The Big Three
The Ibovespa fell 0.33% to 190,745.02 (−633.41 points) on Friday — the third consecutive decline and the second losing week — as the index bled lower on narrowing volume and deteriorating technicals. The session was quiet and directional: O:191,378, H:191,390 (barely above the open), L:189,963 (testing sub-190K for the first time since April 8), C:190,745. The MACD histogram deepened to −565.95 — more than double Thursday’s −260.60 — confirming the bearish regime shift. The three-day loss since B3 reopened from Tiradentes now totals 5,387 points (−2.75%) from the 196,132 Monday close. The index is 3.98% below the ATH and has now given back half of April’s gain: MTD at +1.75% (was +4.62% a week ago).
The dollar reversed sharply back below R$5.00 — closing at R$4.9793 (−0.90%) — confirming that Thursday’s R$5.0245 was a one-day overshoot, not a trend change. The move was the day’s most bullish signal: oil stayed above $96, the Ibovespa fell, and the dollar still dropped. RSI at 37.17 (signal: 33.14) pulled back from Thursday’s 41.87, and the MACD line returned to −0.0017 (just below zero). The structural carry-trade forces — 14.75% Selic, R$68B in foreign inflows, DXY weak — proved stronger than the oil spike. The dollar’s inability to sustain above R$5.00 even with oil at $96+ and the Ibovespa falling three days straight is the market telling you the real’s fundamentals are intact. The R$5.00 level has now been tested and rejected from above.
The Boletim Focus delivered the week’s most consequential domestic data: IPCA 2026 forecast raised to 4.80% (from 4.71%), Selic end-2026 raised to 13.00% (from 12.50%), while the dollar forecast fell to R$5.30 (from R$5.37). The inflation revision is the number that matters for the Copom on Monday: 4.80% is above the 4.50% ceiling of the target band, which constrains the BCB’s ability to cut aggressively even if oil drops. The Selic revision to 13.00% implies the market expects only 175bp of cuts from 14.75% through year-end — far less than the 225–250bp that the April rally had been pricing. Meanwhile, Trump is sending Witkoff and Kushner to Pakistan for talks with Iran’s foreign minister — the first confirmed high-level diplomatic engagement since the ceasefire extension. Lula underwent a minor procedure at Hospital Sírio Libanês for his right big toe.
01 Market Snapshot
| Indicator | Value | Change |
| Ibovespa Close | 190,745.02 | −0.33% (−633 pts) |
| Session Low | 189,962.93 | tested sub-190K |
| USD/BRL | R$4.9793 | −0.90% (back below R$5) |
| Week Performance | −2.75% | 2nd losing week |
| From ATH (198,657) | −7,912 pts | −3.98% |
| April MTD | +1.75% | was +4.62% last week |
| YTD | +18.38% | was +21.72% last week |
| Focus: IPCA 2026 | 4.80% | ↑ from 4.71% (above ceiling) |
| Focus: Selic 2026 | 13.00% | ↑ from 12.50% |
| Copom | Apr 28–29 | Monday–Tuesday |
02 Equities — Grinding Lower Into Copom
Today’s Ibovespa today report covers a session defined by exhaustion. The index drifted lower on thin volume, testing 189,963 intraday — the first time sub-190K has been touched since April 8. The close at 190,745 is above the worst but below every moving average that mattered during the rally. The MACD histogram at −565.95 has more than doubled in two sessions (from −260), confirming accelerating bearish momentum. This is The Rio Times’ continuing daily coverage of Brazil’s stock market and the broader Latin American financial markets.
The week’s arithmetic tells the story: the Ibovespa reopened from Tiradentes at 196,132 and closed Friday at 190,745 — a loss of 5,387 points (−2.75%) in three sessions. The correction from the ATH now totals 7,912 points (−3.98%). April’s MTD gain has shrunk from +4.62% to +1.75%. The YTD has fallen from +21.72% to +18.38%. The market is still positive for the month and massively positive for the year — but the trajectory has reversed.
The dollar’s reversal is the silver lining. From R$5.0245 (Thursday) to R$4.9793 (Friday) — a −0.90% drop — confirms that the structural carry-trade bid is stronger than the oil-driven stress. The real couldn’t hold above R$5 even with oil at $96+ and equities falling. This divergence favours the Copom: a dollar below R$5 gives the BCB more room to cut than a dollar above it. The Focus revision (IPCA to 4.80%, Selic to 13.00%) is hawkish for the cutting cycle but already priced — the market had been adjusting since oil crossed $95.
03 Dollar — R$5 Tested and Rejected From Above
From the chart: O:5.0245, H:5.0255, L:4.9778, C:4.9793 (−0.0452, −0.90%). The dollar round-tripped: above R$5 on Thursday, back below on Friday. The intraday low of R$4.9778 almost matched the April cycle lows. RSI at 37.17 (signal: 33.14) dropped from Thursday’s 41.87 bounce. MACD at −0.0017 — the line that briefly crossed positive on Thursday has reversed back below zero. The R$5.00 test-and-rejection is technically significant: it confirms that R$5 is now a ceiling for the dollar rather than a floor. Support: R$4.9793 (current) → R$4.9828 → R$4.8818 (chart floor). Resistance: R$5.0245 → R$5.0578 → R$5.0601 → R$5.1329.
04 Technical Analysis — Ibovespa Daily
From the chart: O:191,377.91, H:191,390.33, L:189,962.93, C:190,745.02 (−633.41, −0.33%). The candle is a red body with a long lower wick — the bounce from 189,963 to 190,745 suggests some dip-buying near the 190K psychological level. RSI at 64.26 (signal: 51.02) — the RSI divergence continues to widen, with the signal now firmly below the main line. The MACD histogram at −565.95 has more than doubled from −260.60 — accelerating bearish momentum on a decaying signal. The 200-day SMA at 159,786.86 remains 19.4% below.
Key levels from the chart: 191,471.89 (immediate resistance, Friday’s chart line) → 190,927.97 (now overhead) → 190,745.02 (close) → 189,963 (Friday low / 190K test) → 187,298.45 / 187,197.08 (Kijun/Tenkan convergence — major support) → 180,803.79 (deep). The Copom decision on Monday–Tuesday is the catalyst. A 25bp cut to 14.50% with dovish guidance could arrest the correction at 190K. A hawkish hold or hawkish 25bp opens the path to 187,197.
05 Key Levels
| Level | Ibovespa |
| ATH (Apr 14) | 198,657 |
| Cloud Top (resistance) | ~191,472 |
| Friday Close | 190,745 |
| 190K psychological / Fri low | 189,963 |
| Kijun / Tenkan convergence | 187,197 |
| Deep support | 180,804 |
| 200-Day SMA | 159,787 |
06 News in Focus
Boletim Focus: IPCA Raised to 4.80%, Selic to 13.00%
The BCB’s weekly Focus survey delivered a hawkish revision: IPCA 2026 forecast rose to 4.80% (from 4.71%), now above the 4.50% target ceiling, and the Selic end-2026 forecast jumped to 13.00% (from 12.50%). The dollar forecast, however, dropped to R$5.30 (from R$5.37) — consistent with the real’s outperformance. GDP 2026 was stable. The IPCA revision is the critical number for Monday’s Copom: with inflation expectations above ceiling and oil at $96+, a 50bp cut is off the table. The consensus 25bp cut to 14.50% is the base case, but the guidance language will determine whether the market interprets it as the start of an easing cycle or a one-and-done adjustment.
Witkoff and Kushner Sent to Pakistan — First High-Level Talks Confirmed
Trump is sending special envoy Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner to Pakistan for talks with Iran’s foreign minister — the first confirmed high-level diplomatic engagement since the ceasefire was extended on April 21. The move suggests the ceasefire is evolving from a unilateral Truth Social announcement to a negotiated process. Netanyahu simultaneously accused Hezbollah of sabotaging the Lebanon peace process, and Israel struck Hezbollah positions in southern Lebanon. The diplomatic-military dynamic remains contradictory: peace talks in Islamabad, strikes in Lebanon, oil at $96. For Brazil, the Witkoff-Kushner mission is mildly bullish — real negotiations could stabilize oil expectations ahead of the Copom.
Petrobras Fuel Gap Widens; Lula at Sírio Libanês
Petrobras has not adjusted gasoline prices in 88 days or diesel in 42 days. The ABICOM gap widened to −65% for gasoline (R$1.64 below international parity) and −50% for diesel (R$1.80 below). With oil at $96+, the gap is the widest since the war began — creating an implicit subsidy that suppresses near-term inflation but builds fiscal pressure. The market reads the gap as evidence that Petrobras is absorbing the oil shock rather than passing it through, which is dovish for IPCA but bearish for Petrobras margins. Separately, President Lula went to Hospital Sírio Libanês on Friday morning for a minor procedure on his right big toe — no market impact.
07 Looking Ahead
The Copom meeting on Monday–Tuesday is the only event that can arrest this correction. The decision (25bp cut to 14.50% is consensus) matters less than the comunicado: does the BCB signal a sustained easing cycle (bullish for equities, bearish for the dollar) or a cautious one-and-done (neutral-to-bearish)? With IPCA at 4.80% (above ceiling), oil at $96, and the dollar testing R$5, the BCB has every reason to cut cautiously. The market needs dovish guidance to stabilize. Without it, the path toward 187,197 (Kijun/Tenkan) opens.
The earnings calendar provides the second catalyst: Gerdau Q1 on Sunday/Monday (April 27), Vale Q1 on Tuesday (April 28), Suzano Q1 on Wednesday (April 29). Strong Vale numbers could stabilize the mining-heavy portion of the index. The Witkoff-Kushner Pakistan mission is the geopolitical wildcard — positive progress could push oil toward $90 and give the Copom more cover.
Key dates: Weekend — Witkoff-Kushner in Pakistan, Gerdau Q1 (April 27). Monday–Tuesday April 28–29 — Copom meeting, Vale Q1 (April 28). April 29 — Suzano Q1. May 5 — Itaú/Bradesco Q1. May 11 — Petrobras Q1.
08 Verdict
The week was unambiguously negative for equities — three consecutive declines, −2.75%, the MACD histogram at −566, and the index testing sub-190K — but the dollar told a different story. The real’s inability to stay above R$5.00 even with oil at $96+ and equities falling confirms that the structural carry-trade forces (14.75% Selic, R$68B inflows, weak DXY) are stronger than the cyclical headwinds (oil, Focus IPCA revision, foreign profit-taking). The equity correction is real, but the FX anchor holds.
Bias: Bearish equities, bullish real — Copom is the reset for both. The Ibovespa’s momentum is exhausted (MACD −566, RSI signal at 51, below the Ichimoku cloud) and the path of least resistance is toward 187,197. But the dollar at R$4.98 says the macro thesis isn’t broken — just repricing after a 7,900-point rally. The Copom decision on Monday–Tuesday will determine whether April ends as a 1.75% gain (correction within a trend) or worse (trend change). A dovish 25bp cut with easing-cycle guidance stabilizes equities and sends the dollar toward R$4.90. A hawkish 25bp or hold extends the correction and tests 187K. The Witkoff-Kushner Pakistan talks are the wildcard. The 190K level is the battleground. Copom answers everything.
Related coverage:
Thursday session: Ibovespa Falls to 191,378 as Dollar Breaks R$5
Wednesday session: Ibovespa Drops 1.65% on Petrobras Ex-Dividend
Ceasefire extension: Ibovespa Reopens Into Ceasefire Extension
Investing guide: Investing in Brazil 2026: B3, Selic, Real Estate and Risks
This report is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Always consult a licensed financial advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Published by The Rio Times.