeks to Resolve
ONPE at 93.359% (Fri Apr 17): Keiko Fujimori 17.057%, Roberto Sánchez 12.003% (1,884,660 votes at 93.23%), Rafael López Aliaga 11.922% (1,876,043 votes at 93.23%), Jorge Nieto 11.071%; gap Sánchez-to-RLA: ~8,617 votes (0.055 pp at 93.23%); only 515 regular actas pending; BUT 5,000+ “observed” actas (6% of total) must go to JEE for evaluation — Transparencia warns this could add two weeks; ONPE clarified boxes found in Surquillo street were NOT abandoned ballots; López Aliaga maintains fraud allegations, “insurgencia civil” rhetoric; 22+ annulment petitions filed; Sánchez: “new Constitution, greater state control over natural resources” (CNN en Español); ceasefire + primera vuelta + segunda vuelta = Peru in three simultaneous crises; segunda vuelta Jun 7; JNE official confirmation ~May 15
What Happened
- —The endgame mechanics: With 93.4% of actas processed, the ONPE count is approaching its mechanical limit — only 515 regular actas remain pending for processing. But the count is far from over. Over 5,000 actas — approximately 6% of the total — have been flagged as “observed” due to missing data, errors in form completion, or other irregularities. These must now be transferred to the Jurados Electorales Especiales for individual evaluation before their votes can be incorporated into the final tally. Electoral observation group Transparencia has warned that this process could extend the count by up to two weeks. The gap at the latest cut (93.23%) stands at approximately 8,617 votes: Sánchez at 1,884,660 (12.003%) versus López Aliaga at 1,876,043 (11.922%). CNN en Español has profiled Sánchez as a candidate who “has promised a new Constitution and greater state control over natural resources” — the Castillista programme distilled into two phrases.
- —The observed-acta wildcard: The 5,000+ observed actas are the largest remaining variable in the count — far more consequential than the 515 regular pending actas. Their geographic and demographic composition is unknown: if they skew Lima and urban (López Aliaga territory), they could close or reverse the gap. If they skew rural and southern (Sánchez territory), they could widen it. The JEE evaluation process is not automatic — each acta must be individually examined, which introduces both time delay and human judgment into what has been, until now, a largely mechanical counting process. ONPE was forced to clarify on Friday that ballot boxes found in a street in Surquillo (a Lima district) were not abandoned ballots — an incident that, while ultimately benign, fed the fraud narrative López Aliaga has been constructing since the count began to turn against him.
Why It Matters
Peru is now in a scenario where the arithmetic uncertainty (8,600-vote gap, 5,000+ observed actas) and the institutional uncertainty (annulment petitions, fraud rhetoric, “insurgencia civil” mobilisation) are feeding each other. Every day the count extends is a day in which López Aliaga’s delegitimisation campaign gains oxygen, the sol remains under pressure, and LATAM allocators must hold Peru at arm’s length. The 5,000+ observed actas introduce a new dimension: unlike the regular count, where geographic origin is known, the observed actas are scattered across the country and their resolution depends on JEE discretion — making the outcome genuinely unprojectable. For markets, the implication is clear: Peru’s political risk premium will not compress until the JNE officially confirms the segunda vuelta matchup, which is now unlikely before late April at the earliest, and may not come until mid-May.
Key Watch
5,000+ observed actas: JEE evaluation timeline and geographic composition. Gap trajectory as observed actas are resolved. López Aliaga mobilisation and legal strategy. Annulment petition JEE rulings. Sol and BVL reaction. JNE official timeline update. Jun 7 segunda vuelta framing. Surquillo-type incidents and fraud narrative.
RISK: CRITICAL
Bolivia: 3.42 Million Voters Go to the Polls Tomorrow — Five Departments, One Bellwether, and a Test of the Patria Coalition
Runoffs Sun Apr 19: Santa Cruz (Velasco/Libre vs Ritter/SC para Todos), Chuquisaca (Ayllón/Gente Nueva vs García/Patria-Unidos), Oruro (Sánchez/Jacha-Jakisa vs Chambi/Patria-Oruro), Tarija (Oliva/Patria vs Soruco/Camino Democrático), Beni (Vargas/MNR vs Egüez/Patria-Unidos); also: vicegobernador races in SC, Tarija, Beni; 3,420,440 registered voters; OEA observation team deployed (funded by Brazil, South Korea, Spain, US, France, Netherlands, Panama, Turkey); electoral silence since Thu midnight; material distribution to rural areas ongoing, urban delivery Saturday; La Paz dropped out (NGP personería cancelled by TSE); Potosí, Pando, Cochabamba resolved in first round (Mar 22)
What Happened
- —The setup: Bolivia’s five-department gubernatorial runoffs take place tomorrow, Sunday April 19, with 3.42 million citizens called to the polls. Electoral silence has been in force since midnight Thursday, and the Tribunales Electorales Departamentales are completing material distribution — rural areas were served first, with urban deliveries on Saturday. The OEA has deployed an observation team funded by an unusually broad international coalition. The marquee contest is Santa Cruz, Bolivia’s most populous department and economic engine, where Juan Pablo Velasco (Libre alliance) — the former vice-presidential candidate — faces Otto Ritter (Santa Cruz para Todos). In the remaining four departments, President Rodrigo Paz’s governing Patria alliance fields candidates: Adrián Oliva in Tarija, Franz García in Chuquisaca, Óscar Chambi in Oruro, and Tito Egüez in Beni. The first round (March 22) resolved Potosí (René Joaquino/Alianza Social), Pando (Gabriela de Paiva/Libre), and Cochabamba (Leonardo Loza/Evo-aligned). La Paz was removed after Nueva Generación Patriótica’s personería was cancelled by the TSE — leaving Luis Revilla (Patria) proclaimed without a runoff.
Why It Matters
Tomorrow’s runoffs will define whether Paz’s Patria coalition controls the governorship map or whether Bolivia returns to the familiar Occidente-vs-Media Luna political divide. If Patria sweeps its four departments but loses Santa Cruz to the opposition, the president retains legislative leverage but faces an autonomous economic base in the east. If Patria loses more than one additional department, the coalition’s national strength is in question — with implications for constitutional reform, lithium policy, and the IMF’s projected 3.3% contraction in 2026. Santa Cruz’s result will be the immediate market signal: the department produces approximately 35% of Bolivia’s GDP, and its gubernatorial alignment (or opposition) shapes everything from soy-export policy to infrastructure investment to the diplomatic relationship with Brazil.
Key Watch
TOMORROW Sun Apr 19: Voting day. Santa Cruz (Velasco vs Ritter) = bellwether. Patria performance across four departments. Participation rate. OEA observation report. Constitutional reform implications. IMF −3.3% contraction context. Evo-aligned forces positioning.
OUTLOOK: WATCH
Bitcoin Surges to $77,140 — Strongest Since February as Hormuz De-escalation Triggers Global Risk-On Rotation
BTC/USD: O77,107 H77,451 L76,926 C77,140 (+32, +0.04% on the daily candle, but +3.2% from Thu close $74,768); RSI 59.69–67.62 (bullish momentum, room to run before overbought); strongest level since February; intra-week rally from $74K to $77K+; Gold also hit new ATH at $4,879.60/oz; crypto up 12.3% and ETH +20.2% since war began; ETF inflows continue; “apolitical asset” narrative strengthening in geopolitical crisis
What Happened
- —The breakout: Bitcoin surged to $77,140 on Friday — its strongest level since early February — completing a 3.2% move from Thursday’s close of $74,768. The rally was powered by the confluence of Hormuz de-escalation (risk-on), continued spot Bitcoin ETF inflows (structural demand), and gold’s parallel move to a new all-time high at $4,879.60/oz (macro-hedge bid). The RSI at 59–67 indicates bullish momentum with room to run before entering overbought territory. Since the Middle East war began in late February, Bitcoin has risen 12.3% and Ethereum 20.2% — outperforming most traditional risk assets and reinforcing the “apolitical asset” narrative that crypto advocates have pushed since the conflict’s inception. For LATAM context, Bitcoin’s strength matters because Brazil is one of the world’s largest crypto markets by adoption, and the real’s simultaneous appreciation means Brazilian BTC holders are experiencing a double return: asset appreciation plus currency gains.
Key Watch
$78K resistance (Feb high). ETF flow trajectory. Gold-BTC correlation. Weekend Pakistan talks → risk-on/off signal for Monday. Regulatory developments (Brazil, Argentina). Mining energy costs post-Hormuz reopening.
OUTLOOK: BULLISH
Regional Snapshot
|
Chile & Colombia The S&P IPSA eased 0.42% to 11,429.19 on Friday, a modest giveback after Thursday’s 1.44% surge that took the index to its highest since February. The RSI at 59–68 suggests the rally still has legs despite the mild pullback. Chile is the clearest beneficiary of lower oil in LATAM — as a net energy importer, the Brent crash from $99 to below $90 provides immediate fiscal and consumer relief while copper strength continues to support the equity index. COLCAP, by contrast, fell sharply — down 1.33% to 2,301.86 — as the Brent collapse hit Ecopetrol hard. The RSI at 52–54 is neutral. The Ecuador trade war (100% tariffs, pipeline suspensions) remains unresolved. The IMF resumed relations with post-Maduro Venezuela under the Rodríguez government after 6+ years of suspension, with Kristalina Georgieva confirming dialogue has restarted. Previous Pulse editions. |
Argentina, Mexico & Region The MERVAL fell 1.19% to 2,889,185.31 — the sharpest daily decline in over a week — dragged by oil repricing and the ongoing Adorni investigation. The RSI at 50–59 is neutral. The Adorni congressional report (Apr 29) remains the next political catalyst, with Milei reportedly considering attending. Mexico’s IPC bucked the regional trend, rising 1.06% to 69,825.94 as the oil-importer trade worked in reverse: lower Brent benefits Mexican consumers and eases Pemex’s refinery-import costs. The peso continues to firm near 16.80–17.00 against the dollar. Brazil’s Anfavea projects farm-machinery sales of 46,700 units in 2026, down 6.2% from 2025, as the Iran war’s secondary effects — higher fertiliser and transport costs — weigh on agricultural profitability even as the primary oil impact begins to reverse. Gold’s new ATH at $4,879.60/oz benefits LATAM mining equities across Chile, Peru, Colombia, and Mexico. Previous Pulse editions. |
Markets at a Glance — Friday April 17 Close
| Index | Fri Close | Change | Context |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ibovespa | 195,733.51 | −0.55% | 3rd straight fall; PETR4 −7% on Brent crash; opened +1% then reversed; RSI 64 |
| USD/BRL | 4.9787 | −0.25% | NEW CYCLE LOW; RSI 29 (deeply oversold); strongest since Mar 2024; structural bid |
| IPSA (Chile) | 11,429.19 | −0.42% | Mild giveback after Thu +1.44%; oil-importer benefit; RSI 59–68; copper supportive |
| COLCAP | 2,301.86 | −1.33% | Ecopetrol hit hard by Brent crash; RSI 52–54; IMF-Venezuela dialogue resumed |
| IPC (Mexico) | 69,825.94 | +1.06% | Oil-importer trade works in reverse; peso firm; RSI 54–56; AMIB YE 72,427 |
| MERVAL | 2,889,185.31 | −1.19% | Oil drag + Adorni; sharpest daily drop in >1 week; RSI 50–59; Apr 29 congressional |
| BTC/USD | 77,140 | +3.2%* | Strongest since Feb; risk-on + ETF inflows; RSI 59–67; Gold ATH $4,879/oz |
*BTC daily candle shows +0.04% (O77,107 C77,140) but the move from Thu close 74,768 to Fri close 77,140 = +3.2%. All equity, FX, and crypto data from TradingView Tier 0 charts timestamped Apr 18, 07:03–07:12 UTC (riotimesonline account) — reflecting Friday April 17 closes. Brent from ICE via Money Times/Jornal de Brasília/ClubPetro/Folha. Brazil from Money Times/Exame/InfoMoney/ADVFN/Portal Tela/DivulgarDinheiro. Peru from ONPE/RPP/La República/Infobae/Gestión/El Comercio/CNN en Español. Bolivia from ABI/eju.tv/Infobae/ABC Color/Bolivia.com. Argentina from APFDigital/El Cronista. Mexico from Investing.com. Chile from Diario Financiero. Colombia from Semana. IMF/Venezuela from InfoMoney. Crypto from Fortune/CoinDesk. Previous Pulse editions.
The Week Ahead
| Date | Event | Country |
|---|---|---|
| THIS WKND | US-Iran Pakistan-mediated talks; Bolivia runoffs Sunday Apr 19 | Global / Bolivia |
| Mon Apr 20 | Adorni witness testimony (Rucci + Trimarchi); Mello’s first Petrobras board meeting | Argentina / Brazil |
| Tue Apr 22 | CEASEFIRE EXPIRES (US-Iran, Apr 21–22); Petrobras dividend cut-off (B3); Ley Hojarasca vote Argentina | Global / Brazil / Arg |
| Wed Apr 23 | Petrobras ex-dividend date (B3) | Brazil |
| Sat Apr 26 | Israel-Lebanon ceasefire expiry | Global |
| Mon-Tue Apr 28–29 | COPOM Selic decision (14.75%); Adorni congressional report Apr 29 (Milei attendance?) | Brazil / Argentina |
| ~May 15 | Peru: JNE official segunda vuelta confirmation — likely delayed by 5,000+ observed actas | Peru |