Key Points
Argentina exports declined 2.9% year-on-year in February, snapping an eight-month streak of growth and delivering the weakest monthly trade surplus since August, according to data released by the national statistics agency INDEC. The country still posted a $788 million surplus — more than double the $275 million recorded in the same month last year — but the result fell well short of the $1.16 billion the market expected, The Rio Times, the Latin American financial news outlet, reports.
Why Argentina Exports Dropped
February’s $5.96 billion in exports were dragged down by two sectors. Fuel shipments fell 27% year-on-year, a sharp reversal for a sector that had been expanding steadily on the back of Vaca Muerta’s growing production. Agricultural manufactures declined 10%, hurt by weaker soybean derivative volumes as the complex registered a 50.7% drop in its trade contribution compared to February 2025.
Primary products rose 8.2% and industrial manufactures climbed 8.6%, the latter buoyed by surging gold prices. But these gains could not offset the weakness elsewhere. Crucially, export volumes fell 7.1% even as prices rose 4.4%, suggesting the problem is quantity rather than pricing power.
Imports Signal a Stalled Recovery
The surplus owed more to collapsing imports than to export strength. Purchases from abroad fell 11.8% to $5.17 billion, with volumes down nearly 15%. The sharpest declines came in the categories most closely linked to investment: parts and accessories for capital goods dropped 25%, while capital goods themselves fell 18%.
Consultancy LCG noted that the surplus “increased versus last year, but contracted sharply versus January” when the figure had reached $1.99 billion. The firm attributed the monthly decline to a smaller energy surplus, weaker agricultural exports, and a widening deficit across other sectors. Consumer goods imports also fell 3%, pointing to a domestic economy where neither businesses nor households are spending freely.
Middle East Conflict Changes the Outlook
The war that erupted in the Middle East at the end of February has reshuffled the price environment dramatically. Brent crude surged from roughly $70 — its 2025 average — to nearly $110 in recent days, a 57% jump that should boost Argentina’s fuel export revenues in coming months. Wheat and corn futures have climbed 15% and 8% respectively, while soybean movements have been more contained.
For Argentina, the oil shock is broadly positive. Unlike Chile or Brazil, the country is now a net energy exporter thanks to Vaca Muerta, which means higher Brent translates into larger dollar inflows rather than higher import bills. LCG said the elevated commodity prices should compensate for the seasonal weakness typical of the first quarter.
On the import side, the consultancy expects no significant rebound. Economic activity shows no clear signs of recovery, keeping demand for foreign goods subdued. Without a firm pickup in consumption and investment, imports are unlikely to exceed current levels in the near term.
Full-Year Outlook
For the first two months of 2026, Argentina’s accumulated surplus stands at $2.98 billion, nearly seven times the $438 million posted in the same period last year. LCG projects full-year exports of $90 billion against imports just above $80 billion, yielding a surplus of approximately $10 billion.
Whether the war premium on commodities and the persistent weakness of domestic demand sustain that trajectory will depend on how long the Middle East crisis lasts — and whether Milei’s economy finally starts growing fast enough to pull imports back up.