Tariffs And Tight Supply: Brazil’s Coffee Exports Stumble, Prices Hold Firm

Brazil’s coffee shipments took a sharp step down in September, a reminder that a global habit depends on fragile trade currents.

Exporters loaded 3.75 million 60-kg bags—an 18.4% drop from a year earlier. Yet the money coming in rose 11.1% to US$1.369 billion because beans sold at higher prices.

Two forces drove the turn. First, supply is tighter. After a record September in 2024, on-farm stocks are leaner and this year’s arabica crop faced heat and dryness, plus the down year of its natural biennial cycle.

Robusta (conilon) performed better, but arabica still makes up about four-fifths of Brazil’s coffee exports, so a thinner arabica harvest matters. Second, a new 50% U.S. import tariff landed in August and bit fast.

September shipments to the United States fell 52.8% to roughly 333,000 bags, knocking the U.S. into third place among monthly buyers behind Germany (about 655,000 bags) and Italy (roughly 335,000).

Even so, the U.S. remains Brazil’s top customer so far this year with 4.361 million bags—around 15% of total exports—showing how interconnected the two markets are.

The logistics map is unchanged. The Port of Santos handled just under four-fifths of shipments, with Rio de Janeiro second and Paranaguá a distant third. The product mix also held: arabica dominant, with robusta and soluble coffee making up most of the rest.

Tariffs and Supply Shifts Reshape Global Coffee Trade

The story behind the story is simple. When the biggest supplier ships less and a heavyweight buyer faces a steep tariff, trade flows reroute, and prices stay firm.

European roasters are taking more Brazilian beans; some U.S. buyers are delaying purchases; and global blends may lean a bit away from premium arabicas.

For consumers, that can mean stickier prices at cafés and supermarkets, especially for arabica-heavy products. Exporters are pressing for swift diplomacy to cool the tariff shock.

Until then, expect Brazil to keep redirecting coffee to buyers willing—or forced—to pay up, while the world’s morning cup quietly reflects the new math.