The Rio Times · Mexico Market Report
Morning Edition · March 25, 2026 · Covering March 24 Session
The Big Three
1
The IPC exploded 2.18% to 65,775 — its strongest single session of the year — even as Wall Street fell 0.36%. The breadth was extraordinary: 33 of 35 IPC components closed positive, led by Megacable (+5.89%), América Móvil (+4.65%), and Sigma Foods (+3.90%). Actinver’s Enrique Covarrubias noted the two-day Monday-Tuesday gain accumulates 2.56%, cutting the March decline to −7.89% while keeping the 2026 YTD at +2.28%. The rally was broad-based across industry, consumer, and telecom sectors.
2
The peso gave back a fraction of Monday’s gain, slipping 0.11% to 17.80 per dollar as the DXY recovered 0.31%. Banxico set the FIX at 17.8047. Iran’s denial of any negotiations and renewed missile strikes on Israel revived dollar demand globally. First-half March inflation data released Tuesday supported the case for a Banxico hold on Thursday, with headline inflation still above the 3% target. Banco Base’s Gabriela Siller noted the IPC outperformed despite the peso headwind.
3
Banxico decides Thursday in what is now the week’s most consequential event for Mexican assets. The consensus is a hold at 7.0%, but with first-half March inflation still elevated and oil above $99, the statement’s tone on forward guidance is what matters. A hawkish hold that signals an extended pause would weigh on equities. A neutral or dovish hold acknowledging the oil retreat could extend Tuesday’s rally toward 66,774.
01 Market Snapshot
| Indicator | Close | Chg |
| S&P/BMV IPC | 65,775.14 | +2.18% |
| USD/MXN (FIX) | 17.80 | +0.11% |
| Brent Crude | $99.54 | −0.40% |
| S&P 500 | 6,557.19 | −0.36% |
| Banxico Rate | 7.00% | Thu |
| IPC YTD 2026 | +2.28% | Mar: −7.89% |
02 Equities
The Mexico stock market IPC today posted its most decisive session of 2026, surging 2.18% to 65,775.14 as domestic buyers overwhelmed the negative Wall Street tape. This is part of The Rio Times’ daily coverage of the Mexican stock market and Latin American financial markets. Gabriela Siller of Banco Base highlighted the 2.56% cumulative two-session gain, while only Peñoles (−0.53%) and BMV (−0.33%) closed red.
| Top Gainers | Chg |
| Megacable | +5.89% |
| América Móvil | +4.65% |
| Sigma Foods | +3.90% |
| Grupo Aeroportuario Centro | +2.79% |
| Volaris | +2.50% |
| Top Losers | Chg |
| Peñoles | −0.53% |
| BMV | −0.33% |
| Only 2 of 35 IPC stocks declined | |
The rally’s breadth — with telecom, consumer, and airport names leading — signals genuine rotation into Mexican domestics rather than a mechanical oil trade. América Móvil’s 4.65% jump was the heaviest index contributor given its large IPC weight. The decoupling from Wall Street is notable: while the S&P 500 fell 0.36% on renewed Iran concerns, the BMV powered higher, suggesting Mexican equities are pricing in catch-up value after weeks of underperformance.
03 Currency
The peso slipped 0.11% to 17.80, giving back a fraction of Monday’s 0.69% gain as the DXY recovered 0.31% on Iran skepticism. Banxico’s FIX was set at 17.8047. The peso opened weak at 17.88 before narrowing losses. Banco Base flagged the peso as one of few EM currencies depreciating Tuesday, alongside the Colombian peso. The first-half March inflation data supports Banxico holding at 7.0% Thursday; analysts at Banamex warned that the central bank could signal a longer pause given the oil-driven inflation overshoot.
04 Technical Analysis
Tuesday’s +2.18% candle is a powerful bullish engulfing pattern that reclaims the 65,700 zone. The MACD histogram improved to −345.82 from −489.44, though the signal lines at −893.15 and −1,238.97 remain deeply negative — the crossover is still distant. RSI recovered to 41.34/38.34, exiting the oversold territory flagged in the prior report. The 200-day SMA at 62,577 is now 4.8% below (wider than yesterday’s 2.8%), confirming the rally is creating breathing room. The 65,712–65,775 zone is the immediate resistance cluster; a close above 66,774 would confirm trend reversal.
05 Key Levels
| Level | Price | Source |
| Resistance 2 | 67,752 | 50-day EMA |
| Resistance 1 | 66,774 | Prior support / MA cluster |
| Tuesday Close | 65,775.14 | March 24, 2026 |
| Support 1 | 64,120 | Tuesday session low |
| Support 2 | 62,577 | 200-day SMA |
06 Global Context
Mexico’s outperformance versus the S&P 500 on Tuesday signals a regime shift: the BMV is repricing catch-up value after weeks of oversold conditions while Wall Street grapples with renewed Iran uncertainty and rising Treasury yields (10Y at 4.39%). Brent stabilized near $99.54, but Iran’s renewed missile strikes on Israel and Macquarie’s warning that Brent could hit $150 if Hormuz stays closed through April keep the energy risk alive. US March PMI showed the weakest growth in 11 months.
07 Looking Ahead
Thursday’s Banxico decision is the week’s binary event. A dovish hold or any hint that the cutting cycle could resume in May would fuel a third consecutive gain toward 66,774. A hawkish statement emphasizing oil-driven inflation risks would cap the rally. Trump’s ceasefire window expires Saturday — late-week oil moves will dominate. The Volaris rebalance positioning and América Móvil’s momentum could sustain domestic buying if global headwinds remain contained.
08 Verdict
Bias: NEUTRAL, upgraded from Bearish. Tuesday’s +2.18% engulfing candle with 33/35 breadth is the strongest reversal signal since the selloff began. However, MACD remains deeply negative and the ceasefire window is fragile. A close above 66,774 upgrades to Cautiously Bullish. A Banxico hawkish surprise or ceasefire collapse returns to Bearish. Thursday is the catalyst.