Key Points
— President Petro publicly overruled Commerce Minister Morales at a cabinet meeting in Ipiales: “No 100% tariffs — we’re not that stupid”
— Essential Ecuadorian imports will enter Colombia at 0%; goods Colombia can produce domestically will face incentives for local substitution
— Ecuador’s 100% “security tax” on Colombian goods still takes effect May 1 — the trade war is now asymmetric rather than mutual
The Colombia Ecuador tariffs escalation took an unexpected turn on Monday when President Gustavo Petro publicly contradicted his own commerce minister, scrapping the 100% retaliatory duties she had announced just 72 hours earlier. Speaking at a cabinet meeting in the border city of Ipiales, Petro was blunt: “No hay aranceles 100%, ministra de Comercio, no somos tan brutos.”
The Rio Times, the Latin American financial news outlet, reports that the reversal breaks the symmetry of what had become Latin America’s most aggressive bilateral trade war since January. Commerce Minister Diana Marcela Morales had announced matching 100% tariffs on all Ecuadorian imports on April 10, responding to Ecuador’s decision to raise its “security tax” from 50% to 100% effective May 1.
What Petro’s Reversal Actually Means
Petro outlined a two-track approach. Everything Colombia needs from Ecuador — raw materials, inputs for domestic industry — will enter at 0% duty. Goods that Colombia can produce domestically but has been importing from Ecuador will face incentives for local production rather than punitive tariffs.
The president also warned that blanket 100% tariffs would “hand the border to the mafia,” driving trade into smuggling channels through the Amazon and uncontrolled crossing points. Colombia exported approximately $1.85 billion to Ecuador in 2025, with a trade surplus exceeding $1 billion — meaning Bogotá has more to lose from a complete rupture.
The Colombia Ecuador Tariffs Timeline
The trade war has escalated in four stages since January. Noboa imposed a 30% “security tariff” on January 21 from Davos. Colombia matched at 30% on 73 product categories, then Ecuador raised to 50%.
Ecuador then escalated to 100% effective May 1. Colombia’s commerce ministry matched at 100% on April 10 — which Petro has now reversed. At the 30% level alone, Colombian imports from Ecuador had already collapsed 66.8%.
Asymmetric War, Political Calculations
The trade conflict is now asymmetric: Ecuador charges 100% on everything Colombian, while Colombia charges 0% on essentials and incentivizes domestic substitution for the rest. Petro framed this as economic pragmatism, but it also reflects political reality — he leaves office in August and cannot afford an inflation spike in border departments like Nariño, where he held Monday’s cabinet meeting.
Ecuador’s position remains unchanged. Noboa’s 100% security tax takes effect May 1 unless Bogotá demonstrates “concrete and effective border security measures.” CAN-mediated negotiations remain suspended. Colombia’s formal complaint before the Andean Community tribunal continues, but Petro has also floated leaving the CAN entirely to join Mercosur — a threat whose credibility depends on whether it survives the transition to Colombia’s next president.
For the 580 Ecuadorian companies that depend on the Colombian market and the border economy built around Rumichaca, the question is whether Petro’s softer stance opens space for de-escalation before May 1 — or whether Noboa reads it as weakness and holds firm.