COLCAP Surges 2.4% as Tariff Shakeup and Peso Pullback Drive Record Volume

Market Snapshot

Equities & Corporate

The COLCAP delivered its strongest single-day performance in weeks, surging 2.36% to close at 2,474.76 on Monday. The index opened sharply higher and held gains throughout the session, driven by a broad rotation into value names following the Supreme Court’s Friday ruling that invalidated IEEPA tariffs.

This is part of The Rio Times’ daily coverage of Colombian markets and Latin American financial news.

For context on regional markets, see Brazil’s Ibovespa for the same session.

Also tracking regional peers: Chile’s IPSA closed the same session.

Grupo Nutresa led the rally with a remarkable +8.14% gain, closing at COP 319,000. Corficolombiana Pf advanced 3.26% to COP 19,000, while Celsia added 0.50% to COP 4,995. On the flip side, ISA was the session’s worst performer, dropping 4.59% to COP 29,080, followed by Grupo Bolívar at −3.98% and BVC at −3.78%.

For the week beginning Feb 17, the COLCAP had gained +2.08% through Friday’s close of 2,417.81, according to Valora Analítik. Monday’s rally extended the recovery to put the index within 3.4% of its all-time high of 2,562 set on January 27. The YTD return now stands at approximately +19.7%, keeping Colombia among the top-performing equity markets globally in 2026.

Currency & Monetary Policy

The peso had a volatile session on Monday. USD/COP opened at the day’s high of COP 3,718 before gradually strengthening to a low of COP 3,681.41, ultimately settling at an average of COP 3,697.28 — about COP 6 above the TRM of COP 3,691.34. Set-FX reported USD 1.192 billion in volume across 1,350 transactions.

Bancolombia attributed the early pressure to Trump’s weekend tariff escalation and local uncertainty over Finance Minister Germán Ávila’s meeting with bank executives to discuss a proposed forced-investment decree. Corficolombiana strategist Mauricio Acevedo noted that Friday’s sharp move higher in the dollar was not replicated in Mexico or Brazil, though Chile showed a similar pattern.

BanRep’s policy rate stands at 10.25% after the surprise 100bps hike on January 30 — a move backed by four directors, while two favored a 50bps cut and one voted to hold. Governor Leonardo Villar defended the decision, stating that “maintaining purchasing power and sustainable growth sometimes requires unpopular actions.” The next meeting will be critical as markets gauge whether the hawkish stance continues amid elevated inflation expectations.

Technical Analysis — MSCI COLCAP Daily

The daily chart shows a powerful bullish candle with the index opening at 2,443.01, pushing to a high of 2,472.52, and closing near the session high at 2,468.58 (TradingView feed). The candle body consumed two prior resistance levels and broke decisively above the Ichimoku cloud’s upper boundary.

The RSI reads 63.69 on the fast line and 54.21 on the signal, both accelerating higher from neutral territory — comfortably bullish without approaching overbought. The MACD histogram remains negative at −4.35, but the signal lines (31.63/27.28) are converging toward a bullish crossover that could confirm within one to two sessions.

Price is now trading above the 200-day SMA (the blue ascending line near 1,933) and well above the Bollinger midline. The key Ichimoku levels to watch are the Tenkan-sen at 2,407 and Kijun-sen at 2,393 as immediate dynamic support. The cloud itself offers structural support around the 2,300–2,380 zone.

Key Levels

Global Context & Commodities

Wall Street suffered a sharp selloff on Monday. The S&P 500 dropped 1.04% to 6,837.75, the Dow plunged 822 points (−1.66%) to 48,804 led by IBM (−13%) and American Express (−7.3%), and the Nasdaq Composite fell 1.1%. The trigger was Trump’s Saturday announcement raising the Section 122 tariff to 15%, combined with AI displacement fears after Anthropic launched new coding tools.

Oil prices eased from six-month highs as US–Iran nuclear talks showed progress, with Brent settling near $70.40 and WTI at $65.76 — both down roughly 1% on the session. Goldman Sachs raised its Q4 2026 Brent forecast by $6 to $60, citing tighter OECD inventories. For Ecopetrol and Colombia’s fiscal picture, sustained Brent near $70 provides a meaningful tailwind.

Gold surged past $5,150 per ounce to fresh record territory, fueled by the tariff shock and structural central bank buying. The DXY weakened to 97.35, extending its decline as traders price in stagflationary risks from the new tariff regime. The weaker dollar is structurally supportive for EM currencies including the peso, though Colombia’s domestic policy uncertainty is partially offsetting that benefit.

Looking Ahead

The 15% Section 122 tariffs are now live as of midnight. Markets will price the real-world impact throughout the session, with attention on whether Colombia’s coffee and flowers sectors — exempted from the surcharge — maintain their competitive edge in the US market. Nvidia reports earnings Wednesday, a potential swing factor for global risk appetite and tech-linked EM equities.

Locally, the forced-investment decree discussion between Minister Ávila and bank presidents is the dominant risk. Any concrete move to mandate bank capital allocations could pressure financial sector stocks — particularly Cibest, Davivienda, and Grupo Bolívar — and widen the USD/COP spread. Oxford Economics warns BanRep could raise rates further to 10.50% or even 12% if inflation expectations remain unanchored, adding another layer of uncertainty for rate-sensitive names ahead of the next policy meeting.