The Big Three
The Ibovespa fell 0.78% to 191,378.43 (−1,510.53 points) on Thursday — the second consecutive decline and the fifth losing session in the last seven — as U.S. futures dragged global risk appetite and oil surged toward $103. The two-day loss since the B3 reopening from Tiradentes now totals 4,754 points (−2.42%), with the index falling from 196,132 to 191,378 in two sessions. The session’s structure was weak: O:192,889, H:193,347, L:190,930, C:191,378 — the high barely exceeded the open and the close landed near the low. The index is now 3.66% below the ATH of 198,657 and 4.50% from 200,000. More critically, the MACD histogram turned negative for the first time since the rally began — a technical regime change signal.
The dollar broke back above R$5.00 — closing at R$5.0245 — ending the six-session streak below R$5 that had been the real’s signature achievement of April. The move is significant: from R$4.9535 (Monday’s cycle low) to R$5.0245 is a 1.43% bounce in three sessions, driven by rising oil prices (which re-introduce inflation pressure), U.S. dollar strength on risk-off flows, and the oversold relief rally that technicals had been flagging for days. RSI jumped to 41.87 (from 32.70), confirming the mean reversion. MACD at 0.0012 — the line has crossed zero from negative to positive for the first time since mid-March, signaling the dollar’s downtrend may be pausing. The R$5.00 level is now the battleground: above it, the Copom’s dovish narrative weakens; below it, the carry trade resumes.
Oil surged toward $103 intraday — the highest since the ceasefire began — as the IRGC’s continued blockade rhetoric and the absence of confirmed negotiations pushed the war premium back into crude. The ceasefire is extended but increasingly hollow: Trump’s Truth Social announcement, Vance not traveling, Iran not confirming delegates, and oil testing $103 all point to a market that prices the ceasefire as a label without substance. For Brazil, $103 oil is the worst possible level: too high for a dovish Copom (inflation risk), high enough to support Petrobras but not enough to offset the drag on the rest of the index. Vale fell 1.10% to R$86.26 on weaker iron ore. J.P. Morgan downgraded Klabin to neutral. U.S. futures fell across the board, reducing EM inflow appetite.
01 Market Snapshot
| Indicator | Value | Change |
| Ibovespa Close | 191,378.43 | −0.78% (−1,510 pts) |
| Session Low | 190,929.82 | lowest since Apr 8 |
| USD/BRL | R$5.0245 | back above R$5 (streak over) |
| From ATH (198,657) | −7,279 pts | −3.66% |
| 2-Day Loss (since reopen) | −4,754 pts | −2.42% |
| Distance to 200,000 | 8,622 pts | 4.50% |
| April MTD | +2.09% | was +4.62% a week ago |
| YTD | +18.77% | was +21.72% a week ago |
| Brent / Oil Perp | ~$103 | surging · ceasefire hollow |
| Copom | Apr 28–29 | 4 days |
02 Equities — MACD Goes Negative, Structure Shifts
Today’s Ibovespa today report covers the session where the correction became technical. The MACD histogram crossed below zero (−260.60) for the first time since the April rally began — shifting the signal from “bullish momentum decaying” to “bearish.” The histogram had been compressing for seven sessions: 1,525 → 797 → 554 → 136 → now −260. The zero cross is not a sell signal in isolation, but it means the rally’s thrust is exhausted and the index must find new buyers or continue lower. This is The Rio Times’ continuing daily coverage of Brazil’s stock market and the broader Latin American financial markets.
The session was dragged by three forces: U.S. futures selling off across the board (reducing EM risk appetite), oil surging toward $103 (re-introducing inflation pressure that complicates the Copom), and post-ex-dividend Petrobras repositioning. Vale fell 1.10% to R$86.26 on weaker iron ore from Dalian. J.P. Morgan downgraded Klabin to neutral. The foreign inflow data from B3 — R$14.6 billion in April through the 15th, R$68 billion YTD — confirms the structural bid is intact, but the daily flow has shifted: the foreigners who drove the rally to 198,657 are now realizing profits on the names that ran hardest (Petrobras, Axia, banks).
The Ibovespa is now below the Senkou B (lower cloud boundary) at ~191,489, confirmed by Thursday’s close at 191,378. The index has fallen through the entire Ichimoku cloud in two sessions — from above the cloud (196,132 on Monday) through the cloud (192,889 on Wednesday) to below it (191,378 on Thursday). This is a bearish cloud exit. The next support is the 191,170 / 191,206 cluster visible on the chart, then 187,197 (Kijun/Tenkan convergence). The 200-day SMA at 159,531 remains 19.9% below — the long-term uptrend is unchallenged.
03 Dollar — Back Above R$5, Streak Over
From the chart: O/H/L/C: 5.0245 (thin holiday-like candle). The dollar closed above R$5.00 for the first time since April 14, ending the six-session streak below the psychological level. RSI at 41.87 (signal: 33.47) has bounced sharply from the deeply oversold readings of last week (26.96 signal). The MACD line crossed zero to positive at 0.0012 — the first bullish cross since mid-March — signaling a pause or reversal in the dollar’s downtrend. Key levels: support R$4.9885 / R$4.9825 → R$4.8871 (chart floor). Resistance R$5.0245 (current) → R$5.0577 → R$5.0624 → R$5.1329. The dollar’s move above R$5 is consistent with oil at $103, U.S. risk-off flows, and the ceasefire’s hollow structure. If oil drops back below $95, the real resumes its carry-trade advantage. If oil holds above $100, R$5.05–5.10 is the range.
04 Technical Analysis — Ibovespa Daily
From the chart: O:192,889.13, H:193,346.63, L:190,929.82, C:191,378.43 (−1,510.53, −0.78%). Another red candle closing near the low — the second in two sessions. RSI at 64.86 (signal: 52.51) shows the main line still elevated but the signal diverging sharply downward — the RSI crossover is imminent and will confirm the bearish shift. MACD at 3,299.52 (signal: 3,038.92, histogram: −260.60) — the histogram has crossed below zero for the first time since the rally began. This is the defining technical event of the week: the post-ATH momentum has not just faded — it has reversed.
The 200-day SMA at 159,530.58 sits 19.9% below — the long-term uptrend remains secure. But the near-term picture has shifted from neutral to bearish: the index has exited the Ichimoku cloud from below, the MACD histogram is negative, and the dollar has broken above R$5. Key levels: 191,378 (close) → 191,206 / 191,170 (chart support cluster) → 187,208 / 187,197 (Kijun/Tenkan convergence — the major support zone) → 180,218 (deep). Upside: 193,347 (Thursday high) → 195,142 → 196,075.
05 Key Levels
| Level | Ibovespa |
| ATH (Apr 14) | 198,657 |
| Cloud Top (now resistance) | ~195,142 |
| Thursday Close | 191,378 |
| Support cluster | 191,206 / 191,170 |
| Thursday Low | 190,930 |
| Kijun / Tenkan convergence | 187,197 |
| 200-Day SMA | 159,531 |
06 News in Focus
Oil Tests $103 as Ceasefire Extension Proves Hollow
Brent crude surged toward $103 intraday on Thursday — the highest since the ceasefire was announced — as the IRGC continued its blockade rhetoric and no confirmed negotiation dates emerged. The ceasefire, extended by Trump’s Truth Social post on Tuesday, is increasingly a label without operational substance: Vance didn’t travel, Iran didn’t confirm delegates, and the Hormuz reopening from April 17 was reversed by the IRGC within 48 hours. For Brazil, $103 oil re-introduces the inflation pressure that had been fading during the $85–90 window. The Copom’s April 28–29 decision is now framed by $103 oil rather than $89 oil — making a 50bp cut impossible and even a 25bp cut contingent on guidance language that acknowledges the energy-price risk.
Foreign Profit-Taking: R$68B YTD Inflows Intact, But Daily Flow Reversed
B3 data shows R$14.6 billion in foreign equity inflows in April through the 15th, with R$68 billion YTD — confirming the structural bid is intact. But the daily flow has reversed: the names that foreign investors pushed to ATH (Petrobras, banks, Axia) are now being sold. This is classic late-cycle profit-taking — the structural allocation hasn’t changed, but the marginal dollar is rotating from winners to cash. The pattern is consistent with a market that ran 7,355 points in five sessions and is now giving back 7,279 points (3.66% from ATH) over ten sessions. The foreign bid will return when the Copom provides clarity — but until then, the marginal seller has the upper hand.
U.S. Futures Drag Global Risk; Vale −1.10%, Klabin Downgraded
U.S. equity futures fell across the board on Thursday, dragging global risk appetite and reducing capital flow to emerging markets. The S&P, Nasdaq, and Dow all signaled weak openings. Vale fell 1.10% to R$86.26 on lower iron ore from Dalian. J.P. Morgan downgraded Klabin to neutral. Genial projected Suzano’s Q1 Ebitda at R$4.2 billion — weaker than expected due to cellulose volume contraction and Chinese New Year seasonality. The domestic corporate picture is shifting from “everything rallies” to “earnings will differentiate” — and Q1 reporting season begins next week (Gerdau April 27, Vale April 28, Suzano April 29).
07 Looking Ahead
The Ibovespa enters the final week of April with its worst technical setup since the rally began: MACD negative, below the Ichimoku cloud, dollar above R$5, oil at $103. The next four trading days before the Copom (April 28–29) will determine whether this is a healthy correction within a bull trend or the beginning of a more sustained pullback toward the 187,197 Kijun/Tenkan convergence.
The earnings calendar provides the counterweight: Gerdau Q1 (April 27), Vale Q1 (April 28), Suzano Q1 (April 29). Strong numbers from Vale or Gerdau could arrest the selling before the Copom. The Copom itself must now navigate $103 oil, a dollar above R$5, and an index that has corrected 3.66% — conditions that argue for caution (hold) rather than aggression (50bp cut). The consensus 25bp cut to 14.50% remains the base case, but the guidance language will determine whether the market stabilizes or extends lower.
Key dates: Friday April 24 — today. April 27 — Gerdau Q1. April 28 — Vale Q1. April 28–29 — Copom meeting. April 29 — Suzano Q1. May 5 — Itaú/Bradesco Q1. May 11 — Petrobras Q1.
08 Verdict
Three things broke this week. The Ibovespa fell below the Ichimoku cloud. The MACD histogram went negative. The dollar broke back above R$5. Any one of these alone would be a warning. All three together shift the near-term bias from “correction within a bull trend” to “bearish until proven otherwise.” The structural drivers that powered the 21% YTD rally — foreign inflows, Selic carry, weak DXY, ceasefire — are all being challenged: inflows are rotating to cash, oil at $103 complicates the Selic path, the dollar is strengthening globally, and the ceasefire is a Truth Social post, not a signed deal.
Bias: Bearish near-term — 191,170 is the immediate floor, 187,197 is the target if it breaks, Copom is the only reset. The long-term uptrend (200-day SMA at 159,531, 19.9% below) is unchallenged. April MTD at +2.09% is still positive. The foreign inflow base (R$68B YTD) hasn’t cracked. But the momentum has. The MACD turning negative is the week’s defining technical event — the rally that took the Ibovespa from 187,465 to 198,657 in April has fully exhausted its thrust. The index needs fresh catalyst to stabilize: Gerdau earnings, Vale earnings, or a Copom cut with dovish guidance. Without one of those, the path of least resistance is toward the Kijun at 187,197 — which would erase the entire April gain. That’s the risk. The Copom in four days is the answer.
Related coverage:
Wednesday session: Ibovespa Falls 1.65% on Petrobras Ex-Dividend
Ceasefire extension: Ibovespa Reopens Into Ceasefire Extension
Petrobras AGM: Petrobras AGM: R$41.2B Dividends Approved
Investing guide: Investing in Brazil 2026: B3, Selic, Real Estate and Risks
This report is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Always consult a licensed financial advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Published by The Rio Times.