Brazil’s Financial Morning Call for Tuesday, May 12, 2026
CPI Day · IPCA Day · Petrobras Q1 Webcast · Ibovespa 181,909 New Low · S&P 7,413 ATH · Trump Rejected Iran Proposal · BRL R$4.89 · Warsh in 3 Days · War Day 73
US CPI, Brazil IPCA, and Petrobras Q1 Webcast Converge on the Ibovespa’s Deepest Correction of the War
The Ibovespa fell another 1.19% to 181,908.87 on Monday — a new correction low that extends the selloff to 16,749 points (8.4%) from the 198,658 all-time high, according to B3 data. The S&P 500 simultaneously closed at a record 7,412.84, its first finish above 7,400, per CNBC. The divergence between US records and the Ibovespa’s deepest correction of the war is now the widest of 2026. Petrobras released Q1 2026 earnings after Monday’s close — the results price into today’s session alongside the Petrobras webcast at 11:00 BRT. President Trump rejected Iran’s latest counterproposal on Monday, stating the terms were “unacceptable,” per CNBC, sending Brent back above $101.
The data calendar makes Tuesday the most consequential single session for inflation since the war began. US CPI at 08:30 ET (consensus: +0.6% MoM / +3.7% YoY, core +0.3% / +2.7%) is the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge and lands three days before Warsh’s Senate confirmation vote as Fed chair. Brazil IPCA for April at 08:00 BRT (consensus: +0.70% MoM / +4.41% YoY) is the Copom’s target variable and the first full-month print since the Copom cut to 14.50%. The Focus survey released Monday showed IPCA 2026 expectations rising for a ninth consecutive week to 5.02%, per BCB data. The BRL at R$4.8865 is at a new multi-year low. Today: IPCA (08:00 BRT). US CPI (08:30 ET). Petrobras Q1 webcast (11:00 BRT). German ZEW (05:00 ET). FOMC Williams (03:15 ET). Fed Goolsbee (13:00 ET). IEA STEO (12:00 ET). 10Y Note Auction (13:00 ET). Warsh May 15 (3 days). War Day 73.
Three Things That Matter
| Yesterday | Ibovespa −1.19% to 181,909 — NEW CORRECTION LOW (B3). O:184,103, H:184,530, L:181,615, C:181,909. 8.4% below ATH. S&P 500 +0.19% to 7,413 — FIRST CLOSE ABOVE 7,400, ATH (CNBC). Nasdaq +0.10% to 26,274 ATH. Dow +95 to 49,704. Trump rejected Iran’s latest proposal as “unacceptable” (CNBC). Iran had sent new counterproposal. Brent rose to ~$101. Focus IPCA 2026: 5.02% — 9th consecutive rise (BCB). Petrobras Q1 released after close — cons: rev $26.2B, EPS $0.93 (Zacks). Record production 3.23M bpd. Webcast today. USD/BRL R$4.8865 (−0.02%). MERVAL +2.31%. IPC Mexico +0.56%. IPSA −0.53%. COLCAP −0.64%. BTC $81,251. German CPI 2.9% YoY (in-line) |
| Overnight | German CPI Apr confirmed: +2.9% YoY (in-line). German HICP +2.9% (in-line). S&P 500 futures flat. Brent near $101 in Asian trade. FOMC Williams speaks 03:15 ET — first Fed comment before CPI. Iran deal status: stalled after Trump rejection. Warsh confirmation vote May 15 (3 days). Japan leading indicators due. India CPI Apr (cons: 3.80%) |
| Today | BRAZIL IPCA APR (08:00 BRT, cons: +0.70% MoM / +4.41% YoY). US CPI APR (08:30 ET, cons: +0.6% MoM / +3.7% YoY). US Core CPI (cons: +0.3% MoM / +2.7% YoY). PETROBRAS Q1 WEBCAST (11:00 BRT). German ZEW Sentiment (05:00 ET, cons: −19.1). FOMC Williams (03:15). IEA Short-Term Energy Outlook (12:00 ET). WASDE Report. US NFIB Small Business (06:00, cons: 96.0). Mexico Industrial Production (08:00, cons: −1.5%). Italian Industrial Production (04:00). Fed Goolsbee speaks (13:00 ET). US 10Y Note Auction (13:00). Federal Budget Balance (14:00). API Crude (16:30). ECB Elderson speaks. Warsh May 15 (3 days). War Day 73 |
The Ibovespa Set a New Correction Low at 181,909 as the Petrobras Paradox Deepened
Monday: O:184,102.86, H:184,530.15, L:181,614.83, C:181,908.87 (−1.19%, −2,199.42), per B3 data. The correction from the 198,658 ATH has now reached 16,749 points (8.4%) — the deepest pullback of 2026. The intraday low at 181,615 is the lowest level since late March. MACD: main line at 42.23, signal at −1,255.84, histogram at −1,298.08 per TradingView — the bearish crossover is fully confirmed, with the main line approaching zero. RSI at 46.67, signal at 37.42 — both declining, confirming the downtrend is accelerating. The session marked the third new correction low in five sessions (183,218 on Thursday, 181,909 on Monday). Meanwhile the S&P 500 closed at 7,412.84 — a new record, per CNBC. The divergence is the Petrobras paradox in its purest form: as yesterday’s Morning Call explained, the deal that benefits the world harms Brazil’s largest stock.
Resistance: 181,909 (Monday close) → 184,108 (Friday close) → 185,552 → 187,197 (Kijun) → 198,658 (ATH).
Support: 181,615 (Monday low) → 179,910 (next Ichimoku from chart) → 162,290 (200-day SMA).
US CPI and Brazil IPCA Land Simultaneously in the Most Important Inflation Session of the War
Brazil IPCA at 08:00 BRT (consensus: +0.70% MoM / +4.41% YoY) is the Copom’s target variable and arrives after nine consecutive Focus survey increases pushed expectations to 5.02%, per BCB data released Monday. A print at or below consensus would confirm the IPCA-15’s soft surprise pattern (0.89% vs 1.00% cons in April) and keep the June 17-18 cut viable. A print above 0.80% would signal the oil pass-through is accelerating and would likely push the DI curve to price a June pause.
US CPI at 08:30 ET (consensus: +0.6% MoM / +3.7% YoY, core +0.3% / +2.7%) lands three days before Kevin Warsh’s Senate confirmation as Fed chair. A hot CPI (>0.7% MoM or >3.8% YoY) would be the strongest hawkish signal entering the Warsh era and would send the 10Y yield toward 4.50%, pressuring all EM. A soft CPI (<0.5% MoM) would validate the oil-reversal disinflationary thesis and support global risk. The CPI print determines whether the Warsh Fed inherits a hiking or holding mandate.
The Petrobras Q1 webcast at 11:00 BRT completes the triple catalyst. The financial results released after Monday’s close will be dissected by CEO Magda Chambriard and CFO Fernando Melgarejo, with simultaneous English translation. The key questions: forward guidance on Brent assumptions, capex adjustments, dividend policy, and whether management signals resilience in a $90-100 Brent world or flags revenue risk. The results themselves are expected strong (Q1 Brent averaged $95-$126) — but forward guidance is what the market reprices. The Rio Times’ production report confirmed record 3.23M bpd output.
Market Snapshot AS OF MON, MAY 11 CLOSE
| Indicator | Close / Level | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Ibovespa | 181,908.87 | −1.19% NEW LOW (8.4% from ATH) |
| USD/BRL | R$4.8865 | −0.02% (below R$4.89) |
| S&P 500 | 7,412.84 | +0.19% ATH · FIRST >7,400 (CNBC) |
| Nasdaq | 26,274.13 | +0.10% ATH (CNBC) |
| Brent Crude | ~$101 | Rebounded on Trump rejection |
| Focus IPCA 2026 | 5.02% | 9TH CONSECUTIVE RISE (BCB) |
| Bitcoin | $81,251 | −0.59% (TradingView) |
Economic Calendar TUESDAY, MAY 12
| Time | Event | Impact |
|---|---|---|
| 03:15–05:00 ET | FOMC Williams speaks (03:15). Italian IP (04:00, cons: 0.2%). German ZEW Economic Sentiment May (05:00, cons: −19.1). ZEW Current Conditions (cons: −77.5). South Africa Unemployment | HIGH |
| 08:00 BRT | BRAZIL IPCA APR (cons: +0.70% MoM / +4.41% YoY vs prev +0.88% / +4.14%). Mexico IP (cons: −1.5% YoY) | CRITICAL |
| 08:30 ET | US CPI APR (cons: +0.6% MoM / +3.7% YoY). US Core CPI (cons: +0.3% MoM / +2.7% YoY). Real Earnings. ADP Weekly | CRITICAL |
| 11:00 BRT | PETROBRAS Q1 WEBCAST — CEO Chambriard + CFO Melgarejo. Forward guidance on Brent assumptions, capex, dividends | CRITICAL |
| 12:00–13:00 ET | IEA Short-Term Energy Outlook (12:00). WASDE Report. Fed Goolsbee speaks (13:00). US 10-Year Note Auction (13:00). BoE Woods speaks (13:30) | HIGH |
| 14:00–16:30 ET | Federal Budget Balance Apr (14:00, cons: +37.5B). API Weekly Crude (16:30, prev: −8.1M) | MEDIUM |
Latin America Markets MONDAY CLOSE
| Index | Close | Change | RSI | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ibovespa (Brazil) | 181,908.87 | −1.19% | 46.67 | New Low |
| IPC (Mexico) | 70,246.30 | +0.56% | 58.53 | Above 70K |
| MERVAL (Argentina) | 2,833,120 | +2.31% | 48.34 | Neutral |
| IPSA (Chile) | 10,702.13 | −0.53% | 49.29 | Neutral |
| COLCAP (Colombia) | 2,109.15 | −0.64% | 38.95 | Oversold |
Positioning BOTTOM LINE
Tuesday is the most data-dense session since the war began: Brazil IPCA (08:00 BRT), US CPI (08:30 ET), and Petrobras Q1 webcast (11:00 BRT) all on the same day. The Ibovespa enters at 181,909 — its deepest correction level, 8.4% below the ATH — while the S&P sits at a record 7,413 and the BRL is at a multi-year low of R$4.89. Focus IPCA rose for a ninth consecutive week to 5.02%. Trump rejected Iran’s latest proposal. Warsh’s confirmation is in three days.
The session’s direction is determined by the CPI/IPCA combination. Soft IPCA (≤0.70%) + soft US CPI (≤0.5%) = the best possible outcome: Copom June cut validated, Fed on hold, Ibovespa bounces toward 183K-184K. Hot IPCA (>0.80%) + hot US CPI (>0.7%) = the worst: Copom pause priced, Warsh inherits hawkish mandate, Ibovespa tests 180K. Petrobras guidance is the index-specific catalyst — constructive guidance with maintained dividends stabilizes the oil-stock repricing; capex cuts or dividend warnings extend the Petrobras drag.
Bias: Data-dependent. The session is binary on inflation. The Ibovespa’s 8.4% correction is the deepest of 2026 but the BRL at R$4.89 says the structural thesis is intact. The disconnect between the index (new low) and the currency (new high for the BRL) is the Petrobras paradox in its purest form. A soft IPCA below consensus would be the first concrete confirmation that the oil pass-through is decelerating — and would be the most bullish signal for the Copom since the war began. Watch IPCA at 08:00 BRT, CPI at 08:30 ET, and Petrobras at 11:00 BRT. Three prints, one session, one direction.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the consensus for today’s Brazil IPCA?
The consensus for April IPCA is +0.70% MoM and +4.41% YoY, according to Trading Economics consensus estimates. The previous month printed +0.88% MoM and +4.14% YoY. A reading at or below consensus would confirm the IPCA-15’s soft surprise pattern from April (0.89% vs 1.00% consensus) and support the Copom’s June 17-18 cut. Focus IPCA 2026 expectations rose for a ninth consecutive week to 5.02%, per BCB data.
Why is the Ibovespa falling while US equities hit records?
The Ibovespa’s 8.4% correction from the 198,658 all-time high is driven primarily by Petrobras repricing. The potential Iran deal that would reopen Hormuz and lower oil to $85-90 is globally bullish but bearish for Brazil’s largest stock, which earned R$124.65B in 2025 revenue from elevated oil prices, per Yahoo Finance. Oil stocks constitute roughly 15% of the Ibovespa’s weight. The S&P 500 benefits from the deal hope, closing at 7,413 — a record — on the same day the Ibovespa hit a new low.
When is Kevin Warsh’s Senate confirmation vote?
Kevin Warsh’s Senate confirmation vote as Fed chair is expected on Thursday, May 15, 2026 — three days from today. Warsh will replace Jerome Powell, who confirmed he will remain as a Fed governor. The transition occurs as the US inflation picture shows Core PCE at 4.3%, ISM Prices at 84.6, and today’s CPI release will define the policy mandate Warsh inherits. Traders are watching whether Warsh brings a hawkish pivot or continues the data-dependent approach.
What did Petrobras report in Q1 2026?
Petrobras released Q1 2026 financial results after market close on Monday, May 11. The Zacks consensus called for revenue of $26.2 billion (+24.4% YoY) and EPS of $0.93 (+50% YoY). The company previously reported record Q1 production of 3.23 million barrels per day (+16.1% YoY), per The Rio Times. The full results and forward guidance will be discussed in the Petrobras Q1 webcast on Tuesday at 11:00 BRT, with simultaneous English translation.
Read More from The Rio Times
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