Bolivia’s First-Ever Gubernatorial Runoff Delivers a Verdict: Opposition Sweeps Seven of Nine Governorships, Paz’s Patria Coalition Retains Only La Paz and Beni — Velasco Wins Santa Cruz in a Landslide (57.08%), Opposition Takes Chuquisaca, Oruro, and Tarija — Hormuz Ceasefire Expires Tuesday-Wednesday: Markets Open to the Week’s Defining Binary — Iran Reopened Friday but US Blockade Remains, Pakistan Talks Over Weekend, Trump Claims Nuclear Deal Close — Peru Dead Heat Hardens at 93.5%: Sánchez 12.01% vs López Aliaga 11.92%, Gap ~13,000 Votes, 4,250+ Observed Actas Sent to JEE — Ibovespa 195,733 Enters the Petrobras Cut-Off / Ceasefire-Expiry Double Catalyst Week, Real at R$4.9771 (RSI 28.88) — Bitcoin Retreats to $74,470 from Friday’s $77,140 Peak
Executive Summary
The Big Picture: Today’s Latin American Pulse opens with Bolivia’s political earthquake. Sunday’s first-ever gubernatorial runoffs delivered a decisive rejection of President Rodrigo Paz’s Patria coalition: the opposition swept all five departments that went to the ballot, winning Santa Cruz in a landslide (Velasco 57.08%), plus Chuquisaca, Oruro, and Tarija — though SIREPRE data shows Patria recovered Beni (Egüez 53.01%). Combined with first-round results and the La Paz default proclamation, the Patria coalition now controls just two of Bolivia’s nine governorships — La Paz and Beni — while the opposition holds the economic heartland (Santa Cruz, 35% of GDP), the southern belt, the highlands, and the Amazonian west. This is the weakest subnational position for any Bolivian president since the 2005 decentralisation reform, and it fundamentally constrains Paz’s ability to advance constitutional, energy, and lithium-sector reform. For the IMF’s projected 3.3% contraction in 2026, the question is no longer whether Bolivia declines, but who governs the decline. This is part of The Rio Times‘ comprehensive coverage of Latin American financial markets and economic developments.
Markets open Monday to the week’s defining binary: the Iran-US ceasefire expires Tuesday-Wednesday (April 21–22). Friday’s Hormuz reopening crashed Brent 9% below $90 and triggered a 7% single-session loss in Petrobras, but the Iranian Revolutionary Guard’s “new order” (mined route, forced diversion, cargo tolls, military vessel ban) and the continued US naval blockade of Iranian ports mean the reopening is conditional and reversible. Weekend Pakistan-mediated talks occurred; Trump claims a deal is close and asserts Iran will suspend its nuclear programme and transfer 441 kg of enriched uranium. Tehran maintains “nothing is certain.” If the ceasefire is extended or a framework deal emerges, the post-Hormuz oil curve (BofA: $93 Brent 2026, $78 2027) becomes the base case. If it collapses, Brent snaps back toward $100 and every LATAM asset must reprice. Tuesday is simultaneously the Petrobras dividend cut-off on B3 — the R$41.2 billion distribution approved at last week’s AGM — making it the most consequential single trading day for Brazil in April.
In Lima, the dead heat has hardened. At 93.5–93.6% of actas processed, Roberto Sánchez holds 12.007% against López Aliaga’s 11.920% — a gap of approximately 13,000 votes, wider than Thursday’s 6,600 as the final rural actas continue to favour Sánchez. But the count has effectively stalled: only a trickle of regular actas remains, and the decisive variable is now the 4,250+ observed and impugned actas (4.5% of total per CNN en Español) that must be individually evaluated by Jurados Electorales Especiales. Transparencia declared the elections “credible and transparent” despite the Lima logistics failures, but López Aliaga has offered 20,000 soles for evidence of fraud. The JNE’s SecGen Yessica Clavijo provided an estimated timeline for final results — likely not before late April at the earliest, with formal segunda vuelta confirmation around May 15.
Risk Snapshot
| Country | Key Driver | Risk Level |
|---|---|---|
| Bolivia | Opposition sweeps 7/9 governorships; Patria retains only La Paz + Beni; SC landslide (Velasco 57%); Paz weakened; reform agenda constrained | ELEVATED |
| Global / Oil | Ceasefire expires Tue-Wed Apr 21–22; Hormuz open but conditional; Pakistan talks over weekend; US blockade remains; BofA: $93 Brent 2026 if deal holds | ELEVATED |
| Peru | ONPE 93.5%: Sánchez 12.01% vs RLA 11.92%; gap ~13K votes (widening); 4,250+ observed actas → JEE; Transparencia: “credible”; López Aliaga: 20K soles reward | CRITICAL |
| Brazil | IBOV 195,733 (3rd fall); Tue Apr 22 = PETR dividend cut-off + ceasefire expiry; real R$4.9771 (RSI 28.88 extreme oversold); Copom Apr 28–29 | BULLISH |
Bolivia: The Opposition Sweeps Seven of Nine Governorships — Paz’s Coalition Faces Its Weakest Subnational Position Since Decentralisation
SIREPRE results Sun Apr 19 (96–99% actas): Santa Cruz — Juan Pablo Velasco (Libre) 57.08% vs Otto Ritter (SC para Todos); Beni — Tito Egüez (Patria-Unidos) 53.01% vs Hugo Vargas (MNR); Chuquisaca — Luis Ayllón (Alianza Gente Nueva) leads Franz García (Patria-Unidos) by narrow margin; Oruro — Edgar Sánchez (Alianza Jacha-Jakisa) ~52% vs Óscar Chambi (Patria-Oruro); Tarija — opposition (Soruco/Camino Democrático) defeats Adrián Oliva (Patria); first-round resolved: Potosí (Joaquino/Alianza Social), Pando (De Paiva/Libre), Cochabamba (Loza/Evo-aligned); La Paz — Revilla (Patria) proclaimed after NGP withdrawal; NET RESULT: Patria holds 2/9 (La Paz + Beni); opposition controls 7/9 including Santa Cruz (35% of GDP); Bolivia’s first-ever gubernatorial runoff; 3.42M voters participated; OEA observation team deployed; 152 complaints reported by Defensoría during voting
What Happened
- —The sweep: Bolivia’s first-ever gubernatorial runoffs delivered a result that no polling had projected with this severity. The opposition won four of the five departments that went to a second round on Sunday — Santa Cruz, Chuquisaca, Oruro, and Tarija — while President Rodrigo Paz’s Patria coalition salvaged only Beni (Egüez 53.01%). In Santa Cruz, the marquee contest, Juan Pablo Velasco of the Libre alliance won in a landslide with 57.08% against Otto Ritter — a 14-point margin in the department that produces approximately 35% of Bolivia’s GDP. In Oruro, Edgar Sánchez of the Jacha-Jakisa alliance took roughly 52%. In Chuquisaca, Luis Ayllón (Gente Nueva) edged past Patria’s Franz García by a narrow margin. In Tarija, the opposition’s María René Soruco defeated Patria’s Adrián Oliva. Combined with the first-round outcomes — Potosí (Joaquino/Alianza Social), Pando (De Paiva/Libre), and Cochabamba (Loza/Evo-aligned, non-Patria) — and La Paz where Revilla was proclaimed by default after NGP’s withdrawal, the Patria coalition now controls just two of nine governorships: La Paz and Beni.
- —The process: Voting began at 08:00 and closed at 16:00 across all five departments, with the TSE publishing SIREPRE preliminary data from approximately 18:30 local time. The Defensoría del Pueblo reported 152 complaints during the half-day session — a manageable number for a process that engaged 3.42 million registered voters. The OEA observation mission, funded by an international coalition including Brazil, South Korea, Spain, and the United States, monitored throughout. The results remain preliminary (SIREPRE, 96–99% of actas) and must be validated by official cómputo, but the margins in Santa Cruz, Beni, and Oruro are considered irreversible.
Why It Matters
This is the weakest subnational position for any Bolivian president since the 2005 decentralisation reforms that created elected governorships. Paz entered the runoffs needing to hold at least three departments to maintain a credible claim to national governance beyond the presidential palace; he exits with two, one of them (La Paz) won by default. The implications cascade through every dimension of Bolivian policy. Constitutional reform — which requires departmental cooperation — becomes effectively impossible without opposition buy-in. Lithium-sector restructuring, which depends on departmental mining authorities, must now negotiate with governors who owe nothing to the central government. The IMF’s projected 3.3% contraction in 2026 will be managed by a fragmented political structure in which the president controls fiscal policy but not the territorial execution of economic programmes. Santa Cruz’s new governor, Velasco, inherits the country’s agricultural export engine and its most dynamic private sector — his policy orientation will shape foreign investment, soy-trade flows, and the bilateral relationship with Brazil’s agribusiness sector. For LATAM allocators, Bolivia moves from “contracting economy with political uncertainty” to “contracting economy with confirmed political fragmentation.”
Key Watch
Official cómputo validation (days). Velasco’s first policy signals in Santa Cruz. Paz-opposition cohabitation framework. Lithium policy trajectory. Constitutional reform feasibility. IMF Article IV review. Debt sustainability under fragmented governance. Evo-aligned Cochabamba (Loza) positioning.
RISK: ELEVATED
Hormuz Ceasefire Expires Tuesday-Wednesday: The Week’s Defining Binary for Every LATAM Market
Status entering Monday: Strait declared “completely open” by Iran FM Araghchi on Fri Apr 17 for “remaining ceasefire period”; Brent crashed 9% below $90 Friday, WTI hit $83; but Revolutionary Guard maintains “new order” (mined route, forced diversion, tolls, military ban); US naval blockade of Iranian ports STILL ACTIVE; Pakistan-mediated talks occurred over weekend; Trump claims deal “close,” asserts Iran will suspend nuclear programme + ship 441kg uranium; Iranian official: “nothing certain”; Israel-Lebanon 10-day ceasefire to Apr 26; France-UK working on post-war Hormuz plan (may need UN/EU mandate, Germany may join); BofA revised Brent: $93 in 2026, $78 in 2027, LT $75; Deutsche Bank: “resolution more likely than not”; Goldman: $100+ if strait re-closes for another month; World Bank pre-war: Brent below $60 in 2026; CEASEFIRE EXPIRES TUE-WED APR 21–22 = same day as Petrobras dividend cut-off
What Happened
- —The weekend talks: Pakistan-mediated negotiations between US and Iranian delegations took place over the weekend in Islamabad, following Friday’s dramatic Hormuz reopening. The talks focused on a proposed three-page memorandum of understanding that would cover: the release of approximately $20 billion in frozen Iranian assets, the transfer of Iran’s 441 kg of enriched uranium to the United States, and the framework for a durable post-conflict Hormuz regime. Trump characterised the talks positively and reiterated his claim that Iran has agreed to suspend its nuclear programme indefinitely. Iranian sources maintained their standard caveat: no agreement is final until everything is agreed. The Israel-Lebanon 10-day ceasefire — which began Thursday evening and runs to April 26 — provides a parallel track of de-escalation that bolsters the broader peace architecture.
- —The binary: Markets open Monday to a clean binary event. If the ceasefire is extended or a framework deal is announced before the April 21–22 expiry, the post-Hormuz oil curve solidifies: BofA’s $93 Brent for 2026 becomes the new consensus, Petrobras re-rates to a lower but sustainable earnings trajectory, oil importers (Chile, Mexico, Central America) rally, and the global risk-on rotation that pushed BTC to $77,140 on Friday resumes. If the ceasefire collapses — because the Revolutionary Guard’s “new order” reasserts itself, because the uranium-transfer issue proves unbridgeable, or because domestic Iranian politics prevent the deal — Brent snaps back toward $100, the Hormuz premium returns, and Friday’s entire move reverses. There is no middle ground: the strait is either open or closed, and Tuesday’s date is hard.
Why It Matters
For Latin America, Tuesday April 22 is the most consequential single day of the month — and it happens to be the same day as the Petrobras dividend cut-off on B3. If peace advances: Brazil’s Ibovespa likely stabilises and begins recovering from its three-session pullback as the oil-drag on Petrobras eases; the real extends its rally below R$4.97 toward year-end consensus of R$5.37 (already looking too conservative); Chile and Mexico continue their oil-importer relief trade; Colombia’s Ecopetrol re-rates lower but the broader COLCAP benefits from risk-on; and Bitcoin, gold, and risk assets broadly continue the rotation that began Friday. If peace fails: Petrobras rallies on $100 Brent, the Ibovespa rises mechanically but the real weakens on inflation fears, Chile and Mexico reverse, and the entire regional positioning unwinds. The Deutsche Bank assessment — “resolution more likely than not in coming weeks, even if the path is not linear” — is the market’s central case. But the tails are fat.
Key Watch
TODAY Mon Apr 20: Weekend talk outcome signals. Brent opening level. TUE APR 22: Ceasefire expiry + Petrobras cut-off (B3). Iran Revolutionary Guard compliance. US blockade status. Trump statements cycle. France-UK Hormuz plan. Israel-Lebanon ceasefire (to Apr 26). Goldman $100+ re-closure scenario.
RISK: ELEVATED
Peru: The Dead Heat Hardens at 93.5% — Sánchez Leads by 13,000 Votes, but 4,250+ Observed Actas Are the Final Variable
ONPE at 93.561% (Sun Apr 19 late): Keiko Fujimori 17.054%, Roberto Sánchez 12.007% (1,890,544 votes), Rafael López Aliaga 11.921% (1,877,454 votes), Jorge Nieto 11.062%; gap Sánchez-to-RLA: ~13,090 votes (0.086 pp) — widened from Thu’s 6,605 as final rural actas arrived; count effectively stalled at ~93.5% with regular actas nearly exhausted; 4,250+ observed/impugned actas (4.5% of total, per CNN en Español) now with JEE for individual evaluation; Transparencia: elections “credible and transparent” despite Lima logistics failures; López Aliaga offering 20,000 soles reward for fraud evidence; JNE SecGen Clavijo provided estimated results timeline; 2.3M+ Peruvians voted blank or null; Sánchez leads in 11 regions (Amazonas, Apurímac, Ayacucho, Cajamarca, Cusco, Huancavelica, Huánuco, Madre de Dios, Moquegua, Puno, San Martín); López Aliaga leads in Lima + overseas; segunda vuelta Jun 7; JNE confirmation ~May 15
What Happened
- —The gap widens — slightly: Between Thursday (93.07%, gap 6,605 votes) and Sunday evening (93.561%, gap ~13,090 votes), Sánchez extended his lead as the final trickle of rural actas from his highland strongholds was processed. At 93.561%, Sánchez holds 1,890,544 votes (12.007%) against López Aliaga’s 1,877,454 (11.921%). The gap of 0.086 percentage points represents approximately 13,000 votes — meaningful enough that a full reversal through the remaining observed actas is mathematically unlikely, but narrow enough that the final margin could tighten significantly. The regular count is now effectively complete: only a handful of actas remain to be processed through the standard ONPE pipeline.
- —The JEE phase begins: The 4,250+ observed and impugned actas — approximately 4.5% of the total — have now been transferred to the Jurados Electorales Especiales for individual evaluation. This is a different process from the standard ONPE count: each acta must be examined for the specific irregularity that caused its observation (missing data, form-filling errors, signature issues), and the JEE must determine whether the underlying votes can be incorporated, must be re-counted, or must be annulled. Transparencia, Peru’s most authoritative electoral observation group, declared the elections “credible and transparent” in its initial assessment, while acknowledging the Lima material-distribution failures that extended voting to April 13. López Aliaga, for his part, has offered a 20,000 soles reward for anyone providing evidence of fraud — a bounty system that, regardless of its success, maintains the delegitimisation narrative in the public sphere.
Why It Matters
The widening of the gap from 6,600 to 13,000 votes shifts the probability — though not the certainty — toward a Keiko-vs-Sánchez segunda vuelta. A 13,000-vote lead with only the observed actas remaining means López Aliaga would need to gain a net ~13,000 from the JEE process, which is possible but would require the observed actas to skew heavily toward his territory (Lima, overseas) rather than being geographically distributed. The more consequential development is Transparencia’s “credible and transparent” declaration, which undermines López Aliaga’s fraud narrative from the institutional centre. If the most respected Peruvian observation group says the election was clean, the annulment petitions and street-mobilisation strategy lose their institutional anchor — even if they retain political energy. For markets, the shift is from “binary uncertainty” to “probable Sánchez with residual reversal risk” — which means the sol and BVL should begin pricing Castillista economic risk into the June 7 matchup, rather than continuing to price uncertainty about who the opponent will be.
Key Watch
JEE observed-acta evaluation: pace, geographic composition, individual rulings. Gap trajectory as observed actas resolved. López Aliaga 20K-soles bounty effectiveness. Annulment petition JEE rulings (22+). Transparencia monitoring of JEE phase. Sol and BVL reaction to probability shift. JNE timeline for oficial proclamation. Jun 7 segunda vuelta Keiko-vs-Sánchez framing.
RISK: CRITICAL
Brazil: The Ibovespa Enters the Most Consequential Week of April — Ceasefire Expiry and Petrobras Cut-Off Collide on Tuesday
IBOV closed Fri at 195,733.51 (−0.55%, 3rd straight fall); opened +1% Fri but reversed on PETR4 −7% Brent crash; week −0.55%; month still +4.5%; YTD >20%; USD/BRL closed Fri 4.9787 → weekend 4.9771 (RSI 28.88 — extreme oversold, deepest since rally began); Petrobras AGM resolved: R$41.2B dividends, Mello chairman, R$114B capex; B3 dividend cut-off TUE APR 22 (same day ceasefire expires); ex-date Wed Apr 23; Copom Apr 28–29 (Selic 14.75%); Focus IPCA 4.71%; Prisma deficit improvement; Lula 39.2% CNT/MDA; Adorni witnesses testify today (Rucci + Trimarchi)
What Happened
- —The setup: The Ibovespa enters Monday after three consecutive sessions of decline — Wednesday 197,737, Thursday 196,818, Friday 195,733 — erasing the top of the 18-nominal-record rally but maintaining the structural uptrend (month still +4.5%, YTD >20%). The pullback was driven entirely by Petrobras’s oil-price sensitivity: Friday’s 7% single-session crash in PETR4 accounted for the majority of the index’s decline, while the broader market (banks, Vale, utilities, consumer) held steady or rose. The real, meanwhile, continued to strengthen — closing Friday at R$4.9787 and extending slightly over the weekend to R$4.9771 — with the RSI at 28.88, the deepest oversold reading since the April rally began. This is the market’s clearest signal: international capital is treating lower oil as net positive for Brazil’s macro fundamentals, even as it mechanically hurts the index’s largest constituent.
- —Tuesday’s double catalyst: April 22 is the collision point. Petrobras’s dividend cut-off on B3 means that investors must hold shares through Tuesday’s close to receive the R$41.2 billion distribution (R$0.62622908/share in two JCP tranches, May 20 and June 22). This typically creates support for the stock in the days before the cut-off. Simultaneously, the Iran-US ceasefire expires April 21–22, which means Brent’s direction — and therefore Petrobras‘s direction — will be determined by geopolitics on the same day. If peace holds and Brent stabilises at $85–90, PETR4 absorbs the lower oil price but benefits from dividend capture and the R$114B capex narrative. If ceasefire collapses, Brent spikes, PETR4 rallies on earnings, and the index moves higher mechanically — but the real weakens on inflation fears. The Copom meeting April 28–29, just six days later, will then have to decide Selic policy under whichever oil scenario materialises.
Key Watch
TODAY Mon: Brent opening level + weekend talk signals. TUE APR 22: Petrobras dividend cut-off + ceasefire expiry. RSI 28.88 bounce risk on USD/BRL. Wed Apr 23: ex-date. Copom Apr 28–29. Mello’s first board meeting. IPCA trajectory. October election framing.
OUTLOOK: BULLISH
Bitcoin Retreats to $74,470 Over the Weekend — Friday’s Hormuz Euphoria Meets Iran Uncertainty
BTC/USD: Fri close $77,140 (strongest since Feb); weekend Sunday candle O73,834 H74,769 L73,753 C74,470 (+645, +0.87% on Sunday candle but −3.5% from Fri peak); RSI 57.19–60.11 (neutral, pulled back from Fri’s 67); Gold near ATH $4,879/oz; weekend retreat driven by Iran ceasefire-expiry uncertainty + profit-taking from Friday rally; ETF inflows continue structurally; $78K Feb resistance remains key level
What Happened
- —The pullback: Bitcoin gave back Friday’s Hormuz-driven surge over the weekend, retreating from $77,140 to $74,470 by Sunday’s close — a 3.5% decline that erased roughly half of the week’s gains. The Sunday candle (O73,834 H74,769 L73,753 C74,470) showed consolidation in a narrow $1,000 range, with the RSI easing from Friday’s 67 to 57–60 (neutral territory). The retreat was driven by the same ceasefire-expiry uncertainty affecting all risk assets: if the April 21–22 deadline passes without a deal, the global risk-on rotation that powered Friday’s rally reverses, and crypto — despite its “apolitical asset” narrative — is not immune to a flight-to-safety repricing. Structurally, spot Bitcoin ETF inflows continue, gold remains near its all-time high at $4,879/oz, and the broader crypto market cap holds above $3 trillion. The $78,000 February high remains the key resistance level; a decisive break above it would signal a new leg higher, while a failure to reclaim it after two attempts suggests a range-bound consolidation between $73,000 and $78,000.
Key Watch
Tue Apr 22: Ceasefire expiry → risk-on/risk-off signal. $78K resistance. ETF flow weekly data. Gold-BTC correlation. Regulatory developments (Brazil, Argentina). Mining energy costs post-Hormuz.
OUTLOOK: NEUTRAL
Regional Snapshot
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Chile & Colombia The S&P IPSA eased 0.42% Friday to 11,429.19, a mild consolidation after Thursday’s 1.44% surge. The RSI at 59–68 remains constructive. Chile is the hemisphere’s clearest beneficiary of a sustained Hormuz reopening: as a net energy importer, every dollar off the Brent price reduces consumer fuel costs, eases the central bank’s inflation calculus, and frees fiscal space. Copper continues to underpin the equity index regardless of oil direction. COLCAP fell 1.33% to 2,301.86 on Friday as Ecopetrol was hammered by the Brent crash. The RSI at 52–54 is neutral. The IMF officially resumed relations with post-Maduro Venezuela under the Rodríguez government — Georgieva confirmed dialogue after 6+ years of suspension, beginning with data collection and economic assessment. Ecuador’s 100% tariff trade war with Colombia remains unresolved. Previous Pulse editions. |
Argentina, Mexico & Region The MERVAL fell 1.19% Friday to 2,889,185.31 on the oil repricing and continued Adorni overhang. The RSI at 50–59 is neutral. TODAY (Sunday April 20), real estate agents Rucci and Trimarchi testify in the Adorni enriquecimiento ilícito investigation regarding the financing of the Caballito apartment. The April 29 congressional report — with Milei reportedly considering attending — remains the next political flashpoint. Mexico’s IPC rose 1.06% Friday to 69,825.94, benefiting from the oil-importer reversal trade as peso strength continued near 16.80–17.00. The RSI at 54–56 is neutral. AMIB consensus maintains the year-end IPC target at 72,427. Gold’s new ATH at $4,879.60/oz benefits mining equities across Chile, Peru, Colombia, and Mexico — the precious-metals trade is now a parallel story to the oil repricing, and LATAM miners are positioned on both sides. Previous Pulse editions. |
Markets at a Glance — Friday April 17 Close (+ Weekend BTC)
| Index | Close | Change | Context |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ibovespa | 195,733.51 | −0.55% | 3rd straight fall; PETR4 −7% on Brent crash; Tue = cut-off + ceasefire; RSI 64 |
| USD/BRL | 4.9771 | −0.03% | NEW CYCLE LOW; RSI 28.88 (extreme oversold); strongest since Mar 2024; structural bid |
| IPSA (Chile) | 11,429.19 | −0.42% | Mild consolidation; oil-importer benefit; RSI 59–68; copper supportive |
| COLCAP | 2,301.86 | −1.33% | Ecopetrol hammered by Brent crash; RSI 52–54; IMF-Venezuela dialogue resumed |
| IPC (Mexico) | 69,825.94 | +1.06% | Oil-importer benefit; peso firm; RSI 54–56; AMIB YE 72,427 |
| MERVAL | 2,889,185.31 | −1.19% | Oil drag + Adorni; witnesses testify today; Apr 29 congressional; RSI 50–59 |
| BTC/USD | 74,470 | −3.5%* | Weekend pullback from $77,140 Fri; ceasefire uncertainty; RSI 57–60; $78K resistance |
*BTC change measured from Fri close $77,140 to Sun close $74,470. All equity and FX data from TradingView Tier 0 charts timestamped Apr 20, 06:30–06:31 UTC (riotimesonline account) — reflecting Friday April 17 closes (equity markets closed Sat-Sun). BTC Sunday candle from Bitstamp. Bolivia from SIREPRE/Radio Fides/Infobae-EFE/ABI/Asuntos Centrales/Resumen Latinoamericano. Iran/Hormuz from Folha/Jornal de Brasília/ClubPetro/O Cafezinho/Reuters/AP. Peru from ONPE/RPP/El Comercio/Gestión/La República/Infobae/CNN en Español. Brazil from Money Times/Exame/InfoMoney/ADVFN. Argentina from APFDigital/El Cronista. Gold from DivulgarDinheiro. Previous Pulse editions.
The Week Ahead
| Date | Event | Country |
|---|---|---|
| Mon Apr 20 — TODAY | Markets open to ceasefire-week binary; Brent opening level; Adorni witnesses (Rucci + Trimarchi); Mello’s first Petrobras board meeting | Global / Arg / Brazil |
| Tue Apr 22 | CEASEFIRE EXPIRES (US-Iran) + PETROBRAS DIVIDEND CUT-OFF (B3) — the double catalyst | Global / Brazil |
| Wed Apr 23 | Petrobras ex-dividend date; Ley Hojarasca vote Argentina | Brazil / Argentina |
| Sat Apr 26 | Israel-Lebanon ceasefire expiry | Global |
| Mon-Tue Apr 28–29 | COPOM Selic decision (14.75%); Adorni congressional report Apr 29 (Milei attendance?) | Brazil / Argentina |
| ~May 15 | Peru: JNE official segunda vuelta confirmation — delayed by 4,250+ observed actas | Peru |