Iran Attacks Three Ships in Strait of Hormuz, Seizes Two — Trump Extends Ceasefire Indefinitely but Blockade Stays, Vance Pakistan Trip Cancelled — Ibovespa Crashes −1.65% to 192,888, MERVAL −1.41%, IPSA Breaks Below 11,000 — Brazil and EU Formalise Critical Minerals Task Force at Hannover with Four Projects Under Review — Brazilian Exports to Middle East Fall 26% in March as War Disrupts Trade — Colombia: Petro’s Ex-Right Hand Accuses 20 Officials of Criminal Network Inside Casa de Nariño — COLCAP Breaks Below 200-Day SMA for First Time in 2026 — Argentina: Milei Approval Crashes to 14th of 18 LATAM Leaders — STF Opens Virtual Judgment on Bolsonaro Detention, Decision Friday
Executive Summary
The Big Picture: Today’s Latin American Pulse opens with the most dangerous escalation in the Strait of Hormuz since the war began. Iran’s Revolutionary Guard attacked three commercial vessels and seized two of them Wednesday morning — hours after President Trump reversed his own pledge and extended the ceasefire indefinitely, while maintaining the US naval blockade. VP Vance’s trip to Pakistan was cancelled after Iran refused to attend a second round of talks. Goldman Sachs now projects Brent at $80 per barrel by year-end, embedding a $20 Hormuz premium. The death toll since February 28 has reached approximately 3,400 in Iran, 2,200 in Lebanon, 32 in Gulf states, 23 in Israel, and 13 US service members. The Council on Foreign Relations offered the day’s sharpest analysis: “neither country will lose face by opening Hormuz — as long as the other one does the same.” This is part of The Rio Times‘ comprehensive coverage of Latin American financial markets and economic developments.
The Hormuz shock detonated across LATAM equity markets. Brazil’s Ibovespa crashed 1.65% to 192,888 — its largest single-day drop since the war began — on the convergence of the Petrobras ex-dividend adjustment, ceasefire uncertainty, and a BTG Pactual downgrade of PETR4’s target from $17 to $14. Argentina’s MERVAL fell 1.41% to 2,898,691, and Chile’s IPSA dropped 1.14% to 11,002, breaking below the psychologically critical 11,000 level intraday for the first time since March. The war’s trade impact is now quantifiable: Brazilian exports to the 15-country Middle East region fell 26% in March to $882 million, down from $1.2 billion — a direct consequence of shipping disruptions and sanctions reconfiguration.
But the hemisphere is not only absorbing shocks — it is building new economic architecture. At the Hannover Messe, Brazil and the EU formalised a critical minerals task force with four specific projects under review across lithium, rare earths, and nickel — positioning Brazil as Europe’s strategic alternative to Chinese mineral supply chains. In Colombia, Petro’s ex-right hand Angie Rodríguez detonated the biggest political scandal of the year, accusing 20+ officials of running a criminal network inside the Casa de Nariño. The COLCAP broke below its 200-day simple moving average for the first time in 2026, generating a composite sell signal. In Argentina, CB Global Data placed Milei 14th of 18 LATAM leaders with a 23.5-point negative gap — the widest of his presidency. And in Brasília, the STF opened a virtual judgment on Bolsonaro’s detention that closes Friday, with a 4-0 rejection expected.
Iran Attacks Three Ships in Hormuz — Trump Extends Ceasefire, Keeps Blockade
Wed Apr 23 morning: Iran Revolutionary Guard attacked 3 commercial vessels in Strait of Hormuz, seized 2; US had seized an Iranian ship and boarded a tanker the day before; Trump reversed his pledge and extended ceasefire INDEFINITELY: “until their proposal is submitted and discussions concluded, one way or the other”; US naval blockade continues; 27+ vessels turned back since blockade began; Vance Pakistan trip CANCELLED — Iran refused to attend second round of talks; Iran state media: talks “a waste of time”; Goldman Sachs: Brent $80/bbl by year-end ($20 Hormuz premium); CFR: “mutual opening could be the confidence-building step”; death toll since Feb 28: ~3,400 Iran, 2,200+ Lebanon, 32 Gulf states, 23 Israel, 13 US service members
What Happened
- —The attacks: Iran’s Revolutionary Guard attacked three commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz on Wednesday morning, seizing two of them and further inflaming tensions over the critical waterway. The action came just hours after Trump — in an eleventh-hour reversal of his own pledge not to extend the truce — announced he was prolonging the ceasefire indefinitely “until such time as their proposal is submitted, and discussions are concluded, one way or the other.” The US naval blockade remains in place. The day before, US forces had seized an Iranian ship and boarded a tanker linked to Tehran’s oil trade. Iran’s state media called the talks “a waste of time,” and VP Vance’s planned delegation to Islamabad was cancelled after Tehran declined to participate. Goldman Sachs’ co-head of global commodities research called it “a fairly broad-based and very intense commodity shock” and projected Brent at $80 per barrel by year-end — a $20 premium directly attributable to the Hormuz disruption. The CFR offered the most constructive analytical framework: since both the US and Iran are now complicit in keeping the strait closed, “neither one will lose face by opening it — as long as the other one does the same.”
Key Watch
Iran’s next Hormuz move. US CENTCOM response to ship seizures. Brent reaction. Whether “indefinite” extension stabilises or prolongs uncertainty. Pakistan mediation channel status. Apr 26: Israel-Lebanon ceasefire expiry. Copom Apr 28–29.
RISK: CRITICAL
Markets: Ibovespa Crashes −1.65%, MERVAL −1.41%, IPSA Breaks 11,000
Wed Apr 22: IBOV O196,132.06 H196,132.06 L192,687.29 C192,888.96 (−3,243.10, −1.65%) — biggest daily drop since war began; Petrobras ex-dividend day; BTG cuts PETR4 target $17→$14; Carrefour Q1 Brazil sales −0.8%; USD/BRL 4.9669 (+0.05%); RSI 31–32; IPC Mexico 68,836.92 (+0.04%) stable; MERVAL 2,898,691.74 (−41,408.59, −1.41%); IPSA 11,002.13 (−126.33, −1.14%) — broke below 11,000 intraday (L10,992); COLCAP 2,283.62 (+0.07%); BTC 78,355 (+0.19%) holding $78K
What Happened
- —The Ibovespa reopened after the Tiradentes holiday into what Money Times called a session that “diverged from New York” — falling 1.65% to 192,888 while US indices held up. The crash reflected three simultaneous pressures: the Petrobras ex-dividend adjustment (R$41.2 billion distribution), BTG Pactual’s downgrade of the PETR4 price target from $17 to $14 (though maintaining a buy recommendation with 80% implied upside), and Carrefour’s Q1 earnings miss showing Brazilian sales down 0.8% — with the CFO blaming “very high interest rates” for crushing consumer purchasing power. The MERVAL fell 1.41% to 2,898,691, its largest drop in weeks, as the Adorni scandal and global risk-off combined. Chile’s IPSA dropped 1.14% to 11,002, breaking below 11,000 intraday (L10,992) for the third consecutive red session — a cumulative loss of approximately 4% since Monday. The IPC Mexico stabilised at +0.04% after Tuesday’s 1.82% crash. Bitcoin held remarkably firm at $78,355 (+0.19%), consolidating at multi-week highs. As covered in yesterday’s COLCAP analysis, the 200-day SMA breakdown is now confirmed.
| Index | Wed Close | Change | Context |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ibovespa | 192,888.96 | −1.65% | Biggest drop since war began; PETR4 ex-div; BTG cuts target; RSI 56–65 |
| USD/BRL | 4.9669 | +0.05% | RSI 31–32 (extreme oversold); Lula reciprocity risk unresolved |
| MERVAL | 2,898,691.74 | −1.41% | Largest drop in weeks; Adorni + Milei approval crash; RSI 50–58 |
| IPSA (Chile) | 11,002.13 | −1.14% | 3rd red day; broke 11K intraday (L10,992); ~4% cumulative; RSI 52–60 |
| IPC (Mexico) | 68,836.92 | +0.04% | Stabilised after Tue −1.82% crash; RSI 50–55 |
| COLCAP | 2,283.62 | +0.07% | Flat but below 200-day SMA — sell signal confirmed; RSI 49–55 |
| BTC/USD | 78,355 | +0.19% | Holding $78K; remarkably stable amid equity carnage; RSI 61–65 |
RISK: ELEVATED
Brazil-EU Critical Minerals Task Force — Four Projects Under Review at Hannover
Wed Apr 22: Brazil and EU formalised critical-minerals task force at Hannover Messe 2026 with 4 specific projects under evaluation across lithium, rare earths, and nickel (Valor Econômico); part of 10 bilateral agreements signed between Lula and Chancellor Merz; Brazil pavilion: 2,700m², 140 companies, 300+ represented; 90% renewable electricity matrix; Lula: “cheapest green hydrogen on the planet”; Mercosul-EU agreement enters into force “in two weeks”; 42nd Brazil-Germany Economic Summit running in parallel; 3rd High-Level Intergovernmental Consultations with full ministerial delegations
What Happened
- —The European Union is now formally reviewing four Brazilian critical mineral projects across lithium, rare earths, and nickel, according to Valor Econômico reporting from the Hannover Messe 2026. The structure — a dedicated task force with specific projects under evaluation — transforms what had been a general diplomatic aspiration into an actionable pipeline. The announcement came as part of ten strategic agreements signed between President Lula and German Chancellor Friedrich Merz, covering climate change, infrastructure, artificial intelligence, bioeconomy, defence, and ocean/cerrado research. Brazil is the guest of honour at this year’s fair, occupying 2,700 square metres with 140 companies and 300 more represented across sectors including green hydrogen, digitalisation, circular economy, and advanced industry. Lula used the platform to declare that Brazil “will produce the cheapest green hydrogen on the planet” and highlighted the country’s 90% renewable electricity matrix. The Mercosul-EU trade agreement — decades in negotiation — enters into force in approximately two weeks, creating the framework within which the minerals task force will operate. For a broader view of how these developments fit into the region’s mineral economics, see our Latin America Economy 2026 guide.
Key Watch
Specific project identities and locations. Mercosul-EU entry into force date. EU regulatory recognition of Brazilian sustainability standards. Green hydrogen pricing versus Gulf competitors. Chinese reaction to EU-Brazil mineral diversification.
OUTLOOK: BULLISH
Brazil Exports to Middle East Fall 26% in March — War Disrupts $1.2 Billion Trade Corridor
Brazilian exports to the 15-country Middle East region fell to $882M in March from $1.2B — a 26% decline directly attributable to Hormuz shipping disruptions, sanctions reconfiguration, and elevated insurance premiums; halal food, iron ore, and agricultural commodities most affected; shipping routes diverted around the Cape of Good Hope adding 10–14 days transit; war insurance premiums for Gulf-bound cargo up 300%+ since February
What Happened
- —The war’s impact on Brazil’s trade with the Middle East is now quantifiable: March exports to the 15-country region fell 26% to $882 million, down from $1.2 billion in the prior period. The decline reflects the cascading disruption of the Hormuz closure — not only direct shipping blockages but the secondary effects of elevated war-risk insurance premiums (up more than 300% since February for Gulf-bound cargo), route diversions around the Cape of Good Hope that add 10–14 days of transit time, and the sanctions reconfiguration that has frozen certain financial channels. Brazil’s halal food exports, iron ore shipments to Gulf steel mills, and agricultural commodity flows to the UAE and Saudi Arabia are the most affected categories. The data quantifies what had been an anecdotal concern: the Hormuz shock is not just an oil story — it is disrupting real trade in goods that have nothing to do with petroleum. For context, see our Global Economy Briefing on how the commodity shock is propagating through global trade flows.
RISK: ELEVATED
Colombia: Petro’s Ex-Right Hand Accuses 20 Officials of Criminal Network in Casa de Nariño
Tue Apr 22: Angie Rodríguez (ex-DAPRE director, Petro’s closest aide until Jan 2026, now Fondo Adaptación chief) gave explosive Semana interview: accuses 20+ officials of running “organised criminal network” inside presidency; names Carlos Carrillo (UNGRD director) and Juliana Guerrero; claims extortion (demanded “50 de los grandes”), illegal surveillance, fake academic credentials, campaign to remove her from power; “I have no intention of committing suicide” (threat signal); her house was broken into; filed formal criminal complaint; De la Espriella: “Petro’s government functions as a criminal gang — I will make them pay”; Lizcano: “Casa de Nariño is the house of terror”; Noticias Caracol, El Colombiano, Infobae, Portafolio, Vanguardia all running front-page
What Happened
- —Angie Rodríguez — who served as director of DAPRE (the administrative department of the presidency) and was considered Gustavo Petro’s most trusted aide until her reassignment in January 2026 — gave an explosive interview to Semana’s director Yesid Lancheros on Tuesday, accusing at least 20 government officials of operating what she described as an “organised criminal network” inside the Casa de Nariño. She named UNGRD director Carlos Carrillo and the controversial Juliana Guerrero as central figures, alleging that Guerrero used fake academic credentials, controlled contracting across multiple state entities through the Guerrero sisters, and orchestrated a campaign to discredit and remove Rodríguez from power. Rodríguez revealed she had been extorted — receiving messages demanding money (“50 de los grandes”) from individuals connected to the government — and that her home had been broken into. She filed a formal criminal complaint and stated on camera: “I have no intention of committing suicide” — a phrase universally understood in Colombian politics as a declaration that any harm to her should be investigated as connected to the accusations. Presidential candidate Abelardo de la Espriella responded: “Petro’s government functions as a criminal gang — I will make them pay.” Candidate Mauricio Lizcano called the Casa de Nariño “the house of terror.” The story dominated Colombian media across Semana, Noticias Caracol, El Colombiano, Infobae, Portafolio, and Vanguardia.
Key Watch
Petro’s response. Fiscalía investigation. Carrillo and Guerrero counterstatements. Impact on May 25 election dynamics. Rodríguez’s personal security. COLCAP reaction.
RISK: CRITICAL
COLCAP Breaks Below 200-Day SMA — First Time in 2026, Composite Sell Signal Forming
Tue Apr 22: COLCAP closed at 2,282.09 — below the 200-day SMA for the first time in 2026; MACD histogram at 1.32 (narrowest positive reading of the year); MACD line (13.60) and signal (12.28) converging toward bearish cross; any negative histogram print confirms all three conditions simultaneously: 200-day breakdown + MACD bearish cross + RSI signal below 50 — strongest multi-indicator sell signal since February–March correction
What Happened
- —As detailed in yesterday’s dedicated COLCAP analysis, Colombia’s benchmark index closed below its 200-day simple moving average on Tuesday for the first time this year — a technically significant development that, combined with the MACD’s convergence toward a bearish cross and the RSI signal line below 50, is generating the strongest composite sell signal since the February–March correction. The fundamental backdrop — oil repricing uncertainty, the Angie Rodríguez political scandal, the Catatumbo armed conflict, the Ecuador trade war, and the approaching May 25 election — provides the macro rationale for what the technicals are now confirming. The MACD histogram at 1.32 is the narrowest positive reading of 2026; any negative print on Wednesday would complete the triple confirmation.
RISK: ELEVATED
Argentina: Milei Approval Crashes to 14th of 18 LATAM Leaders
CB Global Data April 2026 regional ranking: Milei placed 14th/18 Latin American presidents; positive image 36.2%, negative 59.7% — gap of 23.5 points, widest of his presidency; fell 6.1pp in a single month (from 42.3% in March); Giacobbe & Asociados: 31.3% of Argentines identify Milei government as most corrupt since 1983 (second only to Cristina); Adorni scandal (Aruba trip, first-class flights, enrichment investigation) driving collapse; biographer Nicolás Márquez: “Adorni is politically dead”; Ley Hojarasca got dictamen but floor vote delayed to after Adorni Apr 29 report
What Happened
- —CB Global Data’s April 2026 regional approval ranking placed Javier Milei 14th out of 18 Latin American leaders — a staggering fall for a president who entered office as the region’s most-watched reformer. His positive image collapsed to 36.2% from 42.3% in March, a 6.1 percentage-point drop in a single month, while his negative reading surged to 59.7%. The 23.5-point gap between positive and negative is the widest of his presidency. As our dedicated analysis detailed, the Adorni scandal is the proximate catalyst — the Aruba trip, first-class flights, and enrichment investigation have given the opposition a corruption narrative that sticks because it contradicts Milei’s foundational promise of austerity. Giacobbe & Asociados polling shows 31.3% of Argentines now identify the Milei government as the most corrupt since the return to democracy in 1983, second only to Cristina Fernández de Kirchner. Milei’s own biographer, Nicolás Márquez, publicly demanded Adorni’s resignation: “He is politically dead, finished.” The Ley Hojarasca obtained its dictamen on Tuesday with 35 signatures, but the floor vote has been delayed until after Adorni’s April 29 congressional appearance — the first since the scandal erupted.
Key Watch
Apr 29: Adorni congressional report — does Milei attend? Adorni removal decision. Ley Hojarasca floor vote timing. MERVAL positioning ahead of Apr 29. PyME emergency counter-legislation. 2027 election calculus.
RISK: ELEVATED
STF Opens Virtual Judgment on Bolsonaro Detention — Decision Closes Friday
This week: STF Primeira Turma opened extraordinary virtual judgment on former President Jair Bolsonaro’s detention; session closes 23:59 Friday April 24; based on March 5 and February precedents, a 4-0 outcome rejecting the defence motion is near-consensus expectation; Moraes leads the panel; Cármen Lúcia’s vote text will be watched for any language shift on humanitarian considerations; Bolsonaro detained at 19th Military Police Battalion’s Papudinha facility since 2025; ankle-monitor tampering episode undermined prior defence credibility; Eduardo Bolsonaro difamação trial also in progress
What Happened
- —As we reported yesterday, Brazil’s Supreme Federal Tribunal opened a new extraordinary virtual judgment on former President Bolsonaro’s detention this week. The session closes at 23:59 on Friday, April 24. Based on the March 5 precedent — when the court unanimously rejected a house-arrest petition in a 4-0 vote — and the February humanitarian-detention denial, the outcome is near-universally expected to be another rejection. The signals worth watching are not the final tally but the written vote texts: any meaningful language shift from Justice Moraes on the conditions of detention, or from Cármen Lúcia on humanitarian considerations, would be read by defence lawyers as an opening for a future petition. Separately, the Eduardo Bolsonaro defamation trial triggered an immediate reaction from Moraes this week. The former president remains detained at the 19th Military Police Battalion’s Papudinha facility, where the court has determined he receives adequate medical care.
Key Watch
Friday 23:59: Virtual session closes. Vote text language from Moraes and Cármen Lúcia. Defence’s next legal strategy. Eduardo Bolsonaro case trajectory. Impact on 2026 presidential race dynamics.
OUTLOOK: WATCH
Regional Snapshot
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Peru, Mexico & Earnings Peru’s post-Corvetto institutional reset continues: Bernardo Pachas Serrano has taken over as interim ONPE chief, the Fiscal de la Nación’s criminal investigation of ONPE officials is underway, and the ONPE count stands at 93.85% with Sánchez leading López Aliaga by approximately 14,785 votes. The June 7 segunda vuelta between Keiko Fujimori and the second-place finisher is confirmed. In Mexico, the IPC stabilised at +0.04% after Tuesday’s 1.82% crash, but the triple security crisis (Teotihuacán, Chihuahua, UN Commissioner) continues to weigh on sentiment. On the earnings front, Carrefour reported Q1 Brazil sales down 0.8% — with the CFO specifically blaming Selic-driven consumer weakness — missing analyst expectations of +0.6%. Q1 earnings season is now underway across LATAM. Previous Pulse editions. |
Lula-US Crisis & Region The Brazil-US diplomatic crisis over the PF delegate expulsion remains unresolved: Lula’s threat of “reciprocity” from Hannover has not yet been followed by action, but the replacement of the expelled delegate was already formalised in the Diário Oficial. The broader Lula Hannover agenda — “Brazil tired of being invisible,” “Nobel for Trump,” Iran = “war of foolishness” — positions Brasília as increasingly willing to challenge Washington publicly. Bolivia’s official cómputo is confirming the opposition’s 7/9 governorship sweep. Ecuador’s Noboa deepened the US anti-narco alliance with a DEA chief meeting in Guayaquil, while the NYT dairy-farm bombing investigation continues to generate pressure. Cuba’s humanitarian crisis persists with blackouts of up to 20 hours daily. Previous Pulse editions. |