Latin American Pulse for Monday, May 11, 2026

Argentina Súper RIGI Bill to Congress TODAY: 15% Corporate Tax, 60% Year-One Depreciation, Zero Export Tariffs, US$140B Pipeline + Chevron US$10B Vaca Muerta — Caputo Opens Governors Negotiation — Petrobras Q1 Results TODAY After B3 Close — Safra Estimates EBITDA US$14.2B / Dividends US$2.7B / Production 3.225M Boepd Record — Brazil Anti-Crime Plan Launches This Week + Brazil-US Tariff Clock Starts — Bolivia: Paz Announces Constitutional Reform Commission + 10-Law Package at Cochabamba Gran Encuentro — La Paz Dialogue Today 08:00 — Kelequelera + Tajlihui Bloqueos Persist, 405 Peruvian Tourists Stranded — Magisterio Joins Today — Chile Kast Plan Reconstrucción Hits Headwind: CFA Negative Fiscal Verdict, PDG Withdraws Support — Flávio Bolsonaro 46-45 Over Lula in Latest Runoff Simulation

Iran Counter-Proposal Rejected: Trump Calls Text “Totally Unacceptable,” Brent $104.50, Beijing Visit Is the Deadline

Dom May 10 Iran submitió counter-proposal vía Pakistan al US 14-point peace framework — texto demanda: (1) reconocimiento soberanía iraní Estrecho de Ormuz, (2) US reparaciones de guerra a Irán, (3) levantamiento TODAS sanciones, (4) liberación assets congelados, (5) fin combates TODOS frentes incluido Líbano; texto NO aborda programa nuclear iraní; Trump: counter-propuesta “totally unacceptable”; transmitida vía broadcaster IRIB temprano lunes per CNN + Reuters; Mike Waltz (US Ambassador UN) Fox News Sunday: US planteó “very clear red line”; Brent +3.17% a $104.50/bbl (de $101.26 vie) — mayor sesión alcista desde abril 28; WTI +3.21% a $98.48 (de $95.42 vie); Netanyahu CBS: “I think that it’s time that we weaned ourselves from the remaining military support” — quiere reducir US military aid de $3.8B/año a $0 — detaches Israel autonomy del timeline Trump; Netanyahu llamó Trump domingo noche mientras Irán enviaba respuesta; UAE Defense Ministry vie: air defenses interceptaron 2 ballistic missiles + 3 drones desde Irán; CENTCOM vie: US disparó contra 2 empty Iranian oil tankers tratando evadir naval blockade Gulf of Oman — “blockade against ships entering or leaving Iranian ports remains fully in effect”; Trump → Beijing May 14-15 con Xi Jinping — David Saphiro ex-US ambassador Israel: “What’s behind the move to end the war this week on these terms, which are far below the original war objectives? China. Specifically, Trump’s upcoming visit to Beijing May 14-15”; Jeff Currie Carlyle: US oil storage tanks puede correr empty ~July 4; Goldman: Brent stay >$90 to end-year; AAA US gas $4.52/gal; Iran FM Araqchi Beijing martes pasado pre-counter-proposal; Iran 14-point original draft included nuclear-enrichment moratorium + sanctions lift + frozen-assets release pero NO incluía Hormuz sovereignty ni reparaciones; Iran ahora pide los 3 anteriores + 2 nuevos (sovereignty + reparations) + Lebanon front + ya no nuclear moratorium

What Happened

• —The text: Iran’s Foreign Ministry submitted its formal counter-proposal to the US 14-point peace framework via Pakistan on Sunday evening May 10. The text — first reported by the state broadcaster IRIB and confirmed by Reuters on Monday — demands recognition of Iranian sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz, payment of US war reparations for damages sustained during the conflict, the lifting of all US sanctions, the release of frozen Iranian assets in foreign accounts, and an end to fighting on all fronts including the Lebanon front. Critically, the text does not address Iran’s nuclear programme, a central US demand. The original US framework — reported by Axios on May 6 — had been a one-page, 14-point memorandum of understanding that would have committed Iran to a moratorium on nuclear enrichment in exchange for sanctions relief and the gradual reopening of the strait. Tehran has now removed the nuclear concession and added two new demands of its own.
• —Trump’s response and the Netanyahu wrinkle: President Trump dismissed the Iranian counter-proposal as “totally unacceptable.” US Ambassador to the UN Mike Waltz told Fox News Sunday that the US had laid out a “very clear red line” in its original proposal. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu used a parallel CBS interview to say he wants to reduce US military aid to Israel “to zero” — currently US$3.8 billion per year — adding “I think that it’s time that we weaned ourselves from the remaining military support.” Netanyahu then called President Trump Sunday evening as the Iranian text was being submitted. The move detaches Israeli operational autonomy from the Trump-set deadline and complicates any de-escalation track.
• —The market reaction and the Beijing clock: Brent crude rose 3.17% to US$104.50 per barrel on Sunday and West Texas Intermediate rose 3.21% to US$98.48, reversing most of the deal-optimism declines from the prior week per CNN and CNBC. The UAE Defence Ministry confirmed Friday that its air defences engaged two ballistic missiles and three drones launched from Iran. US Central Command fired on two empty Iranian oil tankers attempting to evade the US naval blockade in the Gulf of Oman, with CENTCOM emphasising that “the blockade against ships entering or leaving Iranian ports remains fully in effect.” President Trump’s previously scheduled Beijing visit on May 14-15 with President Xi Jinping is now the de facto next deadline before further military escalation. David Saphiro, former US Ambassador to Israel, summarised the calendar logic: What’s behind the move to end the war this week on these terms, which are far below the original war objectives? China. Specifically, Trump’s upcoming visit to Beijing May 14-15. Carlyle Group analyst Jeff Currie has warned that US oil storage tanks could run empty around July 4. Goldman Sachs expects Brent to remain above US$90 through the end of the year. Background: Lula-Trump May 7 White House framework.

RISK: CRITICAL

Argentina Súper RIGI Bill to Congress Today: 15% Corporate Tax, US$140B Pipeline, Governors Negotiation Opens

Lun May 11: Súper RIGI bill ingresa Congreso hoy — Caputo + equipo económico finalizó texto fin de semana; abre simultáneamente negociaciones gobernadores; estrategia legislativa atada próxima mesa política — todavía no definido si Diputados o Senado; Cnf Adorni vie May 8 + Caputo + Min Seguridad Monteoliva Casa Rosada; Ganancias 25%→15%; amortización 60% año 1, 20% año 2, 20% año 3 (vs RIGI 40% en 2 primeros años); cero export tariffs día 1 (vs 3 años o 2 estratégicos); cero import tariffs TODO insumo producción (vs solo bienes capital RIGI actual con “zonas grises”); provincias adheridas Ingresos Brutos cap 0.5%; municipios prohibidos cobrar tasas ventas; sectores: refinamiento + laminado cobre, baterías litio, autos eléctricos, paneles solares, turbinas eólicas, fertilizantes K+P, uranio, datacenters, agro-forestación, pesca; Caputo: “Argentina será una potencia minera”; “USD 20-30 mil millones por proyecto”; “USD 140.000 millones en próximas semanas”; “vamos a estar cobrando impuestos que hoy no se cobran”; Chevron Vaca Muerta US$10B “muy pronto se sumará” (Caputo X post Mie May 6 post Chevron CFO Eimar Bonner + Laura Lane meeting); Mercedes-Benz Zárate plant inaugurada vie = US$110M, 2,500 empleos, 1ra automotriz nueva 15 años; RIGI actual pipeline: 36 proyectos = US$95B + 13 confirmados US$18.351M en 8 provincias (YPF Luz Mendoza US$211M, VMOS US$2.486B Allen-Punta Colorada Río Negro, GNL PAE-Golar US$6.878B Golfo San Matías 2027, Río Tinto US$2.7B Salar Rincón Salta); INDEC industrial production +5.0% YoY March (vs prior −8.6%) — major reversal; April CPI Mie May 14 — binary disinflation thesis; Milei desde avión presidencial Mie May 7 X post: “Dado que no podemos comprarnos un B2 Spirit no me queda otra que lanzar una MEGA BOMBA desde el avión presidencial”; Milei en Milken Conference 29 California: “Argentina vuelve raíces liberales, sueño americano de Alaska a Tierra del Fuego”; Cavallo-Caputo feud previo continúa; monto mínimo inversión no definido aún — se afinará pre-Congreso

What Happened

• —The bill goes to Congress: The Argentine government submits the Súper RIGI bill to Congress on Monday May 11 following the press conference held on Friday May 8 by Economy Minister Luis Caputo, Chief of Staff Manuel Adorni, and Security Minister Alejandra Monteoliva at the presidential palace. The Caputo economic team finalised the text over the weekend, with the chamber of entry — lower house or senate — still being defined as part of the legislative strategy at the next political-cabinet meeting. The government has opened simultaneous negotiations with provincial governors to lock in the adhesion-clause architecture before the floor vote.
• —The regime, in summary: The Súper RIGI cuts the corporate income tax rate from the 25% set under the existing RIGI to 15%, and reshapes the depreciation schedule with 60% deductible in the first year and 20% in each of the second and third years — a significantly accelerated profile compared to the existing RIGI’s 40% over the first two years. Export tariffs are eliminated from day one of operations, against three years (or two for strategic long-cycle exports) under the original RIGI. Import tariffs on all production-related inputs are eliminated — closing the interpretive grey zones that the existing RIGI’s capital-goods-only exemption created. Adhering provinces face a 0.5% cap on the gross-receipts tax (Ingresos Brutos) and municipalities are prohibited from levying taxes on sales. Targeted sectors include copper refining and laminating, lithium-battery production, electric vehicle manufacturing, solar panels, wind turbines, potassium and phosphorus fertilisers, the uranium value chain, datacenters, and verticals in fishing, agriculture, and forestry. The minimum-investment threshold has not yet been disclosed and will be set immediately before the bill enters parliament.
• —Chevron, Mercedes-Benz, and the macro tailwind: Caputo told reporters that “investment requests under this regime will probably approach US$140 billion in the coming weeks” and that “a single project under the Súper RIGI could be US$20 to US$30 billion in scale.” Adorni confirmed a Chevron Vaca Muerta project worth “another US$10 billion” would shortly join the existing RIGI pipeline of 36 projects worth US$95 billion. The Mercedes-Benz industrial centre in Zárate inaugurated on Friday morning represents US$110 million and 2,500 jobs — the first automotive plant built from scratch in Argentina in 15 years. Argentine industrial production surged 5.0% year-on-year in March per INDEC — a major reversal from the prior −8.6% reading — providing the macro tailwind. April CPI is the next domestic binary on Wednesday May 14, the final domestic datapoint before the next BCRA reserve-accumulation review. Background: Cavallo-Milei FX feud.

OUTLOOK: BULLISH

Petrobras Q1 Results After B3 Close Today: Safra Sees US$14.2B EBITDA, US$2.7B Dividends, 3.225M Boepd Production Record

Lun May 11 después B3 close: Petrobras (B3:PETR4 / NYSE:PBR) reporta Q1 2026 resultados — webcast martes May 12 English/Portuguese; Safra estima EBITDA ajustado consolidado US$14.2B (+30% QoQ), margen 54%, lucro líquido US$6B, dividendos ordinarios US$2.7B = quarterly dividend yield 2.1%; BTG estima EBITDA ~US$13B, dividendos ~US$2.1B = yield 1.5%; production Q1 record 3.225M boepd (+4% QoQ, +16% YoY) — pre-sal liderazgo + Nova Piratininga thermoelectric early operation; Brent stayed range $95-105 trimestre tras Hormuz closure Feb 28; Q4 2025 lucro R$15.6B revirtió prejuízo año anterior; Petrobras pagou R$41.2B dividendos 2025 em duas parcelas — 1ra 20 maio @ R$0.32626409/ação ON+PN, 2da 22 junho @ R$0.32626409 — JCP forma; ADR holders pagamento 28 mai + 29 jun NYSE; ex-dividend B3 22 abril 2026; total per share R$0.65252818 (atualizado até record date); LRCAP 2026 — Petrobras contratou 9 plantas termoeléctricas =~2.6 GW potência firme SIN 2026-2031; ratio P/L 5.34, P/VP 1.42, dividend yield 12m 6.90%; receita 12m R$497.55B, lucro 12m R$110.61B; mkt cap próximo R$430B; Itaú/Vale/Embraer reportarán nesta semana; Brent $104.50 dom — geopol risk re-pricing puxa Petrobras + dividend story

What Happened

• —The report: Petróleo Brasileiro SA (B3: PETR4 / NYSE: PBR) reports its first-quarter 2026 financial statements today after the close of the B3 trading session, with the investor webcast scheduled for Tuesday May 12 in English and Portuguese. Banco Safra equity research estimates adjusted consolidated EBITDA at US$14.2 billion, up 30% quarter-on-quarter with a 54% margin, alongside net income of US$6 billion (slightly 3% below consensus, likely reflecting non-operational, financial, or tax items) and ordinary dividends of US$2.7 billion implying a quarterly dividend yield of 2.1%. BTG Pactual estimates EBITDA at approximately US$13 billion and dividends at US$2.1 billion implying a 1.5% yield. Petrobras production in the quarter hit a record 3.225 million barrels of oil equivalent per day, up 4% quarter-on-quarter and 16% year-on-year, driven by the pre-salt fields and the earlier-than-expected operation of the Nova Piratininga thermoelectric facility. The Brent average for the quarter sat in the US$95 to US$105 range following the late-February Strait of Hormuz closure, supporting cash generation across the upstream segment.
• —The dividend cycle and the geopolitical pull: Petrobras already paid R$41.2 billion in dividends for the 2025 financial year in two tranches — the first on May 20 and the second on June 22 — at R$0.65252818 per outstanding common and preferred share, in the form of interest on own capital. ADR holders on the NYSE receive their payments on May 28 and June 29. The trailing-twelve-month dividend yield stands at 6.90% on a P/E of 5.34 and a P/B of 1.42, on revenue of R$497.55 billion and net income of R$110.61 billion. In the LRCAP 2026 thermoelectric capacity-reserve auction, Petrobras contracted nine plants totalling approximately 2.6 GW of firm power for the National Interconnected System for the period 2026-2031 — an institutional anchor for the cash-generation thesis. The 3.17% Brent move to US$104.50 on Sunday is the immediate geopolitical pull on the PETR4 print. Itaú, Vale, and Embraer also report Q1 results this week.

OUTLOOK: BULLISH

Brazil Anti-Crime Plan Launches This Week + Tariff Clock Starts — R$30B Brasil Soberano + US-BR Joint Asfixia Financeira Track

Semana May 11-15: Brazil lança plano integral contra organizações criminosas — Lula return Brasília vie May 8 madrugada post-Trump 3hr Washington meeting Thu May 7; equipos Receita Federal + US counterparts conducirán operações conjuntas anti-arms + synthetic-drug trafficking ambas direções — track de asfixia financeira agreed direto Lula-Trump; PF Brasil apreendeu >0.5 ton US-origin arms entre maio 2025-abril 2026 — leverage Durigan emphasized; PCC + CV foreign terrorist designation tracking — Lei Antifacção pushback Andrei Rodrigues PF; sem MoU minerais críticos (oficiais Lula a Reuters: no acuerdo MoU básico mesmo); 30-day Brazil-US tariff working-group clock starts hoje (lun May 11) → corre hasta sáb Jun 6; Trump posted Truth Social: “Nuestros representantes têm reuniões agendadas”; Plano Brasil Soberano = Medida Provisória R$30B financiamento exportadores afetados tarifaço — Haddad: “alavancar investimentos, readequações ou busca de novos mercados”; “12% nossas exportações vão para EUA, contra 25% começo do século”; EUA superávit 15 anos US$410B vs Brasil; tariffs 50% mid-2025 aliviadas 10% global + product exclusions pós-SCOTUS feb 2026 ruling; Seção 301 final report julho 2026 — Pix, etanol, deforestación; Lula entregou Trump lista oficiais brasileiros + familiares visa restriction inc STF justices + Procurador General Gonet + filha 10 anos Min Saúde Padilha; Trump told Lula: sin planes invasão Cuba; Brasil reserva 21M ton terras raras (24.7% global), 94% niobium, só 25% território mapeado; PNMCE aprovada Cámara May 6; Trump posted no Truth Social: “very dynamic president of Brazil”; Lula: “Brasil tá pronto para discutir com qualquer país do mundo, qualquer assunto. Não tem assunto proibido. A única coisa que não abrimos mão é da democracia e soberania”; Itamaraty ultra-profissional; Lula próxima Indonésia + acordo UE; Política Nacional Minerais Críticos+Estratégicos = council to define quais minerals qualify as critical

What Happened

• —The anti-crime plan: The Brazilian government launches its comprehensive plan against transnational criminal organisations during the week beginning today, following President Lula’s three-hour White House meeting with President Trump on Thursday May 7. The plan establishes a US-Brazil joint financial-asphyxiation track agreed directly between the two presidents. Finance Minister Dario Durigan said Brazil’s federal tax authority and US counterparts will conduct joint operations against arms smuggling and synthetic-drug trafficking flowing in both directions — the most concrete deliverable of the visit. The Brazilian Federal Police seized more than half a tonne of US-origin firearms in Brazil between May 2025 and April 2026, a leverage point that Durigan has consistently emphasised in negotiations. The US is separately studying the designation of Brazilian criminal factions Comando Vermelho and Primeiro Comando da Capital as foreign terrorist organisations, a designation that the Federal Police director and most independent specialists consider a sovereignty risk and operationally counter-productive, given the 20-to-40-year sentencing framework Brazil enacted in March under the Anti-Faction Law.
• —The tariff clock and Brasil Soberano: The 30-day Brazil-US tariff working-group clock established at the White House meeting starts ticking today and runs to Saturday June 6, 2026. The 50% tariff package Trump imposed in mid-2025 has already been substantially loosened to a 10% global rate with product exclusions following the US Supreme Court’s February ruling against the IEEPA basis. The Plano Brasil Soberano — a Provisional Measure providing R$30 billion in financing to support Brazilian exporters affected by the tariffs — remains in force as the transition vehicle. Finance Minister Haddad framed the structure: “We created, in record time, the Plano Brasil Soberano with R$30 billion to leverage investment, restructuring, or the search for new markets by the most affected companies.” Haddad noted that “12% of our exports go to the United States, against 25% at the start of the century” and that the US has accumulated approximately US$410 billion in trade surplus with Brazil over the last 15 years. The Section 301 final report on Pix, ethanol, and deforestation remains due in July 2026.
• —Minerals, the visa list, and Cuba: No memorandum of understanding on critical minerals was reached at the White House meeting, with sources close to President Lula telling Reuters the two sides could not agree on even a basic framework. The Brazilian lower house had approved the National Critical and Strategic Minerals Policy on May 6, creating a council to define which minerals qualify as critical and strategic. Brazil holds an estimated 21 million tonnes of rare-earth reserves (24.7% of global) and 94% of niobium reserves, with only 25% of national territory geologically mapped. Lula said Brazil is “willing to share its mineral wealth with whoever wants to invest in the country.” On Cuba, Lula said Trump told him directly there are “no plans” for a US invasion. Lula handed Trump a list of Brazilian officials and family members still under US visa restrictions including Supreme Court justices, Prosecutor-General Paulo Gonet, and the 10-year-old daughter of Health Minister Alexandre Padilha. Background: Lula and Trump set 30-day deadline.

OUTLOOK: BULLISH

Bolivia: Paz Announces Constitutional Reform Commission + 10-Law Package, La Paz Dialogue Today at 08:00

Sáb May 9 Cochabamba: Paz inauguró “Gran Encuentro Nacional por la Estabilidad y el Progreso de la Patria” — anunció Comisión de la Reforma de la Constitución abierta + paquete 10 leyes (algunas 15 según Tribuno) sectores hidrocarburos, electricidad, minería, inversiones, economía verde, seguridad, emprendedores, ley electoral, reforma justicia, ley seguridad nacional; 600 participantes incl ex-presidente Jorge Tuto Quiroga, 6/9 gobernadores, alcaldes, empresariales, sociales; Paz: “Bolivia atraviesa crisis económica e institucional que exige consensos amplios”; “Necesitamos acuerdos para recuperar estabilidad, ordenar economía, reconstruir institucionalidad”; “fractura social, política y moral”; alerta sobre “sicariato antidemocrático” que busca “generar ruptura democrática”; Paz: “El bloqueo se volvió una lógica en Bolivia y eso debemos superarlo”; “se acabó la hegemonía de un solo partido”, “se acabaron los pactos a espaldas del país”; “Estado quebrado en todos niveles, también en lo moral”; “¿Por qué en Bolivia queremos ser pobres?”; 50/50 redistribución fiscal central vs regiones → PGE 2027; Paz pidió considerar “acuerdos de libre comercio” con cláusulas protección inversiones + apertura mientras se concreta reforma constitucional; pidió “seguridad jurídica necesaria para que Bolivia avance”; Constitución actual otorga al Estado derechos propietarios recursos naturales + control estatal hidrocarburos, minería, electricidad — Paz quiere modificar; Tuto Quiroga acompañó; Cochabamba “no es un gesto simbólico” — “marcará el futuro”; Paz cumple 6 meses gestión vie May 8; HOY lun 11 08:00 Casa Grande del Pueblo — Min Gobierno Marco Antonio Oviedo convoca alcaldes, concejales La Paz + CSUTCB + federación campesinos La Paz — continuidad Cochabamba; vocero presidencial José Luis Gálvez Bolivia TV; agenda: necesidades departamento, infraestructura, exploración hidrocarburos norte La Paz, yacimiento petrolero Mayaya; gobernadora Pando Gabriela de Paiva: “departamento sigue siendo uno de los más aislados”

What Happened

• —The Cochabamba framework: President Rodrigo Paz inaugurated the “Gran Encuentro Nacional por la Estabilidad y el Progreso de la Patria” — the great national meeting for stability and the progress of the homeland — in Cochabamba on Saturday May 9, announcing the creation of an open commission for the partial reform of the Bolivian Constitution and a package of ten new draft laws covering hydrocarbons, electricity, mining, investment, green economy, security, entrepreneurship, electoral law, judicial reform, and national security. The event brought together approximately 600 participants including former president Jorge “Tuto” Quiroga (2001-2002), six of nine regional governors, mayors, councillors, and representatives of business and social organisations. Paz described Bolivia as facing “an economic and institutional crisis that demands broad consensus” and a “social, political, and moral fracture” that has weakened institutions. He called for “agreements that allow us to recover stability, organise the economy and rebuild institutionality” and characterised the blockade culture as “a logic that took root in Bolivia and that we must overcome by working among all.” Paz also alerted to a “sicariato antidemocrático” — an anti-democratic hit-job — that “seeks to generate a democratic rupture” to block transformation. Background: Bolivia blockades, Túpac Katari and the Paz fuel crisis.
• —The constitutional and fiscal pivot: Paz committed to a 50/50 fiscal redistribution between the central level and the regions starting with the 2027 General Budget — a structural answer to the long-running gobernador demand for resource decentralisation. He asked the government to “consider” the signing of “free-trade agreements with investment-protection and openness clauses” to elevate “the legal certainty necessary for Bolivia to advance” while the constitutional reform progresses. The current Bolivian Constitution grants the State ownership of natural resources and establishes State control over strategic sectors including hydrocarbons, mining, and electricity — the precise architecture Paz seeks to modify through the partial reform. The day also marked President Paz’s six-month anniversary in office.
• —La Paz dialogue today: The government convened a follow-up meeting for Monday May 11 at 08:00 at the government palace, presided by Interior Minister Marco Antonio Oviedo and bringing together mayors, councillors, and representatives of La Paz department provinces and the CSUTCB peasant confederation. Presidential spokesperson José Luis Gálvez told Bolivia TV the agenda will cover “the needs of the department in terms of infrastructure and productive development projects, plus investment for the exploration and exploitation of hydrocarbons in the north of the region” — including the Mayaya oilfield project. Similar meetings will be replicated across the other departments in the coming days. Pando governor Gabriela de Paiva reminded the Cochabamba meeting that her department “continues to be one of the most isolated in the country” after more than a decade of waiting for road integration — the kind of regional pressure that the 50/50 fiscal pivot is intended to absorb.

OUTLOOK: WATCH

Bolivia: Kelequelera + Tajlihui Blockades Persist, 405 Peruvian Tourists Stranded, Magisterio Joins Strike Today

Dom May 10 → Lun May 11: ABC reportes — bloqueos persisten Kelequelera + Tajlihui sobre carretera a provincia Larecaja y norte La Paz pese acuerdo Caranavi; Blanca Luz Astorga presidenta Comité Bloqueo Kelequelera/Villa Aroma: protesta continuará — demandas regionales aún no atendidas; Alex Paricahua dirigente interculturales La Paz rechazó acuerdo Caranavi: “No tenemos conocimiento ni mucho menos hemos participado del diálogo” — anuncia ampliado emergencia nuevas medidas; Caranavi acuerdo (sáb) Min Gobierno Marco Antonio Oviedo + YPFB + ANH + ABC + dirigentes interculturales, transporte, gremiales, Federación Norte Amazónico — habilitará lun May 11 oficina YPFB Caranavi recibe trámites resarcimiento económico motorizados — “acuerdos relevantes combustibles, resarcimiento daños, mantenimiento carreteras”; Cancillería Perú: 405 peruanos varados em puntos Bolivia — coordina Min Defensa boliviana evacuación La Paz + Oruro → Juliaca región Puno; Min Turismo Bolivia: “se calculan pérdidas de hasta 20 millones de bolivianos por día” (~$2.8M) para área turística + afectaciones imagen; bloqueos comienzan afectar provisión alimentos a La Paz; magisterio paro May 11 (HOY) — maestros joinieren ciclo conflictual; COB no reconoce Min Trabajo Edgar Morales — cierra puertas salida concertada corto plazo; Vicente Salazar (Túpac Katari): “la población está cansada de promesas”; demanda unificadora: renuncia Paz; choferes confederation lifted measures post-acuerdo Lucio Gómez + Min Zamora — pero amenazan reabrir si no cumple gobierno; Pueblo Soberano Costa Rica concierto Fernández cierre = paralelismo regional pero estabilidad opuesta

What Happened

• —The unresolved arcs: Bolivia’s state highway agency confirmed Sunday that blockades persist in Kelequelera and Tajlihui on the route to Larecaja province and the north of La Paz department, despite Saturday’s broader Caranavi agreement. Blanca Luz Astorga, president of the Kelequelera-Villa Aroma blockade committee, told reporters the protest will continue because regional demands have not been addressed. Alex Paricahua, the departmental leader of the intercultural movement in La Paz, rejected the Caranavi agreement outright: “We have no knowledge nor have we participated in the dialogue.” He announced an emergency expanded meeting to define new measures.
• —The Caranavi resolution and what it covers: The Saturday agreement between Interior Minister Marco Antonio Oviedo, the state oil company YPFB, the regulator ANH, the highway agency, and representatives of the intercultural movement, transport, gremial workers, and the North Amazonian Federation produced what the Interior Ministry described as “relevant agreements relating to fuel supply, compensation for damages, and road maintenance.” The executive will open a YPFB office in Caranavi from today Monday May 11 to receive economic-compensation applications for damaged vehicles. The truckers’ confederation has lifted its measures after Lucio Gómez signed the earlier deal with Public Works Minister Mauricio Zamora at the government palace — but Gómez has warned the truckers will return to the streets if commitments are not honoured.
• —Stranded tourists, food supply, and the teachers’ strike: The Peruvian Foreign Ministry confirmed that 405 Peruvian nationals remain stranded inside Bolivia and is coordinating with the Bolivian Defence Ministry for an evacuation from La Paz and Oruro through Juliaca in the Peruvian region of Puno. The Bolivian Tourism Ministry estimates losses of up to 20 million Bolivianos per day — approximately US$2.8 million — for the tourism sector, “in addition to the impact on the country’s image” the ministry said. The blockades have also begun to affect the supply of certain foods reaching La Paz from other regions. Bolivia’s teachers’ federation begins its own strike today Monday May 11 — a new vector joining the cycle that the Cochabamba meeting was designed to absorb. The Central Obrera Boliviana continues to refuse to recognise Labour Minister Edgar Morales, closing what Telesur described as “any short-term concerted solution.” Túpac Katari leader Vicente Salazar maintains the demand for the immediate resignation of President Paz.

RISK: CRITICAL

Chile: Kast Plan Reconstrucción Nacional Hits Congress Headwind — CFA “Negative Net Fiscal Impact,” PDG Withdraws Support

Vie May 8 Cámara Diputados: Consejo Fiscal Autónomo (CFA) compareció — Paula Benavides (presidenta CFA): plan “genera un impacto fiscal neto negativo”; “un riesgo transversal que vemos en el proyecto es un descalce entre costos y beneficios fiscales”; “esta incertidumbre es asimétrica: los costos son más ciertos y predecibles, mientras los beneficios son inciertos, graduales y condicionales”; “No es lo mismo equivocarse hacia un lado que hacia el otro respecto de la sostenibilidad”; Plan Reconstrucción Nacional = 40 medidas, hits Congreso April 2026, primer Cadena Nacional Kast Apr 16; Partido de la Gente (PDG) 12 diputados no oficialista — había prometido apoyar pero retiró apoyo viernes — jeopardiza aprobación “en lo general”; medidas: Ganancias corp 27%→23% (Pymes mantienen 12.5% 2026-2027 + 15% 2028 vía Ley 21.755); crédito tributario remuneraciones bajos ingresos US$1.4B/año = 235K Pymes beneficiarias = 4M trabajadores protegidos; eliminación IVA vivienda nueva; permisología — invalidación de permisos sectoriales 2 años → 6 meses; seguro RCA proyectos aprobados; expulsiones migrantes irregulares; objetivo 2030 desempleo 6.5%, crecimiento ~4% anual, equilibrio fiscal estructural; impacto inmediato: −$4B recaudación anual = mayor déficit (actual $9B = 2.7% PIB) + más deuda pública (40% PIB); economistas oposición: beneficio 1,500 personas (0.001% más rico) = $1M ahorrar anual cada uno; Q1 2026 Chile GDP −0.3% (peor desde Q2 2023); IMF Artículo IV May 4 ratificó lógica trend-growth (3% 2027-2030 escenario cobre favorable) pero cortó proyección 2026 2.4%→2.2%; cobre demanda transición verde + IA + defensa = riesgo upside Chile; Kast cadena nacional: “hace 12 años un gobierno anunció reforma tributaria que prometía recaudar $8.2B adicionales — recaudación prometida nunca llegó, crecimiento cayó 5%→2%, inversión contrajo, deuda triplicó”; “no llegamos aquí para repetir el ciclo anterior, llegamos para romperlo”; “150K empresas que dan trabajo a >50% mercado laboral formal + concentran 90% inversión Chile”; Joaquín Lavín León formalizado fraude al fisco

What Happened

• —The CFA verdict: President José Antonio Kast’s Plan Reconstrucción Nacional — a 40-point tax-and-regulatory package the government has framed as the structural answer to Chile’s last-decade growth stagnation — faces growing legislative resistance. The Fiscal Autonomous Council (CFA), the independent technical body created by law in 2019 to monitor fiscal sustainability, told the lower house finance committee on Friday May 8 that the plan “generates a negative net fiscal impact” and warned of an asymmetric risk profile. CFA chair Paula Benavides flagged the descalce — mismatch — between costs and benefits as a transversal risk: “Costs are more certain and predictable, while benefits are uncertain, gradual and conditional. It is not the same to err on one side as on the other with respect to sustainability.”
• —PDG withdraws: Partido de la Gente, the non-oficialista grouping that holds 12 seats in the lower house and had previously committed to support the bill on the general-vote stage, withdrew its support after the CFA testimony — jeopardising the general approval that the government needed to move the package into article-by-article discussion. The headline measures of the plan include the reduction of the corporate income tax rate from 27% to 23%, with SMEs maintaining the transitional 12.5% rate through 2027 and 15% in 2028 per Law 21.755; the creation of a tax credit for hiring low-income workers worth approximately US$1.4 billion per year, benefiting 235,000 SMEs and protecting more than 4 million workers; the elimination of VAT on new housing; the reduction of the environmental-permit invalidation window from two years to six months; and a refund mechanism for projects whose Environmental Qualification Resolutions are later annulled in court. Critics estimate an immediate revenue loss of US$4 billion per year on top of the existing US$9 billion deficit (2.7% of GDP) and a public debt currently at 40% of GDP.
• —The IMF endorsement and the Q1 contraction: The IMF Article IV concluding statement on May 4 endorsed the trend-growth logic of the Plan and projected Chilean growth of approximately 3% for the 2027-2030 period in a favourable scenario with copper sustained in the US$5.50 to US$6.00 per pound range. The IMF nonetheless cut its 2026 growth forecast for Chile from 2.4% to 2.2%, after Q1 2026 GDP contracted by 0.3% — the worst reading since Q2 2023. The macro tension is sharp: the trend-growth argument supports the government’s structural framing, while the near-term fiscal arithmetic strengthens the CFA’s caution. Kast in his first Cadena Nacional framed the political choice directly: “Twelve years ago a government announced a tax reform that promised to collect an additional US$8.2 billion per year. The promised collection never arrived. Growth fell from 5% to 2%. Investment contracted. Public debt tripled. We did not come here to repeat that cycle, we came to break it.”

OUTLOOK: WATCH

Brazil 2026 Election: Flávio Bolsonaro Numerically Overtakes Lula 42-41, BTG/Nexus Confirms 46-45 Statistical Tie

Pesquisas confirmadas — Genial/Quaest 9-13 abril 2026: Sen Flávio Bolsonaro 42% vs Lula 41% segunda volta simulação — primera vez Lula atrás; BTG Pactual/Nexus 24-26 abril 2026: empate estatístico Lula 46% vs Flávio 45% (Lula slight favor); aprovação governo Genial/Quaest: 43% aprovam, 52% reprovam — maior reprovação desde julho 2025; 72% brasileiros em dívida; first round Sun Oct 4, 2026 — runoff possible Sun Oct 25; eleição escolherá: Presidente, todos 513 Cámara Deputados, 54 dos 81 Senado, todos 27 governadores; Lula 80 anos (nasc out 27, 1945) — running mate Geraldo Alckmin (PSB) confirmado 31 marzo 2026; Lula busca 4° mandato sin precedente; Flávio = filho mais velho ex-presidente Jair Bolsonaro encarcerado; trend: dez 2025 Lula tinha 23-point runoff advantage → abril 2026 statistical tie; Lula ganha TODAS outras simulações runoff confortável — Flávio is the only challenger que pode vencer; Bolsonarismo consolidando Flávio post-Jair impossibilidade candidatura; Lula post-Trump return Friday with 30-day tariff frame win + plano contra crime organizado launching this week — ajudará approval; mas: dosimetria veto override + Senate reject Messias STF nominee abril = pior momento 3ro mandato; backdrop económico: industrial production +4.3% YoY marzo, manufacturing PMI 52.6 expansion, IBOV recovery to 184K — mas inflation IPCA mai 14 binary; Petrobras Q1 hoje may extend the rally; Bolsonaro Sr permanece preso pendente recurso STF — Senate STF override balance fragility

What Happened

• —The poll convergence: The Genial/Quaest poll conducted April 9-13, 2026 shows Senator Flávio Bolsonaro numerically overtaking President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva for the first time in a second-round simulation at 42% to 41%. The follow-up BTG Pactual/Nexus survey conducted April 24-26 confirms a statistical tie at 46% for Lula and 45% for Bolsonaro — Lula’s slight favour falls inside the margin of error. Government approval per Genial/Quaest stands at 43% approve and 52% disapprove, the highest disapproval rate since July 2025. Approximately 72% of Brazilians report being in some form of debt. The trend is the story: in December 2025 Lula held a 23-point runoff advantage over the strongest Bolsonaro-camp challenger; that gap closed to a statistical tie by April 2026. Lula wins every other simulated runoff comfortably — Flávio Bolsonaro is the only challenger who can beat him.
• —The calendar and the structural backdrop: The first round of the Brazilian general election is scheduled for Sunday October 4, 2026 with a possible runoff on Sunday October 25 — twenty-one weeks from today. The election will choose the president, all 513 Chamber of Deputies seats, 54 of 81 Senate seats, and all 27 state governors. Lula, 80 years old, confirmed Geraldo Alckmin (PSB) as his running mate on March 31, 2026. He is seeking an unprecedented fourth presidential term. Flávio Bolsonaro is the eldest son of former President Jair Bolsonaro, who remains imprisoned pending Supreme Court appeals — the structural anchor of the Bolsonarist consolidation around Flávio. The Lula camp will look to monetise the 30-day tariff working-group frame negotiated at the White House and the anti-organised-crime plan launching this week, both of which support a security-and-sovereignty narrative. The countervailing pressures are the dosimetria veto override and the Senate rejection of Lula’s Supreme Court nominee Jorge Messias in April — described by analysts as the most fragile moment of Lula’s third term. For daily polling and calendar updates: Brazil 2026 elections guide.

OUTLOOK: WATCH

Markets: Brent $104.50 on Counter-Proposal Rejection — Pre-Open Risk-Off Into Monday

The Iran counter-proposal rejection is the dominant single variable into Monday’s open. Brent rose 3.17% to US$104.50 on Sunday — the sharpest single-session gain since late April — and West Texas Intermediate rose 3.21% to US$98.48 per CNN and CNBC. The Ibovespa’s Friday close of 184,108.29 was supported by banks (Itaú +1.5%, Banco do Brasil +1.6%) and Vale (+1.2%), with Embraer down 6.2% on a Q1 miss; the Petrobras Q1 report after today’s close is the next catalyst. Argentina’s MERVAL closed Friday at 2,769,127 (−2.30%) — the Súper RIGI bill submission to Congress today is structurally bullish and should drive the Monday session, though the Sunday oil move adds an energy-import-bill overhang. Mexico’s IPC consolidates above 69,800 with the central bank’s terminal 6.50% rate now anchored; the consulate-inspection threat from Secretary Rubio is the political overhang. Chile’s IPSA at 10,759 absorbs the CFA negative verdict on the Plan Reconstrucción Nacional and the PDG vote-withdrawal; the Q1 GDP contraction at −0.3% remains the macro frame. The COLCAP at 2,123 carries the weakest technical posture of the group with RSI at 32.88 — Cepeda’s Constituent Assembly pivot continues to grip the closing-stretch campaign with 20 days to the Colombian first round. The USD/BRL at 4.8956 trades at the post-correction low; the 30-day tariff working-group clock starting today supports continued real strength. The combined macro frame is binary into the Trump-Xi Beijing meeting on May 14-15: a deal collapses takes Brent above US$115 and pulls every LATAM index into a risk-off; a Beijing breakthrough lifts the region 2-3% in hours.

Regional Snapshot

What to Watch This Week

• —Mon May 11 (today): Argentina Súper RIGI bill to Congress · Petrobras Q1 results after B3 close · Bolivia La Paz dialogue 08:00 at government palace · Bolivia teachers’ strike begins · US-Brazil 30-day tariff working group clock starts · Brazil Focus survey released · Iran counter-proposal aftermath
• —Tue May 12: Petrobras Q1 webcast (English/Portuguese) · US April CPI + PPI · Brazil IGP-10 wholesale inflation
• —Wed May 14: Argentina April CPI from INDEC (binary disinflation thesis) · Brazil IPCA · Brazil retail sales · Trump-Xi Beijing visit begins
• —Thu May 15: Peru JNE official runoff proclamation · Trump-Xi Beijing day two · Colombia Q1 GDP · UK Q1 GDP · US retail sales
• —Mon May 18: Ecuador curfew (Decree 370) expires · Ancelotti announces Brazil 26-name World Cup squad at the Museu do Amanhã
• —Thu May 21: Banxico minutes (split-vote dissent breakdown)
• —Week of May 25: Mexico-US USMCA formal negotiation phase opens
• —Sun May 31: Colombia presidential first round · Sat Jun 6: Brazil-US 30-day tariff deadline expires · Sun Jun 7: Peru runoff · Jun 17-18: Brazil Copom meeting · Sun Jun 21: Colombia possible runoff · Jul 24: US Section 122 tariffs expiry · Jul 2026: US Section 301 final report on Brazil · Sun Oct 4: Brazil general election

Frequently Asked Questions

What was Iran’s counter-proposal on May 10, 2026 and why did Trump reject it?

Iran submitted its counter-proposal to the US peace framework via Pakistan on Sunday May 10, 2026. The text demands recognition of Iranian sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz, payment of US war reparations to Iran, lifting of all sanctions, release of frozen Iranian assets, and an end to fighting on all fronts including Lebanon. The counter-proposal does not address Iran’s nuclear programme. President Trump rejected the text as “totally unacceptable.” Brent crude rose 3.17% to US$104.50 a barrel on Sunday and West Texas Intermediate rose 3.21% to US$98.48 per barrel. Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu told CBS he wants to reduce US military aid to Israel to zero. The UAE intercepted two ballistic missiles and three drones from Iran on Friday. US Central Command fired on two empty Iranian oil tankers attempting to evade the blockade. President Trump’s Beijing visit on May 14-15 with President Xi Jinping is now the de facto deadline before further military escalation.

What is Argentina’s Súper RIGI bill being submitted to Congress on May 11, 2026?

The Argentine government submits the Súper RIGI bill to Congress today following Economy Minister Luis Caputo’s announcement on May 8 alongside Chief of Staff Manuel Adorni and Security Minister Alejandra Monteoliva. The new investment regime cuts the corporate income tax rate to 15% from the 25% set under the current RIGI, allows accelerated depreciation at 60% in the first year and 20% in each of the second and third years, eliminates export tariffs from day one, eliminates import tariffs on all production inputs, caps the provincial gross-receipts tax at 0.5% for adhering provinces, and prohibits municipal sales taxes. Targeted sectors include copper refining and laminating, lithium batteries, electric vehicles, solar panels, wind turbines, fertilisers, uranium, datacenters, and agro-forestry. Caputo said investment requests could approach US$140 billion in the coming weeks. A US$10 billion Chevron Vaca Muerta project preview was confirmed by Adorni. The Mercedes-Benz Zárate plant inaugurated the same day represents US$110 million and 2,500 jobs. The government opened negotiations with provincial governors over the weekend to secure congressional approval.

What does Petrobras report on May 11, 2026 for its Q1 2026 results?

Petrobras (B3: PETR4 / NYSE: PBR) reports first-quarter 2026 financial results after the close of the B3 trading session today, with the investor webcast scheduled for Tuesday May 12. Banco Safra estimates adjusted consolidated EBITDA at US$14.2 billion (up 30% quarter-on-quarter, 54% margin), net income at US$6 billion, and ordinary dividends at US$2.7 billion implying a 2.1% quarterly yield. BTG Pactual estimates EBITDA at approximately US$13 billion and dividends at US$2.1 billion. Production hit a record 3.225 million barrels of oil equivalent per day, up 4% quarter-on-quarter and 16% year-on-year, driven by the pre-salt fields and the early operation of the Nova Piratininga thermoelectric facility. Brent averaged in the US$95 to US$105 range through the quarter following the late-February Hormuz closure. Petrobras already paid R$41.2 billion in dividends in two tranches on May 20 and June 22, 2026 for the 2025 financial year.

What is Brazil’s anti-organised-crime plan being launched this week?

The Brazilian government launches a comprehensive plan against transnational criminal organisations during the week beginning today, following President Lula’s three-hour White House meeting with President Trump on May 7. The plan establishes a US-Brazil joint financial-asphyxiation track agreed directly between the two presidents. Brazil’s federal tax authority and US counterparts will conduct joint operations against arms smuggling and synthetic-drug trafficking flowing in both directions. The Brazilian Federal Police seized more than half a tonne of US-origin firearms in Brazil between May 2025 and April 2026. The US is separately studying the designation of Brazilian factions Comando Vermelho and Primeiro Comando da Capital as foreign terrorist organisations, a designation that Brazilian authorities and most independent specialists consider a sovereignty risk. The 30-day Brazil-US tariff working-group clock starts today and runs to Saturday June 6, 2026.

What did Bolivia’s Paz announce at the Cochabamba Gran Encuentro Nacional on May 9?

President Rodrigo Paz announced the creation of an open commission for the partial reform of the Bolivian Constitution at the Gran Encuentro Nacional in Cochabamba on Saturday May 9, alongside a package of ten new draft laws covering hydrocarbons, electricity, mining, investment, green economy, security, and entrepreneurship. The event brought together approximately 600 participants including former president Jorge “Tuto” Quiroga, six of nine regional governors, mayors, and representatives of business and social organisations. Paz alerted to a “sicariato antidemocrático” seeking to “generate a democratic rupture” and committed to a 50/50 fiscal redistribution between the central level and the regions starting with the 2027 General Budget. The current Constitution grants the State ownership of natural resources and strategic-sector control. The government convened a follow-up meeting for today Monday May 11 at 08:00 at the government palace with La Paz mayors, councillors, and the CSUTCB peasant confederation.

What is the state of road blockades in Bolivia on May 10-11, 2026?

Road blockades in Bolivia persist into Sunday May 10 and Monday May 11 despite multiple sector-by-sector agreements signed with the Paz government. Active blockade points include Kelequelera and Tajlihui on the route to Larecaja and the north of La Paz department, in Caranavi although the broader agreement was signed Saturday, and at various points along the strategic La Paz-Copacabana, La Paz-Viacha, La Paz-Oruro, Patacamaya, and Santa Bárbara corridors. The truckers’ confederation lifted its measures during the week. The Túpac Katari peasant federation maintains the demand for the immediate resignation of President Paz. The Peruvian Foreign Ministry confirmed that 405 Peruvian nationals remain stranded inside Bolivia. The Tourism Ministry estimates losses of up to 20 million Bolivianos per day (approximately US$2.8 million). The Caranavi agreement establishes a YPFB office opening today to handle vehicle-damage compensation. Bolivia’s teachers’ federation begins a separate strike today.

Why is Chile’s Plan Reconstrucción Nacional in legislative trouble?

President Kast’s Plan Reconstrucción Nacional, a 40-point tax-and-regulatory package designed to lift Chilean trend growth toward 4% and reduce unemployment to 6.5% by 2030, faces growing congressional resistance. The Fiscal Autonomous Council, the independent technical body created in 2019, told the lower house finance committee on Friday May 8 that the plan generates a “negative net fiscal impact” and warned of an asymmetric risk profile in which costs are certain and predictable while benefits are uncertain, gradual and conditional. The Partido de la Gente, which holds 12 seats in the lower house and had previously committed to support the bill in general, withdrew support, jeopardising the general approval vote. Headline measures include cutting the corporate income tax rate from 27% to 23%, creating a tax credit for hiring low-income workers worth approximately US$1.4 billion per year, eliminating VAT on new housing, and accelerating environmental permits. The IMF Article IV concluding statement on May 4 endorsed the trend-growth logic but cut the 2026 growth forecast from 2.4% to 2.2%, after Q1 GDP contracted by 0.3%.

What does the latest Brazilian polling show for the October 2026 election?

The latest Genial/Quaest poll conducted April 9-13, 2026 shows Senator Flávio Bolsonaro numerically overtaking President Lula for the first time in a second-round simulation at 42% to 41%. The follow-up BTG Pactual/Nexus poll conducted April 24-26 confirms a statistical tie at 46% for Lula and 45% for Flávio Bolsonaro. Government approval stands at 43% approve and 52% disapprove, the highest disapproval rate since July 2025. Approximately 72% of Brazilians report being in some form of debt. The first round of the Brazilian general election is scheduled for Sunday October 4, 2026 with a possible runoff on Sunday October 25. Lula confirmed Geraldo Alckmin as his running mate on March 31, 2026. Flávio Bolsonaro is the eldest son of former President Jair Bolsonaro, who remains imprisoned. In December 2025 Lula held a 23-point runoff advantage; that gap closed to a statistical tie by April 2026.

Updated: 2026-05-11T06:45:00Z by Matias Sebastian Lopez · Latin American Pulse Issue Nº 26

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