The Big Three
The S&P/BMV IPC closed at 69,825.94 on Friday, up 730.92 points (+1.06%), in a bullish marubozu where the open was the low (69,082.21) and the close sat near the session high (69,940.85). This is the mirror image of Thursday’s sell-off: a clean reversal that reclaimed the 21-day EMA (69,825.94) and pushed price back into the upper half of the 68,500–70,000 range that has defined April. The close exactly on the 21-EMA is the technical line that matters — the same level Thursday had failed to hold. The weekly result: the IPC closed the week marginally above where it started, with the range intact.
Pemex’s fracking pivot crystallized into operational reality as the company confirmed a 66% increase in hydraulic fracturing investment at the Chicontepec Basin to MXN 4 billion for 2026. Sheinbaum, flanked by her energy minister and the Pemex CEO, indicated the administration will present a formal fracking plan following expert consultations. Pemex’s ten-year upstream plan aims to unlock roughly 64 billion barrels of oil-equivalent from shale basins, targeting 197 million barrels of crude and 303 billion cubic feet of gas by 2030. Mexico’s 75% dependence on US natural gas imports — the strategic vulnerability the Iran war exposed — is the driver. The fracking reboot is the most consequential energy policy shift since the Peña Nieto reform a decade ago.
The carry anchor holds: the peso near 17.30 with Banxico at 6.75% maintains the ~300bp differential to the Fed, while CBP tariff refunds from the IEEPA reversal approach their late-April expected timeline. BBVA Research expects Banxico to resume cutting in May with a terminal rate of 6.50% by year-end. The USMCA mid-term review formally opens July 1 — the single binary event that dominates the medium-term distribution. Pemex’s return to the farm-out model for co-investment with national and international companies, combined with the fracking expansion, signals a pragmatic shift that could ease some of the USMCA energy-access friction if framed as market opening.
01 Market Snapshot
| Indicator | Value | Change |
| S&P/BMV IPC Close | 69,825.94 | +1.06% (+730.92 pts) |
| Session Open / Low | 69,082.21 | open = low (marubozu) |
| Session High | 69,940.85 | testing 70K again |
| 21-day EMA / Close | 69,825.94 | reclaimed at close |
| Tenkan-sen | 69,575.65 | reclaimed |
| Kijun-sen | 68,980.33 | support below |
| 50-day SMA | 67,946.33 | medium-term support |
| 200-day SMA | 63,520.59 | primary trend support |
| RSI (14) | 56.14 | neutral, turning up |
| MACD / Signal | 481.02 / 293.03 | hist 187.99, expanding |
| Banxico rate | 6.75% | BBVA: May cut expected |
| USD/MXN | ~17.30 | carry anchor intact |
| USMCA review | July 1, 2026 | 75 days |
02 Equities — The Range Reasserts Itself
IPC Mexico today opens the week with the 21-day EMA reclaimed again after the S&P/BMV IPC rose 1.06% on Friday, printing a bullish marubozu that reversed Thursday’s entire −0.78% decline. This Mexico stock market report covers a session where the open was the low and the close was near the high — the cleanest bullish candle of the week and a structural signal that the 68,500–70,000 range remains intact. This is part of The Rio Times’ daily coverage of Latin American equity markets.
The pattern is now unmistakable: the IPC bounces off 68,500–69,000 and sells at 69,800–70,000. Four of the last eight sessions have been gains and four have been losses, with net movement near zero. Friday’s bullish marubozu, however, was the strongest single-day candle since the ceasefire rally — suggesting that the buying conviction at the lower end of the range is intensifying even as the selling conviction near 70,000 remains firm.
The weekly picture is a wash: the IPC opened the week at ~69,635 (Wednesday’s close) and closed Friday at 69,826 — a net gain of roughly 190 points (+0.27%). The range narrowed rather than broke. Monday’s question is binary: does the IPC finally close above 70,000, or does the rejection at the psychological wall continue?
03 Pemex’s Fracking Plan — From Committee to Investment
The fracking story accelerated through the week from policy signal to budget reality. Pemex confirmed a 66% increase in hydraulic fracturing investment at the Aceite Terciario del Golfo project in the Chicontepec Basin, from MXN 2.4 billion in 2025 to approximately MXN 4 billion in 2026. Sheinbaum told reporters on Friday that the administration will present a formal fracking plan following expert consultations, flanked by her energy minister and Pemex CEO — the highest-level institutional backing the initiative has received.
Pemex’s broader ten-year plan targets roughly 64 billion barrels of oil-equivalent from shale basins with “complex geology,” projecting an additional 197 million barrels of crude and 303 billion cubic feet of gas by 2030. El Economista, citing calculations by Lukoil based on Tamaulipas ministry data, reported that liquid hydrocarbon production could increase by 700,000 barrels per day via fracking — a transformational figure for a company whose output has fallen from 3.4 million bpd in the early 2000s to 1.6 million bpd now.
For the IPC, the fracking reboot has three implications. First, it provides a medium-term earnings catalyst for Pemex-adjacent names and the broader energy supply chain. Second, it could reduce one of the friction points in the USMCA review — US demands for energy market access are easier to satisfy if Mexico is opening its upstream. Third, Pemex’s return to the farm-out model for co-investment with international companies signals pragmatism over ideology, which credit markets have been waiting for given Pemex’s $99 billion in financial obligations.
04 The Carry Anchor and the Catalyst Calendar
The peso at ~17.30 continues to provide the structural floor. The ~300bp differential to the Fed is the single largest mechanical support for the MXN, and BBVA’s expectation that Banxico resumes cutting in May (from 6.75% to an eventual 6.50% terminal) implies the differential narrows only gradually. Mexico remains the US’s largest trading partner at 15.5% of total trade flows — a structural anchor that no tariff can easily undo.
The near-term catalyst calendar is tightening: CBP tariff refunds from the IEEPA reversal are expected by late April, providing a visible flow positive for nearshoring exporters. The Section 122 surcharge (10% on non-USMCA goods, pending increase to 15%) remains on the calendar with a July expiry date — if it lapses, it is materially bullish for nearshoring names. The June 11 World Cup kickoff approaches with airports (GAP, OMA, ASUR) and consumer names (Walmex, Femsa) as the direct beneficiaries of Hacienda’s projection of 5 million additional tourists.
05 Technical Analysis — S&P/BMV IPC Daily
From the chart: O:69,082.21, H:69,940.85, L:69,082.21, C:69,825.94 (+730.92, +1.06%). Friday’s candle is a bullish marubozu — open equals low, virtually no lower wick, close near the high — the strongest bullish signal in candle analysis and the cleanest directional bar since the ceasefire rally. The close at 69,825.94 sits exactly on the 21-day EMA, reclaiming the level that Thursday had failed to hold.
RSI at 56.14 with signal at 54.93 is neutral and turning up — no overbought constraint and room to extend. MACD at 481.02 with signal at 293.03 (histogram 187.99) is positive and expanding — the strongest MACD profile since the early-April rally. The 70,000 psychological level remains the immediate resistance; the upper Bollinger Band at 71,939 is the upside target if 70,000 breaks. Support stacks at 69,575 (Tenkan-sen), 68,980 (Kijun-sen), 68,598 (cloud edge), and 67,946 (50-day SMA).
06 Key Levels
| Level | S&P/BMV IPC |
| Upper Bollinger Band | 71,939.12 |
| Psychological resistance | 70,000 |
| Session High (Fri) | 69,940.85 |
| Friday Close / 21-day EMA | 69,825.94 |
| Tenkan-sen | 69,575.65 |
| Kijun-sen | 68,980.33 |
| Cloud edge (Senkou A) | 68,598.41 |
| Cloud bottom / 68K zone | 68,099.15 |
| 50-day SMA | 67,946.33 |
| 200-day SMA | 63,520.59 |
07 Looking Ahead
Monday’s session is the latest test of the 70,000 wall. Friday’s high at 69,941 came within 60 points. A close above 70,000 would break the range that has defined all of April and open the upper Bollinger Band at 71,939 as the next target — a potential move of +2,100 points (+3%). A reversal below 69,575 (Tenkan-sen) would signal Friday’s marubozu was another failed breakout attempt and re-establish the sell-at-70K regime.
The Pemex fracking plan presentation — timing to be confirmed this month — is the most important domestic catalyst. Any detail on private-sector farm-out terms, environmental safeguards, and production targets would be directly market-moving for energy names. The CBP refund timeline (late April) and the May Banxico meeting (expected 25bp cut) are the near-term flow and policy catalysts respectively.
Key dates: Late April — CBP IEEPA tariff refunds to exporters. May — Banxico decision (BBVA: cut to 6.50% by year-end). June 11 — FIFA World Cup kickoff. July 1 — USMCA mid-term review formal opening.
08 Verdict
Friday was the strongest bullish session since the ceasefire rally: a perfect marubozu that reclaimed the 21-EMA and pushed the IPC to within 60 points of 70,000. Pemex’s fracking investment confirmation — a 66% increase to MXN 4 billion — and the broader shale plan targeting 64 billion barrels of oil-equivalent is the kind of structural narrative shift that could resolve the 68,500–70,000 range to the upside. The energy-policy pragmatism that fracking represents also eases one of the USMCA review friction points, making the July review marginally less risky for the bilateral relationship.
Bias: Constructive — testing the 70,000 ceiling. The 21-EMA reclaim at 69,826 is the line. A close above 70,000 on Monday is the break the bulls need — it would resolve the April range to the upside and target 71,939 (upper Bollinger Band). A rejection below 69,575 (Tenkan-sen) resets to the range midpoint. The carry anchor at 17.30, the expanding MACD, and the approaching catalyst calendar (CBP refunds, Banxico cut, World Cup) all favor the upside resolution — but the IPC has rejected 70,000 on every attempt this month. Monday is the test.
Related coverage:
Previous IPC report: IPC Falls 0.78% as Fracking Pivot Stuns
Tortilla and war inflation: From Hormuz to the Tortillería: How the Iran War Is Raising Mexican Food Prices
Economy guide: Mexico Economy 2026: GDP, Nearshoring, Banxico and the Peso
Regional markets: Latin American Pulse — Daily Markets Brief
This report is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Always consult a licensed financial advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Published by The Rio Times.