The Big Three
The Ibovespa fell 0.61% to 189,578.79 (−1,166.23 points) on Monday — the fourth consecutive decline — breaking below the 190,000 psychological level and closing at the session low for the second straight day. The index opened at 190,745, pushed briefly to 191,340, then sold off all day to close exactly at the low of 189,578. The close-at-low structure is the most bearish intraday pattern possible — it means there was no dip-buying, no late bounce, no stabilization. The MACD histogram deepened to −830.88 (from −566), the RSI signal crashed to 48.29 while the main RSI remains at 63.45 — a divergence that signals the main line is about to follow the signal sharply lower. The Ibovespa is now 4.57% below the ATH, 2,382 points above the Kijun/Tenkan at 187,197, and April’s MTD gain has shrunk to +1.13%.
The Boletim Focus raised IPCA 2026 for the seventh consecutive week — to 4.86%, from 4.80% — now 36 basis points above the target ceiling, while oil held near $96 and an Iranian source told Reuters the U.S. blockade is “undermining peace prospects.” The combination is toxic for the Copom: inflation expectations deteriorating, oil elevated, and the ceasefire fraying. The Focus also raised Selic end-2026 to 13.00% (from 12.50%), implying just 175bp of cuts through year-end. The dollar forecast fell to R$5.30 (from R$5.37) — the market expects the real to hold its strength even as the cutting cycle slows. The Copom decision arrives today: consensus is 25bp to 14.50%, but every basis point of the IPCA revision makes the comunicado’s guidance harder to write in dovish terms.
Gerdau reported Q1 lucro up 33.8% to R$1 billion and announced R$106 million in dividends — but the stock fell as the broader market dragged everything lower. Assaí’s lucro crashed 46.7% to R$86 million. JP Morgan raised PRIO3’s target to R$73 from R$55, reaffirming it as the top pick among Brazilian oil plays. USA Rare Earth bought Mineração Serra Verde in Goiás for $2.8 billion — the largest foreign acquisition of a Brazilian mineral asset since the war began, driven by U.S.-China rare-earth competition. Brazil’s dívida pública fell 2.34% to R$8.633 trillion in March but the cost of rollover rose — reflecting the war-driven uncertainty in sovereign bond markets. Vale reports Q1 today. The market is positioned for the Copom, not for earnings.
01 Market Snapshot
| Indicator | Value | Change |
| Ibovespa Close (= Low) | 189,578.79 | −0.61% (−1,166 pts) |
| USD/BRL | R$4.9829 | flat · below R$5 · no panic |
| From ATH (198,657) | −9,079 pts | −4.57% |
| To Kijun/Tenkan (187,197) | 2,382 pts | 1.26% away |
| April MTD | +1.13% | was +4.62% two weeks ago |
| YTD | +17.66% | was +21.72% |
| Focus: IPCA 2026 | 4.86% | ↑ 7th week (above ceiling) |
| Brent / Oil | ~$96 | Iran: blockade “undermining peace” |
| Copom Decision | Today (Tue PM) | 25bp to 14.50% expected |
02 Equities — Close at the Low, Fourth Decline, Copom Day
Today’s Ibovespa today report covers a session that left no room for optimism. The index opened at 190,745, attempted 191,340 in the first hour — and then sold off relentlessly into the close at 189,578, which was also the session low. The close-at-low pattern for the second straight day means institutional sellers are not letting up, and there is no dip-buying at these levels. This is The Rio Times’ continuing daily coverage of Brazil’s stock market and the broader Latin American financial markets.
The selling was driven by the Focus IPCA revision to 4.86% — the seventh consecutive weekly increase, now 36bp above the target ceiling — combined with oil holding near $96 and an Iranian senior source telling Reuters that the U.S. blockade is “undermining peace prospects” and that Tehran’s missile programme is “not in negotiation.” The geopolitical overlay is simple: if Iran won’t negotiate its missiles, the ceasefire has a ceiling. If the ceasefire has a ceiling, oil has a floor. If oil has a floor at $95+, the Copom’s cutting cycle has a ceiling. Every link in this chain runs through the Ibovespa.
Vale fell 0.52% to R$85.44. Petrobras rose 0.74% to R$47.53 — the only major blue-chip in green, supported by oil. Itaú fell 0.47%. Gerdau traded lower despite reporting Q1 lucro up 33.8% to R$1 billion — the earnings beat couldn’t overcome the macro headwind. Assaí’s lucro crash (−46.7%) confirmed the consumer-facing weakness that high interest rates are inflicting. The session volume was slightly above average — this is active selling, not passive drift.
03 Dollar — R$4.98, Still the Anchor
From the chart: O/H/L/C: 4.9829 (flat doji). The dollar’s non-reaction to a four-session equity decline totaling 6,554 points (from 196,132 to 189,579) remains the market’s most important signal. RSI at 37.77 (signal: 32.74). MACD at 0.0020 — hovering near zero, no directional conviction. The real at R$4.98 with oil at $96 and the Ibovespa falling 4.57% from ATH is extraordinary: the carry trade (14.75% Selic) and the foreign inflow base (R$68B YTD) are holding the currency even as equities correct. The Copom decision today will determine whether the dollar tests R$4.90 (dovish cut) or R$5.05 (hawkish hold).
04 Technical Analysis — Ibovespa Daily
From the chart: O:190,745.13, H:191,339.93, L:189,578.79, C:189,578.79 (−1,166.23, −0.61%). Fourth consecutive red candle, each closing lower than the last, each closing at or near the low. RSI at 63.45 (signal: 48.29) — the divergence is extreme and the main RSI will snap lower within 1–2 sessions. MACD at 2,950.32 (signal: 2,119.43, histogram: −830.88) — the histogram has deepened from −260 → −566 → −831 in three sessions. The 200-day SMA at 160,038 is 18.5% below.
Key levels: 191,814 (resistance, Friday’s chart line) → 190,832 (Mon open area) → 189,579 (close/low) → 187,371 / 187,197 (Kijun/Tenkan convergence — THE level) → 181,875 (deep). The Kijun at 187,197 is now just 2,382 points (1.26%) below the close. At the current pace of decline (~900 pts/day average over 4 sessions), the Kijun could be tested by Wednesday or Thursday. The Copom decision tonight is the binary: dovish = bounce; hawkish = Kijun test.
05 Key Levels
| Level | Ibovespa |
| ATH (Apr 14) | 198,657 |
| Monday High | 191,340 |
| Monday Close (= Low) | 189,579 |
| Kijun / Tenkan (major support) | 187,197 |
| Deep support | 181,875 |
| 200-Day SMA | 160,038 |
06 News in Focus
Focus: IPCA Rises to 4.86% — Seventh Straight Increase
The BCB’s Boletim Focus raised the median IPCA 2026 forecast to 4.86% (from 4.80%) — the seventh consecutive weekly increase. The number is now 36bp above the 4.50% target ceiling and approaching the critical 5% threshold that would force the BCB into a fundamentally different posture. The Selic end-2026 forecast rose to 13.00% (from 12.50%), and the 2027 forecast rose to 11.00%. Dollar forecast fell to R$5.30. GDP was stable. The Focus trajectory is the Copom’s biggest constraint: with expectations de-anchoring upward, a dovish comunicado becomes harder to justify even if the committee delivers the expected 25bp cut.
Gerdau Q1: Lucro +33.8%, Assaí: −46.7% — Earnings Season Begins
Gerdau reported Q1 lucro líquido ajustado of R$1 billion, up 33.8% YoY, and announced R$106 million in dividends. The numbers were solid — driven by steel pricing and export volumes — but the stock traded lower as the macro environment overwhelmed the micro result. Assaí’s Q1 lucro crashed 46.7% to R$86 million, with Ebitda flat at R$1.025 billion. The consumer-facing names are being crushed by 14.75% Selic — Assaí’s result is the canary in the coal mine for retail and food distribution. Vale reports Q1 today and is the next test: iron ore weakness versus cost discipline and dividend expectations.
Iran: “Missile Programme Not in Negotiation” — Ceasefire Ceiling Confirmed
A senior Iranian source told Reuters that the U.S. blockade is “undermining peace prospects” and that Tehran’s “defensive capabilities, including its missile programme, are not in negotiation.” The statement confirms what oil has been pricing: the ceasefire is a pause, not a resolution. If missiles are off the table, the structural issues that caused the war remain unresolved, which means oil retains a permanent war premium. JP Morgan raised PRIO3’s target to R$73 (from R$55) — the top pick among Brazilian oil plays — implicitly endorsing the thesis that oil stays elevated for longer. USA Rare Earth’s $2.8 billion purchase of Mineração Serra Verde in Goiás adds a rare-earth dimension to Brazil’s resource story.
07 Copom Preview — The Most Constrained Cut in Years
The Copom’s decision tonight is the most constrained since the war began. The committee must balance: IPCA expectations at 4.86% (above ceiling, 7th week rising), oil at $96 (war premium persistent, Iran won’t negotiate missiles), dollar at R$4.98 (structurally strong real, which is disinflationary), an equity market that has fallen 4.57% from ATH (financial conditions tightening on their own), and Gerdau/Vale earnings that show corporate strength beneath the macro stress.
The consensus is 25bp to 14.50%. The question is the comunicado. Three scenarios: (A) Dovish 25bp — signals further cuts ahead, says the current level is “sufficiently restrictive,” flags the real’s strength and external risks. This stabilizes equities and sends the dollar toward R$4.90. (B) Hawkish 25bp — cuts but signals a pause, says “vigilance” on inflation, cites Focus de-anchoring. This extends the equity correction and holds the dollar at R$5.00. (C) Hold at 14.75% — the shock scenario. This would crash equities toward 187K immediately but could re-anchor expectations. The market assigns ~80% probability to Scenario A, ~15% to B, ~5% to C.
08 Looking Ahead
The Copom decision arrives today (Tuesday evening, after B3 closes). Vale Q1 also reports today. The market will trade Tuesday’s session in anticipation of both — positioning for the comunicado’s tone. If the pre-market signals lean dovish (DI futures falling, dollar weakening), the index could bounce toward 191K before the decision. If hawkish (DIs rising), the index tests 188K and approaches the Kijun at 187,197.
Key dates: Tuesday April 28 — Copom decision (PM), Vale Q1. Wednesday April 29 — market reacts to Copom, Suzano Q1. May 5 — Itaú/Bradesco Q1. May 11 — Petrobras Q1.
09 Verdict
Four consecutive declines. 9,079 points given back from the ATH. Close at the low for two straight days. MACD histogram at −831. IPCA at 4.86%. Oil at $96. Iran won’t negotiate missiles. The Ibovespa is grinding lower into the Copom with the worst technical setup and the tightest macro constraints since the war began. And yet — the dollar is at R$4.98. The real refuses to break. The carry trade holds. The foreign inflow base hasn’t cracked. The correction is real, but the structural thesis isn’t dead.
Bias: Bearish until the Copom speaks — then it depends entirely on the comunicado. A dovish 25bp cut with easing-cycle guidance is the only thing that arrests this correction at 189K. Without it, the Kijun at 187,197 comes into play — which would erase the entire April gain. The dollar at R$4.98 is the market’s vote of confidence that the BCB gets this right. If it does, the index bounces hard. If it doesn’t, the equity-FX divergence finally snaps and both sell off together. Tonight is the most important Copom since the war began. The index at 189,579 is the price of uncertainty. The comunicado determines the price of resolution.
Related coverage:
Friday session: Ibovespa at 190,745: Third Loss, Dollar Back Below R$5
Thursday session: Ibovespa at 191,378: MACD Negative, Dollar Breaks R$5
Petrobras AGM: Petrobras AGM: R$41.2B Dividends Approved
Investing guide: Investing in Brazil 2026: B3, Selic, Real Estate and Risks
This report is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Always consult a licensed financial advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Published by The Rio Times.