The Big Three
IPSA defies global sell-off, closes up 0.6% at 10,923. Santiago bucked the Wall Street downdraft as the subasta de cierre amplified afternoon buying, driven by rate-sensitive mall operators. Mallplaza surged 7.3%, Cenco Malls 4.5%, and Cencosud 3.9%, while Colombia’s Colcap (+1.8%) and Peru Select (+0.5%) also held positive.
Earnings season kicks off Tuesday with CCU, Mallplaza, and Falabella. Results from five IPSA heavyweights land this week — Enel Américas (Wednesday), Copec (Thursday), and Enel Chile (Friday) — giving the market catalysts to break out of the 10,800–10,950 range that has contained trading since mid-February.
Copper holds at US$5.77/lb as China’s Lunar New Year caps volumes. The 2026 average sits at US$5.93/lb — 45% above the same period last year. Cochilco projects US$4.95/lb for the full year, but spot prices continue to trade well above that floor on tight concentrate supply and AI-driven demand for electrical infrastructure.
Market Snapshot
| Indicator | Value | Change |
|---|---|---|
| IPSA Close | 10,923.25 | +0.63% |
| IPSA ATH | 11,721.38 | −6.8% from ATH |
| IPSA 12-Month | — | +54.9% |
| USD/CLP Close (Dow Jones) | 865.77 | +0.06% |
| CLP YTD vs USD | — | +9.4% (12m) |
| BCCh TPM | 4.50% | Held (Jan 27) |
| Copper (weekly close) | US$5.77/lb | −0.9% w/w |
| Copper 2026 Avg | US$5.93/lb | +45% YoY |
| WTI Crude | US$65.76 | −1.5% |
| Gold | US$5,168 | Record high |
| DXY | 97.56 | −0.24% |
| S&P 500 | 6,837.75 | −1.04% |
Equities & Corporate
The IPSA rose 0.63% to 10,923.25, with the subasta de cierre once again proving decisive. As Diario Financiero noted, the afternoon buying from institutional flows intensified at the bell — the same pattern that lifted the index on Friday’s session. Volumes remained below average with China still on Lunar New Year holiday, limiting Asia-side liquidity in copper and related trades.
Mall operators dominated the leaderboard. Mallplaza jumped 7.3%, Cenco Malls gained 4.5%, Cencosud added 3.9%, and Falabella rose 2.8%, all benefiting from the decline in global interest rates that increases the present value of their long-duration cash flows. CAP and CMPC also finished in the green on the commodity side, while banks were among the session’s laggards.
The earnings calendar makes this week pivotal. CCU, Mallplaza, and Falabella report Tuesday; Enel Américas on Wednesday; Empresas Copec on Thursday; and Enel Chile on Friday. Diario Financiero noted that traders have been “warming up” ahead of the results season, and the concentrated schedule could inject direction into a market that has been range-bound between 10,800 and 10,950 since mid-February.
Currency & Monetary Policy
The peso was essentially flat on Monday, with USD/CLP closing at 865.77 (+0.06%) per Dow Jones data. Over the past twelve months the peso has appreciated 9.4% against the dollar, powered by copper’s structural rally and the broader DXY decline. The currency has traded in a tight range of 860–870 through most of February.
The BCCh held its TPM at 4.50% at the January 27 meeting, its lowest level since January 2022, after a 25bps cut in December. The Consejo signaled it will evaluate next steps at the March 24 meeting alongside the new IPoM. The December IPoM projected inflation converging to the 3% target in Q1 2026, and the GPM (Monetary Policy Group) recommended holding, citing proximity to the neutral rate and persistent external risks.
Analysts at Coopeuch expect one more 25bps cut in March or April, which would take the TPM to 4.25% — possibly the floor for this cycle. This prospect underpins the rate-sensitive sectors that led Monday’s gains: lower forward rates directly boost the valuation of mall operators, utilities, and infrastructure plays that dominate the IPSA’s composition.
Technical Analysis — S&P IPSA Daily
Monday’s candle (O: 10,855.08, H: 10,936.73, L: 10,810.98, C: 10,923.25) was a constructive bullish body that closed near the session high, printing a modest recovery after last week’s losses. Price closed inside the Ichimoku cloud, between the lower boundary at 10,917 and the upper boundary at 10,940 — a neutral zone where direction is contested.
The RSI reads 46.78 / 44.88, hovering in neutral-to-bearish territory but no longer declining. The MACD remains in negative territory (−53.55 / −66.65) but the histogram has flipped to 13.10 — a positive reading that signals the bearish momentum is decelerating and the MACD line has crossed above the signal line, a potential early reversal indicator.
The 200-day SMA at 9,335 is 14.5% below, underscoring the magnitude of the 2025–2026 structural bull run. The index has corrected 6.8% from the January 28 ATH of 11,721.38 but remains within a rising channel visible on the chart since October. A daily close above 10,940 (Senkou Span A) would represent a bullish breakout above the cloud and target the 10,970 area; failure to hold 10,617 (Senkou Span B) would mark a more significant breakdown below the cloud floor.
Key Levels
| Level | Price |
|---|---|
| Resistance 3 (ATH) | 11,721 |
| Resistance 2 (Feb High) | 10,971 |
| Resistance 1 (Senkou Span A) | 10,940 |
| Current Close | 10,923 |
| Support 1 (Cloud Base) | 10,917 |
| Support 2 (Senkou Span B) | 10,617 |
| Support 3 (200-day SMA) | 9,335 |
Global Context & Commodities
Wall Street closed sharply lower as tariff uncertainty deepened. The Dow fell 1.66% to 48,804.06, the S&P 500 dropped 1.04% to 6,837.75, and the Nasdaq shed 1.13% to 22,627.27. European markets also softened, with the Euro Stoxx 50 down 0.3%, though the FTSE 100 closed flat. The Hang Seng bucked the trend with a 2.5% gain.
Copper closed the week at US$5.77/lb, down 0.9% week-on-week per Cochilco, but the 2026 YTD average of US$5.93/lb sits 45% above the same period in 2025. Cochilco projects a full-year average of US$4.95/lb, while the BCCh’s IPoM uses US$4.70 — both well below the current spot, reflecting expectations of normalization that the market has yet to deliver. The key structural drivers remain tight concentrate supply, AI-related electrical infrastructure demand, and a global refined deficit Cochilco estimates at 238,000 tonnes for 2026.
Gold surged to a record ~US$5,168/oz. WTI fell to US$65.76 (−1.5%) and Brent to US$70.40 (−1.3%) ahead of renewed US-Iran nuclear talks. The DXY dropped 0.24% to 97.56, extending the multi-month dollar weakness that continues to support EM assets and the peso. Trump’s 15% Section 122 tariffs take effect today; Chile’s direct exposure is limited given the US-Chile FTA, but second-order effects through copper demand channels bear monitoring.
Looking Ahead
The earnings avalanche starting Tuesday will be the week’s dominant local catalyst. Mallplaza and Falabella numbers will test whether the recent mall rally has fundamental support or is purely rate-driven. Copec results Thursday will provide a read on energy and forestry, while the two Enel reports bracket the week’s utility picture.
Nvidia earnings Wednesday will set the global risk tone, particularly for SQM and tech-adjacent names. The BCCh’s next TPM decision lands March 24, and the market is split on whether a 25bps cut materializes. China’s return from Lunar New Year celebrations will normalize copper trading volumes and potentially reprice the metal after a week of thin liquidity.
Verdict
The IPSA’s ability to close green while the Dow shed 1.7% speaks to Chile’s relative strength within the EM universe. The 54.9% twelve-month return, copper above US$5.70, a peso that has appreciated 9.4% against the dollar, and a central bank approaching the end of its cutting cycle all point to a fundamentally supported market. The subasta de cierre’s role in driving direction suggests institutional buyers are engaged.
The risk is that 6.8% off the ATH and an RSI in the mid-40s describe a market that has corrected but not yet found a catalyst to resume the uptrend. Earnings this week are the obvious candidate. Strong numbers from Mallplaza and Falabella could validate the sector rotation and push the IPSA above the 10,940 cloud resistance. Disappointing results would confirm that the February consolidation has more room to run.
Technically, the 10,617 Senkou Span B is the line in the sand. As long as it holds, the structural bull case — built on copper, rate cuts, pension reform flows, and a rightward political shift — remains intact. The 200-day SMA at 9,335 (14.5% below) underscores just how far this market has come. Bulls should watch for a close above 10,940; bears need 10,617 to crack.