Colombia External Debt Jumps Nearly US$30 Billion to 55% of GDP

The Banco de la República data sets Colombia’s external-debt position at a level the country has not seen since 2021 in nominal terms, with a public-sector burden expanding faster than the private side and an interest-service bill that has now reached nearly US$1 billion per month, all of which leaves the Petro government’s final fiscal year heavily constrained ahead of the May 31 presidential election.

How big is the Colombian debt jump?

Banco de la República, the Colombian central bank, reported gross external debt of US$252.168 billion in February 2026. The figure equals 55% of GDP, against US$222.573 billion or 52.9% of GDP one year earlier. The absolute increase of US$29.595 billion over twelve months is the largest year-on-year jump in nominal external debt the country has recorded outside of currency-translation effects in recent decades. The stock-to-GDP ratio rose by 2.1 percentage points.

The number is the central reference for the Colombian sovereign-debt picture. Most other sovereign-rating frameworks combine external debt with domestic obligations to produce gross general-government debt, which for Colombia is now in the range of 60% of GDP. The external portion is more sensitive to currency moves and foreign-investor sentiment, which makes the rapid increase a more visible signal to international markets, per La República.

Who owes the money?

The public sector is the main driver. Government obligations to foreign creditors reached US$157.130 billion in February, equivalent to 34.3% of GDP, up from 31.9% one year earlier. Of that public stock, long-term debt accounts for US$155.798 billion and short-term debt for US$1.333 billion. The Petro administration has continued to issue international bonds while also expanding domestic Treasury Securities issuance.

Source: Banco de la República monthly external debt statistical bulletin; La República and El Colombiano analysis.

The private sector accounts for US$95.038 billion, or 20.7% of GDP. Private external debt has been broadly stable as a share of GDP, with most operations concentrated in long-term corporate obligations (US$61.901 billion) versus short-term commercial financing (US$33.136 billion). The asymmetry between public and private growth is the central political story: the Petro administration is the engine of the increase.

What is the Petro-Banco de la República dispute?

In early March 2026, President Petro publicly claimed on social media that his administration had reduced Colombia’s external debt. Banco de la República data published two days later contradicted the assertion: external debt rose by US$25.848 billion during the 2025 calendar year, reaching US$246.801 billion at year-end against US$220.953 billion at the close of 2024. The GDP ratio rose from 52.7% to 53.8%.

The exchange continues a pattern of public confrontation between the Presidency and the central bank, an institution that under Colombia’s constitution operates with formal independence. Banco de la República has been increasingly direct in publishing data that contradicts the administration’s narrative, an institutional posture that has sharpened as the May 31 presidential election approaches, per Infobae Colombia.

What is driving the debt increase?

Three forces explain the public-sector trajectory. First, structural fiscal deficits: the Colombian central government has run consistently negative primary balances since 2020, with the gap widening under the current administration’s social-spending program. Second, debt-service refinancing: a substantial portion of the new issuance covers maturing bonds rather than financing new spending. Third, Ecopetrol contributions: as the state oil company’s profits decline (down 7.7% in Q1 2026), the government’s reliance on debt versus dividend revenue increases.

The Iran war oil-price shock adds a complication. Colombia is a net oil exporter at the trade-account level, so higher Brent should support the external accounts. But peso appreciation against the dollar, which the government has used to its advantage in reducing the dollar-denominated stock of debt, has eaten into Ecopetrol’s peso-denominated revenue and weakened the fiscal contribution from the energy sector. The net effect is that even rising oil prices have not yet produced clear external-debt relief.

What should investors and analysts watch next?

• May 2026 sovereign-rating actions: Moody’s downgraded Ecopetrol earlier this year. The next obvious step is a sovereign action. The 55% external-debt level remains within investment-grade thresholds but the trajectory matters.
• 2027 budget projections: the new administration taking office in August 2026 will inherit a debt-service obligation of roughly US$1 billion per month and a structural deficit. The early budget projections will signal credibility.
• USD/COP trajectory: the peso’s 13% appreciation over twelve months has been the single largest factor mechanically reducing the dollar-equivalent debt burden. Bank of America’s COP$3,500 year-end target is the consensus reference; sharper appreciation would compound the relief, depreciation would reverse it.
• TES bond demand: the government has been substituting external financing with domestic peso bond issuance. The May auction cleared at 13.48% with bid-to-cover of 1.4x, indicating modest but sufficient demand. Weakening auctions would force a return to external markets.
• Petro budget veto pressure: the outgoing administration is signaling intention to push social-spending priorities into the final budget, potentially worsening the fiscal trajectory. The Council of State has already moved on pension policy in ways that constrain other expenditures.

Frequently Asked Questions

Is 55% of GDP a high external-debt ratio?

It is elevated by historical Colombian standards but not yet at distress levels. Colombia’s external debt to GDP averaged 30-40% in the pre-pandemic era, climbed sharply during 2020-2021 as the country accessed IMF emergency credit, and has remained near current levels since. Brazil, by comparison, runs gross general-government debt above 75% of GDP but external debt below 30% of GDP because most obligations are denominated in reais. Argentina’s external debt has historically been the regional outlier above 60% of GDP.

Who are Colombia’s main external creditors?

The mix combines multilateral lenders including the IMF, World Bank, and Inter-American Development Bank; international bondholders who buy Colombia’s USD-denominated sovereign bonds; and a smaller share of bilateral and commercial-bank financing. The private-sector external debt is held mostly by corporate parents of Colombian subsidiaries and by international commercial banks providing trade and operational financing.

What is the political significance of the dispute with the central bank?

Banco de la República operates with constitutional independence and includes both government appointees and independent technical members on its board. The Petro administration has periodically clashed with the institution over interest-rate policy and now over fiscal-data interpretation. Each public dispute incrementally erodes the perception of central-bank independence, although the institution has held its policy positions through the cycle.

How does this affect the May 31 election?

Fiscal management is a top-three issue in the campaign. Right-of-center candidates point to the US$30 billion debt increase as evidence of Petro mismanagement. Petro-aligned candidates argue that social investment justifies higher borrowing and that the GDP ratio is stable. The data favors the critics but the political effect depends heavily on whether voters connect debt to inflation, peso stability and growth.

What would trigger a sovereign-rating downgrade?

The clearest triggers would be: external debt rising above 60% of GDP, fiscal deficits widening beyond Banco de la República forecasts, peso depreciation that lifts the dollar-equivalent debt back toward US$260 billion, or political-institutional disruption ahead of the August 2026 government transition. The rating agencies have all maintained Colombia at investment grade so far, with negative outlooks at several.

Connected Coverage

Related Rio Times coverage: Colombia’s Ecopetrol posts worst Q1 since pandemic · Petro confirms ELN bombing in Catatumbo · IEA says world oil reserves draining at record pace.

Published: 2026-05-13T21:30:00-03:00 · Updated: 2026-05-13T21:30:00-03:00 · Dateline: BOGOTÁ