The Big Three
The S&P/BMV IPC fell 0.30% to 68,631.16 on Thursday, as the MACD bearish cross confirmed with a histogram of −40.86 — the first negative MACD reading since the ceasefire rally began in late March. The index opened at 68,826, pushed to a session high of 69,415.56 — the third consecutive morning bounce attempt — then faded to 68,512 before closing at 68,631 on the Ichimoku cloud edge. The MACD line at 354.52 has now crossed below the signal at 313.66. The RSI signal at 49.37 has crossed below 50. Both composite sell indicators are confirmed on the same session. The IPC has not produced a simultaneous MACD cross and RSI signal below 50 since the February correction.
INEGI’s April first-half inflation reading came in at 4.53% year-on-year — marginally below March’s 4.55% — with core inflation softer and decelerating, supporting the case for a Banxico rate cut at the June meeting. This is the last inflation print before the June decision window opens. The headline remains above Banxico’s 3% target for the 141st consecutive fortnight, but the direction is downward: the 4.53% reading, the cooling core, and BBVA’s terminal-rate call of 6.50% by year-end all argue that the easing cycle continues. Hacienda’s Pre-Criterios projects Banxico at 6.30% year-end, implying three more 25bp cuts. The inflation data is the first genuinely positive catalyst for the IPC since the false 70K breakout.
The CBP IEEPA tariff refunds — $166 billion collected from 330,000 importers across 53 million entries — are entering the final stretch of the late-April refund timeline. CBP told the Court of International Trade it needs 45 days to build automated refund functionality into the ACE system. The court paused its immediate-compliance directive while CBP builds the process, with initial refunds expected by late April 2026. For the IPC’s industrial and automotive heavyweights, the refund timeline is a one-time cash recovery event that, if confirmed this week or next, would be the demand-side catalyst the market needs to absorb the false-breakout damage above 70,000.
01 Market Snapshot
| Indicator | Value | Change |
| S&P/BMV IPC Close | 68,631.16 | −0.30% (−205.76 pts) |
| Session High | 69,415.56 | 3rd morning bounce, faded |
| Session Low | 68,511.72 | cloud interior |
| Close / Cloud edge | 68,631 / 68,631 | exactly on it |
| 21-day EMA (resistance) | 68,943.18 | overhead |
| MACD histogram (BEARISH CROSS) | −40.86 | first negative since March |
| RSI (14) / Signal | 54.82 / 49.37 | signal below 50 — bearish |
| 50-day SMA | 67,946.33 | 1.0% below close |
| April CPI (1st half, INEGI) | 4.53% YoY | eased from 4.55% |
| Banxico rate | 6.75% | June cut supported by data |
02 Equities — The Composite Sell Signal
IPC Mexico today enters Friday’s session with the MACD bearish cross confirmed after the S&P/BMV IPC fell 0.30% on Thursday. This Mexico stock market report covers the session that completed the technical deterioration: the MACD histogram’s first negative print (−40.86) since the ceasefire rally, combined with the RSI signal crossing below 50 (49.37), produces the composite sell signal the prior three reports tracked in real time (histogram 182→85→18→−41). This is part of The Rio Times’ daily coverage of Latin American equity markets.
The session pattern has become repetitive and telling: morning bounce to 69,415 (the third consecutive attempt), fade through the afternoon, close at 68,631 near the session low. The morning bounces are getting weaker: Tuesday’s high was 70,449, Wednesday’s was 69,583, Thursday’s was 69,416. Each successive bounce fails lower. The IPC is making lower highs while closing at similar levels — the descending-triangle compression that typically resolves with a break of the base. The cloud edge at 68,631 is that base. A close below it on Friday would push the IPC into the cloud and target the 50-day SMA at 67,946.
The counterpoint — and it is significant — is the inflation data. INEGI’s April first-half CPI at 4.53% (down from 4.55%) with softening core confirms the disinflation trend that Banxico needs to resume cutting. The June decision window is now open with data support. A confirmed rate cut at the June meeting would be the fundamental catalyst the IPC needs to overcome the false-break damage above 70,000. The technical picture is bearish; the macro picture is constructive. Friday and the coming week determine which one dominates.
03 CPI Eases, CBP Refunds Approach
The April first-half inflation reading of 4.53% year-on-year — published by INEGI on April 23 — is the last data point before Banxico‘s June decision window opens. Headline inflation remains above the 3% target for the 141st consecutive fortnight, but the direction is what matters: headline eased, core decelerated, and the agricultural price spike that drove March’s reading appears to be a transitory supply-side shock. BBVA Research expects a cut at the May meeting; Hacienda’s Pre-Criterios projects a terminal rate of 6.30% by year-end (three more 25bp cuts). The inflation print keeps both paths alive.
The CBP IEEPA tariff refunds remain the most important flow event on the horizon. The Court of International Trade ordered CBP to refund $166 billion collected from 330,000 importers. CBP is building the automated refund functionality, with initial refunds expected by late April. Any confirmed refund within the coming days would be directly positive for the industrial and automotive names that dominate the IPC. The combination of a Banxico cut and CBP refunds — both catalysts expected within the next four to six weeks — is the double-barreled fundamental trigger that could override the MACD bearish cross.
04 Technical Analysis — S&P/BMV IPC Daily
From the chart: O:68,825.67, H:69,415.56, L:68,511.72, C:68,631.16 (−205.76, −0.30%). Thursday’s candle has a small body with an upper wick (the failed morning bounce) and a close in the lower third — the continuation pattern of a market making lower highs. The close at 68,631 sits exactly on the cloud edge — the level that defines whether the IPC remains above or enters the cloud.
MACD at 354.52 with signal at 313.66 (histogram −40.86) has confirmed the bearish cross. The histogram trajectory (182→85→18→−41) shows the momentum regime flip completing over four sessions. RSI at 54.82 with signal at 49.37 has the signal below 50 — confirming the bearish regime on both indicators simultaneously. The descending-high pattern (70,449 → 69,583 → 69,416) combined with the flat base at 68,631 creates a descending triangle that resolves with a break of the base — targeting 67,946 (50-day SMA) on the downside.
05 Key Levels
| Level | S&P/BMV IPC |
| 70,000 (reinforced ceiling) | 70,000 |
| 21-day EMA (resistance) | 68,943.18 |
| Tenkan-sen (resistance) | 68,909.39 |
| Thursday Close / Cloud edge | 68,631.16 |
| Cloud bottom | 68,490.77 |
| 50-day SMA | 67,946.33 |
| 67,501 (Kijun deeper area) | 67,501.40 |
| Lower Bollinger Band | 66,877.98 |
| 200-day SMA | 63,742.25 |
06 Looking Ahead
Friday is the session that determines whether the cloud edge holds or breaks. The descending-triangle pattern (lower highs at 70,449→69,583→69,416 with a flat base at 68,631) resolves with a direction: a hold at 68,631 and a bounce toward 68,909 (Tenkan) would begin the base-building process. A break below 68,490 (cloud bottom) would confirm the descending triangle’s bearish resolution and target 67,946 (50-day SMA) — a further 1.0% decline.
The inflation print at 4.53% with softening core provides the macro counterargument to the technical sell signal. A Banxico cut at the May/June meeting would override the MACD’s bearish cross. The CBP refunds — if announced this week — would provide the demand-side catalyst. The IPC’s structural position (7.7% YTD, 10% earnings growth, nearshoring FDI, World Cup, USMCA) remains intact.
Key dates: Late April — CBP IEEPA refunds ($166B). May/June — Banxico decision (CPI supports cut). June 11 — World Cup kickoff. July 1 — USMCA mid-term review.
07 Verdict
Thursday confirmed the composite sell signal. The MACD bearish cross (histogram −40.86) and the RSI signal below 50 (49.37) are both active for the first time since the ceasefire rally — the technical regime has formally flipped from bullish to bearish. The descending-triangle pattern with lower highs and a flat base at the cloud edge (68,631) is the setup for a directional resolution on Friday. But the April CPI at 4.53% with softening core is the first genuinely positive fundamental catalyst since the false 70K breakout — and the CBP refunds approaching late April add a second. The IPC is in the rare position of confirmed bearish technicals meeting constructive fundamentals.
Bias: Bearish technically, constructive fundamentally — the cloud edge decides. The 68,631 (cloud edge) is the line. A hold and bounce begins the repair. A break targets 67,946 (50-day SMA). The MACD cross and RSI signal say sell; the April CPI and CBP refunds say patience. The IPC needs the fundamental catalysts to arrive within the next two weeks to prevent the technical deterioration from deepening. Banxico + CBP = the double-barreled trigger that can override the MACD. Until one of them fires, the technical bias is down.
Related coverage:
April inflation: Mexico’s April Inflation Supports Case for Banxico Cut
False break: IPC Crashes 1.82% Below 70K in False Breakout
Tariff guide: Mexico Economy 2026: GDP, Nearshoring, Banxico and the Peso
LatAm markets: Latin America Stock Markets 2026: Complete Guide
This report is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Always consult a licensed financial advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Published by The Rio Times.