Peru Election: Keiko vs. the Left as Sánchez Overtakes López Aliaga

Updated April 15, 10:00 BRT — Exit polls predicted a right-wing runoff. The count delivered the opposite: a left-wing former Castillo minister will face Keiko on June 7, and the currency is already pricing in the shift.

The Peru election 2026 results crossed the decisive threshold on Wednesday morning when ONPE’s count passed 91% and Roberto Sánchez of Juntos por el Perú overtook Rafael López Aliaga of Renovación Popular for second place. The Rio Times, the Latin American financial news outlet, reports that the overtake—confirmed by El Comercio at 09:57 Lima time with Sánchez at 12.048% versus López Aliaga at 11.887%—sets up a June 7 runoff between Keiko Fujimori and a candidate from Peru’s left who served as a minister under Pedro Castillo.

The Peru Election 2026 Results at 91% Counted

The trajectory was visible for 48 hours but the crossover happened overnight. Sánchez rose from 8.5% in early urban-heavy returns to 11.7% by Tuesday night, then pushed past López Aliaga as southern highland actas from Cusco, Puno, Ayacucho, and Apurímac were processed. López Aliaga’s slide was equally dramatic: he started at nearly 14% in the first returns and has now lost more than 2 points.

Keiko Fujimori remains firmly in first at 16.99%, a position that never wavered. Jorge Nieto dropped to fourth at roughly 11.1%, and Ricardo Belmont sits fifth near 10%. With the remaining 9% of actas coming from precisely the regions where Sánchez is strongest, his lead over López Aliaga is expected to widen further.

Markets React: Sol Falls to S/3.43

The dollar opened at S/3.4309 on Bloomberg on Wednesday morning, a sharp jump from Tuesday’s close of S/3.3940. Kambista CEO Fernando Ruiz said the move was driven directly by Sánchez reaching second place, which “modified market expectations regarding which candidates will pass to the second round.” The environment, he added, “remains highly volatile and subject to new movements as more information becomes known.”

The market fear is a 2021 replay: Castillo defeated Keiko by 44,000 votes in that year’s runoff, producing an unstable presidency that ended in his arrest. Sánchez served in Castillo’s cabinet and is the political heir of Juntos por el Perú’s rural base, and Keiko’s own running mate Luis Galarreta acknowledged days ago that Fuerza Popular would have preferred to face López Aliaga—a concession that the left-wing opponent is the harder fight.

The Galaga Scandal and Institutional Pressure

The election was marred by a logistics failure when Servicios Generales Galaga failed to deliver ballot materials to hundreds of voting stations on April 12, forcing an extraordinary second day of voting on April 13. The JNE has now filed criminal charges against ONPE chief Piero Corvetto, Galaga employees, and a company representative. Transparencia warned against congressional interference in the count.

What Happens Next

The second round is scheduled for June 7. Peru also elected its first bicameral Congress in 34 years—130 diputados and 60 senators—and the fragmentation visible in the presidential race guarantees a divided legislature. For investors watching Latin America’s 2.3% growth trajectory, Peru’s 2.8% IMF projection assumed institutional stability—an assumption that a Keiko-versus-Sánchez contest, with its echoes of 2021’s polarization and Castillo’s chaotic presidency, now directly challenges.

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