Argentina’s Central Bank Builds Reserves, Testing A New Dollar Band

Key Points

• The BCRA has bought about $715–$716 million in January, lifting gross reserves near $44.875 billion.
• The peso remains inside a managed band, ahead of an IMF review expected in early February.
• Country risk near 575 points is feeding market-return hopes, but the band’s credibility is the real test.

Argentina’s foreign-exchange market has stayed calm as the central bank keeps buying dollars. Traders cite net purchases of roughly $715–$716 million in January. They see it as an anchor ahead of the IMF’s second review in early February.

Gross reserves are reported around $44.874–$44.875 billion, the highest since 2021 and the biggest since Javier Milei took office. Reporting has also noted a repo operation with private banks, alongside ongoing debt payments.

The day-to-day flow still matters. Market estimates put average purchases near $59 million a day. The BCRA bought about $8 million on Tuesday after adding roughly $21 million on Monday.

The peso’s position inside the official “bands” explains much of the stability. The wholesale rate traded near 1,434.50 per dollar, below the upper edge around 1,551.11.

The band is adjusted using recent inflation data. With December inflation reported at 2.8%, the monthly adjustment from February is set at 2.8%. Some analysts project the ceiling could move above 1,600, near 1,607, later in February.

Investors are also tracking country risk, hovering around 575 basis points after a reported 10.4% decline during 2025. Some desks expect a break below 500.

That could revive debate about returning to international credit markets, closed since 2018. For foreign investors, lower risk premia can spill into regional pricing and funding costs.

Local assets echoed the tension. The S&P Merval finished about 1% higher, while sovereign bonds were modestly lower, near 0.6% down on average. Politics now matters as much as prices.

Milei has called extraordinary congressional sessions for February 2–27, with labor reform described as central. At Davos, he is pitching a more orthodox policy mix and meeting business figures, including Maurice Ostro.

Related coverage: Brazil’s Morning Call | Argentina’s Trade Surplus Hit $11.3 Billion In 2025 As Energ This is part of The Rio Times’ daily coverage of Argentina affairs and Latin American financial news.