Brazil’s Financial Morning Call for Friday, May 15, 2026
S&P 7,500 ATH · Dow 50,000 · Nasdaq 26,635 ATH · Ibovespa +0.72% First Bounce · BRL Back Below R$5.00 · Nvidia $5.7T · Cerebras IPO +89% · Trump-Xi: Hormuz Must Stay Open · Silver −6% · Warsh Day 1 · War Day 76
Today's Focus
The S&P Broke 7,500, the Dow Retook 50,000, and the Ibovespa Bounced for the First Time in Seven Sessions
The S&P 500 surged 0.77% to close above 7,500 for the first time in history, the Dow Jones retook 50,000 for the first time since the Iran war began in February, and the Nasdaq reached a new all-time high at 26,635, per Trading Economics. Nvidia’s market capitalization hit a record $5.7 trillion after a 4.4% gain following US approval for 10 Chinese firms to purchase H200 chips, per Yahoo Finance. Cerebras Systems debuted at $350 per share versus its $185 listing price — a 89% first-day pop in the largest US semiconductor IPO on record ($5.55 billion), surpassing Arm Holdings’ 2023 raise, according to Yahoo Finance. The Ibovespa bounced 0.72% to 178,365.86, its first positive session in seven trading days and the first Open = Low structure since May 6, per B3 data. The BRL fell back below R$5.00 to R$4.9837, reclaiming the structural carry level one session after breaking it.
President Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping met for over two hours in Beijing and agreed that the Strait of Hormuz “should remain a free waterway” and that Iran “should not be able to impose payments on shipping traffic,” per the Wall Street Journal citing a White House readout. Secretary of State Rubio told NBC News the US was “not asking China for help with Iran.” Xi warned Trump that mishandling Taiwan would cause “clashes and even conflicts,” per NBC News citing China’s foreign ministry. Silver crashed 6.13% to $78.38 — the sharpest single-day decline since the war’s opening week — while gold fell 1.71% to $4,572.50, per TradingView.
Friday: Brazil Service Sector (08:00 BRT). NY Empire State Mfg (08:30 ET, cons: 7.30). US Industrial Production (09:15, cons: +0.3%). Colombia GDP Q1 (12:00, cons: +2.2%). Japan Machine Tool Orders beat at +45.1%. Italian CPI. ECB Bulletin. Baker Hughes. CFTC. Trump-Xi summit day 2. Warsh’s first full day as Fed chair. Weekly close determines whether the bounce holds or the correction resumes. War Day 76.
Three Things That Matter
| Yesterday |
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| Overnight |
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| Today |
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The AI Trade Sent Three US Indices to Records While the Ibovespa Found Its Floor
Thursday’s session had two distinct narratives running in parallel. In the US, the S&P 500 climbed 0.8% to cross 7,500 for the first time, and the Nasdaq rose 0.9% to an all-time high of 26,635, while the Dow added 0.75%, crossing 50,000 for the first time since February, per Trading Economics. The catalyst was AI euphoria: Nvidia surged 4.4% to a record $5.7 trillion market cap after the US cleared 10 Chinese firms to receive H200 chips during Trump’s Beijing visit, per Yahoo Finance. Cerebras began trading under the ticker CBRS, surging above its $185 IPO price to open at $350 — the largest semiconductor IPO in US history at $5.55B raised, per Yahoo Finance. Cisco jumped 13.4% after raising revenue guidance on AI-driven networking demand, per TheStreet. The Trump-Xi summit produced a consequential joint statement: both leaders agreed the Strait of Hormuz “should remain a free waterway” and that Iran should not impose shipping payments, per the Wall Street Journal. This is the first time China has publicly aligned with the US position on Hormuz since the war began.
In Brazil, the Ibovespa snapped its seven-session losing streak with a +0.72% bounce to 178,365.86, per B3 data. The Open = Low structure at 177,104 was the first buyer-controlled session since May 6 — the day the 14-point MOU crashed oil. The intraday high at 179,476 suggests initial resistance near 179.5K. The BRL fell back below R$5.00 to R$4.9837, per ICE — recovering the structural carry level just one session after losing it. The precious metals complex was the session’s biggest casualty: silver crashed 6.13% to $78.38 (O:83.49, L:77.54) and gold fell 1.71% to $4,572.50, per TradingView. The selloff in metals reflects the “risk-on” rotation — capital flowing from haven assets to AI/tech equities as the Trump-Xi alignment on Hormuz reduced geopolitical tail risk. Brent held near $101, WTI near $97.
Market Snapshot AS OF THU, MAY 14 CLOSE
| Indicator | Close / Level | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Ibovespa | 178,365.86 | +0.72% FIRST BOUNCE IN 7 (B3) |
| USD/BRL | R$4.9837 | Back below R$5.00 (ICE) |
| S&P 500 | ~7,500 | +0.77% FIRST >7,500 ATH |
| Dow Jones | 50,063 | +0.75% ABOVE 50K (1st since Feb) |
| Nvidia | $5.7T mkt cap | +4.4% RECORD (Yahoo Finance) |
| Gold | $4,572.50 | −1.71% (TradingView) |
| Silver | $78.38 | −6.13% CRASH (TradingView) |
| Bitcoin | $80,376 | −0.86% (TradingView) |
Ibovespa Bounced to 178,366 but Remains 10.2% Below the ATH
Thursday: O:177,103.81, H:179,475.97, L:177,103.81, C:178,365.86 (+0.72%, +1,267.57), per B3 data. Open = Low for the first time since May 6. MACD: −1,051.55/−1,476.80/−2,528.35 — the histogram at −2,528 is still the deepest of the cycle, indicating the bounce has not yet altered the bearish regime. RSI at 41.40, signal at 34.19 — the signal remains at war-era lows despite the bounce. The correction stands at 20,292 points (10.2%) from the 198,658 ATH.
Resistance: 178,366 (Thu close) → 179,476 (Thu high) → 180,342 → 182,731 → 187,197 (Kijun).
Support: 177,104 (Thu low/open) → 176,787 (Wed low) → 175,943 → 162,953 (200-day SMA).
Copom Watch SELIC 14.50% · NEXT: JUNE 17-18
Live Market IntelligenceBrazil Morning Call — Live Board
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Brazil Morning Call — Live Board
-0.03%
173,325.65
-0.03%
66,125.27
-0.74%
10,954.04
+0.52%
3,281,979
+1.81%
2,301.34
+0.13%
56,620.35
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| Instrument | Last | Change | YoY | Prev. | High | Low | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IBOV | 173,325.65 | -0.03% | +29.19% | 173,371.35 | 173,720 | 172,219 | — |
| USD/BRL | 5.07 | -0.31% | -8.83% | 5.09 | 5.07 | 5.07 | — |
| EUR/BRL | 5.79 | -1.19% | -11.03% | 5.85 | 5.79 | 5.78 | — |
| SELIC | 14.25% | — | — | — | — | — | |
| BRENT | 91.56 | +2.62% | +32.29% | 89.22 | 91.78 | 91.51 | 179 |
| WTI | 84.65 | +1.71% | +25.97% | 83.23 | 84.91 | 84.56 | 2,929 |
| IRON ORE | 161.91 | — | +65.48% | 161.91 | 161.91 | 1 | |
| GOLD | 4,085 | +1.87% | +20.09% | 4,010 | 4,089 | 4,081 | 2,557 |
| SILVER | 59.18 | +4.18% | +51.34% | 56.80 | 59.23 | 59.03 | 332 |
| LITHIUM | 69.08 | +3.23% | +57.32% | 66.92 | 69.35 | 68.35 | 339,090 |
| SOY | 1,224 | -0.20% | +20.54% | 1,226 | 1,224 | 1,222 | 1,017 |
| CORN | 475.00 | +5.67% | +17.65% | 449.50 | 475.25 | 474.75 | 746 |
| WHEAT | 678.25 | +0.63% | +25.08% | 674.00 | 679.50 | 678.25 | 225 |
| COFFEE | 322.80 | -3.47% | +8.60% | 334.40 | 335.40 | 320.75 | — |
| SUGAR | 14.90 | +0.54% | -8.98% | 14.82 | 14.97 | 14.76 | — |
| ORANGE JUICE | 142.30 | -3.46% | -56.52% | 147.40 | 149.90 | 141.50 | — |
| COTTON | 80.03 | +3.44% | +20.27% | 77.37 | 81.75 | 79.75 | 9,915 |
| BEEF | 223.05 | -1.53% | -0.97% | 226.52 | 224.68 | 221.98 | 19,662 |
| CATTLE | 344.88 | -2.02% | +5.27% | 352.00 | 348.05 | 343.20 | 7,785 |
| COCOA | 5,606 | +1.56% | -31.27% | 5,520 | 5,733 | 5,405 | — |
| PETR4 | 41.66 | +1.24% | +34.17% | 41.15 | 41.70 | 41.13 | 38,572,100 |
| VALE3 | 72.24 | +0.43% | +28.88% | 71.93 | 72.97 | 71.57 | 12,569,000 |
| SUZB3 | 41.63 | -0.62% | -18.37% | 41.89 | 42.01 | 41.44 | 2,360,700 |
| KLABIN | 17.59 | +0.63% | -5.25% | 17.48 | 17.66 | 17.36 | 3,095,700 |
| SLCE3 | 13.75 | +1.33% | -14.49% | 13.57 | 13.76 | 13.54 | 1,787,500 |
| ABEV3 | 15.80 | +0.06% | +17.73% | 15.79 | 15.90 | 15.74 | 19,626,800 |
| ITUB4 | 42.53 | +0.54% | +23.47% | 42.30 | 42.58 | 42.18 | 9,818,100 |
| BBDC4 | 18.55 | +0.76% | +18.30% | 18.41 | 18.64 | 18.35 | 19,389,500 |
| BBAS3 | 20.88 | +3.52% | +5.14% | 20.17 | 20.88 | 20.08 | 25,242,800 |
| B3SA3 | 15.17 | -0.59% | +15.80% | 15.26 | 15.32 | 14.95 | 29,232,900 |
| WEGE3 | 42.47 | -1.53% | +1.19% | 43.13 | 43.34 | 42.46 | 8,926,800 |
| PRIO3 | 58.18 | +0.85% | +36.06% | 57.69 | 58.96 | 58.11 | 4,481,400 |
| RENT3 | 36.55 | -2.51% | +2.04% | 37.49 | 37.51 | 36.52 | 7,496,100 |
| AZZA3 | 17.48 | -3.80% | -50.80% | 18.17 | 18.27 | 17.30 | 1,739,300 |
| CSNA3 | 5.06 | -0.20% | -36.67% | 5.07 | 5.16 | 5.04 | 9,037,000 |
| GGBR4 | 23.49 | -0.55% | +41.34% | 23.62 | 23.77 | 23.42 | 4,028,600 |
| ENEV3 | 25.42 | -0.90% | +84.20% | 25.65 | 25.66 | 25.12 | 4,079,900 |
| LREN3 | 13.27 | -0.30% | -24.04% | 13.31 | 13.41 | 13.12 | 8,623,200 |
The June 17-18 decision is 33 days away. The BRL’s return below R$5.00 on Thursday is marginally supportive, but the structural picture has deteriorated since the ata: Focus IPCA at 5.02% (9th consecutive rise), IPCA April at 4.41% YoY, PPI at 6.0%, and 30Y yields above 5% all constrain the Copom’s room. The market is pricing the June cut as no better than 50/50. Terminal Selic estimates have shifted from Genial’s 13.25% toward 14.00% as the consensus. The next Focus survey (May 18) and May IPCA-15 (due late May) are the remaining data points before June.
Economic Calendar FRIDAY, MAY 15
| Time | Event | Impact |
|---|---|---|
| 04:00 ET | Italian CPI Apr (cons: 2.8% YoY / 1.2% MoM). Italian HICP (cons: 2.9%). ECB Economic Bulletin | HIGH |
| 08:00–08:30 ET | Brazil Service Sector Mar (08:00 BRT, prev: +0.5% YoY / +0.1% MoM). NY Empire State Mfg May (08:30, cons: 7.30 vs prev 11.00) | HIGH |
| 09:15 ET | US Industrial Production Apr (cons: +0.3% MoM vs prev −0.5%). Manufacturing Production (cons: +0.2%). Capacity Utilization (cons: 75.8%) | HIGH |
| 11:00–12:00 ET | Colombia Industrial Production Mar (11:00, cons: +1.8%). Colombia Retail Sales (cons: +10.1%). Colombia GDP Q1 (12:00, cons: +2.2% YoY / +0.7% QoQ) | HIGH |
| 13:00 ET | Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count (prev: 410). CFTC Positioning (15:30 — BRL specs prev: +66.8K) | MEDIUM |
Latin America Markets THURSDAY CLOSE
| Index | Close | Chg | RSI |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ibovespa | 178,366 | +0.72% | 41.40 |
| IPC Mexico | 69,207 | −1.40% | 51.47 |
| MERVAL | 2,747,310 | +0.33% | 44.69 |
| IPSA Chile | 10,482 | +0.82% | 46.14 |
| COLCAP | 2,122 | +2.34% | 38.57 |
| BTC/USD | $80,376 | −0.86% | 62.74 |
Four of five LatAm indices bounced on Thursday, led by Colombia’s COLCAP (+2.34%) snapping its own multi-session losing streak. The Ibovespa (+0.72%), MERVAL (+0.33%), and IPSA (+0.82%) all recovered. Mexico’s IPC was the sole decliner (−1.40%) on profit-taking after its run above 70K. The regional breadth is tentatively improving, but RSI signal levels remain at or near war-era lows across the board — the bounce is a relief rally, not a confirmed reversal. As covered in the latest LATAM Pulse, the Trump-Xi Hormuz alignment is the most constructive geopolitical development for LatAm energy-importing economies since the ceasefire attempt.
Positioning BOTTOM LINE
The Ibovespa bounced 0.72% to 178,366 after seven consecutive losses that took it from 187,691 to 177,098 (−10,593 points, −5.6% in a week). The S&P crossed 7,500 and the Dow retook 50,000 on AI euphoria and the Trump-Xi Hormuz alignment. The BRL fell back below R$5.00, recovering the structural carry level. Silver crashed 6.13% and gold fell 1.71% as haven demand rotated to risk. The bounce is real but unconfirmed — the MACD histogram at −2,528 is still the deepest of the cycle, and RSI signal at 34.19 remains at war-era lows.
Friday is a light data day — the weekly close is what matters. The Ibovespa needs to hold 178K+ and ideally retest 179.5K (Thursday’s high) to confirm the bounce as more than a dead-cat reaction. The BRL below R$5.00 is the necessary condition for the carry trade’s survival. The S&P above 7,500 provides the global tailwind. The Trump-Xi Hormuz statement reduces geopolitical tail risk — but the deal with Iran remains unsigned, the truce on “life support” per Trump, and Brent still at $101. The correction from the ATH (now 10.2%) is the deepest of 2026 but has stabilized at the first hint of constructive geopolitics.
Bias: Cautiously constructive on the weekly close, with 177K as the floor. A green Friday that holds 178K+ and pushes the BRL toward R$4.97 would be the first positive weekly signal in three weeks. A red Friday that breaks Thursday’s 177,104 low reopens the path to 175K. The Warsh era begins. The AI trade is ascendant. The war continues, but China just aligned with the US on Hormuz for the first time. Something shifted Thursday — the question is whether it holds.
Frequently Asked Questions
What did Trump and Xi agree on regarding Hormuz?
President Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping agreed during their Beijing summit that the Strait of Hormuz “should remain a free waterway” and that Iran “should not be able to impose payments on shipping traffic,” per a White House readout cited by the Wall Street Journal on May 14. Secretary of State Rubio told NBC News the US was “not asking China for help with Iran.” This is the first time China has publicly aligned with the US position on Hormuz since the war began on February 28.
What was the Cerebras IPO?
Cerebras Systems, an AI chipmaker that produces the largest commercial chip ever made (about the size of an iPad), debuted on Nasdaq on May 14 under ticker CBRS. The stock priced at $185 and opened trading at $350 — an 89% first-day pop. The IPO raised $5.55 billion, making it the largest US semiconductor IPO on record (surpassing Arm Holdings’ 2023 listing) and the largest IPO of 2026, per Yahoo Finance and Bloomberg data.
Why did silver crash 6%?
Silver fell 6.13% to $78.38 on May 14, the sharpest single-day decline since the war’s opening week, per TradingView data. Gold also dropped 1.71% to $4,572.50. The precious metals selloff reflected a “risk-on” rotation as capital moved from haven assets to AI/tech equities following the Trump-Xi Hormuz alignment and the Cerebras IPO euphoria. The S&P 500 crossing 7,500 and Nvidia hitting $5.7 trillion further reduced the demand for defensive positioning.
Is the Ibovespa’s correction over?
The Ibovespa bounced 0.72% to 178,366 on May 14, its first positive session in seven trading days, per B3 data. However, the correction from the 198,658 ATH still stands at 10.2% (20,292 points). The MACD histogram at −2,528 remains the deepest of the cycle, and the RSI signal at 34.19 is at war-era lows. A confirmed reversal requires the index to reclaim 180K and hold it for multiple sessions. The bounce is a relief rally, not yet a trend change.
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