Global Economy Briefing — April 14, 2026
Global economy briefing: S&P 500 erases Iran war losses despite Islamabad collapse. Trump blockades Hormuz. China credit misses badly.
This global economy briefing covers Monday, April 13 — the most paradoxical session of the war. The Islamabad talks collapsed over the weekend. Trump ordered a naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. WTI surged above $104 and the Dow fell 400 points at the open. Then Trump said Iran had “called” and “wants a deal very badly,” 34 ships passed through the Strait — the most since the closure began — and markets staged an extraordinary reversal. The S&P 500 closed up 1.02% at 6,886.24, erasing every single day of losses since the war began on February 28. The Nasdaq gained 1.23%, Oracle surged 13%, and Palantir added 3%. China delivered a credit miss across every metric — new loans, social financing, M2 — while Australia’s NAB business confidence plunged to -29, the worst since the pandemic. Existing home sales fell to 3.98 million, the lowest since the housing freeze began. India’s CPI cooled to 3.40%, beating consensus. The market is pricing in peace over every piece of data that argues otherwise. As covered in our April 11 global economy briefing, the weekend’s Islamabad talks were the binary event — and the market chose to look through the failure. This is part of The Rio Times’ daily global economy briefing for the Latin American financial community.
The Big Three
The S&P 500 erased every day of war losses, closing +1.02% at 6,886.24 — its highest since before the February 28 conflict began — despite the Islamabad talks collapsing and Trump ordering a naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. The Dow swung from -400 to +301.68, finishing at 48,218.25. The Nasdaq gained 1.23% to 23,183.74. Oracle surged 13% and Palantir rose 3% as software stocks rebounded on Goldman Sachs’ positive AI outlook. The reversal was triggered by Trump saying Iran had “called” and “wants a deal very badly,” plus confirmation that 34 ships passed through the Strait — the highest single-day count since the closure. WTI settled at $99.08 (+2.6%) after touching $104+; Brent closed at $99.36 (+4%). Fundstrat’s Tom Lee compared the moment to the 1942 market bottom.
China’s March credit data missed across every metric: new loans at 2,990 billion yuan (consensus 3,465B), total social financing at 5,230 billion (consensus 5,400B), M2 growth slowing to 8.5% (consensus 8.9%), and outstanding loan growth at 5.8% (consensus 5.9%). The credit impulse is fading even as Beijing maintains its easing stance. This follows last week’s CPI miss at 1.0% and the Caixin services PMI collapse to 52.1. China’s trade surplus then halved to $51.13 billion in March (consensus $107.2B) as exports grew just 2.5% (consensus 8.3%) while imports surged 27.8% (consensus 11.1%). The export collapse confirms the Hormuz-driven disruption to global trade routes is hitting China’s manufacturing exporters hard.
Australia’s NAB business confidence crashed to -29 from 0 — the single largest monthly plunge on record and the worst reading since the pandemic lockdowns. Westpac consumer sentiment collapsed 12.5% in April, the steepest monthly decline in years. Business conditions held at 6, meaning firms are still operating but have completely lost faith in the outlook. The Australian data is the clearest case study of how the energy war is destroying confidence in commodity-exporting economies that should, in theory, benefit from higher prices. The UK’s BRC retail sales monitor surged to 3.1% year-on-year (consensus 0.9%), the week’s only unambiguously positive consumer reading.
Economic Dashboard
| INDICATOR | ACTUAL | EXPECTED | PREVIOUS | VERDICT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| China New Loans (Mar) | 2,990B | 3,465B | 900B | ▼ Miss |
| China Total Social Financing (Mar) | 5,230B | 5,400B | 2,380B | ▼ Miss |
| China M2 Money Supply YoY (Mar) | 8.5% | 8.9% | 9.0% | ▼ Tightening |
| China Trade Balance USD (Mar) | $51.1B | $107.2B | $213.6B | ▼ Halved |
| China Exports YoY (Mar) | 2.5% | 8.3% | 21.8% | ▼ Collapse |
| China Imports YoY (Mar) | 27.8% | 11.1% | 19.8% | ▲ Surge |
| US Existing Home Sales (Mar) | 3.98M | 4.07M | 4.13M | ▼ Miss |
| India CPI YoY (Mar) | 3.40% | 3.48% | 3.21% | ▲ Below Fear |
| Australia NAB Business Confidence (Mar) | −29 | — | 0 | ▼ Record Crash |
| Australia Westpac Consumer Sent. (Apr) | −12.5% | — | 1.2% | ▼ Plunge |
| UK BRC Retail Sales YoY (Mar) | 3.1% | 0.9% | 0.7% | ▲ Blowout |
| Portuguese CPI YoY (Mar) | 2.7% | 2.7% | 2.1% | ● Inline |
| Canada Building Permits MoM (Feb) | −8.4% | −0.4% | 3.5% | ▼ Collapse |
| German 12M Bubill Auction | 2.517% | — | 2.270% | ▲ Repricing |
| Goldman Sachs Q1 Earnings | FICC Miss | — | Record EQ | ● Mixed |
Europe
Portuguese CPI Confirms Bloc Trend, Bubills Reprice, UK Retail Shocks to Upside
Portuguese CPI confirmed at 2.7% year-on-year for March, inline with consensus and matching the flash reading from two weeks ago. Monthly CPI was 2.0% — a sharp jump from 0.1% in February — confirming that the energy pass-through has fully reached the Iberian periphery. Portuguese CPI now matches German CPI at 2.7%, the eurozone flash at 2.5%, and Italian CPI at 1.7%, forming a coherent picture of inflation accelerating from south to north across the bloc. The Bundesbank released its monthly report while ECB Vice President De Guindos spoke twice during the session.
German Bubill auctions repriced sharply: the 12-month cleared at 2.517% (prior 2.270%) and the 6-month at 2.310% (prior 2.121%). French BTF auctions, by contrast, ticked marginally lower across all three tenors — 3-month at 2.248%, 6-month at 2.448%, 12-month at 2.634% — suggesting the ceasefire had modestly eased French short-end risk. The divergence between German Bubills repricing higher and French BTFs easing slightly reflects the market’s view that Germany faces an energy-inflation problem (rates should stay higher) while France faces a growth-deficit problem (rates should ease).
The UK delivered the session’s positive surprise: BRC retail sales surged 3.1% year-on-year in March, massively beating the 0.9% consensus and accelerating from 0.7%. This is the strongest BRC reading in months and suggests that UK consumers — perhaps aided by falling energy prices early in the ceasefire period — are more resilient than their European counterparts. The reading contradicts last week’s Halifax house price decline of -0.5% and the services PMI slip to 50.5, creating a mixed UK picture.
European equities rallied alongside Wall Street, shrugging off the Islamabad failure. The OPEC monthly report was released during the session, providing updated supply and demand projections in the context of the Hormuz disruption. Goldman Sachs kicked off earnings season with a -1.9% stock decline despite record equities revenue of $4.7 billion, as FICC revenue disappointed. The earnings season’s tone will be set by how companies guide for Q2 amid the war uncertainty — and whether the ceasefire narrative holds.
Verdict
The UK’s BRC blowout at 3.1% is the first evidence that the ceasefire’s oil price drop is already benefiting consumers in real time — and it happened within five days of the truce. If the Strait reopens meaningfully, European consumer data could snap back faster than the confidence surveys suggest. But the Bubill repricing says bond markets aren’t buying the recovery story yet. Goldman’s FICC miss signals that the war’s volatility premium may be fading — bad news for bank trading desks, good news for the real economy.
United States
S&P Erases War Losses in History’s Most Counterintuitive Rally
The session’s price action was extraordinary. Futures fell 1% overnight after Trump announced the Hormuz blockade. The Dow opened down 400 points. WTI surged above $104. Then, in a sequence that now defines this war, Trump told reporters that Iran had “called” his administration — “We’ve been called by the other side… they’d like to make a deal very badly” — and markets reversed violently. The S&P 500 finished +1.02% at 6,886.24, its highest close since before February 28. The Dow ended +301.68 at 48,218.25. The Nasdaq gained 1.23% to 23,183.74.
The rally’s composition was telling. Oracle surged 13% — its best day in seven months — on a Goldman Sachs upgrade of the software sector, driven by AI infrastructure spending reaccelerating. Palantir gained 3%, and the broader tech sector led the advance. JonesTrading’s Michael O’Rourke attributed the move to “oil retracement, in combination with bearish positioning.” The 34 ships passing through Hormuz — confirmed by Trump — was arguably more important than the deal rhetoric: it suggests Iran is allowing partial transit even during the blockade, which materially reduces the tail risk of a complete oil cutoff.
Existing home sales fell to 3.98 million annualized in March, missing the 4.07 million consensus and down 3.6% from February’s 4.13 million. The housing market remains frozen under 6.5%+ mortgage rates and war-driven uncertainty. The 3- and 6-month bill auctions cleared marginally lower at 3.620% and 3.610%, suggesting the short-end is pricing in some easing. IMF meetings began, providing a forum for global finance officials to coordinate on the energy crisis response.
The market’s message is now unmistakable: equities have decided the war will end favorably. The S&P 500 has erased six weeks of conflict losses in nine trading days. Whether this reflects genuine intelligence about Iran’s willingness to deal, or simply the “TACO” trade (Trump Always Chickens Out) reaching its logical conclusion, the positioning is one-way bullish. CFTC data from Friday showed S&P net shorts expanding — meaning the institutional money is still hedging even as the market rises. That divergence between price and positioning is either a spring coiling for a breakout, or a market running on hope that is about to meet reality.
Verdict
The S&P erasing all war losses is either the market’s finest moment of forward-looking wisdom or its greatest act of collective denial. GDP at 0.5%, Michigan at 47.6, existing home sales at 3.98M, real earnings at -0.9% — the data says the economy is wounded. The market says the wound is healing. The 34-ship Hormuz transit is the key fact: if shipping normalizes, oil drops to $80 and the entire macro picture transforms. If Iran tightens the chokehold again, the S&P at 6,886 will look like the top. Earnings season starts this week — Q1 guidance will resolve the debate.
Asia-Pacific
China Credit Misses Everywhere, Exports Collapse, Australia Confidence Crashes
China’s March credit data was a clean sweep of misses. New loans at 2,990 billion yuan fell short of the 3,465 billion consensus. Total social financing at 5,230 billion missed the 5,400 billion expected. M2 money supply growth slowed to 8.5% from 9.0%, missing the 8.9% consensus. Outstanding loan growth decelerated to 5.8% from 6.0%. The credit impulse — the key driver of Chinese economic momentum — is fading at the worst possible time. The data suggests that despite the PBOC’s easing stance, demand for credit is weakening as the trade disruption hits corporate confidence.
China’s March trade data was even more alarming. Exports grew just 2.5% year-on-year, collapsing from 21.8% and catastrophically missing the 8.3% consensus. The trade surplus halved to $51.13 billion from $213.62 billion, missing the $107.2 billion consensus by more than 50%. Imports surged 27.8% (consensus 11.1%), driven by frontloading of energy and commodity purchases as the Hormuz crisis disrupted supply chains. The import surge reflects panic buying, not genuine demand strength. China’s trade model has been upended: exports blocked by disrupted shipping routes, imports inflated by emergency energy stockpiling.
Australia delivered the session’s most shocking confidence data. NAB business confidence crashed from 0 to -29 — a 29-point single-month collapse, the largest in the survey’s history and the worst absolute reading since April 2020. Westpac consumer sentiment plunged 12.5% in April, the steepest monthly decline in years, reversing a 1.2% gain. Business conditions held at 6, meaning actual business activity hasn’t collapsed yet but expectations have cratered. Australia’s economy is caught between commodity-export windfalls and the consumer cost-of-living crisis — and Monday’s data shows the crisis is winning the confidence battle.
India continued to outperform: CPI came in at 3.40% year-on-year, below the 3.48% consensus, confirming India’s inflation resilience. New Zealand visitor arrivals surged 15.2%, and permanent migration rose to 3,970 — positive signals for a tourism-dependent economy. Asian markets opened sharply lower on the Islamabad collapse but recovered as Trump’s deal rhetoric and the 34-ship Hormuz transit calmed nerves. The week ahead features key Asian data and earnings, with Delta Air Lines kicking off the travel sector tomorrow.
Verdict
China’s data package is the worst of the war. Credit missing, exports collapsing, trade surplus halving — this is the real-economy cost of the Hormuz disruption for the world’s largest trading nation. Australia’s NAB at -29 is the confidence equivalent of a recession forecast. India at 3.40% CPI remains the structural outperformer. The China trade collapse is the single most important data point for global growth expectations: if Chinese exports can’t get through, everyone downstream suffers. The PBOC will need to act aggressively — expect a rate cut or RRR reduction within weeks.
Latin America & Africa
BCB Focus Readout Looms, IPCA Fallout Continues, Copom Binary
The BCB Focus Market Readout was released Monday — the weekly survey of economist expectations that directly informs the Copom’s April 28-29 decision. After Friday’s hot IPCA at 4.14% (consensus 4.00%), Focus consensus inflation expectations likely rose, narrowing the window for a rate cut. The Ibovespa rallied alongside global markets, with the familiar trade: Petrobras under pressure from oil dropping from $104 to $99, while banks and domestics surged on revived rate-cut hopes. The S&P 500’s erasure of war losses pulled EM risk appetite with it.
The Copom decision calculus has shifted again. With WTI at $99 (down from $111 a week ago) and 34 ships passing through Hormuz, the BCB could argue that the energy shock is dissipating and resume easing. But the IPCA at 4.14%, IGP-DI at +1.14%, and Fipe at 0.59% are all March data — they capture the war’s damage, not the ceasefire’s relief. The BCB must decide whether to look backward at the inflation data or forward at the oil price trajectory. History suggests central banks look backward — which argues for a hold.
China’s export collapse to 2.5% is directly relevant to LatAm: China is Brazil’s largest trading partner, and a Chinese trade slowdown reduces demand for iron ore, soybeans, and other Brazilian commodities. The China trade surplus halving from $213 billion to $51 billion signals a global trade contraction that will hit LatAm export revenues in Q2. Canada’s building permits crashed 8.4% (consensus -0.4%), adding to the North American construction slump flagged in Europe’s data last week. For the latest Ibovespa analysis, see our market report.
The broader LatAm picture is of a region caught between two forces: the oil price drop from $111 to $99 (positive for rate-cut expectations) and the IPCA-led inflation acceleration (negative for rate-cut execution). The resolution depends entirely on whether the ceasefire produces a durable deal. If oil drops to $85 by April 28, the BCB cuts. If oil is back above $105, the BCB holds. There is no middle ground — as analyzed in our April 11 briefing, the Copom decision is binary and oil-contingent.
Verdict
The Focus readout is now the most important domestic release for Brazilian rates. If Focus 2026 IPCA expectations rose above 4.3%, the BCB’s credibility requires a hold on April 28-29 regardless of oil. China’s export collapse is the second-order risk: weaker Chinese demand for Brazilian commodities could reduce the trade surplus that has supported the real. The Ibovespa at war-high levels with the S&P erasing all losses feels premature — but markets have consistently priced peace ahead of evidence, and have been rewarded so far.
Trades & Tilts
→ The S&P at 6,886 has priced in peace — any escalation from here triggers an outsized selloff because the hedge is gone; maintain VIX call protection at strike 30 as the asymmetric downside hedge
→ China’s export collapse to 2.5% and trade surplus halving are the most bearish global growth signals of the week — short copper as a proxy for Chinese manufacturing weakness; long soybeans if Brazil redirects supply from China to food-deficit regions
→ The 34-ship Hormuz transit is the key variable — if daily transits exceed 50 by next week, oil breaks below $90 and the entire reflation trade (energy stocks, commodities, inflation hedges) reverses; track shipping data daily
→ Australia’s NAB at -29 argues against the AUD rally — the currency benefited from commodity prices but confidence has collapsed; short AUD/JPY as a relative-value expression of the confidence divergence between Australia (crisis) and Japan (recovering)
→ Goldman’s FICC miss signals peak war-volatility earnings — bank trading revenues will decline as the ceasefire compresses vol; avoid adding to bank positions ahead of JPMorgan and Citi earnings this week; rotate to tech where Oracle’s 13% day signals AI capex re-acceleration
Previously: Global Economy Briefing — April 11, 2026 · Global Economy Briefing — April 10, 2026 · Sources: Trading Economics · CNBC Markets · Fortune · The Rio Times
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