The Big Three
The S&P Merval pulled back 1.63% to 2,834,283.25 on Thursday — giving back nearly half of Wednesday’s +4.42% surge — as the index settled on the Kijun-sen / cloud bottom at 2,832K, the gravitational center that defined the entire April range. The index opened at 2,881,352 (Wednesday’s close), barely touched 2,889,234, then sold to a session low of 2,814,711 before recovering to 2,834,283, according to BYMA data as of close, May 7, 2026. The pullback is constructive rather than alarming: a −1.63% giveback after a +4.42% surge (retaining 63% of the gain) is a normal consolidation that confirms the Kijun as the floor rather than the ceiling. The close at 2,834K is back in the familiar territory the Merval occupied for three weeks before Monday’s breakdown — but arriving from below after the capitulation reversal rather than from above during the selloff.
The MACD histogram continued to narrow — from −14,111 to −12,128 — meaning the momentum recovery is intact even as price pulled back. This is the constructive divergence: price declining while the MACD improves. The MACD’s trajectory over the past four sessions (−21,884 → −14,111 → −12,128) shows consistent improvement. The MACD line at −605 is approaching zero — a cross above would be the first positive MACD reading since the correction began. RSI signal at 47.45 is essentially flat from 47.95 — stable rather than declining. The momentum picture argues that Thursday was a healthy retest of the Kijun after Wednesday’s spike rather than the beginning of a new leg down.
The April CPI on May 14 — now 7 days away — arrives with the Merval in a better position than at any point since the correction began: on the Kijun (not below the 200-SMA), with the MACD narrowing (not deepening), and with the RSI near 50 (not at 37). The capitulation low at 2,749,913 (Wednesday’s session low) is confirmed as THE floor — 84K points below Thursday’s close. The cloud top at 2,895,293 (61K above) is the resistance. A CPI below 3% monthly would target the cloud top and potentially 3,000,000. A CPI above 3% would retest the Kijun support and potentially the 50-SMA at 2,818K. The soybean harvest provides the BCRA dollar floor; the fiscal surplus provides the structural anchor, according to Rio Times economy analysis.
01 Market Snapshot
| Indicator | Value | Change |
| S&P Merval Close / Kijun | 2,834,283.25 | −1.63% (−47,069.03) |
| Wednesday surge retained | 63% | +4.42% → −1.63% net = +2.72% |
| MACD histogram (STILL NARROWING) | −12,128 | from −14,111 (improving) |
| MACD line (approaching zero) | −605 | approaching bullish cross |
| RSI signal (stable) | 47.45 | from 47.95 — flat |
| Cloud top (resistance) | 2,895,293 | 61K above close |
| Capitulation low (THE floor) | 2,749,913 | 84K below close |
| April CPI | May 14 | 7 days |
Source: BYMA, TradingView — as of close May 7, 2026.
02 Merval Performance — Healthy Consolidation
Merval Argentina today enters Friday’s session on the Kijun after a −1.63% pullback that is more constructive than the headline suggests. The two-session net gain is +2.72% (Wednesday +4.42%, Thursday −1.63%), meaning the Merval retained 63% of its capitulation reversal — a healthy ratio that confirms the Kijun as the consolidation floor rather than the rejection level. The session low at 2,814,711 tested the 50-SMA area (2,818,259) and held — confirming that the 50-SMA has returned to support after Monday’s breakdown.
The constructive divergence between price (declining) and MACD (improving) is the session’s most important signal. When price pulls back but the MACD continues to narrow, it typically indicates that the pullback is a healthy retest within a nascent recovery rather than the start of a new decline. The MACD line at −605 is approaching zero; if it crosses positive, it would be the first bullish MACD reading since the correction began and would align Argentina’s technical profile with Mexico’s (which crossed bullish on Thursday).
03 Technical Setup
From the chart: O:2,881,352.28, H:2,889,234.06, L:2,814,711.23, C:2,834,283.25 (−47,069.03, −1.63%). Thursday’s candle is a pullback within a reversal — open near the high, close on the Kijun midpoint. MACD at −605 with signal at −11,523 (histogram −12,128 narrowing). RSI at 47.51 with signal at 47.45.
Key Levels Above
• Resistance 1: 2,895,293 (cloud top — a close above exits the cloud, confirms recovery)
• Resistance 2: 2,955,991 (April range high)
• Resistance 3: 3,000,000 (psychological — CPI below 3% target)
Key Levels Below
• Support 1: 2,818,259 (50-day SMA — tested intraday Thursday, held)
• Support 2: 2,808,233 (200-day SMA)
• Support 3: 2,749,913 (capitulation low — THE floor)
04 What to Watch
• Friday: Hold above 2,818K (50-SMA) confirms the Kijun as consolidation floor. A close above 2,856K (21-EMA) would resume the recovery toward the cloud top.
• May 14 (7 days): April INDEC CPI — below 3% = first in 11 months, targets 3,000,000; above 3% = retests 50-SMA/200-SMA support.
• Ongoing: BCRA reserve accumulation (~$3.3B YTD vs $10B target). Peak soybean harvest.
• Ongoing: Country risk near 500–546 bps. MACD line at −605 approaching zero cross.
05 Verdict
Thursday was the healthy pullback. The −1.63% decline — retaining 63% of Wednesday’s +4.42% surge — settles the Merval on the Kijun at 2,834K with the MACD continuing to narrow (−14,111→−12,128) despite the price decline. The constructive divergence (price down, MACD improving) is the signature of a market consolidating after a capitulation reversal rather than reversing back into decline. The session low at 2,815K tested and held the 50-SMA — confirming the level as support again after Monday’s breakdown.
Bias: Cautiously bullish — Kijun consolidation, MACD narrowing, CPI in 7 days. The Merval at 2,834K on the Kijun with the MACD approaching zero and the CPI 7 days away is in a better position than at any point since the correction began. The cloud top at 2,895K (61K above) is the resistance. The 50-SMA at 2,818K is the support. The capitulation low at 2,750K is THE floor. The CPI below 3% opens the path to 3,000,000. Above 3% retests support. Seven days.
Frequently Asked Questions
Why did the Merval pull back 1.63% after Wednesday’s surge?
The Merval gave back 47,069 points after Wednesday’s +4.42% (122,096 points) capitulation reversal, retaining 63% of the gain. The pullback settled the index on the Kijun-sen at 2,834K, the gravitational center from the three-week April range. This is a normal consolidation pattern after a large reversal session, according to BYMA data as of May 7, 2026.
Is the MACD still improving despite the pullback?
Yes. The MACD histogram narrowed from −14,111 to −12,128 on Thursday despite the −1.63% price decline. The MACD line at −605 is approaching zero; a cross above would be the first positive reading since the correction began. The constructive divergence (price declining, MACD improving) typically indicates a healthy retest within a recovery rather than a new leg down.
What is the next key level for the Merval?
The cloud top at 2,895,293 is the resistance — a close above exits the Ichimoku cloud and confirms the recovery. Below, the 50-day SMA at 2,818,259 (tested intraday Thursday and held) is the support. The capitulation low at 2,749,913 from Wednesday’s session is the definitive floor. A break below it would negate the reversal entirely.
How important is the April CPI for the Merval?
The April INDEC CPI on May 14 (7 days away) is the most consequential data point for the Merval since October 2025. March CPI was 3.4% monthly (annual 32.6%). A reading below 3% would be the first in eleven months and could launch a recovery toward 3,000,000. A reading above 3% would confirm the re-acceleration thesis and test the 50-SMA and 200-SMA support levels.
Related coverage:
Capitulation reversal: Merval Surges 4.42% in Reversal From Lows
Economy guide: Argentina Economy 2026: Growth, Reforms and Investor Guide
LatAm markets: Latin America Stock Markets 2026: Complete Guide
This report is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Always consult a licensed financial advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Published by The Rio Times.
Updated: 2026-05-08T08:00:00Z by Rio Times LatAm Markets Desk