This global economy briefing covers Thursday, April 9 — the day reality checked the ceasefire euphoria. The S&P 500 extended its winning streak to seven days (+0.6%), its longest since October, but the rally was built on shaky ground. Q4 GDP was revised down to 0.5% from the prior 0.7% estimate, personal income fell 0.1% (consensus +0.3%), initial jobless claims jumped to 219,000 (missing 210K), and ADNOC’s CEO declared that the Strait of Hormuz is “not open” — access is being “restricted, conditioned, and controlled” by Iran despite the ceasefire. WTI surged above $100 intraday before settling at $97.87 (+3.6%). Core PCE held at 3.0% year-on-year, in line but still a full percentage point above the Fed’s target. Japan’s household confidence crashed to 33.3 (consensus 38.3), German industrial production missed, and China’s CPI slowed to 1.0%. VP Vance is heading to Islamabad this weekend for direct talks with Iran. As covered in our April 9 global economy briefing, the ceasefire is a trade, not a trend change — and Thursday confirmed it. This is part of The Rio Times’ daily global economy briefing for the Latin American financial community.
The Big Three
Q4 GDP was revised down to 0.5% from 0.7%, personal income fell 0.1% (consensus +0.3%), and real consumer spending grew just 0.1% — the weakest US growth data in over a year. GDP sales slowed to 0.3% from 4.5% in Q3. Real consumer spending was revised to 1.9% from 2.0%. The GDP price index came in at 3.7%, meaning the economy is growing below its inflation rate — the technical definition of stagflation. Corporate profits rose 5.7%, the sole bright spot, but that was Q4 data from before the war. The Atlanta Fed GDPNow held at 1.3% for Q1, unchanged. Wholesale inventories surged 0.8% versus a -0.5% consensus, a destabilizing buildup that could weigh on Q2.
“The Strait of Hormuz is not open. Access is being restricted, conditioned, and controlled. That is not freedom of navigation. That is coercion.” — Sultan Ahmed Al Jaber, CEO of ADNOC. Despite Wednesday’s ceasefire euphoria, Iran is maintaining its chokehold on the Strait, requiring Iranian armed forces coordination for any transit. WTI surged above $100 intraday before settling at $97.87 (+3.6%). Brent closed at $95.92 (+1.2%). Goldman Sachs trimmed its Q2 Brent forecast to $90 and WTI to $87, but the ADNOC statement suggests those numbers may be too optimistic. VP Vance heads to Islamabad this weekend for direct Iran talks.
Global consumer confidence collapsed in April: Japan’s household confidence plunged to 33.3 (consensus 38.3), the worst since the pandemic, while PCSI surveys fell in every major economy except India and China. France’s PCSI cratered to 38.08, Germany to 41.80, UK to 43.30, Japan to 37.70, Korea to 44.86, Australia to 46.04, Brazil to 49.22. Only India (66.17, up from 57.26) and China (74.60) improved. The war has delivered a synchronized global confidence shock — and even with the ceasefire, the damage is baked into Q2 consumer behavior.
Economic Dashboard
| INDICATOR | ACTUAL | EXPECTED | PREVIOUS | VERDICT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| US GDP QoQ (Q4 Final) | 0.5% | 0.7% | 4.4% | ▼ Miss |
| US Core PCE YoY (Feb) | 3.0% | 3.0% | 3.1% | ● Inline |
| US Personal Income MoM (Feb) | −0.1% | 0.3% | 0.4% | ▼ Shock |
| US Initial Jobless Claims | 219K | 210K | 203K | ▼ Miss |
| US Wholesale Inventories MoM (Feb) | 0.8% | −0.5% | −0.3% | ▲ Glut |
| US Corporate Profits QoQ (Q4) | 5.7% | — | 4.7% | ▲ Improving |
| German Industrial Production MoM (Feb) | −0.3% | 0.6% | 0.0% | ▼ Miss |
| German Exports MoM (Feb) | 3.6% | 1.0% | −1.5% | ▲ Strong Beat |
| Spanish Industrial Production YoY (Feb) | −1.1% | 1.5% | −0.2% | ▼ Miss |
| Japan Household Confidence (Mar) | 33.3 | 38.3 | 39.7 | ▼ Crash |
| Japan PPI YoY (Mar) | 2.6% | 2.4% | 2.1% | ▲ Hot |
| China CPI YoY (Mar) | 1.0% | 1.2% | 1.3% | ▼ Deflationary |
| Colombia CPI YoY (Mar) | 5.56% | 5.47% | 5.29% | ▲ Hot |
| Bank of Korea Rate Decision | 2.50% | 2.50% | 2.50% | ● Hold |
| Argentina Industrial Production YoY (Feb) | −8.7% | — | −3.3% | ▼ Deepening |
Europe
German IP Misses Again, Exports Surge, Spain Cracks, Confidence Craters
German industrial production fell 0.3% month-on-month in February, missing the 0.6% consensus — the second consecutive miss after Wednesday’s factory orders disappointment. Year-on-year output was flat at 0.0% versus the prior -0.65%. Germany’s industrial recession is not over; the factory orders and IP misses paint a picture of an economy that cannot produce even when orders eventually come. However, German exports surged 3.6% (consensus +1.0%), the strongest reading in months, and the trade surplus held at 19.8 billion (beating 18.1 billion consensus). The divergence — weak production, strong exports — suggests inventory drawdowns rather than new production.
Spanish industrial production collapsed to -1.1% year-on-year, missing the +1.5% consensus by a staggering 2.6 percentage points and reversing the -0.2% prior. This is a dramatic shift for Spain, whose services PMI beat at 53.3 just two days ago. The manufacturing-services divergence is widening across Europe: services hold on tourism and consumption, but factories are shutting. Portuguese trade deficit widened to -7.95 billion from -7.46 billion. German car registrations surged 16.0% year-on-year, the strongest reading in months, suggesting pre-purchase pull-forward before expected price increases.
The PCSI consumer confidence surveys released for April were devastating across Europe. France plunged to 38.08 from 42.03, Germany fell to 41.80 from 44.73, Italy dropped to 43.12 from 47.53, and the eurozone composite collapsed to 47.16 from 51.21. The UK fell to 43.30 from 46.00. These readings — all well below 50 — show that the Sentix crash from Tuesday was not an anomaly but part of a synchronized European confidence collapse. Spanish bond auctions repriced sharply: 3-year at 2.734% (prior 2.404%), 5-year at 3.476% (prior 2.934%), 10-year at 3.435%. Italian 12-month BOTs cleared at 2.604% (prior 2.372%).
South Africa’s manufacturing production fell 2.2% month-on-month and 2.8% year-on-year, a sharp reversal from the +1.9% prior, while FX reserves dropped to $77.76 billion from $81.06 billion — a $3.3 billion drawdown likely reflecting SARB intervention. The UK’s BoE Credit Conditions Survey was released, with mortgage rates ticking up to 6.60% from 6.59%.
Verdict
Two days of German data tell the story: factory orders at +0.9% (missing 3.0%) and IP at -0.3% (missing +0.6%). The export beat is a red herring — you can’t sustain strong exports without producing more. Spanish IP’s 2.6-point miss is the new front in Europe’s industrial crisis. The PCSI collapse below 50 everywhere except South Africa confirms the confidence damage is continental, not regional. The ceasefire arrived too late to prevent Q2 consumer retrenchment.
United States
GDP 0.5%, Income Negative, PCE at 3.0% — The Stagflation Print
The Q4 GDP final revision was the headline: 0.5% annualized, down from the second estimate of 0.7% and a dramatic deceleration from Q3’s 4.4%. GDP sales growth — which strips out inventories and trade — slowed to 0.3% from 4.5%. Real consumer spending was revised to 1.9% from 2.0%. The GDP price index was 3.7%, meaning prices rose more than seven times faster than the economy grew. This is the stagflation data point the FOMC minutes warned about one day earlier. Corporate profits rose 5.7% quarter-on-quarter, providing a temporary cushion for equities but reflecting conditions that pre-date the war.
The February personal income and spending report was the bigger shock. Personal income fell 0.1%, missing the +0.3% consensus — the first decline since mid-2024 and a direct challenge to the “resilient consumer” narrative. Personal spending rose 0.5% (consensus 0.6%), but real spending — adjusted for prices — grew just 0.1%. Core PCE was in line at 0.4% MoM and 3.0% YoY, easing from 3.1%. Headline PCE held at 2.8% YoY. The Dallas Fed’s trimmed-mean PCE collapsed to 1.80% from 2.70%, the lowest reading in years and a hopeful sign that underlying inflation pressure is actually easing beneath the energy noise.
Initial jobless claims jumped to 219,000, missing the 210,000 consensus and snapping a multi-week streak of sub-210K prints. Continuing claims fell to 1,794,000 (beating 1,840K), suggesting that while more people are being laid off, those already unemployed are finding jobs. Wholesale inventories surged 0.8% versus -0.5% expected, a massive inventory buildup that could weigh on GDP going forward. Wholesale trade sales rose 2.7%, suggesting the buildup reflects genuine restocking, not just demand weakness. Natural gas storage injected 50 billion cubic feet (consensus 41B).
The S&P 500 extended its winning streak to seven days (+0.6%), its longest since October, carried by ceasefire momentum rather than the data. The 30-year bond auction cleared at 4.876% (prior 4.871%), essentially flat despite the rally, signaling that long-end investors are not buying the de-inflation trade. The 4-week bill auction dropped to 3.560% from 3.620%. Netanyahu’s announcement of direct Lebanon negotiations provided an additional positive headline. The Dow turned positive for 2026 for the first time since the war began.
Verdict
GDP at 0.5% with the price index at 3.7% is the stagflation print the market chose to ignore. Personal income going negative while PCE stays at 3.0% means the consumer is losing purchasing power. The seven-day rally is running on ceasefire hope, not data — and the data says the economy was decelerating before the war even started. The Dallas Fed trimmed-mean PCE at 1.80% is the only genuinely dovish data point in the entire release. The Vance-Islamabad talks this weekend are now the macro event of the quarter.
Asia-Pacific
Japan Confidence Crashes to 33.3, China CPI Misses, BoK Holds, PPI Runs Hot
Japan’s household confidence plunged to 33.3 from 39.7, catastrophically missing the 38.3 consensus — a 6.4-point single-month drop and the worst reading since the pandemic. This follows Wednesday’s Economy Watchers crash to 42.2. The two surveys together confirm that the Japanese consumer has been devastated by the energy shock. Japan’s PPI surged to 2.6% year-on-year (consensus 2.4%, prior 2.1%), with MoM at 0.8%, confirming that producer prices are accelerating even as consumer confidence collapses — the clearest stagflation signal in Asian data. Bank lending rose 4.8% (consensus 4.4%), suggesting credit is still flowing but may reflect forced borrowing to cover energy costs rather than productive investment.
China’s March CPI slowed to 1.0% year-on-year (consensus 1.2%), with the monthly reading collapsing to -0.7% (consensus -0.2%). China is the only major economy where deflation risk persists during the war — domestic demand remains weak despite the official PMI’s return above 50. PPI turned positive at 0.5% year-on-year (consensus 0.4%, prior -0.9%), the first positive reading since the conflict began, driven by energy and commodity input costs. Japan’s machine tool orders surged 28.1% year-on-year, up from 24.2%, signaling strong capex demand that contrasts with the consumer weakness.
The Bank of Korea held at 2.50% as expected, maintaining its cautious stance. The BoK faces the same dilemma as the Fed: growth is slowing but energy inflation prevents cuts. Peru’s central bank also held at 4.25%, as expected. South Africa’s FX reserves dropped $3.3 billion to $77.76 billion, and net reserves fell to $73.187 billion — a parallel to China’s $86 billion drawdown reported earlier this week, highlighting how EM central banks are burning reserves to defend currencies against the oil shock.
The PCSI consumer confidence surveys painted a grim picture: Japan crashed to 37.70 from 42.42, Korea fell to 44.86 from 49.99, Australia dropped to 46.04 from 50.63. Only India (66.17, up 9 points from 57.26) and China (74.60 from 72.46) improved. India’s surge likely reflects the RBI hold and domestic resilience; China’s reflects base effects and government stimulus rather than genuine consumer optimism. Australia’s building approvals held at +29.7% MoM as expected from the previous flash reading.
Verdict
Japan’s consumer data is now in crisis territory — household confidence at 33.3 and Economy Watchers at 42.2 represent the worst readings since 2020. PPI at 2.6% means costs are still rising for producers who can’t pass them through to a retreating consumer. China’s deflation continues despite the war — a structural demand problem that no ceasefire fixes. The PCSI collapse is global and synchronized: only India and China buck the trend, and for very different reasons. The BoK and Peru holds are prudent but may not last if oil re-escalates.
Latin America & Africa
Colombia CPI Hot, Argentina IP Crashes, Mexico Holds, Peru Pauses
Colombia’s March CPI came in at 5.56% year-on-year, above the 5.47% consensus and accelerating from 5.29%. Monthly CPI was 0.78% (consensus 0.69%). PPI surged to 2.80% year-on-year from 1.10%, with MoM at 1.70% versus 0.20%. This validates last week’s 100bp emergency rate hike to 11.25% — and suggests more may be needed. The energy pass-through to Colombian consumers is accelerating, and the PPI surge signals that pipeline pressures are building, not dissipating. The ceasefire helps, but March’s data is already in the books.
Argentina’s industrial production crashed 8.7% year-on-year in February, a dramatic deepening from the -3.3% prior. Milei’s austerity program is delivering its intended fiscal correction at the cost of devastating industrial output. Mexico’s CPI came in at 4.59% year-on-year (consensus 4.61%), with core easing to 4.45% (consensus 4.46%) — both marginally better than expected. Monthly CPI was 0.86% (consensus 0.88%). Banxico’s minutes were released simultaneously, likely showing debate over the pace of further easing from 6.75%. Mexico’s consumer confidence slipped to 44.1 from 44.4.
Peru held rates at 4.25% as expected, maintaining its neutral stance. Brazil’s PCSI fell to 49.22 from 52.24 — below the 50 threshold that divides optimism from pessimism. The Ibovespa continued its ceasefire rally, with the key dynamic being the Petrobras-vs-everything trade: oil at $97.87 still supports PETR3/PETR4 earnings, but the decline from $111 reopens the rate-cut narrative for banks and domestics. For the full analysis, see our latest Ibovespa market report.
The LatAm monetary policy landscape is clarifying: Colombia is in emergency mode at 11.25%, Mexico is cautiously easing at 6.75%, Brazil is on hold at 14.75% waiting for oil resolution, Peru is neutral at 4.25%, and the BoK paused at 2.50%. The ceasefire gives every LatAm central bank a two-week window to reassess. If oil stabilizes below $95, the entire regional easing narrative revives. If the ceasefire collapses, Colombia’s 100bp template becomes the standard. The Vance-Islamabad talks define the trade. As discussed in our April 9 briefing, this remains conditional relief.
Verdict
Colombia’s CPI and PPI acceleration proves the 100bp hike was necessary — and may not be the last. Argentina’s -8.7% IP is the cost of Milei’s fiscal correction in real time. Mexico’s slight inflation beat gives Banxico cover for continued easing, but the margin is razor-thin. Brazil’s PCSI below 50 is new — the Brazilian consumer has turned pessimistic for the first time in the war. The ceasefire is the lifeline, but March data across LatAm shows the damage was deep, fast, and not yet finished flowing through.
Trades & Tilts
→ ADNOC says Hormuz is “not open” — the ceasefire is a diplomatic framework, not a shipping reality; WTI at $97.87 is mispriced if tankers don’t actually flow this weekend; buy May WTI calls at $105 as a hedge against ceasefire failure
→ GDP at 0.5% with personal income negative is the stagflation print — but Dallas Fed trimmed-mean PCE at 1.80% says underlying inflation is actually easing; the two signals argue for a Fed hold through September, then a cut if oil normalizes
→ The seven-day equity rally is exhausted on data — GDP miss, claims miss, income miss; the S&P is running on hope, not fundamentals; take profits on cyclicals above S&P 6,800 and rotate into defensive quality
→ Japan household confidence at 33.3 is a buy signal for Japanese consumer stocks IF the ceasefire holds and oil drops below $90 — the snapback in consumer sentiment would be violent; long Japanese retailers into the two-week window
→ Colombia’s CPI at 5.56% and PPI at 2.80% argue against any near-term easing — short COP and stay away from Colombian duration until oil definitively breaks below $90 and the energy pass-through fades
Previously: Global Economy Briefing — April 9, 2026 · Global Economy Briefing — April 8, 2026 · Sources: Trading Economics · CNBC Markets · Schwab · The Rio Times
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