Brazil’s Financial Morning Call for January 21, 2026

This is part of The Rio Times’ daily Brazil Financial Morning Call, covering Latin American financial markets.

Today’s Key Themes

\n

\n \t
• Itaú sole brand → Itaú Unibanco rises to 254th in Global 500 with 15% brand value growth to $9.9B, while Banco do Brasil drops out after R$13.5B market value loss amid agribusiness challenges.

\n \t

• Foreign stock drive → Foreigners hit 62% of B3 volume at R$2.8T in 2025 (up 15%), net buyers R$25.5B, while locals sold R$46.6B; top turnover in Vale (R$197.7B), Petrobras pref (R$154B), Itaú (R$130.6B).

\n \t

• Steel output soft → Crude steel down 1.6% to 33.3MT in 2025, imports at 21% penetration causing 5K job losses and R$2.5B investment cuts, per Aço Brasil; Gerdau contextually noted.

\n \t

• Davos absence → No Lula/Haddad at WEF signals policy gaps amid IPO freeze, high costs, and Brazil’s 58.9% LatAm index weight but 4.32% EM share.

\n \t

• Batista Venezuela play → Batista brothers via J&F eye Petrolera Roraima (1B barrels oil, 351B cf gas) with A&B Oil (49%), PDVSA (51%), tied to ConocoPhillips fields amid U.S. sanctions and reforms.

\n \t

• Ibovespa record → Up 0.87% to 166,276.90 on R$23.9B turnover, intraday high 166,467.56, led Vale (+2%), Petrobras on oil; banks firm amid rotation from U.S. risk.

\n \t

• Currency slip → Real weakens 0.31% to ~R$5.38 on tariff shocks despite soft DXY ~98.6, range 5.374–5.423.

\n \t

• Gold surge → Hits $4,885/oz up 2.6% on Greenland tensions and tariffs, leading metals shift.

\n \t

• Crypto dip → Bitcoin -2.35% ~$89,110 on risk-off, $1B liquidations; Ether -5% ~$2,966.

\n

\nBroader risk: U.S. tariff threats on Europe/Greenland, Supreme Court hearing, EM volatility could pressure real/equities, offset by commodities strength and foreign inflows.
\n
\n

Economic Agenda for January 21, 2026

\n

Brazil

\n

\n \t
• 12:30 PM BRT – Foreign Exchange Flows Cons: – Prev: -1.696B

\n

\n

Mexico

\n

\n \t
• 7:00 AM CST – Retail Sales (YoY) (Nov) Cons: 3.0% Prev: 3.4%

\n \t

• 7:00 AM CST – Retail Sales (MoM) (Nov) Cons: 0.1% Prev: 0.4%

\n

\n

Argentina

\n

\n \t
• 2:00 PM ART – Economic Activity (YoY) (Nov) Cons: – Prev: 3.2%

\n

\n

United States

\n

\n \t
• 4:00 AM EST – IEA Monthly Report Cons: – Prev: –

\n \t

• 7:00 AM EST – MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate Cons: – Prev: 6.18%

\n \t

• 7:00 AM EST – MBA Mortgage Applications (WoW) Cons: – Prev: 28.5%

\n

\n

EU

\n

\n \t
• 2:30 AM CET – ECB President Lagarde Speaks

\n \t

• 11:45 AM CET – ECB President Lagarde Speaks

\n \t

• 1:30 PM CET – German Buba President Nagel Speaks

\n

\n

UK

\n

\n \t
• 2:00 AM GMT – Core CPI (YoY) (Dec) Cons: 3.3% Prev: 3.2%

\n \t

• 2:00 AM GMT – CPI (YoY) (Dec) Cons: 3.3% Prev: 3.2%

\n \t

• 2:00 AM GMT – RPI (YoY) (Dec) Cons: 4.1% Prev: 3.8%

\n

\nImplication: Today’s Brazilian Foreign Exchange Flows reveal capital movement trends, potentially highlighting foreign confidence amid tariff risks and commodities support, bolstering real stability and equity inflows.
\n
\nMexico retail sales (3.0% YoY cons, 0.1% MoM cons) test consumer resilience post-holiday, where softer reads could pressure Banxico easing bets and lift USD/MXN, while beats affirm near-record stocks.
\n
\nArgentina economic activity (YoY Nov) gauges recovery momentum, with upside aiding peso steadiness amid dollar slump and Merval rebound.
\n
\nU.S. IEA report signals energy trends, MBA mortgage data (rate 6.18% prev, apps 28.5% prev) tracks housing amid yields; construction spending (0.1% cons), pending homes (-0.3% cons), Atlanta GDPNow (5.3% cons), API oil stocks, 20-Year Bond Auction influence liquidity and risk mood post-tariff threats.
\n
\nEU ECB Lagarde speeches (two sessions) and Nagel address policy amid disinflation; could ease pressures if dovish, aiding EM like BRL.
\n
\nUK inflation metrics (core 3.3% cons, headline 3.3% cons, RPI 4.1% cons) assess wage/price stickiness, softer figures fueling BoE cuts and EM asset lifts, stickier bolstering dollar. Overall, global tariff/geopolitical noise amplifies reactions, with metals cushioning LatAm.
\n

Brazil’s Markets on Tuesday

\nIbovespa +0.87% to 166,276.90 on R$23.9 billion turnover. Conviction buying amid global rotation from U.S. risk, commodities supported Petrobras/Vale; banks held firm near records but overbought RSI signals caution.
\n
\nRead more 
\n

Commodity Markets

\n

Palladium

\nPrice: $1,805.00/oz, up 0.1% (as of 04:37).
\nWhat’s happening: It is barely higher with spillover from gold’s risk-off surge.
\n

Platinum

\nPrice: $2,396.50/oz, down 0.5% (as of 04:37).
\nWhat’s happening: It is slipping as traders rotate into gold amid profit-taking.
\n

Gold

\nPrice: $4,885.00/oz, up 2.6% (as of 04:37).
\nWhat’s happening: It is pushing to new highs on Greenland tensions and tariff fears.
\n
\nRead more 
\n

Silver

\nPrice: $95.22/oz, down 0.5% (as of 04:37).
\nWhat’s happening: It is cooling after overheated run, still volatile with crowded positioning.
\n

Copper

\nPrice: $5.86/lb, up 0.90% on the day.
\nWhat’s happening: It is rising with hedging against supply constraints and softer dollar.
\n

Iron ore (62% Fe CFR)

\nPrice: $106.54/ton, down 0.57%.
\nWhat’s happening: Action is thin, waiting for China steel signals.
\n

Aluminum (LME 3-month)

\nPrice: $3,139.50/ton, up 0.70% (Jan 21 session print).
\nWhat’s happening: Tight supply in China/elsewhere supports prices amid demand rise.
\n

Currency

\nBrazilian Real → Rose to ~R$5.38 (range R$5.374–R$5.423); weakened 0.31% on tariff shock despite soft DXY ~98.6, masking U.S. Supreme hearing and local politics.
\n
\nRead more 
\n

Companies and Market

\nItaú Becomes Brazil’s Only Brand In The Global 500 As A.I. Reshapes Rankings → Itaú up 15% to $9.9B value at 254th, Banco do Brasil drops amid R$13.5B loss and agribusiness stress.
\n
\nRead more 
\n
\nForeign Trading Drove Brazil’s Stock Volume In 2025 As Local Institutions Sold → Foreigners 62% at R$2.8T (up 15%), net buyers R$25.5B; locals net sellers R$46.6B; top: Vale R$197.7B, Petrobras pref R$154B, Itaú R$130.6B, Banco do Brasil R$89B, B3 R$87.6B, Bradesco R$83B, Ambev R$77B, Petrobras common R$65.2B, WEG R$65.1B, Sabesp R$64B.
\n
\nRead more 
\n
\nBrazil’s Steel Market Ends 2025 With Softer Output And A Sharper Import Squeeze → Crude down 1.6% to 33.3MT, imports 21% penetration, 5K jobs lost, R$2.5B cuts per Aço Brasil; Gerdau noted.
\n
\nRead more 
\n
\nDavos Without Brazil’s Heavyweights: What The Silence Signals → No Lula/Haddad signals policy voids amid IPO freeze, high costs, 58.9% LatAm index dominance but 4.32% EM weight.
\n
\nRead more 
\n
\nBrazil’s Batista Family Eyes Venezuela’s Oil Reset As Washington Tightens The Spigot → J&F via associate in Petrolera Roraima (1B bbl oil, 351B cf gas) with A&B Oil 49%, PDVSA 51%, ex-ConocoPhillips; prod 22K-32K bpd amid U.S. curbs, $500M sale.
\n
\nRead more 
\n

U.S. Markets on Tuesday

\nChoppy with Dow -1.76%, S&P 500 -2.06%, Nasdaq -2.39%; risk cooled on tariff threats, Greenland friction, and policy uncertainty.
\n

Regional Peers — Mixed:

\nColombia’s Stock Boom Keeps Running As The Peso Stays Steady → USD/COP ~3,676 steady on soft DXY; MSCI COLCAP ~2,402 record, led ISA (+5.36%), Nutresa (+4.99%), Grupo Sura (+4.49%); turnover COP 285B up 66%.
\n
\nRead more 
\n
\nDollar Softness Kept The Peso Firm As Mexico Stocks Hovered Near Records → USD/MXN ~17.57 up 0.27%; S&P/BMV IPC +0.49% to 67,467.82 near peak, led Grupo México/Becle/Arca Continental; low volume 81% below avg.
\n
\nRead more 
\n
\nArgentina’s Peso Holds Steady As Dollar Slumps Merval Rebounds → USD/ARS ~1,434 official, blue ~1,500 (3% premium); S&P Merval +1% to ~2.97M; led Banco Macro/BBVA/Pampa Energía, RSI oversold.
\n
\nRead more 
\n
\nChile’s Peso Firms As Metals Offset Trade Noise And Rate Jitters → USD/CLP ~884–885 steady on DXY soft; IPSA + small to 11,159.35 near record, led SQM-B (+2.9%), LATAM (+1.9%); turnover CLP 315.8B.
\n
\nRead more 
\n
\nNote: Crypto markets cool after selloff as tariff fears return → Bitcoin -2.35% ~$89,110, Ether -5% ~$2,966; $1B liquidations expose leverage.
\n
\nRead more 

Related coverage: Ibovespa session | dollar-real exchange rate