The Big Three
The Ibovespa fell 0.51% to 188,618.69 (−960.10 points) in its fifth consecutive decline — touching 187,236.79 intraday, just 40 points above the Kijun/Tenkan at 187,197 — before a late bounce saved the critical support. Open = High for the third straight day (189,578 for both), meaning sellers dominated from the first tick for the fifth session running. The index has now fallen 10,039 points (5.05%) from the ATH. April MTD is down to +0.62% — the entire month’s gain nearly erased. The Kijun at 187,197 is the most important technical level on the chart: it held by 40 points on Tuesday. If it breaks today, the next support is 183,263 — a further 4,000-point drop. If it holds through the Copom decision, it becomes the floor for a relief rally.
Oil surged 4% on Tuesday to above $110 — the highest since the war’s early days — as U.S.-Iran negotiations stalled and the war premium returned in full force. The move from $96 to $110 in two sessions is the kind of energy shock that rewrites the Copom’s entire calculus. At $110, Petrobras’ fuel gap is the widest since the war began (gasoline 88 days without adjustment), inflation expectations will spike further from the already-above-ceiling 4.86%, and a 50bp Copom cut — which XP had flagged as possible if oil dropped to $85 — is now firmly off the table. The Superquarta tonight (Copom at 18:30 BRT + Fed at 15:00 BRT) is the most loaded dual-central-bank day since the war began. The Fed is expected to hold; the Copom is expected to cut 25bp to 14.50%.
The MACD histogram deepened to −1,041.55 — breaking through −1,000 for the first time — while the RSI signal crashed to 46.11, now below 50 and diverging massively from the main RSI at 62.47. The RSI signal below 50 means the moving-average momentum has turned formally bearish. The histogram at −1,042 has accelerated from −260 → −566 → −831 → −1,042 in four sessions — each day worse than the last. The dollar held flat at R$4.9758 — the eighth session of equity decline where the dollar has refused to panic. The carry-trade anchor (14.75% Selic, R$68B foreign inflows) continues to hold the real even as the Ibovespa approaches its most important technical support. XP raised its IPCA forecast to 4.8% and Selic terminal to 13.50%. The Santander expects no guidance for June.
01 Market Snapshot
| Indicator | Value | Change |
| Ibovespa Close | 188,618.69 | −0.51% (−960 pts) |
| Session Low (Kijun test) | 187,236.79 | 40 pts above 187,197 Kijun |
| USD/BRL | R$4.9758 | +0.05% · flat · below R$5 |
| From ATH (198,657) | −10,039 pts | −5.05% |
| April MTD | +0.62% | nearly erased (was +4.62%) |
| YTD | +17.06% | was +21.72% |
| Brent / Oil | ~$110 | +4% Tue (war premium) |
| Superquarta | Today | Copom 18:30 + Fed 15:00 |
02 Equities — The Kijun Test: 40 Points From Collapse
Today’s Ibovespa today report covers the session where the market nearly broke. The index hit 187,236.79 intraday — a level not seen since April 7 and just 40 points above the Kijun/Tenkan convergence at 187,197. That level has been our stated floor for two weeks. The bounce from 187,237 to the 188,619 close was the first meaningful dip-buying of the entire five-session decline — suggesting that institutional bids are positioned at the Kijun, not above it. This is The Rio Times’ continuing daily coverage of Brazil’s stock market and the broader Latin American financial markets.
Oil’s surge to $110 was the session’s primary driver. The $96 → $110 move in two days is the steepest oil spike since the early days of the war, driven by the collapse of negotiation momentum: Iran declared its missile programme off the table, Witkoff-Kushner talks produced no visible progress, and the ceasefire remains Trump’s unilateral Truth Social extension without a signed agreement. At $110, the entire macro calculus shifts. Petrobras should benefit (higher oil = higher earnings), but the broader index cannot: $110 oil means higher domestic fuel prices (eventually — 88 days without gasoline adjustment), higher IPCA, a more hawkish Copom, and compressed cutting cycle. The index’s 5.05% correction from ATH is now pricing this reality.
The open = high pattern continued for the third day (O/H both at 189,578), confirming persistent selling from the first tick. The 1,382-point intraday range (189,578 to 187,237) was the widest since the Petrobras ex-dividend session. The late bounce saved the Kijun — for now. Today’s Superquarta session will determine whether the Kijun holds (Copom dovish) or breaks (Copom hawkish + oil at $110 + Fed hold). If it breaks, the next support is 183,263 — a gap of 3,956 points that contains no major technical levels. That’s the risk.
03 Dollar — R$4.98 Refuses to Break
From the chart: O:4.9733, H:4.9758, L:4.9733, C:4.9758 (+0.0027, +0.05%). The dollar moved 2.5 centavos on a day the Ibovespa fell 960 points and oil hit $110. The real’s resilience is now approaching the extraordinary: five consecutive equity declines totaling over 10,000 points, oil at $110, IPCA expectations at 4.86% — and the dollar sits at R$4.9758. RSI at 37.25 (signal: 32.88) remains in the oversold zone. MACD at 0.0027 — barely positive. The structural forces (14.75% Selic, R$68B inflows, Brazil as net oil exporter) are holding the real in place. The Copom tonight is the FX event: a dovish cut could push the dollar to R$4.90. A hawkish pause could test R$5.05. Support: R$4.8870 (chart floor). Resistance: R$4.9828 → R$5.0275 → R$5.0462.
04 Technical Analysis — Ibovespa Daily
From the chart: O:189,578.50, H:189,578.50, L:187,236.79, C:188,618.69 (−960.10, −0.51%). A red candle with a long lower wick — the first “hammer-like” structure since the correction began, suggesting dip-buying at the Kijun. RSI at 62.47 (signal: 46.11) — the signal has crashed below 50, confirming bearish momentum in the secondary indicator. MACD at 2,689.93 (signal: 1,648.38, histogram: −1,041.55) — the histogram broke −1,000. The 200-day SMA at 160,293.93 is 17.7% below.
Key levels: 193,235 (distant resistance) → 192,167 → 190,216 → 188,619 (close) → 187,350 / 187,197 (KIJUN — THE LEVEL) → 183,263 (next support if Kijun breaks). The intraday touch of 187,237 — 40 points above the Kijun — is the most precise test of a key level in the entire April series. The bounce confirms institutional bids exist there. The Copom tonight determines whether those bids hold or get overwhelmed.
05 Key Levels
| Level | Ibovespa |
| ATH (Apr 14) | 198,657 |
| Resistance | 190,216 |
| Tuesday Close | 188,619 |
| KIJUN / TENKAN (tested) | 187,197 |
| Next support (if Kijun breaks) | 183,263 |
| 200-Day SMA | 160,294 |
06 News in Focus
Oil Surges to $110 — War Premium Returns in Full Force
Brent crude surged 4% on Tuesday to above $110 — the highest since the war’s early March peak — as U.S.-Iran negotiations stalled. Iran declared its missile programme off the table. The Witkoff-Kushner Pakistan talks produced no visible breakthrough. The ceasefire remains a Truth Social post, not a treaty. At $110, every link in the Brazilian macro chain is under stress: Petrobras’ 88-day fuel gap is now the widest since the war began, IPCA expectations at 4.86% will spike further, and the Copom’s ability to cut is constrained. XP has raised its Selic terminal forecast to 13.50%, while BTG and ASA project 13.00%. The oil shock is now the dominant macro variable for Brazilian markets.
Superquarta: Copom + Fed Decide Today
Today is the Superquarta — both the Copom (18:30 BRT) and the Fed (15:00 BRT) announce decisions. The Fed is expected to hold rates (90%+ probability). The Copom is expected to cut 25bp to 14.50% — a consensus shared by 33 of 37 institutions surveyed. The key is the comunicado: Santander expects no guidance for June. Itaú BBA expects “serenidade e cautela” language to continue. XP expects a harder tone citing “choques inflacionários.” The Warren expects the Copom to flag discomfort with Focus de-anchoring without committing to next steps. The market’s pricing: 25bp cut delivered, no forward guidance, harder inflation language. That would be Scenario B from our preview — neutral to mildly hawkish, extending the correction but not crashing it.
Vale Q1 Reports Today; Petrobras Fuel Gap at 88 Days
Vale reports Q1 today, adding a corporate catalyst alongside the dual central-bank decisions. Iron ore weakness and the China-demand question make Vale’s numbers the most important earnings release of the week. Petrobras’ fuel-price gap widened further with oil at $110: gasoline is now 65%+ below international parity, diesel 50%+ below. The implicit subsidy suppresses near-term IPCA but builds fiscal pressure that will eventually require either a price adjustment (bullish for IPCA, bearish for consumer stocks) or a government subsidy (bearish for fiscal targets, potentially bearish for the real).
07 Looking Ahead
The Superquarta is the inflection point. The market enters today’s session at 188,619 with the Kijun at 187,197 tested and held by 40 points. The Copom decision at 18:30 BRT (after B3 closes at 17:00) means Thursday’s open will be the market’s first reaction to the comunicado. The Fed at 15:00 BRT will set the tone during the afternoon session. Oil at $110 is the wildcard — any ceasefire progress could crash crude and flip the entire dynamic. Any escalation pushes it toward $115–120 and makes the Kijun break inevitable.
Key dates: Wednesday April 29 — Superquarta: Fed 15:00 BRT, Copom 18:30 BRT, Vale Q1, Suzano Q1. Thursday April 30 — market reacts to Copom/Fed. May 5 — Itaú/Bradesco Q1. May 11 — Petrobras Q1.
08 Verdict
Five consecutive declines. 10,039 points from the ATH. The Kijun tested within 40 points. Oil at $110. MACD histogram at −1,042. Open = High for three straight days. And yet — the dollar is at R$4.98, the Kijun held, and institutional bids appeared at 187,237. The market is in crisis but not collapse. The difference is the Copom: if the comunicado tonight signals continued easing (even cautiously), the Kijun becomes the floor and the index bounces toward 190K. If the comunicado turns hawkish — flagging the $110 oil and 4.86% IPCA as risks to the cutting cycle — the Kijun breaks Thursday morning and 183,263 comes into play.
Bias: Bearish but the Kijun is the line — and it held today. The five-session decline has been the most orderly correction of the entire war: each day’s loss has been smaller than the last (−3,243 → −1,510 → −633 → −1,166 → −960), the dollar has refused to panic, and the Kijun at 187,197 absorbed the selling. The bounce from 187,237 to 188,619 is the first hammer-like candle since the correction began — a potential exhaustion signal. The Superquarta is the test. Oil at $110 makes the Copom’s job harder, but the 40-point hold at the Kijun says the market has already priced the worst case. What it hasn’t priced is a positive surprise. If it gets one — from the Copom, the Fed, Vale, or the Pakistan talks — the relief rally will be violent. That’s the trade.
Related coverage:
Monday session: Ibovespa Breaks Below 190K as Copom Decides
Friday session: Ibovespa at 190,745: Third Loss, Dollar Below R$5
Petrobras AGM: Petrobras AGM: R$41.2B Dividends Approved
Investing guide: Investing in Brazil 2026: B3, Selic, Real Estate and Risks
This report is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Always consult a licensed financial advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Published by The Rio Times.