Brazil’s Financial Morning Call for January 21, 2026

This is part of The Rio Times’ daily Brazil Financial Morning Call, covering Latin American financial markets.

Today’s Key Themes

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• Itaú sole brand → Itaú Unibanco rises to 254th in Global 500 with 15% brand value growth to $9.9B, while Banco do Brasil drops out after R$13.5B market value loss amid agribusiness challenges.

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• Foreign stock drive → Foreigners hit 62% of B3 volume at R$2.8T in 2025 (up 15%), net buyers R$25.5B, while locals sold R$46.6B; top turnover in Vale (R$197.7B), Petrobras pref (R$154B), Itaú (R$130.6B).

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• Steel output soft → Crude steel down 1.6% to 33.3MT in 2025, imports at 21% penetration causing 5K job losses and R$2.5B investment cuts, per Aço Brasil; Gerdau contextually noted.

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• Davos absence → No Lula/Haddad at WEF signals policy gaps amid IPO freeze, high costs, and Brazil’s 58.9% LatAm index weight but 4.32% EM share.

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• Batista Venezuela play → Batista brothers via J&F eye Petrolera Roraima (1B barrels oil, 351B cf gas) with A&B Oil (49%), PDVSA (51%), tied to ConocoPhillips fields amid U.S. sanctions and reforms.

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• Ibovespa record → Up 0.87% to 166,276.90 on R$23.9B turnover, intraday high 166,467.56, led Vale (+2%), Petrobras on oil; banks firm amid rotation from U.S. risk.

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• Currency slip → Real weakens 0.31% to ~R$5.38 on tariff shocks despite soft DXY ~98.6, range 5.374–5.423.

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• Gold surge → Hits $4,885/oz up 2.6% on Greenland tensions and tariffs, leading metals shift.

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• Crypto dip → Bitcoin -2.35% ~$89,110 on risk-off, $1B liquidations; Ether -5% ~$2,966.

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\nBroader risk: U.S. tariff threats on Europe/Greenland, Supreme Court hearing, EM volatility could pressure real/equities, offset by commodities strength and foreign inflows.
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Economic Agenda for January 21, 2026

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Brazil

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• 12:30 PM BRT – Foreign Exchange Flows Cons: – Prev: -1.696B

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Mexico

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• 7:00 AM CST – Retail Sales (YoY) (Nov) Cons: 3.0% Prev: 3.4%

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• 7:00 AM CST – Retail Sales (MoM) (Nov) Cons: 0.1% Prev: 0.4%

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Argentina

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• 2:00 PM ART – Economic Activity (YoY) (Nov) Cons: – Prev: 3.2%

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United States

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• 4:00 AM EST – IEA Monthly Report Cons: – Prev: –

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• 7:00 AM EST – MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate Cons: – Prev: 6.18%

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• 7:00 AM EST – MBA Mortgage Applications (WoW) Cons: – Prev: 28.5%

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EU

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• 2:30 AM CET – ECB President Lagarde Speaks

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• 11:45 AM CET – ECB President Lagarde Speaks

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• 1:30 PM CET – German Buba President Nagel Speaks

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UK

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• 2:00 AM GMT – Core CPI (YoY) (Dec) Cons: 3.3% Prev: 3.2%

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• 2:00 AM GMT – CPI (YoY) (Dec) Cons: 3.3% Prev: 3.2%

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• 2:00 AM GMT – RPI (YoY) (Dec) Cons: 4.1% Prev: 3.8%

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\nImplication: Today’s Brazilian Foreign Exchange Flows reveal capital movement trends, potentially highlighting foreign confidence amid tariff risks and commodities support, bolstering real stability and equity inflows.
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\nMexico retail sales (3.0% YoY cons, 0.1% MoM cons) test consumer resilience post-holiday, where softer reads could pressure Banxico easing bets and lift USD/MXN, while beats affirm near-record stocks.
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\nArgentina economic activity (YoY Nov) gauges recovery momentum, with upside aiding peso steadiness amid dollar slump and Merval rebound.
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\nU.S. IEA report signals energy trends, MBA mortgage data (rate 6.18% prev, apps 28.5% prev) tracks housing amid yields; construction spending (0.1% cons), pending homes (-0.3% cons), Atlanta GDPNow (5.3% cons), API oil stocks, 20-Year Bond Auction influence liquidity and risk mood post-tariff threats.
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\nEU ECB Lagarde speeches (two sessions) and Nagel address policy amid disinflation; could ease pressures if dovish, aiding EM like BRL.
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\nUK inflation metrics (core 3.3% cons, headline 3.3% cons, RPI 4.1% cons) assess wage/price stickiness, softer figures fueling BoE cuts and EM asset lifts, stickier bolstering dollar. Overall, global tariff/geopolitical noise amplifies reactions, with metals cushioning LatAm.
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Brazil’s Markets on Tuesday

\nIbovespa +0.87% to 166,276.90 on R$23.9 billion turnover. Conviction buying amid global rotation from U.S. risk, commodities supported Petrobras/Vale; banks held firm near records but overbought RSI signals caution.
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Commodity Markets

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Palladium

\nPrice: $1,805.00/oz, up 0.1% (as of 04:37).
\nWhat’s happening: It is barely higher with spillover from gold’s risk-off surge.
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Platinum

\nPrice: $2,396.50/oz, down 0.5% (as of 04:37).
\nWhat’s happening: It is slipping as traders rotate into gold amid profit-taking.
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Gold

\nPrice: $4,885.00/oz, up 2.6% (as of 04:37).
\nWhat’s happening: It is pushing to new highs on Greenland tensions and tariff fears.
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Silver

\nPrice: $95.22/oz, down 0.5% (as of 04:37).
\nWhat’s happening: It is cooling after overheated run, still volatile with crowded positioning.
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Copper

\nPrice: $5.86/lb, up 0.90% on the day.
\nWhat’s happening: It is rising with hedging against supply constraints and softer dollar.
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Iron ore (62% Fe CFR)

\nPrice: $106.54/ton, down 0.57%.
\nWhat’s happening: Action is thin, waiting for China steel signals.
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Aluminum (LME 3-month)

\nPrice: $3,139.50/ton, up 0.70% (Jan 21 session print).
\nWhat’s happening: Tight supply in China/elsewhere supports prices amid demand rise.
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Currency

\nBrazilian Real → Rose to ~R$5.38 (range R$5.374–R$5.423); weakened 0.31% on tariff shock despite soft DXY ~98.6, masking U.S. Supreme hearing and local politics.
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Companies and Market

\nItaú Becomes Brazil’s Only Brand In The Global 500 As A.I. Reshapes Rankings → Itaú up 15% to $9.9B value at 254th, Banco do Brasil drops amid R$13.5B loss and agribusiness stress.
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\nForeign Trading Drove Brazil’s Stock Volume In 2025 As Local Institutions Sold → Foreigners 62% at R$2.8T (up 15%), net buyers R$25.5B; locals net sellers R$46.6B; top: Vale R$197.7B, Petrobras pref R$154B, Itaú R$130.6B, Banco do Brasil R$89B, B3 R$87.6B, Bradesco R$83B, Ambev R$77B, Petrobras common R$65.2B, WEG R$65.1B, Sabesp R$64B.
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\nBrazil’s Steel Market Ends 2025 With Softer Output And A Sharper Import Squeeze → Crude down 1.6% to 33.3MT, imports 21% penetration, 5K jobs lost, R$2.5B cuts per Aço Brasil; Gerdau noted.
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\nDavos Without Brazil’s Heavyweights: What The Silence Signals → No Lula/Haddad signals policy voids amid IPO freeze, high costs, 58.9% LatAm index dominance but 4.32% EM weight.
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\nBrazil’s Batista Family Eyes Venezuela’s Oil Reset As Washington Tightens The Spigot → J&F via associate in Petrolera Roraima (1B bbl oil, 351B cf gas) with A&B Oil 49%, PDVSA 51%, ex-ConocoPhillips; prod 22K-32K bpd amid U.S. curbs, $500M sale.
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U.S. Markets on Tuesday

\nChoppy with Dow -1.76%, S&P 500 -2.06%, Nasdaq -2.39%; risk cooled on tariff threats, Greenland friction, and policy uncertainty.
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Regional Peers — Mixed:

\nColombia’s Stock Boom Keeps Running As The Peso Stays Steady → USD/COP ~3,676 steady on soft DXY; MSCI COLCAP ~2,402 record, led ISA (+5.36%), Nutresa (+4.99%), Grupo Sura (+4.49%); turnover COP 285B up 66%.
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\nDollar Softness Kept The Peso Firm As Mexico Stocks Hovered Near Records → USD/MXN ~17.57 up 0.27%; S&P/BMV IPC +0.49% to 67,467.82 near peak, led Grupo México/Becle/Arca Continental; low volume 81% below avg.
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\nArgentina’s Peso Holds Steady As Dollar Slumps Merval Rebounds → USD/ARS ~1,434 official, blue ~1,500 (3% premium); S&P Merval +1% to ~2.97M; led Banco Macro/BBVA/Pampa Energía, RSI oversold.
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\nChile’s Peso Firms As Metals Offset Trade Noise And Rate Jitters → USD/CLP ~884–885 steady on DXY soft; IPSA + small to 11,159.35 near record, led SQM-B (+2.9%), LATAM (+1.9%); turnover CLP 315.8B.
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\nNote: Crypto markets cool after selloff as tariff fears return → Bitcoin -2.35% ~$89,110, Ether -5% ~$2,966; $1B liquidations expose leverage.
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Related coverage: Ibovespa session | dollar-real exchange rate

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