The Big Three
The Ibovespa crashed 2.05% to 184,750.42 (−3,868 points) on Superquarta — the worst session of the war — as the Kijun at 187,197 broke and the index plunged to 184,504 intraday. Six-session decline totals 13,907 points (−7.00%) from the ATH. April turned negative at −1.45%. YTD collapsed from +21.72% to +14.66%. MACD histogram at −1,390, RSI signal at 38.54. This is no longer a correction — the Kijun break is a bearish breakdown.
Copom cut 25bp to 14.50% (unanimous) but raised its IPCA 2026 projection from 3.9% to 4.6% — now ABOVE the 4.5% ceiling — and Q4 2027 from 3.3% to 3.5%. The BCB is officially cutting while projecting above-ceiling inflation. No guidance for June. Focus IPCA at 4.9%. The Fed held at 3.50–3.75% in Powell’s final meeting. The comunicado was hawkish-neutral: cut delivered, inflation raised, “serenidade e cautela” maintained. The cutting cycle continues but is constrained.
The dollar closed at R$4.9947 — STILL below R$5 despite the worst equity crash of the war, $110 oil, and above-ceiling inflation. The real’s refusal to break is the only bull case left: 14.50% Selic carry, R$68B+ inflows, net oil exporter. The equity-FX divergence (−7% equities vs flat dollar) must resolve: either equities snapback or the real finally cracks.
01 Market Snapshot
| Indicator | Value | Change |
| Ibovespa Close | 184,750.42 | −2.05% (−3,868 pts) |
| Session Low | 184,504.18 | 2,693 pts below Kijun |
| USD/BRL | R$4.9947 | +0.01% · below R$5 |
| From ATH | −13,907 pts (−7.00%) | worst since war |
| April | −1.45% | turned negative |
| YTD | +14.66% | was +21.72% |
| Selic | 14.50% | cut 25bp |
| BCB IPCA 2026 | 4.6% | above 4.5% ceiling |
| Oil | ~$110 | war premium |
02 Session — The Worst Day of the War
Today’s Ibovespa today report covers the session that broke April. The index opened at 188,619, hit 188,710 (O ≈ H for the fourth straight day), then sold off relentlessly to 184,504 — a 4,206-point intraday range, the widest since February. The Kijun at 187,197 — tested to within 40 points on Tuesday — was smashed through without a bounce. The close at 184,750 is 2,447 points below the Kijun, confirming it as resistance for any future recovery. This is The Rio Times’ continuing daily coverage of Brazil’s stock market and the broader Latin American financial markets.
The selling was capitulatory. Oil surging above $110 removed any hope that the Copom could accelerate cuts. The Iran “missiles are not in negotiation” statement killed the ceasefire-stabilization thesis. The Focus IPCA at 4.9% confirmed de-anchoring. The Copom’s own IPCA revision above ceiling validated the hawkish consensus. Every macro variable aligned bearish simultaneously — and the market responded with the largest single-day point decline since the war began on February 28.
03 Copom: 14.50%, Inflation Above Ceiling, No Guidance
The Copom delivered what it signaled: 25bp cut to 14.50%, unanimous (6 of 9 directors — 3 absent due to expired mandates and bereavement). The comunicado raised the BCB’s IPCA projection for 2026 from 3.9% to 4.6% — the first time since the war that the central bank’s own forecast exceeds the target ceiling. The Q4 2027 horizon relevante rose from 3.3% to 3.5%, using a reference exchange rate of R$5.00. The BCB acknowledged inflation “distanciando-se adicionalmente da meta” and cited the “indefinição a respeito da duração, extensão, e desdobramentos dos conflitos geopolíticos.” No guidance for June. The next Copom: June 17–18.
04 Dollar — R$4.99, the Last Pillar
From the chart: O:4.9942, H:4.9947, L:4.9942, C:4.9947 (+0.0005, +0.01%). RSI at 40.59 (signal: 33.84). MACD at 0.0058. The real held below R$5 through the worst equity session of the war. The 14.50% Selic carry, the net oil exporter status, and R$68B in foreign inflows are the three anchors. If the dollar breaks R$5.05 decisively, the last bull case crumbles. If it holds below R$5.00, the equity correction is a buying opportunity — the kind that 14.66% YTD returns create once the panic subsides.
05 Technical Analysis — Ibovespa Daily
From the chart: O:188,618.69, H:188,709.96, L:184,504.18, C:184,750.42 (−3,868.27, −2.05%). Massive red candle, O = H for the fourth straight day. RSI at 60.53 (signal: 38.54) — 22-point divergence. MACD at 2,342 (signal: 952, histogram: −1,390). 200-day SMA at 160,534 (13.1% below). Key levels: 187,197 (Kijun, now resistance) → 184,750 (close) → 183,818 (next support) → 180,000 (psychological) → 160,534 (200-day SMA).
06 Looking Ahead
Today is the last session of April. The market must digest the Copom result (hawkish-neutral: cut delivered, inflation above ceiling, no guidance) and the Fed hold. The Copom cut should prevent further freefall — the rate reduction is real and 14.50% still supports the carry trade. But the IPCA revision above ceiling means the market can’t price an acceleration of cuts. The path is 25bp at a time, data-dependent, with oil as the key variable. Earnings continue: Suzano Q1 today, Itaú/Bradesco May 5, Petrobras May 11.
Key dates: Thursday April 30 — April’s last session, Suzano Q1. May 5 — Itaú/Bradesco Q1. May 11 — Petrobras Q1. June 17–18 — next Copom.
07 Verdict
The month that began with an ATH and ended with the worst crash of the war. From 198,657 to 184,750: −13,907 points, −7.00%, April at −1.45%. The Kijun broke. The MACD hit −1,390. The BCB projects inflation above ceiling. Oil is at $110. And the dollar is at R$4.99. That last number is the one that matters. If the real holds, the 14.66% YTD return is still intact, the carry trade continues, and the equity sell-off is an overshoot that May corrects. If the real breaks, April’s correction becomes May’s crisis.
Bias: Bearish equities, neutral dollar — the Copom cut prevents collapse, the inflation revision prevents recovery. The index is in no man’s land: below the Kijun (now resistance at 187,197), above the next support (183,818), and 13% above the 200-day SMA. The six-session capitulation may have exhausted the sellers — Wednesday’s 3,868-point crash has the characteristics of a panic flush. But until oil drops below $100 or the ceasefire produces a real agreement, the macro headwinds persist. The dollar at R$4.99 is the verdict: the market says the thesis is challenged, not broken. May will determine which reading is correct.
Related coverage:
Tuesday session: Ibovespa Tests 187,237 — 40 Points From the Kijun
Monday session: Ibovespa Breaks Below 190K
Copom preview: Ibovespa at 190,745: Copom Week
Investing guide: Investing in Brazil 2026: B3, Selic, Real Estate and Risks
This report is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Always consult a licensed financial advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Published by The Rio Times.