Key Points
— Peru’s INEI reported 3.68% year-on-year GDP growth in February 2026, beating the 3.1% Reuters consensus by nearly 60 basis points. Retail trade and the broader services sector contributed the most, adding 72 and 66 basis points respectively.
— The data marks the continuation of Peru’s recovery from the 2023 contraction, with most productive sectors logging growth. The IMF projects 2.8% full-year growth for 2026, while the central bank targets approximately 3%.
— The positive economic print landed the same day the sol fell to S/3.43 per dollar after left-wing candidate Roberto Sánchez overtook López Aliaga for second place in the presidential count—a reminder that Peru’s economic fundamentals and its political trajectory are moving in opposite directions.
The economy beat forecasts. The currency fell anyway. In Peru, it is the election—not the data—that sets the price.
Peru GDP in February 2026 came in at 3.68% year-on-year, INEI reported on Wednesday, comfortably above the 3.1% consensus forecast compiled by Reuters and marking a broad-based expansion across most productive sectors. The Rio Times, the Latin American financial news outlet, reports that retail trade and services were the primary drivers, contributing 72 and 66 basis points respectively to the headline figure, while the data underscored the strength of domestic demand in an economy that the IMF projects will grow 2.8% for the full year.
What Drove the Peru GDP Beat
The growth was consumption-led rather than commodity-led. Retail trade’s 72-basis-point contribution reflects continued recovery in household spending, supported by contained inflation (CPI at 2.2% in February), employment gains, and a central bank rate that has been held at 4.25% since late 2025. Services added another 66 basis points, pointing to a domestic economy that is growing on its own fundamentals rather than riding a mining cycle.
The print follows Q4 2025 growth of 3.2% and Q3’s 3.4%, confirming that Peru has sustained above-potential expansion for eight consecutive quarters since emerging from the 2023 El Niño-driven contraction. The central bank’s chief economist had said last week that Q1 growth was likely running near 4%, and the February data supports that trajectory.
The Market Ignored It
The GDP beat was published on the same morning that the sol fell to S/3.4309 per dollar—its weakest level in weeks—after ONPE’s count confirmed Roberto Sánchez in second place, setting up a Keiko-versus-left runoff on June 7. The disconnect is telling: the economic data says Peru is outperforming its own forecasts, but the market is pricing political risk instead.
Eight Presidents, Eight Quarters of Growth
Peru has had eight presidents in ten years, and its last left-wing president was arrested after attempting to dissolve Congress. The economy has managed to grow through all of it—3.1% in 2025, on track for near 3% in 2026—because its institutional framework of an independent central bank, fiscal rules, and copper-and-gold exports has proven more resilient than its political class. Whether that resilience holds through another polarized campaign is the question the sol’s S/3.43 is answering before the economists can.
Related Coverage: Peru Election: Sánchez Takes Second, Dollar Spikes • IMF WEO: Latin America Grows 2.3%