NFP +115K Beat · S&P 7,399 ATH · Nasdaq 26,247 ATH · BRL Below R$4.90 · Ibovespa +0.49% · Brent $101 · Petrobras Q1 Tonight · Focus Survey · Iran 48hrs Expired · Warsh in 4 Days · War Day 72
Petrobras Q1 Tonight, Focus Survey This Morning, and the S&P at 7,399 — The Ibovespa Enters the Week at Its Most Conflicted
The US economy added 115,000 jobs in April, nearly doubling the 62,000 consensus estimate while marking the second consecutive monthly gain after March’s upwardly revised 185,000, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The S&P 500 surged 0.84% to a record 7,398.93 and the Nasdaq jumped 1.71% to 26,247.08 — both new all-time highs and their sixth consecutive weekly gain, the longest streak since 2024, per CNBC. The Ibovespa bounced 0.49% to 184,108.29 on Friday, a modest recovery from Thursday’s 4,473-point crash to a new correction low at 183,218, per B3 data. The BRL strengthened to R$4.8956 — breaking below R$4.90 for the first time since September 2022, per ICE exchange data.
The Petrobras paradox that drove Thursday’s historic selloff now faces its resolution: the company reports Q1 2026 earnings after market close today. The Zacks consensus calls for revenue of $26.2 billion (+24.4% YoY) and EPS of $0.93, per Zacks Research. Q1 production hit a record 3.23 million barrels per day (+16.1% YoY), according to The Rio Times’ production report. The results will reflect peak oil prices ($95-$126 Brent during Q1) — but the forward guidance is what matters, as the market reprices Petrobras for a potential post-deal $85-90 Brent world. Iran’s 48-hour response window expired Friday without a formal answer; Tehran is still “reviewing” the MOU, and Brent stabilized near $101, per Trading Economics. Today: BCB Focus Survey (07:25 BRT). IGP-10 May (07:00 BRT, prev: 2.9%). Petrobras Q1 after-close. US Existing Home Sales (10:00 ET, cons: 4.05M). 3-Year Note Auction (13:00 ET). Warsh confirmation May 15 (4 days). War Day 72.
Three Things That Matter
| Friday | NFP: +115K (beat 62K cons) — 2nd consecutive gain, Feb revised to −156K, Mar revised to +185K (BLS). UE 4.3% (in-line). AHE +0.3% MoM, +3.6% YoY. S&P 500 +0.84% to 7,399 ATH — 6th consecutive weekly gain (CNBC). Nasdaq +1.71% to 26,247 ATH. Dow +12 to 49,609. Weekly: S&P +2.3%, Nasdaq +4.5%. Ibovespa +0.49% to 184,108 (B3). O:183,222, H:185,584, L:183,217, C:184,108. Modest recovery from Thu crash. BRL broke below R$4.90 — R$4.8956, new multi-year low (ICE). Brent +0.81% to $100.87. WTI +0.41% to $95.20. Gold $4,765. BTC $80,913 (−1.56%). Michigan Sentiment: data pending. Iran 48hr deadline expired — still “reviewing” MOU |
| Weekend | Iran still reviewing MOU — 48hr window passed without formal response. Tehran expected to respond via Pakistan “within days” (Trading Economics). No new strikes reported over weekend. Petrobras Q1 reports tonight after close — cons: revenue $26.2B (+24.4% YoY), EPS $0.93 (Zacks). Record production 3.23M bpd (+16.1% YoY, Rio Times). Warsh Senate confirmation vote expected May 15 (4 days). S&P futures stable. Brent near $101 in Sunday trade. BTC at $80,913 (TradingView) |
| Today | BCB FOCUS SURVEY (07:25 BRT) — IPCA 2026 prev: 5.0%. 9th consecutive rise? IGP-10 May (07:00 BRT, prev: 2.9% MoM). PETROBRAS Q1 2026 EARNINGS — after B3 close (cons: $26.2B rev / $0.93 EPS, Zacks). US Existing Home Sales (10:00 ET, cons: 4.05M). CB Employment Trends (10:00). US 3-Year Note Auction (13:00 ET). German Buba Monthly Report (06:00). French bond auctions (09:00). BoE Woods speaks (10:40). Warsh confirmation May 15 (4 days). IEA STEO tomorrow. China Inflation tomorrow. War Day 72 |
The NFP Beat at 115K Reinforced the Resilient Labor Market Narrative
The US economy added 115,000 jobs in April, nearly doubling the 62,000 consensus and marking the first back-to-back monthly increase in employment in nearly a year, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Healthcare led with 37,000 new positions, followed by transportation and warehousing (30,000) and retail trade (22,000), per the BLS establishment survey. Federal government employment continued to decline (−9,000). The unemployment rate held at 4.3%. Average hourly earnings rose 0.3% MoM and 3.6% YoY — a modest deceleration from March’s 3.5% that the market read as “Goldilocks”: strong enough to confirm resilience, not hot enough to trigger rate-hike fears. February was revised down 23,000 to −156,000 and March up 7,000 to +185,000. The BLS noted “it is still too early for any potential economic effects from the US-Israeli conflict with Iran to be reflected in the labor market data,” per Trading Economics’ summary.
The BRL Broke Below R$4.90 for the First Time Since September 2022
The real strengthened to R$4.8956 on Friday — a new multi-year dollar low and the first close below R$4.90 since September 2022, per ICE exchange data and TradingView. RSI at 36.15 (signal: 33.22) — both deeply oversold in favor of the dollar, yet the BRL continues to strengthen against all technical models, per TradingView analysis. The MACD histogram at −0.0002 confirms the momentum is flattening at extreme BRL strength levels. The carry trade’s structural integrity is now validated through: $126 Brent, the ceasefire collapse, UAE missile attacks, the Kijun break, Focus at 5.0%, the worst single-day Ibovespa loss of the war, and the Petrobras repricing — and the dollar never broke R$5.00. The R$4.85-4.90 range is now the structural equilibrium. If the Iran deal materializes and Brent drops to $85-90, the BRL could test R$4.80.
Ibovespa Bounced 0.49% but Remains Below All Major Supports
Friday: O:183,222.05, H:185,584.45, L:183,217.23, C:184,108.29 (+0.49%, +890.03), per B3 data. The modest bounce from Thursday’s 183,218 correction low barely dents the damage. MACD: main line at 366.75, signal at −880.04, histogram at −1,246.80 per TradingView — the histogram has narrowed slightly from −1,290, but the bearish crossover completed: the main MACD line has fallen below the signal for the first time in this cycle. RSI at 48.60, signal at 40.98 — both below 50, confirming the bearish regime. The index closes the week at 184,108 — down 14,550 points (7.3%) from the 198,658 ATH and 3,089 points below the Kijun at 187,197.
Resistance: 184,108 (Friday close) → 185,584 (Friday high) → 186,404 → 187,197 (Kijun) → 198,658 (ATH).
Support: 183,217 (Friday low / Thu panic low area) → 182,868 (Thursday low) → 181,215 (next Ichimoku from chart) → 162,051 (200-day SMA).
Market Snapshot AS OF FRI, MAY 8 CLOSE
| Indicator | Close / Level | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Ibovespa | 184,108.29 | +0.49% (B3 · still below Kijun) |
| USD/BRL | R$4.8956 | BELOW R$4.90 · NEW LOW (ICE) |
| S&P 500 | 7,398.93 | +0.84% ATH · 6th weekly gain (CNBC) |
| Nasdaq | 26,247.08 | +1.71% ATH (CNBC) |
| Brent Crude | $100.87 | +0.81% (holding ~$101) |
| NFP April | +115K | BEAT 62K cons (BLS) |
| Bitcoin | $80,913 | −1.56% (TradingView) |
Monday’s Catalysts: Focus Survey, Petrobras Q1, and Iran’s Silence
The BCB Focus survey at 07:25 BRT determines the week’s domestic tone. Last week’s Focus pushed IPCA 2026 to 5.0% — the eighth consecutive increase and the first breach of the psychological threshold. A ninth consecutive rise to 5.1%+ would further constrain the Copom‘s June 17-18 decision. If Focus holds at 5.0% or dips to 4.9% (reflecting the oil pullback from $126 to $101), the market will read it as the first stabilization signal in two months.
Petrobras Q1 after-close is Monday’s marquee event. Consensus: revenue $26.2 billion (+24.4% YoY), EPS $0.93 (+50% YoY), per Zacks Research. Record Q1 production of 3.23 million bpd, per The Rio Times. The results will be strong given Q1’s elevated oil prices ($95-126 Brent). The key is forward guidance: any reference to Brent assumptions, capex adjustments for a potential deal scenario, or dividend policy changes will determine whether the Petrobras repricing that drove Thursday’s crash continues or stabilizes. Barchart noted Petrobras has “alternated between significant beats and misses, making it difficult to rely on historical performance as a predictor.”
Iran’s 48-hour window expired without a formal response. Tehran is still “reviewing” the MOU and is expected to respond via Pakistan “within days,” per Trading Economics. No new military strikes were reported over the weekend. Brent stabilized near $101. The absence of a response is neither bullish nor bearish — it extends the uncertainty that has defined the past week. The IEA’s Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) releases Tuesday and will provide the first official agency assessment of the deal’s supply implications.
Latin America Markets FRIDAY CLOSE
| Index | Close | Change | RSI (14) | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ibovespa (Brazil) | 184,108.29 | +0.49% | 48.60 | Below Kijun |
| IPC (Mexico) | 69,855.58 | −0.23% | 56.66 | Neutral |
| COLCAP (Colombia) | 2,122.70 | −2.00% | 40.31 | Bearish |
| MERVAL (Argentina) | 2,769,127 | −2.30% | 46.82 | Bearish |
| IPSA (Chile) | 10,758.90 | −1.03% | 50.79 | Neutral |
Friday’s LatAm tape was mixed. Brazil’s Ibovespa eked out a +0.49% recovery but remains the worst weekly performer in the region, per TradingView data. Colombia’s COLCAP dropped 2.00% — the sharpest Friday decline — as the oil-producer discount deepened. The MERVAL fell 2.30%, giving back Wednesday’s deal-hope rally. Chile’s IPSA lost 1.03%. Mexico’s IPC held near 70K (−0.23%). The regional picture reflects the same Petrobras paradox playing out across oil-weighted LatAm: the potential deal is globally bullish but locally bearish for the energy sector. As covered in the latest LATAM Pulse, the LatAm carry trade complex remains structurally intact despite the equity volatility.
Positioning BOTTOM LINE
The Ibovespa enters the week at 184,108 — 14,550 points (7.3%) below the ATH, below the Kijun, below the cloud base, and 890 points above the new correction low at 183,218. The BRL at R$4.8956 has broken below R$4.90 for the first time since September 2022. The S&P and Nasdaq are at fresh records. Brent is at $101. The NFP beat at 115K confirms the US labor market is cooling gradually, not crashing. The Petrobras paradox — where a potential Iran deal is globally bullish but locally bearish for the Ibovespa’s largest stock — remains the defining dynamic.
Monday’s three catalysts determine the week. The Focus survey at 07:25 BRT sets the inflation expectations trajectory — a stabilization at 5.0% or better would be the first positive signal in two months. Petrobras Q1 after-close provides the earnings anchor for the index — strong results with constructive guidance could stabilize the oil-stock selloff. Iran’s response to the MOU remains pending — any news over the week either collapses Brent further (testing $90) or sends it back above $105. Warsh’s confirmation on May 15 (Thursday) adds institutional uncertainty at the Fed.
Bias: Constructive for non-oil Brazil, cautious on the index due to Petrobras weight. The structural indicators (BRL at R$4.89, carry trade intact, S&P at records, NFP resilient) support a recovery. But the Ibovespa’s 15% oil weighting means any further Brent decline below $95 creates additional downward pressure on the index even as the macro environment improves. The resolution of this paradox — likely over the next 1-2 weeks as the Iran response arrives and Petrobras results are digested — will determine whether the correction deepens toward 180K or reverses toward 187K+. Watch Focus at 07:25, Petrobras after-close, and Brent.
Frequently Asked Questions
What did the April Nonfarm Payrolls show?
The US economy added 115,000 jobs in April 2026, nearly doubling the 62,000 consensus and marking the second consecutive monthly gain, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Healthcare added 37,000 positions, transportation 30,000, and retail 22,000. The unemployment rate held at 4.3%. Average hourly earnings rose 0.3% MoM and 3.6% YoY. The BLS noted the Iran conflict’s effects are not yet reflected in the data.
When does Petrobras report Q1 2026 earnings?
Petrobras (PETR4/PBR) reports Q1 2026 earnings after market close on Monday, May 11. Zacks consensus calls for revenue of $26.2 billion (+24.4% YoY) and EPS of $0.93 (+50% YoY). The company already reported record Q1 production of 3.23 million barrels per day, up 16.1% year-over-year, per The Rio Times. The forward guidance on oil-price assumptions and capex will be the most closely watched element.
Why did the BRL break below R$4.90?
The real strengthened to R$4.8956 on Friday, the first close below R$4.90 since September 2022, per ICE exchange data. The move reflects the 14.50% Selic carry trade, cumulative foreign inflows of approximately R$68 billion in 2026, Brazil’s net oil exporter status, and the market pricing a dovish Copom cutting cycle. The BRL has held below R$5.00 for five consecutive weeks despite the Ibovespa’s worst day of the war and Brent’s crash from $126 to $101.
Has Iran responded to the US peace proposal?
Iran had not formally responded to the 14-point MOU as of Sunday, May 10, per Trading Economics and multiple news sources. The 48-hour window that Axios reported expired Friday without a definitive answer. Tehran is described as still “reviewing” the proposal and is expected to respond via Pakistani intermediaries “within days.” No new military strikes were reported over the weekend. Brent stabilized near $101.