The Big Three
Trump extended the U.S.-Israeli ceasefire with Iran on Tuesday afternoon — reversing his own morning statement that an extension was “highly unlikely” — removing the single largest risk event facing global markets. The extension, announced via Truth Social, remains in effect until Iran submits its proposal for a peace deal. Vice President Vance did not travel to Pakistan as planned, and Iran has not confirmed sending a delegation back to Islamabad, but the ceasefire holds. The whiplash was extraordinary: Trump told CNBC’s Squawk Box Tuesday morning that he didn’t plan to extend and was “raring to go” on strikes against civilian infrastructure. Hours later, the extension dropped. Oil, which had surged ~6% on Monday to $93–94 on the expectation of collapse, now faces a retracement. B3 was closed for Tiradentes through all of it — and reopens today directly into the aftermath.
The dollar bounced to R$4.9820 during the Tiradentes holiday — up 0.57% from Monday’s R$4.9535 close — as the IRGC reversed its Hormuz “open” declaration and oil spiked, triggering an oversold relief rally in the greenback. From the chart: O/H/L/C all at 4.9820 (holiday-thin candle). RSI at 33.62 (signal: 32.78) remains oversold, with the signal now approaching the 30 threshold. The MACD histogram at −0.0648 has narrowed slightly from −0.0684, hinting at the first deceleration in the dollar’s downtrend. The bounce toward R$5.00 that the technicals had been signaling for days arrived during a holiday — the worst timing for B3 participants who couldn’t hedge. Today’s open will determine whether the dollar retests R$5.00 on the ceasefire extension (oil falls → real strengthens) or extends the bounce toward R$5.03–5.07 (oil remains elevated → carry unwind).
B3 reopens into a triple catalyst: the ceasefire extension, the Petrobras ex-dividend cut-off (today, April 22), and a global equity reversal — the Nasdaq snapped its 13-day winning streak (longest since 1992) while the S&P 500 fell 0.24% to 7,109. The Ibovespa’s last print was Monday’s 196,132.06 (+0.20%). The technicals from the chart are frozen at Monday’s levels: RSI 65.53/65.17 (converged, neutral), MACD histogram 554.33 (compressing from 1,525 peak), 200-day SMA at 159,020. The ceasefire extension is a net positive for the non-oil Ibovespa (lower oil → dovish Copom) but a negative for Petrobras (lower oil → lower earnings). Today’s session is the Petrobras ex-dividend cut-off for the R$41.2 billion distribution — institutional holders must be positioned by the close. The overlap of a geopolitical catalyst and a corporate catalyst on reopening day after a two-day absence creates conditions for the most volatile session since the Hormuz opening on April 17.
01 Market Snapshot (Pre-Open)
| Indicator | Last / Pre-Open | Context |
| Ibovespa (Mon close) | 196,132.06 | +0.20% Mon · B3 closed Tue |
| USD/BRL (Tue holiday) | R$4.9820 | +0.57% bounce from R$4.9535 |
| Distance to 200,000 | 3,868 pts | 1.97% |
| April MTD | +4.62% | best month of 2026 |
| YTD | +21.72% | top-performing EM equity |
| Brent Crude | ~$93 | ceasefire extended → watch for drop |
| S&P 500 (Tue close) | 7,109 | −0.24% |
| Nasdaq (Tue close) | 24,404 | −0.26% (snapped 13-day streak) |
| Petrobras | ex-div today | R$41.2B distribution cut-off |
| Next Copom | Apr 28–29 | 6 days |
02 What Happened While B3 Was Closed
Today’s Ibovespa today pre-open report covers 48 hours of accumulated geopolitical risk that B3 could not trade through. The Tiradentes holiday closed the exchange on Tuesday — and the ceasefire deadline, which had been the single most anticipated event of the week, passed with Brazil’s markets dark. This is The Rio Times’ continuing daily coverage of Brazil’s stock market and the broader Latin American financial markets.
Tuesday’s timeline was chaotic. Morning: Trump told CNBC he would not extend the ceasefire and was “raring to go” on strikes. Midday: Vance’s Pakistan trip was cancelled — no second round of talks confirmed. Afternoon: Trump reversed himself on Truth Social, extending the ceasefire “until Iran submits its proposal for a peace deal.” Meanwhile, the IRGC had already reversed Iran’s Friday Hormuz “open” declaration, oil spiked ~6% on Monday to $93–94, the dollar bounced to R$4.9820 during the holiday, and the Nasdaq snapped its 13-day winning streak (longest since 1992). The gap between rhetoric and reality that our morning call flagged as “the widest of the entire war” resolved in favour of extension — but the path to get there spooked markets.
For the Ibovespa, the ceasefire extension is a replay of April 7 at smaller scale: if oil drops on the extension (say to $87–90), the Petrobras-heavy index faces selling pressure but the non-oil majority rallies on dovish Copom expectations. If oil holds at $93 because the extension is perceived as fragile (Vance didn’t go, Iran didn’t confirm delegates), the index opens flat-to-positive with Petrobras still supported. The Petrobras ex-dividend cut-off today adds a second price vector: institutional buyers who need R$41.2B of distribution exposure must buy by close. The net setup is mildly bullish — the tail risk (ceasefire collapse) has been removed, and the ex-dividend creates forced demand.
03 Dollar — Oversold Bounce to R$4.98 During the Holiday
From the chart: O/H/L/C: 4.9820 (holiday doji — minimal FX activity). The dollar bounced 0.57% from Monday’s R$4.9535 close, consistent with the oil spike and the oversold signals that had been building for a week (RSI signal at 32.78, now in deeply oversold territory). MACD histogram at −0.0648, slightly narrower than −0.0684 — the first deceleration signal. Key levels: support R$4.8846 (chart floor) → R$4.9820 (current). Resistance R$4.9849 → R$5.0079 → R$5.0734 → R$5.0847 → R$5.1389. The ceasefire extension should push the dollar back toward R$4.95–4.97 if oil drops, or toward R$5.00–5.03 if oil remains elevated. The structural trend (14.75% Selic, R$67.4B inflows) favours further real appreciation on any de-escalation.
04 Technical Analysis — Ibovespa Daily (Frozen at Monday’s Close)
The Ibovespa chart is frozen at Monday’s close: 196,132.06. RSI at 65.53/65.17 (converged — neutral momentum), MACD histogram at 554.33 (compressing from the peak of 1,525), 200-day SMA at 159,020. The last data point: O:195,734.25, H:196,724.17, L:195,281.94, C:196,132.06. Today’s session will add the first new candle since Monday — and it will have to price 48 hours of accumulated information: ceasefire extension, oil repricing, dollar bounce, Nasdaq correction, and the Petrobras ex-dividend. The range to watch: 195,282 (Monday low / Kijun support) is the floor. The triple-rejected 198,951 (2008 real ATH) is the ceiling. A ceasefire-driven oil drop could push the non-oil index toward the upper bound; Petrobras ex-dividend positioning may offset any selling pressure from lower crude.
05 Key Levels
| Level | Ibovespa |
| 200,000 (psychological) | 200,000 |
| 2008 Real ATH (triple rejected) | 198,951 |
| Monday High | 196,724 |
| Last Close (Mon) | 196,132 |
| Monday Low / Kijun | 195,282 |
| Cloud Top (Senkou A) | 193,807 |
| 200-Day SMA | 159,020 |
06 News in Focus
Ceasefire Extended — But the Path to Get There Spooked Markets
Tuesday’s sequence was the most volatile 12 hours of diplomacy since the war began. Trump told CNBC at 6 AM that he would not extend the ceasefire and threatened strikes on Iranian civilian infrastructure — “raring to go.” By noon, Vance’s Pakistan trip was cancelled. By 4 PM, Trump reversed on Truth Social and extended the ceasefire until Iran submits a deal proposal. Iran has not confirmed sending delegates back to Islamabad, and the IRGC had already reversed the Hormuz “open” declaration from Friday. The net: the ceasefire holds, but the mechanism is Trump’s unilateral decision-making, not a negotiated agreement. Markets must price the extension as real but fragile — which means oil stays elevated ($87–93 range) rather than crashing to the $82–85 range that Friday’s Hormuz opening had briefly unlocked.
Petrobras Ex-Dividend: R$41.2B Distribution Cut-Off Today
The B3 cut-off for Petrobras‘ R$41.2 billion dividend distribution is today — shares trade ex-dividend from April 23. The government and BNDES, as controlling shareholders, receive R$17.6 billion of the total. Institutional holders who need to be positioned for the payout must buy by today’s close. The ex-dividend typically creates a mechanical price gap: PETR4 should drop by approximately the per-share dividend amount on Thursday’s open, but pre-ex buying pressure today may partially offset the oil-related selling that the ceasefire extension could trigger. The Petrobras trade today is a three-body problem: oil price × ex-dividend positioning × ceasefire sentiment.
Nasdaq Snaps 13-Day Streak; U.S. Equities Pull Back
The Nasdaq fell 0.26% on Tuesday, snapping its 13-day winning streak — the longest since 1992. The S&P 500 dipped 0.24% to 7,109, while the Dow was flat at 49,443. The Russell 2000, however, hit a new closing ATH at 2,793 (+0.58%), suggesting the risk appetite rotation from mega-cap tech to small-caps and cyclicals is intact. For the Ibovespa, the U.S. pullback is a minor headwind but the Russell’s strength is consistent with the EM-inflow thesis that has powered Brazil’s 21.72% YTD rally.
07 Looking Ahead
Today’s session is the most loaded of the month. The Ibovespa must absorb: (1) the ceasefire extension and its oil-price implications, (2) the Petrobras ex-dividend cut-off, (3) the Nasdaq correction and Russell ATH, (4) the dollar’s bounce to R$4.98, and (5) the 48-hour information gap from Tiradentes. The setup favours mild upside: the tail risk (ceasefire collapse) has been removed, ex-dividend positioning creates forced buying, and the structural drivers (21.72% YTD, R$67.4B foreign inflows, R$4.98 dollar, Copom in 6 days) are all intact.
The risk is oil. If Brent holds above $93 because the market treats the extension as fragile, Petrobras gets a short-term boost but the Copom calculus stays constrained. If Brent drops toward $88–90, the non-oil index rallies hard and the 50bp cut thesis at April 28–29 gets another life. Watch the first hour: Petrobras will tell you whether the market is pricing the extension as bullish (lower oil) or neutral (oil stays elevated on fragile peace).
Key dates: Wednesday April 22 — B3 reopens, Petrobras ex-dividend cut-off, ceasefire extended. Thursday April 23 — shares trade ex-dividend. April 27 — Gerdau Q1. April 28 — Vale Q1. April 28–29 — Copom meeting. May 5 — Itaú/Bradesco Q1.
08 Verdict
The worst-case scenario did not happen. The ceasefire did not collapse. Hormuz did not close permanently. Oil did not spike to $100+. The war did not escalate. The binary that held markets hostage for a week resolved in favour of extension — messy, fragile, and unilateral, but extension nonetheless. B3 reopens today into a market where the tail risk has been removed but the structural uncertainty remains: the ceasefire is held together by Trump’s Truth Social posts, not by a signed agreement. Oil is in the $87–93 range, which is the “uncomfortable middle” — not low enough for a 50bp Copom cut, not high enough to force a hold.
Bias: Mildly bullish — the tail risk is gone, the ex-dividend creates forced demand, and the Copom is 6 days away. The Ibovespa’s floor at 195,282 should hold. The 198,951 triple-rejected ceiling is the upside target if oil drops below $90 and the ceasefire stabilizes. The dollar at R$4.98 is the key variable: if it resumes its downtrend toward R$4.90, the carry trade deepens and the equity rally extends. If it holds above R$5.00, the market is telling you the ceasefire extension isn’t enough. Watch Petrobras at the open, watch oil at 10:00 BRT, and watch the dollar by 15:00 BRT. Today’s session will set the tone for the six trading days before Copom.
Related coverage:
Monday session: Ibovespa Today: 196,132 Bounce as Oil Hits $94 and Braskem Gets New Owners
Friday Hormuz: Ibovespa Today: Hormuz Opening Crashes Oil 10%, Petrobras Loses 7%
Morning call: Brazil Morning Call: Ceasefire Expires Today
Investing guide: Investing in Brazil 2026: B3, Selic, Real Estate and Risks
This report is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Always consult a licensed financial advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Published by The Rio Times.